By the numbers

My blog post at Stuff on last night’s TV polls is up. It’s title is “Sixty-five seats is not bulletproof”. An extract:

However, it is worth stressing that a projected 65 seats is not bulletproof. The House is forecast to have 123 MPs, so you will need 62 to govern. On the plus side ACT and United Future look like they can deliver a further four seats. On the negative side, there is the possibility NZ First makes 5%.

It is also likely that National will see some loss of support during the election campaign proper. So while National is in a good position, no one should think the outcome of the election is settled. As former British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan once quipped “Events dear boy, events” can blow a Government off course. 

Comments can be made over at Stuff.