Mubarak to say he goes today
February 2nd, 2011 at 8:15 am by David FarrarStuff reports:
Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak is to announce he will step down at the next election, according to reports.
Mubarak, the focus of millions of protesting Egyptians, would make the announcement in a speech today, reported Al Arabiya TV.
At least one million people have rallied across Egypt clamouring for Mubarak to give up power, piling pressure on a leader who has towered over Middle East politics for 30 years to make way for a new era of democracy in the Arab nation.
Cairo’s Tahrir (Liberation) Square was jammed with people ranging from lawyers and doctors to students and jobless poor, the crowd spilling into surrounding streets.
Two dictators toppled in a month is almost a trend. In Jordan, the King has sacked his Government to try and placate protesters – will that be enough?
In terms of Egypt, the focus will be on who serves as interim President, and once elections are held, which parties form the Government.
The military, which has run Egypt since it toppled King Farouk in 1952, will be the key player in deciding who replaces him. Analysts expect it to retain significant power while introducing enough reforms to defuse the protests.
Armed forces chief of staff Sami Enan could be an acceptable leader, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood said.
Enan, who has good ties with Washington, was a liberal who could be seen as suitable by the nascent opposition coalition, prominent overseas cleric Kamel El-Helbawy told Reuters.
“He can be the future man of Egypt,” Helbawy said. “The people do not know him (as corrupt).”
A liberal with good ties to Washington sounds pretty good to me.
Tags: Egypt
February 2nd, 2011 at 8:19 am
Good to see you’re so excited about this DPF.
How do you feel about the Muslim Brotherhood getting cosy with the army in their play for power in an effort to create Iran V2.0 because the MB isn’t really a “liberal” organisation as we know it.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 8:35 am
The Yanks seem to be adopting the approach of letting the Egyptians decide their own fate and choose their own leaders. when the yanks and the brits attempted to keep the shah in power in Iran, all those years ago all it did was (i) breed creatures such as Khomeni and (ii) the true politics of hate as exemplified by radical islam.
Vote:Giving the nation the ability to make a choice may mean that radicalisation will be avoided.
I’m interested in seeing what happens in Syria and Algeria.
February 2nd, 2011 at 8:35 am
…………….Armed forces chief of staff Sami Enan could be an acceptable leader, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood said…………………prominent overseas cleric Kamel El-Helbawy……
Until elections are held………………….yeah right
Yes this will will go well. Middle east and democracy now that a oxymoron.
Good luck
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 8:40 am
The comparison of EG/M.East now with the European revolutions of the mid to late 19th C are interesting. The results of those movements was WWI & WW2 within 50 years. We are seeing a domino effect now with the ‘fire’ spreading from Africa (Tuni & EG) to Jordan. It is rapidly becoming a pan-Islamic power shift. Radical consequences for world economies (oil prices alone is a huge factor).
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 8:45 am
The vile fundamentalists prepare for war.
Muslim Brotherhood: ‘Prepare Egyptians for war with Israel’
A leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt told the Arabic-language Iranian news network Al-Alam on Monday that he would like to see the Egyptian people prepare for war against Israel, according to the Hebrew-language business newspaper Calcalist.
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:09 am
We shouldn’t allow any non-democratic country to strive for democracy in case the worst outcome may happen. Only good white christian countries deserve democracy. Best to keep the rest in their inferior places.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:28 am
Didn’t middle east democracy end up with Hamas in power? That’s worked well. One can only hope but I suspect that, similar to Turkey, whether Egypt has a relatively secular government or is taken over by the nutty fundies will be heavily dependant on the military.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:29 am
DPF said: A liberal with good ties to Washington sounds pretty good to me.
- is that a classical liberal or a modern liberal?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:35 am
Good for the Egyptians.
All the wannabe hawks muttering darkly about the Muslim Brotherhood and that the US should be supporting Mubarak, are completely missing the point. The people are pissed off and have had enough. The dictatorship game is over. And it’s more than a little disingenuous to say the Egyptians have no capacity for liberal democracy, when they’ve never really had it.
How would we feel if the US decided Helen Clark was a goodun and decided to keep her around? For our own good, of course. Would you join the NZ Brotherhood?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:42 am
Malcolm, what do the protesters in Egypt think they are going to get?
jobs?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:52 am
Properly liberal, or just liberal for a Muslim religious leader?
Has any other Arab country thrown out an old regime and successfully gained democracy in its place?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 9:52 am
Celeb, change. Something better. Anything better. They’re not sitting around pontificating. What did the East Germans think they were going to get – mass unemployment and depression? Probably not, but I doubt they would want to go back, either.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:17 am
Syria could be next with dissidents calling for a day of rage.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:22 am
Too late, my love, too late.
Perhaps twenty years ago, maybe even ten years ago. Certainly in the wake of George Bush’s 2003 call for the US and the West to walk away from the cold-blooded, real-politik of supporting dictators with the illusion of “stability”. Back then, like Gadaffi with his nuclear weapons program, Mubarak realised the US was serious, and began opening the door of freedom a little wider. But it was just a passing phase, as it became clear that nobody else in the West would heed Bush, and Mubarak went back to what had always worked.
But not now.
Now it’s the first Russian revolution of 1917 and the incoherence of a Kerensky government. Now it’s the Iranian revolution and the vacuum of people who never thought beyond the revolution. All it now needs is what happened in those situations and countless other revolutions; a group of fanatics with a clear goal, a coherent plan, and the willingness to use great violence in key parts of society. A few thugs with guns in the officer corps, a few more to take control of the radio and TV stations, and the newspapers. The new media might have had a counter effect – until the switch is thrown – which the Mubarak regime conveniently did a few days ago. The deaths of a few key people. That’s really all it takes – a coup by any other name.
This is the future, not because their numbers are greater, but because their numbers are enough when combined with fanaticism, guns, and a few leaders who know what has to be done, to overcome the great, wallowing majority.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:28 am
Who to believe Tom, some say things are on the way down and others have a different view on what’s going on..
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:30 am
I know Cha. For once, this is not something I’m willing to actually get into an argument about, only a discussion – because the arguments for both the best and worst outcomes are finely balanced, and because I hope to god that I’m very, very wrong about this.
What would be of interest is to look at the commentary about the positive outlook for Iran 30 years ago.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:39 am
Some worrying/interesting tweets.
http://twitter.com/weddady/status/32547326736207872#
http://twitter.com/aliaSabi/status/32546421102088192#
http://twitter.com/emrahaydogdu/status/32546011847069696#
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:43 am
I note that Mubarak says he will step down AT THE NEXT ELECTION. He is 82, and it was widely believed he was going to step down then anyway to make way for his son. All this does is buy time for him to arrange the next government to his liking. He can rig the next election just like the last dozen. The only sacrifice is he won’t be able to get his son in the job. If I were an Egyptian I would not be satisfied with this. He has to go NOW.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 10:57 am
Tunisian Dr. Khaled Shawkat says Al-Jazeera is a mouth piece of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Al-Jazeera has been hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood organization – either at the wish of the channel’s owners as part of a certain political game [played] by the Qatari rulers, or out of the lack of awareness of the Qatari rulers, who think that the situation is under control and that even though they have given the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to control Al-Jazeera, for local, regional, and international considerations, they can get rid of them or restrain them any time they want…
Prior to writing this article, I spoke with a number of journalists at Al-Jazeera, [both] known and unknown, some of whom still worked there and some of whom had been forced, or decided, to quit. Most of them agreed that ‘loyalty’ [to a group] had come to supersede ‘qualifications,’ and that journalists with no Muslim Brotherhood background had to choose one of two options: [either] adapt to the new work conditions and swear loyalty to the representative of the supreme guide [of the Muslim Brotherhood] at Al-Jazeera, or leave…
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:02 am
. . . says the guy who was against the US going into Iraq, ousting it’s dictator, and allowing democracy…
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:03 am
So he has said it as predicted. But can he be trusted? He’s promised reforms in the past.
Who is the violent coward?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:09 am
Yep, Obama is pulling a Carter. It’s 1979 all over again. The US just lost it’s only other Middle East ally, and it and Israel are now under more threat. Obama has done more damage in the office of POTUS than people claim Bush ever did..
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:11 am
I wonder how many of the 200 F-16s that Egypt has will need to be shot down by Israel.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:14 am
What should the US do Fletch – invade Egypt and enforce a dictatorship?
No one has any idea how this will turn out, it’s a totally different situation and era to Iran. High risk for sure, it could be a popular tide that prevals, or it could be a faction that manages to manipulate control.
But how can it be stopped?
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:15 am
The following article has been linked to by several prominent blog sites. It’s well-known freelance journalist, Michael J. Totten and this piece is simply a writeup of a discussion he had in 2005 with an Egyptian blogger while wandering the streets of Cairo – Nasser’s Biggest Crime. I chuckled at this comment from the blogger:
It’s also a good insight into how optimism about the ME can be misplaced:
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:35 am
The Muslim Brotherhood is the best organised political entity on the ground in EG amid the fragmented ‘protest movement.’ It also comes with millions of bankroll from Iran. They will be active behind the scenes and into this leaderless groundswell WILL STEP motivated political power brokers. The protest will wane; the real thing to watch is what happens next politically.
there is no doubt EG will be further Islamised, and this may involved a civil struggle and much more bloodshed. It will evolved over weeks and months. But hatred of Israel will emerge early. I agree with you Tom H.
This is Russia 1917. The Bolshevik revolution was total people-power, but it was hijaked and steered very effectively and Stalin emerged at the top after lenin and Trotsky. Mobs are hopeless; they have to have focus, an agenda and political leadership. This is not a democratic upswell. There has never been democracy in this country in thousands of years.
I think this is far more serious than people think; prediction; we’ll be discussing this in detail – and only this – on Kiwblog in six weeks time. Lib vs Consv. in NZ politics and someone’s hair colour will completely fade into the background as pol.s scramble to get a NZ response to this.
Watch Jordan.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 11:58 am
An interim government will be sworn in by the judiciary following Mubaraks’ departure today. The process from there is to organise an election to elect Mubaraks’ successor. The West (U.S.) will be looking for a quick resolution to the crisis and more than likely will be involved in the electoral process by offering administrative as well as security assistance if required.
Vote:Certainly Egypt is a nation of multiple cultures and religions, therefore the process to self government will be fraught with difficulties. Nevertheless the populace has demonstrated it’s desire for change.
February 2nd, 2011 at 12:21 pm
Agreed Kevin, but politicised Islamic groups don’t give a hoot about “the people” they are motivated by higher ideals that allow them to murder, rape and pillage with moral justification, even blow themselves up to kill others. They will hijack this movement’s endgame.
It has been great watching the EG Muslims and Christians working together (ie the Christians who linked arms to protect a Mosque from malcontents on the streets; and Muslims who lifted a Christian on their shoulders). However, bigger forces are at work here. This is not America; it is Egypt under dictatorship infused with radicalised Islam.
Hamas won power in Lebanon thru ‘democracy’ and immediately began shelling Israeli suburbs. Hitler won democratically in Germany thru democracy, and then immediately murdered other political parties. So, whomever grabs control, i think the 30 year peace with israel will be the first item to go in EG, and that will send red lights a flashing across the international spectrum.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Godwin’s. Thread closed.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Quality comments Tom Hunter and IMP.
Peter George, you’re not in their league fella, sit back and learn.
Vote:February 2nd, 2011 at 1:17 pm
That’s all any of us can do from here Paul, sit back and learn – well, sit back and watch anyway.
Vote:Unless you have some quality suggestions for saving the world?
February 2nd, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Nice strawman Petey, you mong.
As far as anyone is concerned, Mubarak is done. Even the coldest, most rational foreign policy realist will see it. It’s time to drop him like every other thug we’ve ever courted and start to nurture the Egyptian’s desire for real democracy and opportunities. Better that than alienate them completely and have them back the MB or some other nutcase group out of spite. Egypt isn’t entirely lost, Fletch. Not yet.
It would be much better to see someone from the military like Enan as a future President rather than a useful idiot berk like ElBaradei. A secular military to fall back on against the MB will be more reliable than…who? The sururbanites of Cairo? Students? On that note, you can see why the Western Left and the MFM are backing ElBaradei.
Vote: