Unemployment seesaws back up

February 3rd, 2011 at 12:12 pm by David Farrar

After falling last quarter, has risen again to 6.8%. This reinforces how the economy will be the biggest issue in election year, and the Government will not want to go into the election with this high.

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30 Responses to “Unemployment seesaws back up”

  1. berend (1,689 comments) says:

    More smiling and waving needed.

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  2. voice of reason (490 comments) says:

    But the 90 Day trial period IS working ??

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  3. Mr Robert Black (145 comments) says:

    Come over to Germany.

    You can teach English part-time and earn NZ $4000 a month.

    Things are pretty cheap too.

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  4. RRM (10,097 comments) says:

    voice of reason –

    Unemployment is up, but that’s just down to the general vagueness of economic forces.

    But but but – the number of jobs grew by a factor of 1.02, and that’s CLEARLY thanks to National’s 90 day trials!

    Or something. :-P

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  5. Will de Cleene (462 comments) says:

    Does JK still agree with Treasury that unemployment will peak at 7 percent? If that was the Xmas quarter, what will the winter quarter look like? Let’s hope the Rugby World Cup acts as some kind of stimulant. Dagg knows, this economy needs some viagra.

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  6. magic bullet (776 comments) says:

    This rise unemployment will bump off jobs in industries with a low capital to labour ratio. That will mean a boost in Labour productivity – let’s beet JK and the other phonies around him will start trumpeting that misdirection.

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  7. MyNameIsJack (2,414 comments) says:

    Well, the government could do something…

    Like hold a jobs summit ….

    Like build a national Cycleway …..

    But no, they’d rather stay “pure” and sell State assetts for ideological reasons, not reasons of good policy. And what will assett sales lead to? The need for “investors” to recoup their costs by increased share prices and we see it all the time – the quickest way to boost a share price is to cut jobs.

    National – a policy free zone.

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  8. magic bullet (776 comments) says:

    But remember JK – unemployment kills governments, and i doubt it will bottom out at 7%. Energy prices are only going to grow, which will mean less cash for people to spend on other goods and services = more unemployment. So what’s the plan john? Let the market deal with it? Let the country slowly slide into chaos, and put more of the poor in jails until the less-wealthy live in an effective police state?

    What a beautiful vision JK has in store for us.

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  9. KiwiGreg (3,278 comments) says:

    “But remember JK – unemployment kills governments”

    Let’s hope so, it’s curtains for Obama then.

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  10. KiwiGreg (3,278 comments) says:

    Probably neeed to bump up the minimum wage. It’s only by increasing the cost of labour that we can increase the demand for it. Or something like that…

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  11. magic bullet (776 comments) says:

    yo greg – a bit defensive there i see. There are plenty of studies which show that moderate increases in the minimum wage don’t have a discernible impact on employment levels.

    More important is economic stability, and strategic government investment in infrastructure vital to growth/export-oriented-industries when the cycle is bottoming out. Crazy stuff, planning for the future, and valuing people over ideology i know, but it might just be crazy enough to work.

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  12. bearhunter (822 comments) says:

    It being an election year, I’d love to see a party – any party – come out with an actual policy or set of policies that will set out the conditions for economic growth and job creation. I’m not holding my breath; Labour don’t even understand that there is a problem, while National – despite three years of blathering about growing the economy – have done sweet FA to get more people working. Really, it’s like neither of them want the economy to grow; they’d rather point the finger at each other and sneer than actually do what we pay them so handsomely for and actually try to move the country in the right fucking direction.

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  13. voice of reason (490 comments) says:

    “RRM – …the number of jobs grew by a factor of 1.02, and that’s CLEARLY thanks to National’s 90 day trials”

    Well you might think that – I couldn’t concur

    NZIER econmists came up with research that attributes the increase to the 90 Day Trial – the same economists that predicted a DROP in unemployment to 6.2%

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  14. PaulL (5,446 comments) says:

    RRM: the study actually compared different types of firms (those eligible for 90 day trials and those not) and found a difference. Presumably general economic forces impacted both groups to a similar level.

    But yes, like any government, good news is due to our policies, bad news due to bad luck.

    MNIJ: so you’re saying that the state “assets” currently have excess employment, and it would be bad for those people to go find a productive job instead of being paid for by taxpayers? Not sure why that would be bad. Actually worked pretty well for Telecom, and as we can see, those who were pushed off the state tit did actually go get a real job, and the economy grew as a result.

    Magic, there are also plenty of studies that say otherwise. And experience with increasing the youth minimum wage suggests that it resulted in disproportionately higher unemployment for that group.

    As for economic stability, and investing in infrastructure. Looks like National are generating a lot of economic stability, compared to Labour’s plan to borrow and spend, particularly where that spending is of very low quality, such as middle class welfare. And investing infrastructure…you mean like a broadband network? You mean like roads?

    Is it just because of election year that the volume of lefty ranters is increasing, and the quality of their arguments dropping? At least RRM, Pete George and co have some decent arguments. No idea what drugs magic is on.

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  15. DJP6-25 (1,389 comments) says:

    Mr Robert Black 12:31 Don’t you have to qualify as an EC citizen to do that? Presumably you pay EC taxes and rent too. Not like Korea.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  16. magic bullet (776 comments) says:

    What are you on Paul?

    National has done nothing to correct our massive and chronic balance of payments deficit. You say they’re providing economic stability when they’re simply letting the small raft that is NZ sail without a rudder on the high seas of the global capital markets? Are you an absolute drongo?

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  17. PaulL (5,446 comments) says:

    magic bullet: last I looked you thought Labour would do better? Explain how borrowing more and spending more on low quality programmes would be better.

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  18. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    MNIJ “well the government could do something”

    Perhaps they could have a big wankfest, does the knowledge wave ring bells for you MNIJ?

    Perhaps they should grow the state sector, God knows we could do with a few thousand more shinny arses, I bet you like that one MNIJ

    “We need investors”, lefty speak for “screw the rich prick bastards, I want your money”

    I’m aware of many jobs that aren’t been taken up, but people like MNIJ and his hairy arsed mates have made a way out far to easy.

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  19. Jimbob (641 comments) says:

    People should stop listening to economists. They haven’t a clue. If the trend is up, they extrapolate up linear. How many saw the down turn in 2007-8? None.
    The economy is going to struggle with Europe, the UK and the USA all in economic trouble. Even though commodity prices are quite high, they never last that long at high levels. Key may be lucky things do not go down the toilet before November.

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  20. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    What JackOff means is a government agency assigned to ditch-digging. That’ll please the fuckloads of University graduates with naff pointless degrees who had it drummed into them by the state education system that you’re a failure if you don’t get one even if it is a Bachelor of Fine Arts in Elvis Presley Studies.

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  21. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    Hurf, you are saying my conjoint BA/BsocSci in political science and womens studies is worthless?

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  22. Viking2 (11,665 comments) says:

    Bennett not expecting unemployment jump

    ( Which clearly shows how out of touch with the real world these people are.)

    Thursday, 3, Feb, 2011 12:41PM

    A jump in the unemployment rate is not what the Government was expecting.

    Official figures out today show the unemployment rate increased 0.4% in the December quarter to 6.8%. It means 158,000 people are now listed as out of work

    Social Development Minister Paula Bennett says the numbers are not what she had anticipated.

    “I think that I probably expected it to stay about the same or increase slightly so it is a slight more of an increase than we were expecting.”

    Ms Bennett says while people were finding it hard to get work in the last quarter of 2010, the numbers are better than they were in December 2009.

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  23. MyNameIsJack (2,414 comments) says:

    side show bob (2,972) Says:

    February 3rd, 2011 at 5:01 pm

    I’m aware of many jobs that aren’t been taken up…

    Got a list of them?

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  24. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Only if you spent five years on it like a BA/LLB conjoint, nick.

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  25. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    Sure, try

    fencers
    shearers
    farmhands
    fruit pickers
    milkers
    tractor drivers

    I personally know that many positions remain vacant and have friends, agricultural contractors, that had to hire workers from the US, Ireland, Scotland simply because it’s all to hard for the cotton wool generation.
    Of course you do realise these jobs are not in fashion at the moment, you actually have to fucking WORK

    Much easier to go to uni, get a student loan and suck off the state tit.

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  26. MyNameIsJack (2,414 comments) says:

    Odd, that SSB. I live in a rural area and I don’t see many ads for those jobs out here. Maybe they’re all up north, or in your imagination.

    Some jobs,like shearing and picking are seasonal/itinerant, which rules out a lot of the labour pool. Its hard to educate kids when you move every few weeks, for example.

    Maybe there’d be more fruit pickers if the rates were higher. After all, isn’t that what theory says happens – when there’s a shortage prices rise? Why doesn’t that happen for fruit picking lbourers?

    So, how about pulling the sock from your arse and pointing to some ads for these jobs, not ads that are running for the first time this week, but ads that have been around for a while.

    Over yo you.

    Of course, it’s much easier to snipe at others than back up you argument with fact. And remember, the plural of anecdote is not data.

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  27. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    aw..gee..!/.bloody hands bob…

    so people don’t want to be part of yr animal concentration camp..

    ..brutalising animals for minimum wage…eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  28. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    philu do you find it ironic to comment on this thread when you are doing your best to worsen these statistics?

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  29. immigant (950 comments) says:

    I’m sure everybody will drop everythign they are doing in Auckaland and move to Whethewhakawi in the middle of nowhere to get payed minimum wage, live in a shack and work like plantation slave. No one wants these shitty slave jobs for a reason.

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  30. mpledger (425 comments) says:

    PaulL (3,773) Says:
    The study actually compared different types of firms (those eligible for 90 day trials and those not) and found a difference. Presumably general economic forces impacted both groups to a similar level.

    Presumably implies an assumption. If you want your model to be believed then you should back the assumption up with evidence.

    There are real difference between those eligible and those not.

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