By the numbers
May 30th, 2011 at 11:19 am by David FarrarMy blog post at Stuff on last night’s TV polls is up. It’s title is “Sixty-five seats is not bulletproof”. An extract:
However, it is worth stressing that a projected 65 seats is not bulletproof. The House is forecast to have 123 MPs, so you will need 62 to govern. On the plus side ACT and United Future look like they can deliver a further four seats. On the negative side, there is the possibility NZ First makes 5%.
It is also likely that National will see some loss of support during the election campaign proper. So while National is in a good position, no one should think the outcome of the election is settled. As former British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan once quipped “Events dear boy, events” can blow a Government off course.
Comments can be made over at Stuff.
Related posts:
- Stuff: The election outcome is not settled
- The numbers in Mt Albert
- HMNZS National
- Maori Seats policy not a bottom line for National
May 30th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Actually 65 IS bulletproof. Its kind of the text book defnition of bulletproof.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
The numbers look like same old really. There’s a bit of flurrying around the fringes but nothing much significant changing.
What about injecting a game changer into the mix? A party that keeps listening and acts based on what constituents want. There seems to be a lot of people dusgruntled with current optins, surely there’s a need to cater for them.
Nothing much seems to be affecting National’s position, but there must be room for a better alternative, a real alternative.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
PG, is giving people what they want the best solution for the country? And it is impossible to deliver anyway! Nearly everyone wants to pay less tax and other people to pay more – how do you resolve that one? Nearly everyone wants more government spending on their pet likes and less on their pet hates – how do you resolve that one?
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Anthony – I know you can’t give everyone everything they want. We have to accept that things need to done on a democratic basis, and the greater good often needs to override individual wishes.
But a lot of people would like to be considered and listened to more, not just for a short period until they have voted.
What many people do want is better representation and that can be given to them.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Pete, have a look at OURNZ. http://www.ournz.net.nz
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Ross – “The simple fact is, before Government debt, there was no taxation ” is that site some kind of piss-take?
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
ross – something similar in ways, but different, that’s more of the old way, more like a traditional party. They have clearly defined policies, that’s ok if everyone in every electorate agrees with everything, but still isn’t much use for a minority presence as they are ideals, not achievables.
I’d prefer to see electorate input sought for how to deal with any important issues on an ongoing basis.
More electorate independence, recognising diverse needs and wishes.
Inform the electorate, listen to the electorate, act for the electorate. Isn’t that what people would like?
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
I love every move my stupid uncle Fill Gap makes. He has only one policy up his sleeve. Tax the rich, spend the money. He doesn’t realise, the moment GST is taken off fresh fruit and veges, the super markets will increase the price to pocket the extra price. The apple will still be $3.99/KG whether there is GST on it or not….
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Well the post sure got the nig nogs going. Thought it was quite well balanced but plenty don’t. One even suggested DPF go to the Standard for a reference on how to blog without bias. durrrrrr
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Bummer Bradbury has gone batshit insane over this. Maybe now the worthless media whore will get the column he’s been hinting furiously for.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Viking, I think you missed the sarcasm.
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