The Fairfax 2011 predictions
January 1st, 2011 at 12:36 pm by David FarrarThey are here:
1 National will form a government after the November 26 election. (Note the dangerously specific date).
Agree, on date and outcome.
2 Botany will be a Clayton’s by-election and we don’t mean Cosgrove. National’s candidate will be anointed and Labour will hardly bother to campaign, preferring to keep its cash in the bank for the election.
Not so sure. By-elections can be un-predictable for a Government.
3 Judith Collins will become defence minister after the retirement of Wayne Mapp. Without tanks she could be a useful addition to our arsenal.
Very possible.
4 Mercurial NZ First leader Winston Peters will stand in an inner-Auckland seat to maximise coverage of his bid to return to Parliament. Possibly Epsom, but more likely Tamaki, where he can mobilise any remnants of Sir Robert Muldoon’s “Rob’s Mob” voters and cash in on sitting MP Allan Peachey’s low profile.
I think Tamaki is more likely than Epsom. His old seat of Hunua can’t be ruled out though. He won’t win an electorate though.
5 The Maori Party will not improve its current tally of five seats – a punt.
Probably not, unless Parekura retires then maybe pick that up.
6 MMP will survive the referendum, meaning a second one will not be necessary. But there will be a clamour to change some of the existing features of MMP.
I agree, unless the Government has its coalition partners disintegrate in 2011.
7 Labour president Andrew Little will not win New Plymouth, but will get into Parliament on the list.
I won’t make a prediction here on New Plymouth, except to observe that for Andrew to win he will need around 20% of National party voters to give him their electorate vote. I agree Andrew will be in Parliament regardless of the New Plymouth outcome.
8 Labour will campaign on a new top tax rate on income above $120,000 a year.
Yep – the starting rate may vary but will be at least $100k. The return of Cullen’s rich prick tax.
9 The Government’s popularity will drop mid-year as the rising cost of living, slow economic recovery and cuts in public spending usher in a mild winter of discontent.
It is inevitable that poll ratings of mid 50s will not translate into an election result.
10 Labour leader Phil Goff will survive till the election, but not long after.
By the end of 2012 there will be a new leader – David Cunliffe
11 Kris Faafoi’s majority in Mana will rebound in line with Labour’s traditional dominance in the seat.
I don’t think it will rebound as much as people think.
12 The Greens will beat their 6.72 per cent share of the vote from 2008 and bring in at least one fresh female face.
Probably yeah.
13 National will campaign on partial listings of minority stakes in some state assets including some of the bigger SOEs.
Hope so.
14 Steven Joyce will take over the education portfolio.
After the 2011 election, could well be.
15 The Maori Party will hold its nose and see the new foreshore and seabed law into force despite Hone Harawira’s opposition.
They’ll be irrelevant if they decide to stay with the status quo.
16 Georgina te Heu Heu and Sandra Goudie will signal an end to their political careers.
Would be surpised if either stand in 2011
17 This has been our hardest pick but on balance we think Rodney Hide will hold on to ACT’s Epsom lifeline – though we say so with our heart in our mouth given the signals from even Mr Hide’s Right-wing supporters that they are not convinced the souffle can rise twice.
I think he will, but it will depend on ACT having its shit together enough that people think they will get three or four MPs at least, who can work together.
18 Revenue Minister and UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne will finally realise his haircut is his biggest electoral liability and change it – or even admit it is a hairpiece.
Ha – never.
19 Another senior Labour MP will announce they are bailing out of politics at the next election – and unlike the retirement of George Hawkins and Pete Hodgson, this one will be a surprise.
Parekura would not be a surprise. Perhaps they mean Mallard?
20 John Key will come back from “kicking the tyres” during his Hawaiian holiday and declare himself “relaxed” about his chances in election year.
Of course.
Related posts:
- Fairfax’s 2011 predictions
- Scoring the Fairfax 2010 predictions
- Marginal Seat deals
- 20 Dominion Post political predictions
January 1st, 2011 at 1:30 pm
This is only Sandra Goudie’s third tierm, and she has a good majority. Cabinet is still mostly made up MPs who came in under Bolger. Goudie was given the chairmanship of an important Committee; surely a promotion is on the cards in the next re-shuffle?
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 1:33 pm
In 2011 I predict Hulun will be fired from her UN job for just being a complete Hulun (see they’re not dumb in NY like we are).
She will return to Auckland with great fanfare on arrival, with a band playing. The next day Goff will announce his retirement and Hulun will proclaim she’s stepping in “to save the party.” She’ll appoint Chris Carter as Deputy Leader and buy him a nice hearth rug on which he can curl up during those late night plotting sessions.
I have other predictions as well if anyone wants them, I’ve been waiting for ipredict to open the stock but so far, not a whisper. What’s the matter with them.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 1:58 pm
I laughed when I read that a new tax will apply to income above $120,000.
Will all Labour MP’s be able to pledge that they are not in any way minimising their exposure to this tax rate through the use of Trusts?
It makes Stuart Nash’s posts on this topic and tax avoidance on Red Alert ring pretty hollow.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 2:36 pm
David, at times you may be a touch close to politicians, we the punters do not trust them with electoral systems, give the sods a chance and Labour and the Nats would have a system of nine years each in succession.
Speak to some real Maori and no Henare does not cut the mustard, we may be slow but even we can recognise a two class system of land ownership.
Vote:If the so called leaders of the Maori party push this through they will be gone.
January 1st, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Speak to some real Maori and no Henare does not cut the mustard
grumpy what are you saying, that Maori won’t buy this bill? The choice then is the status quo. There is no third choice.
If this is the deciding issue for any Maori then if they have any integrity they’ll be voting ACT because that’s the only repeat only party that’s consistently said let the courts decide, which is your ideal solution right? Even the Greens by supporting Liarbore’s act abandoned their Maori so-called “brethren.”
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 3:57 pm
shit I hope the Greens don’t get another MP .. the ones they have now are a nightmare.
Vote:Horomia is saying less and less in Parliament and is becoming a dead weight, and what a weight.
Can’t see daffy leaving but maybe he wants to return to teaching as he is an expert on all things educational
$120,000 is too high for the Labour blood suckers, I say $100k, $110k max
Little will want gaffe to hang on until the election, if they lose again, as they should, he will take over, not Silent T UNLESS Silent T offers him the deputy job
We are all Helen’d out .. no more.
January 1st, 2011 at 4:13 pm
@ jaba – you can guarantee that the Labour high tax rate will kick in at $1pa over what a back-bench MP earns
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 4:34 pm
There’s nothing remotely fresh about the faces of the wimmin of the Khmer Vert.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Oh can I add another prediction:
Tapu Misa, Noelle “Plagiarist” McCarthy, Brian Rudman and Finlay McDonald will continue to write limp dick, pitiful, big-government loving articles all year.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 4:47 pm
how about Citizen A to replace Q&A .. or The Nation if Plunket doesn’t transfer his radio balls over to TV
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 4:51 pm
I think the MMP referendum will be a close call. I do not believe MMP will survive. Quite good odds on ipredict.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Little will want gaffe to hang on until the election, if they lose again, as they should, he will take over, not Silent T UNLESS Silent T offers him the deputy job
jaba there’s no way Little can become leader a few months after he’s elected. No way. This is why it has to be and always was Silent-T, at least since Jones self-immolated. What a shame. Wasn’t that sad. It was terrible. I wonder if Hulun had been in charge at the time, what would have happened to Shane then? Now there’s a thought, or not. Brrrrr.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 5:01 pm
maybe Helen would have supplied Shane with the pop-corn
Vote:I understand no-one in Labour likes Silent T so it will be interesting who his backers will be and it seems the non union MP’s are getting touchy with Little so happy time ahead
January 1st, 2011 at 5:18 pm
21. Brian Rudman’s pathetic love affair with Len “B-Dawg” Brown will not end.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 5:32 pm
‘I understand no-one in Labour likes Silent T so it will be interesting who his backers will be …’
Yes no-one out in the ‘real labour’ land will want that detached liberal elitist twat as leader of the Liarbores. Isn’t this the guy who criticised this government for not doing enough to stop trust and tax rorts, in their first two years in power? When it was pointed out (on ed alert) that he has an asset protected trust for his Herne Bay house (Herne Bay avg. value $2million) and that he did nothing to stop the rorts while he was Deputy Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Finance & Expenditure Committee in the 9 year labour-led governmemnt, he ran for the hills.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 5:34 pm
I understand no-one in Labour likes Silent T so it will be interesting who his backers will be…
Yes this doesn’t surprise me, jaba. I have a sense that the more one sees of Silent-T the less one likes him, which is a rather unfortunate trait in a person whose mission in life is to be even more popular than he is already.
However in the peculiar Liarbore Constitution isn’t it the party who elects
Vote:Der FuhrerThe Leader and those party loyalists only ever act on Head Office orders from past behaviour in this peculiar charade, isn’t that right? So you’d think even Silent-T will be a shoe-in for I understand he’s quite hard on his sub-ordinates, as one would expect from such a Silent-T. In other words, he’ll run a tight ship, if nothing else.January 1st, 2011 at 5:35 pm
reid,
I know conventional wisdom is against the meteoric rise for Little, however the landscape will have changed a great deal if Labour tank in the election. I wouldn’t rule out him being elevated quickly as “the great redeemer” to bring the party back to it’s roots.
I don’t think Cunliffe has any show at all unless he can roll Goff before the election – he might, just might then be able to cling to the job for a bit longer on the premise that the game was lost before he rolled Goff and it was a damage limitation exercise. Somewhat of a poisoned chalice however.
If Goff does take them to a loss at the election and Little has to bide his time for a while longer, then what of the possibility that Grant Robertson takes the leadership from Goff?
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 5:36 pm
“he ran for the hills.”
Correction axeman, the pathetic excuse for a human being ran for his pills.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 6:15 pm
No reid Maori will not buy this double standards.
Vote ACT LOL, they do not believe now that the darker shade of pale types should have the right to go to the high court if the law was taken back to 2003 over the Foreshore.
Hmm, ACT go on about property rights, for whom ?
I myself would prefer that ALL the foreshore was in crown hands, just grab it back from the owners that own it.Compensation sure, the same amount hories got on a per capita basis, no more than $5000 each.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 6:25 pm
Vote ACT LOL, they do not believe now that the darker shade of pale types should have the right to go to the high court if the law was taken back to 2003 over the Foreshore.
That’s been ACT’s policy since day one grumpy. Let the courts decide. That’s what they said then and they still say that.
I don’t think Cunliffe has any show at all unless he can roll Goff before the election
bhudson, Silent-T will wait till afterward to do it. Little will then be in the Caucus, serving his first term. I currently predict he’ll do it just before Christmas 2011, to give himself good stories in the 2012 New Year’s Sunday papers. That’s what I’d do. Robertson is a player but similarly, not yet seasoned. Look Key is an extremely quick study and politics is a hard job and its taken him quite awhile to come up to speed and he hasn’t yet achieved it in quite a few important areas, much to my distress. I don’t think Little and Robertson are any different, ability-wise.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 6:28 pm
“the same amount hories got on a per capita basis, no more than $5000 each”
But hori I heard our local tribe swindler boasting that he has gathered $5 million since the rort started. Not bad for a sacked freezing worker. Eh Rick T you scum of earth dog breath has Mark S still got a P problem?!
Vote:What a sick country.
January 1st, 2011 at 7:33 pm
If Little only gets in on the list as predicted then he shouldn’t have a show of fast tracking into Labour leadership. Even if he wins New Plymouth he needs to do some time before being considered – and then it will still depend on how far Labour are willing to embrace the union vote.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 7:46 pm
we saw with poor old George that Little is a bully and he targeted the leadership role YEARS ago .. if I was a Labour MP (god forbid) and I wasn’t a fan of Little, I would be very afraid
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Pete it’s the intimate connection between the union and the Rainbow/Sisterhood factions thats the driving issue here. They’re all joined at the hip. They pretend to stand apart but they nevertheless all work together and the competing dynamic is what Goff represents – the hated right.
It’s almost comedic. Goff. Right.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 7:56 pm
5 The Maori Party will not improve its current tally of five seats – a punt.
I’m predicting the Maori Party will pick up Hauraki-Waikato. Ikaroa-Rawhiti will remain Labour if Parekura stays on next year.
7 Labour president Andrew Little will not win New Plymouth, but will get into Parliament on the list.
The odds on ipredict for Andrew Little winning New Plymouth are ridiculous, but I do think it’s going to be a coin-toss there. Labour will be campaigning hard in that seat, Little’s future aspirations are in the balance.
11 Kris Faafoi’s majority in Mana will rebound in line with Labour’s traditional dominance in the seat.
The majority will be around 2500-3000.
17 This has been our hardest pick but on balance we think Rodney Hide will hold on to ACT’s Epsom lifeline – though we say so with our heart in our mouth given the signals from even Mr Hide’s Right-wing supporters that they are not convinced the souffle can rise twice.
I think he will, although with a greatly reduced majority, maybe a swing against him of 10,000 votes or so.
Surprised they’re not willing to call whether or not Winston Peters or Peter Dunne will make it back in parliament.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 8:24 pm
I predict that Winston Peters will not be paying any of the some $158k he stole from us.
I predict that Kiwirail’s trading figures will continue to be dire, casting further doubt (as it was ever needed) that the price paid was
ridiculous, and in fact very dodgy looking indeed. especially when you look at the assumed debt not picked up in DD. Then the treats thrown at Toll to close the deal.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 8:26 pm
What will National elections policies be- will they have any? Realising future dividends via share offerings of electricity companies hardly sounds like a winning election manifesto.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Why are people assuming that Andrew Little wants to be the next leader of the Labour Party? Labour is going to lose in 2014 as well, whoever the leader is, so far better to wait until 2015 and lead Labour into the 2017 election, by which time people might be starting to get tired of National, and Key might have retired, giving Labour a sniff.
This is why Little did not enter Parliament in 08: the danger was that all the other Labour MPs would recognise that the sun shone out of his arse too quickly and force him into the leadership too soon. Once you lose an election as leader some of the gloss comes off, and he might not then get the worship he deserves.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 9:36 pm
This is why Little did not enter Parliament in 08: the danger was that all the other Labour MPs would recognise that the sun shone out of his arse too quickly and force him into the leadership too soon. Once you lose an election as leader some of the gloss comes off, and he might not then get the worship he deserves.
I imagine that’s the precise calculation they made back then, s.russell. There was probably a small ceremony involved as well.
Vote:January 1st, 2011 at 10:20 pm
If Rodney Hide cannot return to his mongrel days as the great discloser, then I reckon he’s fucked and so may be National.
Rodney, please grow more hair, do not talk about dancing or new fatherhood, weight loss, dreams or journies of any kind.
You must not be a metrosexual; that “look” has been killing you in Epsom for ages.
You don’t need to start shooting pigs in the Waiweras, just show us some old Hide.
Vote:You might be surprised by how your erm, past unwiseness might be forgiven if you showed us some real political balls.
What have you got to lose?
January 2nd, 2011 at 7:20 am
Surely Rob’s Mob are all dead by now. If not, they ought to be.
I predict that Peters will not hold any public meetings. He daren’t. It will be by invitation only and as per he will rely on the media for his pubilicity.
What’s the betting that the dodgy prick will get “debate” time on the box while remaining within the margin of error.
Vote:January 2nd, 2011 at 7:25 am
Talking about predictions, the wise, successful, and healthy Matt McCarten attempts to divine the future:
Vote:http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10697428
January 2nd, 2011 at 7:38 am
So why this dangerous fixation with Winston Raymond Peters, retired of no fixed abode?
* He’s old and come the election he will be troughing it with NZ Superannuation (along with his Parliamentary pension)
* He’s been there and done that and failed. Rivals Roger Douglas as yesterday’s man
* He stole $157k from us and won’t pay in back
* He has a love affair with secret Trusts especially where he is the main beneficiary
* He irons his sox (kinky)
* He is not and never has been a team player (and that’s just with the Winston First Party)
* He’s pretty good at throwing his toys out of the cot
* He’s intellectually lazy and prefers a good single malt over doing the hard yards
* He’s the ultimate populist looking for a story (never mind the quality, feel the width)
* He’s good at fooling a lot of the people some of the time and especially the remnants of Rob’s Mob
So, to answer the question. The Media love him. He sells copy … and that, for them, is the bottom line. Sad.
Vote:January 2nd, 2011 at 7:40 am
He prefers a good single malt over doing the hard yards
Vote:Nothing beats single malt, so hey, what’s wrong with that?
January 2nd, 2011 at 8:08 am
Ross Miller you missed the worse crime of all, going back a bit when Peters was playing rugby the bugger wore those poofy English etyle shorts with pockets.
Vote:I’m bloody sure he had a comb on the field with him, then again a rugby backs chances of being gay are high.
January 2nd, 2011 at 10:38 am
Thank you grumpyoldhori for that (the comb bit rings true but the chances of WRP being ‘Gay’ probably rank alongside Phil Goff being our next PM). On the matter of sport and if I recall correctly WRP, being the font of all knowledge, offered his services to the Kiwi League team prior to an Aust/NZ Test to assist with their team building. They accepted the offer.
It is a matter of public record that the Kiwis went on to receive a drubbing. Some team builder not and a further example of ego over substance.
Vote:January 2nd, 2011 at 10:54 am
I agree with S.Russell regarding why Little pulled the pin on becoming an MP in 2008. He saw the writing on the wall in 2005-06 and then along came the Williams melt down and an alternative opening appeared.
Vote:I got 2 single malts for Xmas so there is something I agree with peters on
January 2nd, 2011 at 3:14 pm
“Jimbob (253) Says:
January 1st, 2011 at 4:51 pm
I think the MMP referendum will be a close call. I do not believe MMP will survive. Quite good odds on ipredict.”
It’s possible it could be close on the first vote, but even if MMP is defeated there, it will almost certainly win on the second vote by virtue of the anti-MMP being split amongst FPP, SM and STV.
Vote:January 4th, 2011 at 10:02 am
Unless Act get their shit together and national start to deregulate and severly cut spending I’m going to protest vote for winston. I know hes shit but no politician currently in power wants him there so maybe they will take some positive measures to prevent his return.
Vote: