By the numbers

My blog post at Stuff on last night's TV polls is up. It's title is “Sixty-five seats is not bulletproof”. An extract:

However, it is worth stressing that a projected 65 seats is not bulletproof. The House is forecast to have 123 , so you will need 62 to govern. On the plus side ACT and United Future look like they can deliver a further four seats. On the negative side, there is the possibility makes 5%.

It is also likely that will see some loss of support during the election campaign proper. So while National is in a good position, no one should think the outcome of the election is settled. As former British Harold MacMillan once quipped “Events dear boy, events” can blow a Government off course. 

Comments can be made over at Stuff.

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