Campbell vs Ring

March 1st, 2011 at 12:11 pm by David Farrar

blogged:

John, Your mindless, bullying, tirade against ‘moon man’ on tonight’s Campbell Live was perhaps the worst piece of egotistical, self-important, out of control, closed-minded, biased, unprofessional  non-interviewing I have seen in more than 40 years of New Zealand television.

I have no brief for Mr Ring or his theories, but after watching your treatment of him tonight, I have considerably more respect for him as the reasonable exponent of an admittedly controversial point of view than I have for you as an interviewer.

What mattered to you in this exchange was not what he had to say, but what you had to say. And since he thought the process was meant to involve his being critically questioned on statements he had made and being given reasonable opportunity to reply, he had every right to complain when you preferred to deny him that opportunity by shouting him down. It was, quite simply, appalling.

This has led to a huge debate with 113 comments to date on Brian and Judy’s blog. Opinion is divided between those who say that as Ring is a charlatan, Campbell did good ( noticeably in this camp) and those who say he didn’t let Ring even explain himself.

I like the take of Not PC:

If it’s true that Campbell bullied Ring, the greatest damage done by the bullying is …. that it didn’t give Ring a chance to bury himself in his own words. That’s surely the point of good interviewing. To let your audience see for themselves when a flake is being interviewed.

And in bullying rather than burying his interviewee, Campbell would have allowed Ring to gain his viewers’ sympathy instead of their contempt. Surely not at all what he intended.

Not PC also has some great links and graphs from scientists showing how Mr Ring has predicted earthquakes, well pretty much for every second day.

I didn’t see the interview, but what do people who saw it think?

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144 Responses to “Campbell vs Ring”

  1. Lance (2,718 comments) says:

    I never thought I would write this;
    Damn, I wish I had watched Campbell Live last night

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  2. mikeysmokes (172 comments) says:

    Ring could have advocated the eating of small children as a means to predict earthquakes and he would have come out of the interview looking better than Campbell who came across as a jumped up nutbar

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  3. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Asume that ring is a fraud of magestic proportions. Should this not be obvious to all if he is given simply the oportunity to speak?

    Why does Campbell not trust his audience to have the elementary intelligence to make up their own minds?

    Its hardly surpising the leftist thing preventing someone they don’t agree speak is a good thing. their entire MO is based on supression of disenting views.

    As for Campbell is childish interview of Dr Salapata on the magic and witchcraft paper being offer at Massey sealed his positions as an inane closed mided twwerp impressed with own PR. If he’d stopped giggiling long enough to listen to her he might have found out it was a multiperiod paper examining belief systems from the Classical to the modern world, not teaching people who to cast spells.

    If it had been he would have been a frog a long time ago instead of just a croaking buffoon.

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  4. Chuck Bird (4,906 comments) says:

    Ring has as much chance of predicting earthquakes as Al Gore and his supporters like Key and Smith have of predicting what the global temperature will be in 10 years let alone 100 years.

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  5. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Was he really Ken Ring or was he an actor?

    The most amzing aspect of all of this is that Edwards has only just realised what a vainglorious non-interviewer and complete arse Campbell actually is.

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  6. Craig Ranapia (1,266 comments) says:

    I don’t understand why this P.T. Barnum of pseudo-science was booked on Campbell Live in the first place, but good on Campbell for being (as one Farcebook Ring Cultist put it) “biased toward science”. Makes a pleasant change from a media whose general scientific illiteracy and innumeracy would be funny if it wasn’t so dangerous.

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  7. DT (104 comments) says:

    Although I think that Ring is in the same camp as the climate-sceptics (ie, tinfoil hat wearer), Campbell was arrogant and insulting to his audience and his guest.

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  8. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    As true as that maybe Chuck 1. shouldn’t we get to judge for ourselves? And 2. Hes not sticking his hand in my pocket so who cares.

    Hes certainly not the biggest loon to ever walk the earth.

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  9. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Stick to reality TV if journalism to too hard a concept for you Craig.

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  10. Lance (2,718 comments) says:

    Oh I just watched it on TV on demand.
    Yes what a charlatan, what a faker, what a fraud, should be run out of town on a rail…

    And I didn’t have any time for Ken Ring either

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  11. pseudonymous (50 comments) says:

    Campbell is a prat and will always be a prat.
    Like others I have no truck with Ken Ring, but Campbell is at all times insufferable.
    I call bullshit on Campbell, a rabid left wing clutz.
    How the hell does he hold down a job?
    Oh, that’s right, he works for TV3-evil little Bastard.

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  12. JC (951 comments) says:

    Appalling TV. In the run up to the interview there was a fair treatment of Ring’s theories with several interviews of Chch people saying they were well prepared for the quake because of Ring’s calculations. At that stage Ring looked pretty good.

    Then Campbell came on to provide the killing blows to Rings theories, but by pure crassness, bullying etc he left Ring looking a victim and with his theory that Chch will suffer a further huge shock on March 20th.. intact.

    The effect is that any watcher, especially in Chch must be terrified that Ring’s prediction is intact.. now, whats that going to do to morale?

    IMO, Campbell just become a most vocal part of an ongoing national disaster.

    JC

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  13. tknorriss (327 comments) says:

    It might be that the moon has some effect on earthquakes. But, even if this is the case, it is just one in a myriad of factors. So, claiming that the moon in itself is a predictor of earthquakes is ridiculous.

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  14. NeilM (338 comments) says:

    In the words of HC – Campbell is a creep.

    Who invites a known charlatan onto their show and then bullies them for being … a charlatan.

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  15. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    And Helen should know Neil.

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  16. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    I don’t understand why this P.T. Barnum of pseudo-science was booked on Campbell Live in the first place,

    Well that probably says more about you than anyone else.
    You seriously don’t understand why?

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  17. Chuck Bird (4,906 comments) says:

    “Although I think that Ring is in the same camp as the climate-sceptics ”

    You mean like Lord Monckton, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley.

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  18. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    It might be that the moon has some effect on earthquakes. But, even if this is the case, it is just one in a myriad of factors. So, claiming that the moon in itself is a predictor of earthquakes is ridiculous.

    Firstly, I think it is entirely possible this guy Ring is nothing but a crack pot, but I think the circumstances around the latest quake, and the following he has gained means he deserves his chance to speak, most people appear to want to hear him out.

    Secondly, as I understand it he is not suggesting it is just the moon, but an alignment of the larger planets with Earth and the closeness of the moon at the same time.
    We know that Jupiter causes seismic and volcanic effects on it’s moons due to it’s immense gravitational force, Jupiter also has an effect on the Sun as it orbits.
    In that sense, Ken Rings theories have scientific credibility, it is entirely possible that a combination of gravitational forces could trigger a twang in the Earths crust.

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  19. Craig Ranapia (1,266 comments) says:

    Shunda barunda:

    Since you’re so clever, please enlighten me because nobody else has.

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  20. shady (246 comments) says:

    Hillarious! On Sunday I heard John Campbell being interviewed on Radio Live – and he gave a harrowing account of his experiences, and without the visual, I found him quite believable, and thought he was genuinely upset and distraught. I thought – maybe the guy has changed from that arrogant, bullying, boarish twit that I remember from the Jenny Shipley days. So on the back of that interview, I tuned in for the last 10 minutes (was late home) – only to be greeted by that same bullying, boarish twat that has graced our screens since the 1980’s. Won’t get sucked in again!

    I’m not a “believer” as may be suggested. However, we believe (and know) that the tides are controlled by the moon. I know that when the moon is full, it is always full tide at 8am in the morning near our place. If we believe that, why is it not possible that the gravitational pull of the moon can affect other major aspects of our earth.

    It certainly makes me more curious.

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  21. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Craig, he appears to have predicted the last quake, people took precautions and are now very greatfull. Everybody is talking about it and clearly Campbell live picked up on that (the flood of emails made that bit easy) so the story was obviously valid which is why they ran with it.
    And despite claims from some, there are no howls of outrage calling for Kens head as a scare monger (except a very few here) so I struggle to see how a guy who is effectively telling people to prepare for calamity is really doing any harm.

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  22. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Frankly I’m just surprised the greens haven’t annouced a policy based on this guys predictions.

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  23. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    In the same vain, some weeks ago a woman claiming to be a top scientist in the US, who is employed by the government rang the Alex Jones radio show. She claimed the US government is preparing in earnest for a pole shift or pole flip. Normally i wouldn’t think twice about such matters but the dates stated when this will occur is sometime between the 15th and 20th March this year. Apparently the poles have become more unstable over the last few years. The CHCH earthquake and shifting tectonic plates in the South Pacific are simply symptoms of the coming shift. Make of it as you may, we don’t have long wait to see if it’s all BS.

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  24. DT (104 comments) says:

    @Chuck: Yep, like Lord Monckton. He doesn’t know a thing about science, no education in it or practical experience. Why listen to him just because he has an hereditary peership?

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  25. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Well theres one thing we know the moon brings out side show, bloody loonies.

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  26. BeaB (2,164 comments) says:

    He made Ring look intelligent.
    An overbearing, ridiculous display by a jumped up little reporter.
    I’d like to see him take on a big boy one day. Nah he’d run home blubbing.

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  27. cabbage (457 comments) says:

    I didnt see it, but the morning rumble essentially called it the worst interview ever. And they have quite a reasonable working relationship with John Campbell i believe. Looking forward watching it on demand when i get home.

    I’m with Shunda on this. A multitude of people have said that they were prepared based on Ken’s predictions, irrespective of the fact that he’s full of shit, he has managed to mobilise enough people to prepare. This could very well have saved lives.

    How is that a bad thing?

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  28. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    DT you made a detailed study of his qualifications have you? What are yours? WTF are Campbells?????

    Your bottom line is to not listen to people you don’t agree with or let them exercise their free speech either based on whatever bullshit excuse you can pluck out of your ass.

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  29. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    I saw it last night, I thought Campbell was “overeager” to make a valid point and stuffed up a chance to let Ring speak for himself and expose his nonsense. Like, his theory that moon initiated earthquakes create fault lines.

    Shunda, have you read through Ring’s website “explanations” on weather and earthquakes. Try:
    http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home

    He has done nothing like predict the last quake. If you wanted to prepare based on his scattergun predictions stay in your bunker.

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  30. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Repeating this from GD, this was Ring predicting the last quake:

    The 7+ is sure to be somewhere in the “Ring of Fire”, where 80% of all major earthquakes seem to occur, and NZ is at the lower left of this Ring. The range of risk may be within 500kms of the Alpine Fault.

    And he didn’t get the day right nor the strength.

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  31. DT (104 comments) says:

    No way Murray. If Campbell invited him onto his show, he should be allowed to talk and listened to. My statement about Monckton is based on his bizaare arguments. Like his alleged aids cures, and other cures for diseases. Warped.

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  32. dc (125 comments) says:

    I watched the interview on the net and thought it wasn’t that bad. Ring was clearly trying to dodge the questions and Campbell didn’t let him off. Campbell’s interviewing style is being hyped up by acolytes of this fraudster in order to avoid the awkward questions he raised. http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html says it all really.

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  33. jackp (668 comments) says:

    I don’t get it. Campbell invites Ken Ring on his show and wouldn’t let him speak. I was curious to hear what he had to say. Campbell did the same thing when he hosted the candidate debate before the last election. He wouldn’t stop talking. If John Campbell was half the newsman he thinks he is, he would have let Ring give the reasons for his predictions and let the viewers come up with their own conclusions. John Campbell is yellow journalism at its best.

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  34. PinkGina (90 comments) says:

    Just watched the interview to see what all the fuss was about.

    Campbell definitely came off second best there is no doubt. It is the worst interview I’ve seen him give

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  35. happy-jacko (64 comments) says:

    It takes one to know one… true or not … manners and decency should be prevailing…. So what when Johnny says “God Bless you “to the victims! Just a thought!

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  36. Peter (1,695 comments) says:

    Here it be:

    http://tinyurl.com/4jtbz2y

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  37. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    The ironic thing here is that TV3 ran a psychic TV series a few years ago called “Dare To Believe” by Taranaki psychic Jeanette Wilson and they never grilled her with ferocity in their interview of her on “60 Minutes” prior to screen her show. They were enamored with her so called “talking to the dead capability” that they let her off the hook. So, John Cambell thinks that Ken Ring’s prediction method is bullsh*t, but Jeanette Wilson’s capability to talk to the dead during the filming of her show wasn’t?

    I believe that TV3 should have realized by now that they’re a channel that endorses bullsh*t, so, if I was the producer of Cambell Live, I would have directed John to endorse Ken Ring’s method during the interview and call all the GNS scientists, bullsh*t, but they didn’t do that , did they?

    Anyway, Ken Ring should go to Grafton bridge and jump off there, simply for his continual spouting of bullsh*t. But Ken has followers. That shows that there are suckers everywhere.

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  38. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Ring followers are in the category of “those who want to believe will believe regardless”, like runes, bible prophesies, Nostradamus, tarot cards, tea leaves, octupii and astrology (the latter is what Ring bases his “opinions” on).

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  39. Paulus (2,711 comments) says:

    Campbell does one thing for me wherever he appears on television.

    I turn over to whatever is on another programme – anything but the little twerp.

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  40. happy-jacko (64 comments) says:

    I wish we had some interviews who were not trying to be entrtainment. The journalist look fro the BIG stiry for none other than themselves. Some do a great job but I am afraid good Journos are becoming few and far between.

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  41. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    The problem with this item was that I don’t think Campbell was trying to entertain, he was trying to do a service in exposing a fraud, but his entertraining took over and he blew it.

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  42. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Pete George, do you think it is a possibility that the gravitational influence of the moon and other planets can effect the crust on Earth?
    Because I think it’s possible, and that is about the limit of my interest in Ken Rings predictions.
    I have no time for his other ideas.

    I have other reasons for believing that we should be preparing for a series of large earthquakes based on info from the geonet site. It is my own hunch after studying geology for a long while and I think there is evidence that should concern people enough to prepare for the worst, I am not talking about Chch, they may have had the worst of it by now.

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  43. RightNow (7,015 comments) says:

    Started watching but the little creep turned me off.

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  44. mikeysmokes (172 comments) says:

    Pete George (9,250) Says:
    March 1st, 2011 at 2:06 pm
    Ring followers are in the category of “those who want to believe will believe regardless”, like runes, bible prophesies, Nostradamus, tarot cards, tea leaves, octupii and astrology (the latter is what Ring bases his “opinions” on).

    And what about God botherers?

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  45. Chuck Bird (4,906 comments) says:

    “@Chuck: Yep, like Lord Monckton. He doesn’t know a thing about science, no education in it or practical experience. Why listen to him just because he has an hereditary peership?”

    And what expertise has John Key to do a flip flop becasue he saw Al Gore’s movie? Also what expertise has the fraudster Al Gore?

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  46. Lindsay Addie (1,342 comments) says:

    1. I think Ring is charlatan and fraud.

    2. Simply the most hilarious interview (is that the right word?) that I’ve seen on TV since the days of Muldoon.

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  47. Chuck Bird (4,906 comments) says:

    “Pete George, do you think it is a possibility that the gravitational influence of the moon and other planets can effect the crust on Earth?
    Because I think it’s possible”

    Shunda, do you know how gravitational pull works. You double the distance you are from a body and the pull is one quarter. Triple it and the pull is one ninth. The moon is about 400k from earth. While the larger planets have much greater gravitational pull there distance means it will be negligible in comparison to the moon.

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  48. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Shunda, yes, I think it’s probable that the gravitational effects of the moon may have an effect on the earth’s crust, as will the tidal sloshing around of the sea. It’s a matter of degree, and as far as earthquakes go it’s most likley very minor.

    The moon goes through it’s cycles far more often than we have major earthquakes here, so I don’t see how we can predict when damage will occur as Ring suggests from a full moon or a new moon +/- 3 days (which covers nearly half of each lunar cycle).

    Put another way, how often do we have full moons and new moons and perigrees compared to how often we have damaging earthquakes?

    I think the key relationship between Ring and the moon is lunar, as in attention seeking lunartic.

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  49. kowtow (8,945 comments) says:

    I commented last night but here goes again

    Campbell is rude and arrogant.

    The geo guy ( scientist) did say the moon can have an influence on small quakes. That said is Ring as nuts as some people are trying to make out.

    Tectonics is a very new science,not properly understood by the scientists themselves. It came to the fore because of the Cold War and the US Navy (God love them) mapping the seabed.

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  50. djg (71 comments) says:

    The GNS scientist admitted that scientists agree earthquakes are influeneced by gravitational pull of the moon.

    Have a listen it’s at minute 13.50 in http://tinyurl.com/4jtbz2y

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  51. AlphaKiwi (683 comments) says:

    For those of you who missed the interview and want to see it. Here it is:

    http://ondemand.tv3.co.nz/Campbell-Live-Monday-February-28-2011/tabid/59/articleID/2153/MCat/73/Default.aspx

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  52. backster (2,196 comments) says:

    I believe the moon does have a great effect on our lives and is probably vital to life on earth itself.. Ken Ring’s article was headed “Will Christchurch have another earthquake,” and contrary to the statements of Pete G. he listed other factors beside the moon including the alignment of the Planets. RING does believe that perigree and apogee are often but not always indicative of extreme events. Often when such an event occurs I check the charts and invariably find it was within a day or so of those positions as was the case with both Christchurch earthquakes. RING has had a large international clientele for at least the 15 years or so that I have been aware of his theories so if he is a charlatan he is a successful one. I prefer to keep an open mind,

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  53. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Tidal forces in earthquake prediction.

    There are two flavors of tidal stressing that have been claimed to generate enhanced rates of earthquakes—diurnal and biweekly tides.

    Diurnal, as most easily observed in the twice-daily rise and fall of the ocean tides, have occasionally been shown to influence earthquakes (e.g.,,[21] this paper shows there may be some weak tidal triggering of shallow, oceanic thrust-faulting earthquakes).

    Bi-weekly, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the “syzygy” effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g.,[22]), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.

    None of this supports Ring’s astrology. I wouldn’t bet my house on a fool moon.

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  54. Chthoniid (2,047 comments) says:

    Scathing sciblogs takedown of Ring –

    http://sciblogs.co.nz/the-atavism/2011/03/01/ken-ring-cant-predict-earthquakes-either/

    You can add a fair few false negatives to those false positives. In October he claimed the aftershock sequence would die down, missing the major rumble on boxing day and several times he declared that it was unlikely Christchurch would be face another major quake (tragically wrong).

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  55. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Pete
    If we are at a stage where we know that major faults are loaded up is it not possible that the straw that breaks the camels back is a little shove from the solar system?
    My own understanding of geologists data is that we are in the middle of a cluster of large earthquakes nation wide, I am very anxious that the Alpine fault is about to go, and I think other people need to be as well.

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  56. Inky_the_Red (764 comments) says:

    I have no idea what interview Brian Edwards saw. As I had no power until 9:30pm last night I have only seen the interview on line.

    I was expecting to see Campbell at his worse. Instead I saw him quote a charlatan to himself. Like Russell Brown I saw an interviewee not answer questions. I think Ring was expecting an opportunity to promote a book or get some other method of self promotion.

    Balanced journalism does give voice to the flat earth society. It also should not give oxygen to the waste of space Ring.

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  57. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    In October he claimed the aftershock sequence would die down, missing the major rumble on boxing day

    The boxing day quake wasn’t large, it was just close.
    And it would appear that the aftershock sequence did indeed begin to die down during October and November:

    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

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  58. nasska (12,101 comments) says:

    Regardless of whether Ken Ring is right or Ken Ring is wrong Campbell has fallen into the trap most NZ TV interviewers fall for. They start out okay, then the accolades go to their head & they believe that people are tuning into “The John Campbell Half Hour” rather than waiting to hear the interviewee’s opinions.

    Campbell is just another over stoked ego.

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  59. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Read some of Ring’s stuff Shunda – he seems to disagree with you on fault lines.

    He suggests the moon causes earthquakes to rupture the crust at random (?) places, and fault lines are just the resulting scars. So don’t worry about the Alpine Fault, the next Big One may be in the middle of Australia.

    Earthquakes cause fault lines, not vice versa

    But he’s aware of the Ring of Fire which is a massive series of fault lines – does he think the moon just caused these in an interesting pattern? He is also aware that earthquakes are more prevalent on the Ring which consists of established faults, so he contradicts himself.

    Earthquakes don’t cause fault lines. Plate collisions and separations cause them, and they cause earthquakes.

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  60. Inky_the_Red (764 comments) says:

    Shunda

    He also said that he was talking about earthquakes that kill people or do damage to buildings. Boxing day rates 3rd on the damage scale of this sequence of earthquakes.

    I base this on the pub being closed scale.

    September 4 pub closed for 6 days. Boxing day closed for a day. 22 February closed for good

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  61. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Well Pete, like I said, I am not interested in this sort of nonsense, I think the evidence is overwhelming that tectonic stresses are the primary producer of earthquakes.

    As an aside, the Chch quake map site has also included perigee and apogee in the daily energy release stats, which is very interesting indeed.

    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

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  62. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Also interesting is the comment they make:
    There does not appear to be any clear, obvious correlation between the phase or distance of the moon and any of the quake metrics shown, but they are shown here for you to draw your own conclusions.

    I agree with them, there does not appear to be any correlation.

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  63. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    I’m sure Professor Mann could reinterpret the graph to show a distinct correlation. :)

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  64. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Those three spikes at perigee for the past 3 months would be enough for an honest scientist to look into further study, forget about Ken Ring, the data is there.

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  65. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    And regarding Geologists, did they warn of the full danger of the after shock sequence? or were they restricted by a desire to not rock the boat or their ‘scientific’ integrity?
    A geologist after the 6.3 said the location wasn’t a surprise because the aftershock sequence had been progressively heading east towards the city and getting shallower.
    Gee whiz!, thanks for that retrospective gem!

    God forbid a scientist says something on a hunch, hell, it might have saved lives.

    Can’t offend the scientific method now can we.
    (waits for howls of outrage from the lords of science)

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  66. Scott (1,807 comments) says:

    I think John Campbell falls into the trap of making everything about him. If you are going to invite someone on to the show then surely you should give them a fair hearing? John Campbell didn’t do this. His attitude seemed to me to be one of naked hostility and contempt.

    Is there room for civility and respect for people’s opinions in TV journalism today? Or is it just another madhouse? If there is no civility and respect then I think you get a madhouse. John Campbell’s show seems to be about John Campbell. Lots of heat but very little light.

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  67. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    Whether the moon causes earthquakes or not, is not really the major point. The main point is that Ken Ring just dreamt up that the moon is the major cause, with no justification or theoretical foundation of how his calculation that has been done. It means that even scientists who think that there is some small, causation of earthquakes coming from the moon effect, those scientists papers give no, formula or functional relation or estimation of when a particular earthquake with certain magnitude is going to hit or not. Ken Ring does give vague time-line of when earthquake is going to happen, therefore Ken Ring is a bullshit artist.

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  68. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    I’m not sure what you’d expect Shunda – from what I’ve heard from geologists it was quite clear there was a reasonable chance of a large-ish aftershock sometime. There was no way of being certain, and no way of knowing when, where and how damaging and life threatening it would be.

    It would have been reasonable to expect that less damage was likely so therefore less threat to life. Evacuating Canterbury for a year just in case would have been a huge over reaction with what was known.

    Sometimes we have to accept that shit happens, and in this case quite bad shit unfortunately.

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  69. Chthoniid (2,047 comments) says:

    @Shunda Barunda

    No, stochastic events will on occasion exhibit clustering, much in the same way that even if rolling a fair six sided die, you could get a run of 6s.

    You simply can’t find a useful predictive relationship between the distance of the moon to the earth -> graph
    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v387/science_boy/orbit.png?t=1298892635

    In the end, evidence has to drive policy towards earthquakes, not hunches.

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  70. Christopher Thomson (377 comments) says:

    I’m more interested in the Aussie guy who reckons that there will be a 5.5 on the 15 March, give or take 3 days either side.

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  71. double d (225 comments) says:

    The big issue i have with Ring is the effect his comments can have on people down here in Canterbury.
    As Campbell points out (and i am not a Campbell apologist or fan), Ring is scaring people.
    My wife wants our family to fly to AKL for a week either side of 20 March – based on the “fact” he predicted both the September EG and February EQ.
    These “facts” need analysing and his “predicitions” need some calibration!
    how many accurate predicitions does he make?
    Is he like the Fortune Teller that tells you ” you will have some major changes in your life this year” or “you will meet someone new that will have an impact on your life” etc etc.

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  72. Dan (39 comments) says:

    Just looking at this: http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

    Does it not seem that there tend to be particularly larger and more frequent quakes as the moon is at or near either apogee or perigree?

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  73. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    double d – as an indicator of his accuracy I check his predictions for last Sunday:

    Timing of potential activity increase 27 Feb Time: at 1am, 9.30am, 3-4pm, 8-9pm

    Earthquakes Sunday (Geonet):
    (Saturday 11.51 pm 3.8)
    3.36 am 3.0
    4.54 am 3.4
    7.55 am 3.2
    11.44 am 3.2
    1.03 pm 3.5
    2.11 pm 3.0
    4.21 pm 3.7
    5.54 pm 3.0
    8.34 pm 2.9

    He “predicted” the smallest quake of the day. He was wrong on the other 8.

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  74. KiwiGreg (3,278 comments) says:

    This feels very much like the god botherer debates – those who want to believe will believe, facts are merely inconvenient roadbumps on their belief highways.

    You shouldn’t assume that just because someone can turn on a computer and connect to the internet that they are capable of critical reasoning.

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  75. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    No, stochastic events will on occasion exhibit clustering, much in the same way that even if rolling a fair six sided die, you could get a run of 6s.

    Well that is not how geologists are talking chthoniid.
    They seem to be suggesting that tectonic activity occurs in lurches and periods of increased activity for periods of up to 20 years.
    Plate tectonics is a field of science that is still developing, we still know bugger all when it comes down to it.
    Humans have been on this land for a fraction of geologic time, the landscape suggests that at times some major sh!t hits the fan and stays hitting the fan for extended periods.
    For example, how do we know that the large earthquakes experienced at the time of European colonisation in the late 1800’s were not continuing aftershocks of the Alpine fault rupture in 1717?
    The Alpine fault is one of the fastest moving faults on the planet, yet geologists are puzzled at the lack of deep earthquakes and several other anomalies regarding elastic strain etc.
    There is much to learn, and simply putting it down to a run of sixes on a dice is hardly comforting or helpful with the knowledge we now have.

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  76. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    You shouldn’t assume that just because someone can turn on a computer and connect to the internet that they are capable of critical reasoning.

    And we shouldn’t expect that the scientific method is going to be of any use other than to figure stuff out after the fact.

    People may put their trust in “captain hindsight” but I would prefer a geologist to come out and say:
    “hey guys, the 7.8 in Fiordland last year twisted the entire South Island and loaded up the underwater section of the Alpine fault. We have also had heightened activity nationwide since 2003 and now we have stresses releasing in the Canterbury area, we know that the Alpine fault is at the extreme end of it’s rupture cycle and a major earthquake is probably imminent”

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  77. 3-coil (1,199 comments) says:

    Campbell was just his hysterical wanky self – no way was he going to let the guy explain his theories.

    I can’t help but compare it to the Campbell Live interview with the medium who was in communication with the late Princess Diana – not once was her credibility questioned! It seems John-Boy is okay with a woman who speaks to the dead, but apoplectically incensed by a bloke with a theory about moon/tides/earthquakes…?

    It was Campbell who came out of it looking like an idiot.

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  78. BlairM (2,340 comments) says:

    I think Mr Ring’s theories are interesting. They demand our attention and consideration at least. Maybe he is right and maybe he is wrong. Time will tell. I think it’s important that we have lateral thinkers in society.

    I am probably more wary of his detractors. As Nietzsche once said “At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid”.

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  79. Steve (4,537 comments) says:

    Another perfect example of Campbell interviewing himself. Ring deserved better that that crap from Campbell. It does not matter if Ring is right or wrong, John Campbell behaved as expected, a total COCK. Your dad Phomes taught you well son. When you can’t control the interview then rudely interupt and change the tactic.
    Now if John Campbell would STFU and listen for once, he may even learn something

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  80. debcav (1 comment) says:

    The last time I saw that much insanity displayed was on The Cuckoo Nest, Campbell owes Mr Ring a formal and public apology

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  81. tristanb (1,127 comments) says:

    I think Mr Ring’s theories are interesting. They demand our attention and consideration at least.

    You need to relearn about evaluating people’s ideas. Tons of people have crazy theories every day – you shouldn’t listen to most of them.

    I assume JC was pissed off at Ring because Ring is trying to defraud the people of Christchurch who are currently vulnerable. No-one likes seeing con-artists taking advantage of other people – no-one likes to be ripped off.

    It’s a pity Campbell didn’t give Ring enough rope to hang himself (at least for everyone capable of semi-rational thought).

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  82. reid (16,702 comments) says:

    To summarise this there’s probably about half a dozen maybe a dozen people here who’d be in the ‘don’t reject out of hand’ category and the rest of you in the other.

    I don’t really understand this ratio but it really does exist. In my observation it’s a fairly typical result for this kind of issue at this kind of time and seems more related to thinking patterns than any genes in that it crosses both sexes, all races all socio-economic levels and many education levels although that seems to have a bearing. I think with education it’s that people without much of it tend to rule out a lot of ideas because they just pass them by like a ship in the night, until they get a bit older. So those people never tolerate someone like Ring but you ask them to explain and they just regurgitate the MSM reason or just say something like: “I dunno, he’s just [x].”

    But amongst those of us here with education there’s about what, a 80/20 split, maybe 90/10 or 70/30.

    Regardless of what you think of Ring, he’s merely saying words. They’re not offensive words, it’s merely imparting info which one is free to choose either to pursue or not.

    I don’t think Ring was big-noting himself. Anyone but a moron would not fail to realise the ramifications of warning the nation on Campbell Live that ChCh was potentially liable for another event approx March 20 and Ring isn’t a moron.

    He was just doing what he thinks its right. If it causes people to evacuate, for nothing, then that’s serious. If he says nothing and something happens, that’s worse. What would you have done?

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  83. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Campbell has apologised, and blamed his actions on his compassion for quake rattled Christchurch.

    Now, who’s playing who?

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  84. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Campbell should get bloody Bill Hohepa on next and give him heaps about the moon and his fishing predictions.

    I’ve never caught fuck all when its meant to be the best time. :)

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  85. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Evacuate Christchurch on “5, 19, 20, 21 March; 17, 18 April” +/- a few days just in case?

    On 19-21 March:

    The Alpine Fault itself seems to be fairly inactive at the moment. However, as we have said, it could be anywhere in NZ, or it may not even happen at all. Whilst the timing can be calculated, there are many wild cards.

    As there is a pattern between September and now, extreme events to not eventuate would break what is, for the locality, a fairly solid 6-month-old and some might say highly predictable sequence. Given what we know, there is nothing to indicate to us why the now-extended pattern of extreme events, each evenly spaced about a month apart, should not continue for at least one more month, and quite possibly two.

    We repeat, it may not happen.

    What would you have done ensure safety for family based on that sort of wisdom Reid? That’s the sort of prediction that is making scared people even more scared. All they hear is “bad earthquake on March 20″. I’ve heard people talk about it myself, down here.

    It will be more dangerous traveling.

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  86. Nigel Kearney (1,097 comments) says:

    People who believe this stuff can’t be convinced otherwise by reasoned debate.

    The media should just not be giving Ring any opportunity to promote his nonense. Given that Ring was on TV, probably the best Campbell could do was make sure he didn’t get to actually say anything.

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  87. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics

    Note:

    “Regarding the driving mechanism of the plates various models co-exist: Tectonic plates are able to move because the Earth’s lithosphere has a higher strength and lower density than the underlying asthenosphere. Lateral density variations in the mantle result in convection. Their movement is thought to be driven by a combination of the motion of seafloor away from the spreading ridge (due to variations in topography and density of the crust that result in differences in gravitational forces) and drag, downward suction, at the subduction zones. A different explanation lies in different forces generated by the rotation of the Globe and tidal forces of the Sun and the Moon. The relative importance of each of these factors is unclear, and is still subject to debate (see also below).”

    And.

    “Earth rotation related driving forces

    Alfred Wegener, being a meteorologist, had proposed tidal forces and pole flight Force as main driving mechanisms for continental drift. However, these forces were considered far too small to cause continental motion as the concept then was of continents plowing through oceanic crust.[21] Therefore, also Wegener in his last edition of his book in 1929 converted to convection currents as the main driving force.

    In the plate tectonics context (accepted since the seafloor spreading proposals of Heezen, Hess, Dietz, Morley, Vine and Matthews -see below- during the early 1960s), though, oceanic crust in motion with the continents which made the proposals related to Earth rotation to be reconsidered, also in more recent literature, these are:

    1. Tidal drag due to the gravitational force the Moon (and the Sun) exerts on the crust of the Earth
    2. Shear strain of the Earth globe due to N-S compression related to the rotation and modulations of it;
    3. Pole flight force: equatorial drift due to rotation and centrifugal effects: tendency of the plates to move from the poles to the equator (“Polflucht”);
    4. Coriolis effect acting on plates when they move around the globe;
    5. Global deformation of the geoid due to small displacements of rotational pole with respect to the Earth crust;
    6. Other smaller deformation effects of the crust due to wobbles and spin movements of the Earth rotation on a smaller time scale.

    In order for these mechanisms to be overall valid, systematic relationships should exist all over the Globe between the orientation and kinematics of deformation, and the geographical latitudinal and longitudinal grid of the Earth itself. Ironically, these systematic relations studies in the second half of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century do underline exactly the opposite: that the plates had not moved in time, that the deformation grid was fixed with respect to the Earth equator and axis, and that gravitational driving forces were generally acting vertically and caused only locally horizontal movements (the so-called pre-plate tectonic, “fixist theories”). Later studies (discussed below on this page) therefore invoked many of the relationships recognised during this pre-plate tectonics period, to support their theories (see the anticipations and reviews in the work of van Dijk and collaborators [14][22]).

    Of the many forces discussed in this paragraph, tidal force is still highly debated and defended as a possible principle driving force, whereas the other forces are used or in global geodynamic models not using the plate tectonics concepts (therefore beyond the discussions treated in this section), or proposed as minor modulations within the overall plate tectonics model.

    In 1973 George W. Moore [23] of the USGS and R. C. Bostrom [24] presented evidence for a general westward drift of the Earth’s lithosphere with respect to the mantle, and, therefore, tidal forces or tidal lag or “friction” due to the Earth’s rotation and the forces acting upon it by the Moon being a driving force for plate tectonics: as the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, the moon’s gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth’s surface layer back westward, just like proposed by Alfred Wegener (see above). In a more recent 2006 study (Scoppola et al. 2006)[25], scientists rediscussed and advocated these earlier proposed ideas. It has also been suggested recently in Lovett (2006)[26] that this observation may also explain why Venus and Mars have no plate tectonics, since Venus has no moon and Mars’ moons are too small to have significant tidal effects on Mars. In a recent paper by Torsvik et al. (2010)[27] it was suggested that, on the other hand, it can easily be observed that many plates are moving north and eastward, and that the dominantly westward motion of the Pacific ocean basins derives simply from the eastward bias of the Pacific spreading center (which is not a predicted manifestation of such lunar forces). In the same paper the authors admit, however, that relative to the lower mantle, there is a slight westward component in the motions of all the plates. They demonstrated though that the westward drift, seen only for the past 30 Ma, is attributed to the increased dominance of the steadily growing and accelerating Pacific plate. The debate is still open.”

    Bill might be a better bet than Ken. :)

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  88. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction

    Tidal forces are magnified during and after an eclipse. The solar tide is approximately a third of the lunar tide. When the sun and moon are in alignment these tidal forces are combined.

    A paper published in Taiwan, by the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, found a significant relationship to tidal forces and earthquakes in China and Taiwan. The paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes (Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.[23] The conclusion is this method may be used to help forecast earthquakes by studying the lunar perigee.

    none so blind as those that claim to see.

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  89. Chthoniid (2,047 comments) says:

    @Shunda Barunda

    No, stochastic events will on occasion exhibit clustering, much in the same way that even if rolling a fair six sided die, you could get a run of 6s.

    Well that is not how geologists are talking chthoniid.
    They seem to be suggesting that tectonic activity occurs in lurches and periods of increased activity for periods of up to 20 years…

    Yes, this is a stochastic event that simply has a different probability distribution to rolling a dice. The principle is the same. Clustering will appear as a relic of the probability function, not because of underlying causality.

    The appropriate tool is to use a large data set that generates enough information that such ‘small sample clusters’ get ironed out. A data set of 3 observations is too small to be credible. The same principle applied to Wakefield’s study that showed a link between autism and vaccination (aside from the fact he was an attention-whore who made up the evidence). The consequences of this was a drop in vaccination rates in the UK especially, with an increase in child mortality from preventable diseases. Hunches kill.

    The presence of knowledge gaps about tectonic activity doesn’t constitute positive evidence that Ring is correct.

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  90. reid (16,702 comments) says:

    What would you have done ensure safety for family based on that sort of wisdom Reid?

    Pete you’ll notice my comment didn’t touch at all upon the veracity or otherwise of Mr Ring’s theories. Rather I was merely observing the social psychology being played out on this thread. I’m not familiar with Ring’s theories nor have I yet bothered to acquaint myself an obligation I didn’t care to assume given the aforesaid narrow scope of my original observation

    Why challenge me therefore to explain what I would do were I and my family in ChCh?

    On another topic, one of the attributes of this social phenomena is an instant formulation of opinion from which very few ever rescind even slightly. This is because its assisted by the strong emotion which becomes associated to the opinion. This causes people to misinterpret what one actually said cause the emotion is talking and the recipient isn’t therefore, listening.

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  91. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Reid, you asked “What would you have done?” I didn’t challenge you, just responded in kind.

    I understand what you’re saying, I see it here and elsewhere a lot, entrenched positions. Many don’t come to debate, they come to state, and don’t like that being questioned.

    I admit I was initially skeptical about Ring, I’ve looked in to his weather opinions before. I tried to see some glimmers of common sense in what he said on earthquakes – and did find his claim of some moon effect was supported by scientific studies, but it appears to be nowhere near as significant as he claims. Apart from that, the more I read of his own website the weaker his claims seem. Try it. Just read a bit, like the March site linked above, or even the quotes from his site that I posted.

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  92. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    The gravity of the moon moves a hell of a lot of water around the earth and stresses the mantle as well.

    Anyone who thinks that the effect of that alteration of pressure on the crust does not have some effect on multiplying stress factors that normal tectonic movement is continuously building up on the plate boundaries is in denial.

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  93. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Ok then Chthoniid, lets look at the bigger picture.
    In the 35 years between 1968 and 2003 we had the following major earthquakes:

    1968 Inagahua 7.1
    1987 Edgecombe 6.3
    1988 Te Anau 6.7
    1990 Weber 6.4
    1993 Secretary Island 6.8
    1994 Arthurs pass 6.7
    1995 East cape 7.0

    In the 8 years since 2003 we have had:

    2003 Fiordland 7.1
    2004 Puysegur Trench 7.2
    2007 George sound 6.7
    2007 Gisborne 6.8
    2009 Dusky sound 7.8
    2010 Darfield 7.1
    2010 White island 6.4
    2011 Chrischurch 6.3

    Is this just a roll of the dice as well? There has sure been a lot of activity of late, and with our knowledge of the Alpine fault being loaded up to hell, do you think perhaps a more determined approach to warning us of impending catastrophe could be warranted?
    Even if Ken is a nut bar, perhaps at least he is offering us a better chance than those restricted to walking backwards whilst worshipping the scientific method.

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  94. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Johnboy, scientists acknowledge some moon effect on earthquakes.

    Here is another paragraph from Ring’s March prediction page. It includes scaremongering, encouragement to not take any chances, and then dismissal of any further risk.

    Reason for the April dates: Full moon=18th, perigee (fourth closest for year)=17th, crossing equator=16th. This is the last potential date in the sequence. The interval has roughly the same potency as the February full moon period of 18th-25th. It does not mean a similar sized 6.3-mag will necessarily occur, but it does mean the killer is still loose on the streets, the one that strikes on full moons. We have not mentioned this date thus far in consideration of those traumatised even considering 19-21 March. But perhaps now is the time to keep this date in mind. It means that basic stocks and survival preparations should not be finally eased until after 19 April. If we all take precautions we are safer. If it doesn’t occur then it doesn’t really matter. It matters more if we are warned and do nothing.

    Recommending “basic stocks and survival preparations” is fine, we all should do that, but to ease off them after his last date of 19 April is highly irresponsible.

    I’ll make a prediction – after April 19 there is a reasonable likelihood of a 5.x or higher earthquake – and if it happens Ken Ring will have changed his “opinions” to claim that he picked it, after the fact.

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  95. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Don’t get me wrong Petey. I think Ring is an idiot and that Campbell is a petulant little twat for blowing his chance to demonstrate Ring’s stupidity to the chattering classes by losing his cool.

    It’s just that I think we should be open to alternative theories on what may help trigger earthquakes.

    The fact that a fool like Ring promulgates an idea is no reason to dismiss it out of hand as some here seem keen to do.

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  96. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    We have had more large earthquakes in the past 8 years than the previous 35, we have the Alpine fault loaded up to hell and potentially it’s northern off shoots as well. If there was ever a time for a geologist to hazard a guess or just give us a hunch it is bloody well now.
    Ken is doing it with perhaps some questionable science, but the “real” scientists are walking backwards out of loyalty to the scientific method.
    We need to use some theoretical geology here, and get every local authority to step it up and be ready for disaster mode.

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  97. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    The “real” scientists are not telling the truth to the masses either Shunda so as not to upset them.
    The “real” scientists of course mainly earn their dollars via the government.

    Not that anyone should draw any conclusions from this of course in case it upsets them. :)

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  98. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Has anyone else noticed that almost all the geologists interviewed have a strong foreign accent?
    Are we just funding the biggest outdoor lab in the country, or are we actually getting value for money here, because so far it looks like a ‘moon bat’ is showing them up.

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  99. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    That’s not fair Shunda.

    Our geological scientists are fine and we tend to attract many from overseas because of the nature of our country and the great opportunity for research here.

    It’s just that the people here are treated as fuckwits by the bureaucrats and the truth is withheld from them.

    The scientists mainly get paid by the government hence toe the line.

    None of this makes Ken Ring a credible authority on earthquakes.

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  100. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    ps: If you don’t think you are regarded as a fuckwit by the bureaucrats just try to get a straight answer out of all the wankers that work for the bloody council let alone the central government. :)

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  101. reid (16,702 comments) says:

    I don’t believe for a second the scientific community would hesitate in forming and publishing a bad news conclusion were it merited.

    That said it’s a historical fact as someone observed above, that scientists often miss the relevant P-score because they fail to look outside their own discipline.

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  102. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Johnboy, I have respect for the individual geologist, in some cases huge respect, but sometimes I get the feeling (like you allude to)
    that we are are all seen as morons.
    In my line of work I have clashed with both council staff, and DoC staff and can vouch for the attitude problem that exists with certain staff cultures.
    It drives me friggin nuts!!

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  103. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Ok, regarding Christchurch we had a geologist state that the 6.3 location and depth wasn’t a surprise because they had noticed aftershocks trending east towards the city and getting shallower.
    Did anyone in the public know that before last Tuesday? did the geologists tell the city officials that if the 6 happened under the city in line with this trend it would be terribly destructive?

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  104. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Yeah Shunda.

    Their whole culture evolves around arse self-protection and never dob in your peers no matter how incompetent cause someone else might do it to you later on.

    And here was silly little me thinking that Rodders was going to sweep it all away with his new broom. :)

    Perhaps, like Gadaffi, all the bureaucrats think we love them? :)

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  105. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    Ring has no physics to his claim. His methods has neither valid deduction nor induction (from first principles) to base his wild guesses on. He is no difference to what psychics & paranormal followers believe.

    Physics Nobel Laureate, late Richard Feynman, warned about that sort of pseudo-science that Ken Ring is promoting at a lecture he gave at CalTech in the 1970s. Feynman knew about what proper scientific investigation is about in comparison to bullsh*t & pseudo-science that Ken Ring is preaching about to the gullibles.

    CARGO CULT SCIENCE

    Ken Ring might as well joined up with the psychics on TV2 program called Sensing Murder.

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  106. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    It was known and not told to the public Shunda.

    I have that on very good authority.

    We are as mushrooms to them.

    Just like Mubarak’s/Gadaffi’s people.

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  107. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Ring is a tosser alright Fala but don’t you think that tidal forces can have some effect on fault line stress factors?

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  108. reid (16,702 comments) says:

    Ring has no physics to his claim. His methods has neither valid deduction nor induction (from first principles) to base his wild guesses on. He is no difference to what psychics & paranormal followers believe.

    It would be good however Falafulu if the “real” scientists could actually tell us a bit fucking more than they currently do. This is partly the issue.

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  109. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    That’s what I mean about it being treated like a laboratory, that approach may be fine down in Fiordland, but not when 300 000 people are in the firing line.
    If people getting a bit scared is the price for a qualified guess, then under the circumstances that is probably a reasonable price to pay, the victims in the CBD are not scared, they are no longer with us!.

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  110. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    In away, on a larger scale, the earthquake is a bit like a major traffic accident.

    The road is closed all the people sit around uniformed while the authorities go through their carefully rehearsed roles.

    Everything at the scene is gone over in infinite detail the authorities go through all the rehearsed motions to make sure none of them can be blamed later on for doing something wrong.

    Eventually after all the legal stuff is sorted they actually get round to dealing with the mushrooms.

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  111. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    Johnboy said…
    tidal forces can have some effect on fault line stress factors

    I’m not disputing that. It does have any effect. The dispute is, that scientists who have published peer reviewed articles on that link, haven’t come up with definitive model that strongly established that connection. Wait, but a school drop out from West Auckland, thinks he knew better that those scientists and that’s the issue I’m raising here. As I said in on of my post at the top, that there are papers I have googled which showed scientific studies that have implicated that link to tidal forces, but what I’ve read so far is not very definitive. Here are 2 of them:

    #1) Lunar and solar triggering of earthquakes

    #2) Variation of Lunar-Solar Tidal Force and Earthquakes in Taiwan Island of China

    The studies are pure induction, where the causal link is not established but inferred. I seriously doubt if Ken Ring understands those papers.

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  112. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Bit like Pike River really.

    They rely on the feel good factor to get them muddled through.

    Feel good factor ran out in Tunisa/Egypt/Lybia. :)

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  113. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    The saddest part Fala is that if Campbell was half as good as his ego tells him he is he would have buried the Ring person.

    A serious lapse on his part.

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  114. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    I hope it’s not like Pike River, because I now know a few things about Pike River……….

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  115. Nookin (3,569 comments) says:

    sb – publishable?

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  116. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    We, the mushrooms, are only here to vote them back in every three years Shunda.

    Hardly matters much if the compost is shoveled by an ugly hag or a likable, semi-retired, money shuffler.

    We all still end up in the shit. :)

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  117. Nookin (3,569 comments) says:

    Not sure if you’ve got the analogy right Johnboy. Mushrooms thrive on shit.

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  118. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    There are lots on the connection of tidal force and earthquakes, but here is another that I’m looking at right now which is freely downloadable.

    Connection of large earthquakes occurring moment with the movement of the Sun and the Moon and with the Earth crust tectonic stress character (appeared in Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Volume 10, Issue 7, 2010, pp.1629-1633)

    The model derivation is simple, but the main point to notice is that the model is based on first principles. It means that if the Sun & moon have some indirect (or perhaps minimal) effects in causing earthquakes, then it has to start from first principles (deduction). You can see that the model in the paper was derived using gravitation law (first principles), so one expects to see the gravitational constant G in the model, because the Sun/moon effect must be gravitational. Ken Ring has no understanding of that and I bet anyone here to show me otherwise that Ken does .

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  119. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Fuck!!!!!!!! We have just had a bit of a jolt in Mallardville.

    I think I might go out and check what the moon is doing. :)

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  120. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    The gravitational constant just moved for me Fala. :)

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  121. Nookin (3,569 comments) says:

    You’re not with or near Dime are you Johnboy?

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  122. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Here it is Nookin. :)

    The earth definitely moved

    http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/drums/wel-drum.html

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  123. adze (2,130 comments) says:

    Felt in Wilton (Welly) too Johnboy.

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  124. Gooner (919 comments) says:

    Why doesn’t someone just tell this as it is?

    John Campbell drooled all over Robyn Malcolm when Outrageous Fortune finished shooting. He was practically dry humping her on TV. Malcolm is a green party member, and likely candidate. Campbell is very good friends with her, and with Carol Hirschfeld who is married to Finlay Macdonald. Macdonald is a greenie too. Campbell is on record as saying he used to vote Alliance. These people despise Ken Ring, not because he claims to predict earthquakes using the oceans, but because he refutes the computer-modelled, hockey stick methodology of global warming.

    Campbell, Malcolm, Macdonald et al do not stand for opposing views on climate science. They treat it like heresy that someone else dares to say that warming might be caused by sun spots, or by the tides and the moon. They hate it because it puts to bed their orgasmic “tax the polluters” sermons.

    Campbell would have invited Ring on his show to take him apart. That’s his modus operandi. He would have phoned him and talked nicely to him, saying he was interested in his theory and wouldn’t it be nice to discuss it with the nation. Then he would have hatched a plan to make him look like a fool; because of ideological reasons, not for journalistic reasons.

    But the only person looking like a fool here was Campbell.

    I’ll give Campbell credit though, his apology was a good one, and I have no doubt he was sincere. But it’s too little too late.

    FWIW, I don’t believe earthquakes can be predicted like Ring does. But I do believe in at least giving him the chance to explain, especially when you invite him onto the show for that very purpose.

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  125. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Shit Gooner he must be desperate. She’s got a face like a horse! :)

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  126. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Here we go.

    Richter 4.5. 40k deep. 20k NW of Welly.

    http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/latest.html

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  127. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    No sign of the Moon though.

    Must have disappeared up its own ring I guess. :)

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  128. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    I think that the majority here missed the crucial point in the discussion. Ken Ring claims that whatever method he uses can predict the time-window of occurrence of earthquakes, while the scientific papers (4 so far), I’ve read have not established formulations (or functional relationships) that connect the dependent variable time T, (such as when an earthquake is expected to occur) to other independent physical variables such as gravity , earth’s rotation, etc,… This means that Ken Ring had developed a sophisticated model that leading mathematicians, physicists, geologists have completely missed. I mean, those scientists who eat, drink differential calculus in their daily work have not been able to come up with a time-dependent or time-evolution model that a school drop out from West Auckland definitely thinks he’s better than those scientists.

    The models I’ve seen so far are static & descriptive only and they’re not time-dependent (or time-evolution) based models. It means that the models can’t predict exactly when the earthquake is going to hit. However, Ken Ring thinks he can. Dang! Ken Ring deserves a Nobel Prize then (not in Physics but in fibbing). For those who don’t know what time-dependent model is, it is a model of one variable that depends on other independent variables which evolves with time? The dependent variable will have different value at different time. Such model can predict when an event can occur at a specific time. These sorts of time-dependent models have not been established and it is unlikely that there’s such model exists (in real world). Ken’s prediction indicates that he has somehow invented some time-dependent model that none of the worlds’ top scientists have a clue about.

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  129. Nookin (3,569 comments) says:

    FF
    Is that a technical way of saying that he talks bullshit?

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  130. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    “I think that the majority here missed”

    Not at all Fala. You have derived your conclusion by application of sound scientific principles.

    We simpletons realised Ken was a tosser as soon as he was stupid enough to appear on the JC ego trip show. :)

    Q.E.D. :)

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  131. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    Must have disappeared up its own ring I guess. :)

    :D

    Campbell has been known to irritate Rings.

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  132. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    Spot the two ringers folks. :)

    http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/recent_quakes.html

    Fucken Moon. :)

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  133. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    sb – publishable?

    No, my source is too close to the tragedy, but most locals have got a pretty good idea now.
    Talking to miners from Spring Creek is very interesting indeed.

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  134. Shunda barunda (2,986 comments) says:

    The Moon has a lot to answer for John boy.

    Earth quakes
    Crime lighting
    Fake landings
    Lunatics
    Werewolf attacks…………

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  135. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    I’ve only met Ken Ring once at a lecture at University of Auckland, Engineering School by a UK economist (forgot his name) from a few years ago, who’s a strong critique of Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change .

    I attended as a skeptic on climate change and so did Ken Ring. I met him briefly outside the foyer and said hello and I advised him, to stop spouting anymore of his bullsh*t on moon-caused global warming at the NZ Climate Science Coalition debates since his messages were mostly overshadowed the legitimate scientific debates over there (from both warmists & skeptics) with his non-scientific nonsense. Ken Ring popping in there to promote his moon-caused global warming made all the skeptics (those who have scientific background) look loony. He wasn’t receptive to my advise, so he took off. Ken’s enemy number #1 at NZCS coalition debates was Gareth Renowden (science wannabe farmer & children book’s writer from Hot-Topic blog). Ken & Gareth used to dominates most debating threads there at NZCS, so no one posted any scientific arguments because Ken & Gareth were attacking each other.

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  136. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    John Campbells’s apology for duffing the interview:

    John Campbell to Ken Ring: I am sincerely sorry

    Last night we had Ken Ring on the programme.

    It will have been apparent to anyone watching that I don’t believe he can predict earthquakes.

    Nor do any of the scientists here.

    But many people I’ve spoken to in this city do – and Mr Ring’s predictions terrify them.

    After a week here watching this city shouldering the burden of last Tuesday, I believe, with all my heart, that Christchurch doesn’t need that kind of stress.

    They are hurting enough already.

    But I should have kept my heart out of it – or kept it under control – and as many of you have pointed out, I should have let Mr Ring speak.

    You’re right. I should have. He was our guest.

    I have phoned Mr Ring to personally apologise.

    I repeat that apology to him now and I want to extend it to everyone watching who was offended by my treatment of Mr Ring.

    I am sincerely sorry.

    We did invite Mr Ring back onto the programme tonight, promising him a far fairer hearing.

    He declined.

    Ken Ring’s apology for adding stress to already fraught people with bogus science:

    0

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  137. Falafulu Fisi (2,141 comments) says:

    I mentioned in my previous message about time-dependent function of a physical observable. Here is what such time-dependent function looks like. The Schrodinger Equation is a time-dependent function. The Schrodinger model involves a parameter time ‘t’ in the expression. It means that one has the ability to track or estimate the state of that physical observable at future times. As far as I know (based on my limited knowledge & reading on earthquake predictions), there is no such time-dependent model at all to do earthquake predictions unless they exist but I’m not aware of those models.

    Ken Ring’s claim is obviously time-dependent, whether he understands what it is or not. WHY? Because he claims to predict future dates of when earthquakes do occur. Formulating & modelling of time-dependent & dynamic functions in physics in general is one of the most difficult areas of modern science. It seems that Ken Ring had developed some time-dependent prediction function that top scientists from around the world have completely missed or shall I say, they have been unable to crack. May be Ken Ring can publish his model for all to see. The Nobel committee may award him a prize as a result of his ground breaking theory.

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  138. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    At best, Ring’s opinions/predictions are next to useless.

    If we accept what Ring (and scientists) claim and the moon does influence eathquakes, the best that anyone can do is show time periods in relation to moon phases when earthquakes are a bit more likely to occur.

    The moon method:
    – may indicate increased likelihood of earthquakes in a hemisphere or worldwide (give or take a few days)
    – cannot predict where an earthquake will occur (which country or where in a country)
    – cannot preduict which faultline will be involved
    – cannot predict the time (or day) any one earthquake will occur
    – cannot predict the strength and damaging effect any one earthquake will have
    – cannot rule out a major earthquake occuring at a different time

    At best, the moon method is next to useless.

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  139. Scott (1,807 comments) says:

    Thank you to Gooner at 10:30 PM for his analysis. I think he nails the reasons for John Campbell’s incredible rudeness. It is essentially a religious article of faith, the left’s belief in global warming.
    The Earth is warming up, something must be done, we must tax everything and go to a clean green economy immediately. Or else the world is doomed! This is an article of faith for the left and gives them purpose and meaning to their lives.

    When analysing John Campbell I think Gooner is right on the money. He is a man of the hard left, don’t forget his attack interview on Helen Clark was from the left of her. In other words he is to the left of Helen Clark.

    The other interview I remember where Campbell was incredibly rude was a poor guy from Vodafone who was trying to show off the new Apple iPhone. Campbell berated him about excessive rates that Vodafone was charging for data. The poor guy just wanted to show off this cool new phone. I would have liked to have heard about this cool new phone.

    But John knew better. He just berated this guy the whole time. Perhaps he has a bee in his bonnet about capitalism? Thank you Gooner — it is all starting to make sense.

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  140. PhilBest (4,757 comments) says:

    Agree 100% with Gooner; I re-emerged here specifically to make that very point because I regarded it as important. Gooner beat me to it.

    I actually “posted” a comment 12 hours ago on a Yahoo News thread on this subject, saying pretty much the same thing. Guess what? It didn’t appear. It is sickening and frightening just how deep Al Gore Inc’s tentacles reach.

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  141. Pete George (23,814 comments) says:

    Trying to link this with climate change and Al Gore is a bit desperate. Nothing to do with that.

    Campbell over-reacted to Ring’s thoughtless scare mongering on earthquake predictions. That’s all.

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  142. shady (246 comments) says:

    It appears that seismologists have been studying the effect of the moon on earthquakes – and according to their studies, Ken Ring should probably be afforded more consideration.
    http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-10-21/science/28264505_1_earthquake-magnitude-seismologist

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  143. Dan (39 comments) says:

    Re: Campbell’s apology:

    I’m not wanting to give credence to Ring, but surely Campbell should have done better in his lead-up to interviewing Ring by showing us interviews with some of the “many people who found Ring’s predictions terrifying”, instead of a number of people who agreed with Ring’s opinions and had prepared themselves with suitable first-aid kits, fresh water supplies, and contingency plans.

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  144. sparkyspitz (7 comments) says:

    Just reposting my 2 cents from March 1st GeneralDebate

    And it does link to Al Gore and the man made climate change issue because it is a possible alternative theory to the Establishment. As we know all dissent must be quashed.

    I read Ken’s articles about the origins of the Carbon Trading ‘scheme’ (their words). I believe the business model was along the same lines as Enron.

    I’m not saying Ken’s climate change or earthquake prediction methods are correct, that really isn’t what it’s about. The issue is him having viable alternatives to the Establishment dogma that underpins a global system of Tyrrany.

    “I suspect John Campbell (and his producers) as gatekeepers for the powers that were, had a wee bit of a dilemma when it came to Ken Ring.

    Evidently Campbells viewers were wanting to hear from Ken. If they didn’t have him on, people would be wondering why not.

    If they did have him on, would people listen and become curious and start investigating for themselves, maybe spend some time reading Ken’s website?

    What might they find there? Hmmm could it be an alternative view points to the Government and Campbells man made global warming position?

    The poor wee lambs might be exposed to different ideas to the approved establishment viewpoint which both the Government and Campbell are heavily invested in.

    Ken Ring is Kryptonite to the man made global warming paradigm. His theory must not be allowed to gain any traction.
    People must not have reason to question authority.

    Mr Ring may not have the right Uni degrees, but his livelihood depends on there being value in the information he present. The same cannot be said for the Wonks with the tax payer funded guaranteed Government paycheck.

    The monopoly on information is challenged and Campbell becomes belligerant.

    Oh what a show!”

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