iPredict on electorate contests

iPredict now has all 70 electorates listed so let's look at what the market is saying about the probability of each seat being held:

  1. Clutha- 97.7%
  2. Hutt South 97.5%
  3. Botany 95.3%
  4. Mangere 95.3%
  5. Tamaki 95.3%
  6. Mt Roskill 95.3%
  7. -King Country 95.3%
  8. Helensville 95.1%
  9. Pakuranga 95.1%
  10. 95.1%
  11. Rotorua 95.1%
  12. Dunedin South 95.1%
  13. East Coast Bays 95.0%
  14. Wigram 95.0% (to go to Labour)
  15. Hunua 95.0%
  16. Hamilton East 95.0%
  17. Manurewa 95.0%
  18. North Shore 95.0%
  19. Mt Albert 95.0%
  20. Tauranga 95.0%
  21. Taupo 95.0%
  22. Ilam 94.7%
  23. Nelson 92.6%
  24. Papakura 92.5%
  25. Waikato 92.5%
  26. East Coast 92.5%
  27. Northland 92.5%
  28. Christchurch East 92.5%
  29. Kaikoura 92.2%
  30. Rodney 92.2%
  31. Selwyn 90.0%
  32. Tukituki 90.0%
  33. Bay of Plenty 90.0%
  34. Whangarei 90.0%
  35. Manukau East 90.0%
  36. Rangitata 89.4%
  37. New Lynn 88.8%
  38. Wellington Central 88.8%
  39. Invercargill 88.1%
  40. Mana 88.1%
  41. 87.4%
  42. 87.4%
  43. Waitaki 87.4%
  44. 87.4%
  45. Napier 86.6%
  46. Rangitikei 86.6%
  47. Northcote 85.8%
  48. Port Hills 84.1%
  49. Rimutaka 83.2%
  50. Christchurch Central 83.2%
  51. Otaki 82.3%
  52. Waiariki 82.3%
  53. Hamilton West 81.3%
  54. Wairarapa 81.3%
  55. Te Atatu 80.2%
  56. Te Tai Tokerau 79.1%
  57. Tamaki Makaurau 78.0%
  58. Palmerston North 76.9%
  59. Te Tai Hauauru 76.9%
  60. 75.7%
  61. Waimakariri 73.1%
  62. Auckland Central 71.0%
  63. 70.4%
  64. Epsom 66.1%
  65. Waitakere 58.3%
  66. Ohariu 58.0%
  67. New Plymouth 48.3%
  68. West Coast-Tasman 48.3%
  69. Te Tai Tonga 46.7%
  70. 45.0%

So there are seven seats which are rated greater than 30% probability of changing hands – one held by ACT, one by United, three by , one by Maori Party and one by Labour. Only four of the seven are deemed over 50% probability, with Ikaroa-Rawhiti deemd most likely to change hands.

There are a further eight seats deemed between 20% and 30% likely to swap hands. One is held by Hone Harawira, two by the Maori Party, three by Labour and two by National.