Who will be the next Justice Minister
iPredict has a range of stocks on who will be the Justice Minister after the election. The prices and hence probabilities are:
- Judith Collins 45%
- Chris Finlayson 20.95
- Simon Bridges 8.3%
- Other Labour MP 5.7%
- Chester Borrows 5.4%
- Kate Wilkinson 2.7%
- Amy Adams 2.7%
- Charles Chauvel 2.7%
- Other Nat MP 1.7%
- Other MP 0.1%
- Winston Peters 0.0%
The Minister of Justice is normally a lawyer, but not always – Tony Ryall was Justice Minister and is not a lawyer. It is unusual to have one Minister as both Justice and Attorney-General also.
I think the market is right in saying it is not likely Winston Peters will be Justice Minister. The reason for this is that portfolio is far far too much hard work.
Winston prefers portfolios with glamour, but where officials do all the work. He’s already done Treasurer and Foreign Minister. So what, I ponder, could Phil Goff offer him in a Labour-Greens-Winston-Hone Government if they get the numbers for it?
There is really only one portfolio left that fits Winston’s criteria. Attorney-General!! Winston will be in charge of the judiciary and the SFO.