Dalziel’s no list decision
April 9th, 2011 at 2:00 pm by David FarrarThe Herald reports:
Christchurch East MP Lianne Dalziel will not stand on her party’s list this election, saying if the people from Christchurch do not want her to return as their electorate MP she would prefer to leave Parliament altogether.
Ms Dalziel is one of only two MPs who have spurned the safety of the party’s list for the election this November.
Labour’s moderating committee will meet to complete the list rankings tomorrow and most sitting MPs usually secure high enough places to stay in Parliament.
Only Ms Dalziel and Ross Robertson, who has the safe seat of Manukau East and has consistently refused to go on the list, are not going on it this year.
This is a very curious decision. MPs are generally encouraged to be on the list. Generally there are two reasons an MP will refuse to go on the list:
- They are worried they may get a ranking which will embarrass them
- They are worried that they may lose their seat, and want to send out a signal that if you don’t vote for them in the electorate, then they won’t be in Parliament at all
Ross Robertson clearly fits into category one. He knows he will be ranked lowly by the party, so why bother – he doesn’t need a list safety net anyway.
Dalziel was ranked No 15 in 2008, on Labour’s list. She is one of the few Labour Chairs of a Select Committee, and is generally fairly well regarded. I can’t imagine she is worried about a low list ranking.
So it is No 2. But her majority in 2008 was 5,765. Why would she feel the need to go off the list, unless she felt there was some risk of losing. So why does she think she may lose to Aaron Gilmore?
Tags: Christchurch East, Lianne Dalziel
April 9th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
She recognises that one day he will be Prime Minister: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Aaron-Gilmore-for-Prime-Minister/118195268201661?ref=ts
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
I think it’s to detract from the anti-MMP list sentiment her party has been copping and to look strengthened when Christchurch East returns her at the election. With the negative sentiment over a supposed lack of government help for those in the Eastern Suburbs, I can’t see her majority being reduced (bar earthquake-related issues affecting the turnout).
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
I think she has found a good way to keep her name in the news and to build momentum towards the general election. This will of course be the next launching pad for her bid at the mayoralty of ChCh. If she can’t get returned as a local electorate MP then she has no chance of beating Soundbite Bob in a head to head mayoral race. Come November 26th I am sure she will romp in.
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Publicity stunt more targeted at a 2013 mayoral campaign
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
In Eastern Chch Gilmore is laughing-stock. At a meeting I heard one person say look Gilmore is there must be cameras near
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
Really Inky. Was it you that said that, and then you heard the echo?
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Given the obsession with Tizard, I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned that taking oneself off the list means there’s room for somebody else.
[DPF: Only if you lose your electorate]
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
I think reasons 1 and 2 are too narrow. She is likely disgusted with Goff, and none too impressed with possible (male) successors. She could be pissed off with the sudden elevation of David Whatshisname to education and unhappy with Labour’s generally muted response to the earthquake and the plight of the Eastern suburbs.. (remember she’s credited as the first pollie to politicise the situation) and took a huge crack at the City Council along with the Nats several weeks ago.
I’d look for further statements from her indicating she’s going to use the situation in the Eastern suburbs to build an angry base that can be used for either her seat and/or a tilt at the mayoralty. I’d expect some pretty vicious statements out of her in the future.. and plenty leveled at Phil.
I think this is one angry lady.
JC
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
And then go independent at the next GE…
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
I said that Gilmore I have not seen him around except on TV behind Key. The response was from the nearest person to me who I had never meet
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
“…saying if the people from Christchurch do not want her to return as their electorate MP she would prefer to leave Parliament altogether.”
Maybe she just means what she says and is there to represent Chch?
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
She did not enjoy being a list MP when she was one. Hardly surprising she does not want to be one now. I doubt that Labour will lose a seat in Christchurch (they will pick up Wigram)
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 6:01 pm
[DPF: Only if you lose your electorate]
Not putting yourself up for the list means you’ve spared the powers that be the whole “do we put this person high up on the list and piss somebody or some other faction off” come list selection time. This could either be a favour to the party or a snub depending on who or what you believe.
It means you’re no longer a rival for other candidates seeking list places. It could be a way of insulating herself from some turmoil which she may be anticipating.
Here’s a random theory, having a high list ranking may be a symbol of being close to the current leader, and not be all that attractive if there were a change in leadership. Although I say this without actually knowing what Labour’s list selection processes are.
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 6:27 pm
There is another reason – you may have done the numbers post Mana and post Hughes mishandling then realised that if your seat is toast, you along with 20 other MPs will be gone from Parliament. If you don’t want to be part of a diminished caucus of 25-30 Labour tired old MPs declining a list place will mean you won’t embarass Labour in December by admitting a cleanout is necessary.
If you turn the result around and end up with 40 MPs you might have a majority of 2000.
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
Inky
You clearly have not been in the area. Full stop. Get the facts before you launch into print. I think if you do a bit of research you will find it a bit different. And I have no intention of doing the research for you.
Ivory
The proven liar from East CHCH is only after one thing and that is Bob’s job. She will get in on the 26th Nov but bail out as soon as the Mayors job is up for grabs. In any case I would bet on Bob not standing next time as he will have had more than enough.
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
If Labour is having a problem getting fresh faces higher on the list it makes sense for an older one to drop off it, even if the fact that she is likely to win her seat means that a fresh face doesn’t make it in the party profile from the list would look just that much better. She is tribal Labour and would help the party out, if she wins her seat why worry about list ranking anyway?
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
I think this is actually a very smart move. I hope that more pollies see that resorting to the safety of a list is perceived as ‘scummy’. This gives her a great platform to campaign on, and if unsuccessful, she can retreat with some dignity, unlike many others.
Vote:April 9th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
She’s increasing the odds that Andrew Little doesn’t make it in on the Labour list.
Vote:April 10th, 2011 at 12:03 am
I live in Christchurch, tonight I was in New Brighton. I have been there. I have talked to people who still live there.
Even those who didn’t like Dalziel before hand have a respect for her now.
Vote:April 10th, 2011 at 7:50 am
MMP is so fucked up. What happened to the idea of having to be elected to get into parliament? The referendum can’t come soon enough.
Vote:April 10th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Dalziel is safe in CHCH east.
She has given them her ear to hear their complaints of how the central city was priority in the aftermath of the quake and they felt isolated and ignored by civil defence. She has spoken out against the national and city council running of the recovery – a fairly lone political voice as it happens. CHCH east consists of poorer suburbs, less resilient in the face of the quake, and heartland Labour. While it looks like a bold move, and less cut in the craven trougher mould we are used to seeing in Labour, it isn’t really *that* bold. She is confident of her safety and its based on reality.
But yes, it does throw down the gauntlet at other MPs – including would be Labour leaders like Andrew Little.
Perhaps Dalziel wants a crack at the top job in Labour should Little fail to win New Plymouth?
Vote:April 11th, 2011 at 11:50 am
Dalziel is not “in” with Goff or King. She has been sidelined to an extent by them and probably has thought stuff them, I’ll just go with the electorate. Who knows perhaps she is making a point on principle.
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