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iPredict on electorate contests

March 31st, 2011 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

iPredict now has all 70 electorates listed so let’s look at what the market is saying about the probability of each seat being held:

  1. Clutha-Southland 97.7%
  2. Hutt South 97.5%
  3. Botany 95.3%
  4. Mangere 95.3%
  5. Tamaki 95.3%
  6. Mt Roskill 95.3%
  7. Taranaki-King Country 95.3%
  8. Helensville 95.1%
  9. Pakuranga 95.1%
  10. Coromandel 95.1%
  11. Rotorua 95.1%
  12. Dunedin South 95.1%
  13. East Coast Bays 95.0%
  14. Wigram 95.0% (to go to Labour)
  15. Hunua 95.0%
  16. Hamilton East 95.0%
  17. Manurewa 95.0%
  18. North Shore 95.0%
  19. Mt Albert 95.0%
  20. Tauranga 95.0%
  21. Taupo 95.0%
  22. Ilam 94.7%
  23. Nelson 92.6%
  24. Papakura 92.5%
  25. Waikato 92.5%
  26. East Coast 92.5%
  27. Northland 92.5%
  28. Christchurch East 92.5%
  29. Kaikoura 92.2%
  30. Rodney 92.2%
  31. Selwyn 90.0%
  32. Tukituki 90.0%
  33. Bay of Plenty 90.0%
  34. Whangarei 90.0%
  35. Manukau East 90.0%
  36. Rangitata 89.4%
  37. New Lynn 88.8%
  38. Wellington Central 88.8%
  39. Invercargill 88.1%
  40. Mana 88.1%
  41. Rongotai 87.4%
  42. Whanganui 87.4%
  43. Waitaki 87.4%
  44. Dunedin North 87.4%
  45. Napier 86.6%
  46. Rangitikei 86.6%
  47. Northcote 85.8%
  48. Port Hills 84.1%
  49. Rimutaka 83.2%
  50. Christchurch Central 83.2%
  51. Otaki 82.3%
  52. Waiariki 82.3%
  53. Hamilton West 81.3%
  54. Wairarapa 81.3%
  55. Te Atatu 80.2%
  56. Te Tai Tokerau 79.1%
  57. Tamaki Makaurau 78.0%
  58. Palmerston North 76.9%
  59. Te Tai Hauauru 76.9%
  60. Maungakiekie 75.7%
  61. Waimakariri 73.1%
  62. Auckland Central 71.0%
  63. Hauraki-Waikato 70.4%
  64. Epsom 66.1%
  65. Waitakere 58.3%
  66. Ohariu 58.0%
  67. New Plymouth 48.3%
  68. West Coast-Tasman 48.3%
  69. Te Tai Tonga 46.7%
  70. Ikaroa-Rawhiti 45.0%

So there are seven seats which are rated greater than 30% probability of changing hands – one held by ACT, one by United, three by National, one by Maori Party and one by Labour. Only four of the seven are deemed over 50% probability, with Ikaroa-Rawhiti deemd most likely to change hands.

There are a further eight seats deemed between 20% and 30% likely to swap hands. One is held by Hone Harawira, two by the Maori Party, three by Labour and two by National.

Related posts:

  1. Electorate Results
  2. Labour candidates getting Green votes
  3. Labour candidates picking up National voters
  4. iPredict Election Update #46: Labour’s prospects better than in TV polls
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9 Responses to “iPredict on electorate contests”

  1. fizzleplug (72) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 2:15 pm

    Because I’m lazy and can’t be bothered looking it up, perhaps you could list the current member and party for each seat?

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  2. dog_eat_dog (599) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 2:23 pm

    Tamaki seems like a good bargain to short, I think Mr. B will be quite popular out there.

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  3. Grizz (432) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 3:23 pm

    If National puts up a good candidate in Mount Roskill then its all on.

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  4. OTGO (365) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    Let’s just make the parliamentary term 4 years and be done with it. Or more interesting have a centre right party in for 2 x 4 year terms and a centre left party in for 1 x 4 year term as balance. Think of the savings!!!!!!

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  5. Auberon (749) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 5:01 pm

    Mad Dog Cosgrove should be very afraid.

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  6. IHStewart (388) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 5:04 pm

    Surprising how close New Plymouth is, Little needs to win the seat to have real credibility. Griz not a chance Goff will lose the seat, I know he managed to once before but the circumstances are very different this time round. Also he is a very good electorate MP I have never talked to him over issues I felt I need to raise with my MP ie. some stupid bureaucrat pissing me off but I have talked to his office people and they are excellent.

    Off thread slightly DPF but given the Whales latest in Texts from New York

    http://whaleoil.gotcha.co.nz/?p=22084#comments

    I hope you are correct in your assertion that they aren’t fictional to me on previous blog

    ” You can’t make shit this good up. ”

    Not so sure about that the Whale has been giving it a fairly good go with his Texts from New York.

    http://whaleoil.gotcha.co.nz/?p=21983#comments

    [DPF: What makes you think they are made up?] “

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  7. Fisiani (670) Says:
    March 31st, 2011 at 8:39 pm

    Plenty of money to be made in Wellington Central by backing National to win.

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  8. pq (728) Says:
    April 1st, 2011 at 8:25 pm

    Epsom safe

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  9. Mike Readman (335) Says:
    April 3rd, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    Seems funny Waimak and Chch Central are so high considering the wafer thin margins last election.

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