How much of a bump will Obama get?
May 4th, 2011 at 7:00 am by David FarrarThe more I read about the Osama operation, the more you realise what a risk it was. This wasn’t some dumb luck, or bombs hitting the right place. It is a story of intelligence agencies piecing together a puzzle over many months, and then havign enough trust in the intelligence, but also the SEALs, to send a team in. If the mission had turned out the same as Jimmy Carter’s helicopters in Iran, then Obama would probably be joining Carter as a one term President.
But the mission was flawless – no soldiers dead, no civilians dead, no neighbour destroyed etc.
Now this will not guarantee Obama is re-elected, but it sure will give his poll numbers a boost for a fair while. And it will pretty much permamently put heed to any notion of him not being tough enough on the war on terror.
Nate Silver blogs:
Historically, the correlation between a president’s overall approval rating and his rating on foreign affairs is stronger than is the case with his rating on the economy. If you place the two variables into a regression equation, it finds that foreign affairs is the more important component, although both are clearly statistically significant.
That is a surprise, as common wisdom is economic issues trump everything.
Unless the economic indicators significantly outperform consensus expectations, the election is still liable to be fairly close, with Mr. Obama hardly assured of coming out on top.
I think one of the boggest factors will be the quality of the Republican candidate also. Donald Trump is threatening to turn the race into a joke.
Related posts:
- Obama is to be the 44th President
- Obama and Romney
- Obama on gay marriage
- Obama wins over Latin America
May 4th, 2011 at 7:18 am
Well it certainly didn’t help George H.W. Bush in the aftermath of the 1st Gulf war, with the recession and his broken tax pledge sealing his demise.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 7:27 am
I heard Donald Trump’s toupee is gunning for Vice President.
Hairy situation.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 7:29 am
I think one of the boggest factors will be the quality of the Republican candidate also.
Yes, the Republicans risk getting bogged down with too many joke candidates. Imagine a Trump/Palin combo.
I’m not surprised foreign affairs at least rivals the economy in importance in the US, they seem to like their perceived foreign esteem. Here in NZ foreign affairs won’t have anywhere near the same weight.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 7:48 am
The latest Rassmussen Poll showed no improvement in the numbers satisfied with Obama.
Vote:But there were slightly fewer strongly disatisfied.
The trouble with the Obamaphiles claiming some great victory is that the killing was everything they opposed.
Obama and Biden opposed waterboarding and the intelligence came from that.
Nancy Pelosi once said getting Osama was no big deal, but she had changed her tune yesterday.
We also hear that Obama knew of Bin Laden’s whereabouts since last August.
The military has been keen for a strike for some time, but it seems that Obama wobbled and wobbled!
Not the great victory the Obamaphiles would have it!
http://fairfactsmedia.com/?p=7333
May 4th, 2011 at 7:55 am
What a difference five years makes.
Nancy Pelosi, press conference, September 7, 2006: “Even if [Osama bin Laden] is caught tomorrow, it is five years too late. He has done more damage the longer he has been out there. But, in fact, the damage that he has done is done. And even to capture him now I don’t think makes us any safer.”
The same Pelosi yesterday: “The death of Osama bin Laden marks the most significant development in our fight against al-Qaida. I salute President Obama, his national security team, Director Panetta, our men and women in the intelligence community and military, and other nations who supported this effort for their leadership in achieving this major accomplishment. The death of Osama bin Laden is historic.“
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:03 am
Just before you accord too much to the possibilities of Trump, one way or another, check out this from an old time US newspaperman writing for the Star Ledger.
The most plausible explanation for Trump:
http://blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2011/04/donald_trump_is_really_a_mole.html
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:12 am
Some 15 or 20 years ago the US intelligence agencies decided that they didnt need people on the ground any more in places around the world to gather ‘intellegence’. They thought that the new wiz bang toys (weapons) they were developing would enable them to replace all the old 007 types.
So when airplanes started running into buildings the US intellegence people had the information that would have warned them, but due to their belief that machines (and not people) would solve all their intellegence problems, they had abandoned systems to pick up information from people and we know what happened.
Its taken many years for them to re-establish networks of real people agents and after many mistakes and far too many wasted lives it seems that they have finally got themselves organised.
There is simply no way that machines can makes sense of such details that have come out of this episode in Pakistan. Things like: they (Bin Ladens house) never had any rubbish collected (it was all disposed on site), no one ever went shopping (it seems they got neighbours to do all that), no TV, no internet, next door to the locals top military unit, etc.
You need real people to notice and makes sense of all this stuff.
Despite this successful event, it still in no lets the US intellegence people off the hook for their awful failure in 2001 when they actually had the information about the airplane attacks but were too arrogant to use it.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:24 am
It’s a well known political truism that the economy with jobs,business climate have far more impact over election results than foreign affairs.” Its the economy stupid”
Vote:When Saddem Hussain was captured did that in the long term help the GOP . Of course not.
Obama’s economic efforts have dragged the USA to the level of Greece,Portugal and Ireland.
People without a job certainly will regard Bin Laden’s death as being nice but of little direct impact on their own life.
Don’t get me wrong,Bin Laden’s removal is great but let’s recognize the US security groups and the military. Obama’s support for these groups have always been in doubt.
In the US summer holidays,rising petrol prices will have more impact than BL death.
States like Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvania and Illinois rich in electoral votes and also high unemployment need more than the BL death to encourage Obama greatly.
9 percent unemployment is a much bigger problem than Osama Bin Laden within the US.
May 4th, 2011 at 8:25 am
The Republican race will be very interesting, perhaps a mirror of 1992 when a lot of the Democrate grandees such as Mario Cuomo and Al Gore decided not to run because they thought HW Bush was a shoe-in. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of the more notable candidates look to hold off until 2016. Of course, we all know what happened in 1992…
I saw FOX analysts comparing Obama to Bush Sr, noting that at the same time Bush was popular after the Gulf War, but fell off after Hurricane Andrew and the decline in the economy. Bush also had the compromise with Congress over taxes which pretty much ruined his standing after his “read my lips” promise, which saw a big backlash from voters. It’ll be interesting whether similar things will happen to Obama.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:27 am
Obama sat there calm as he watched Bin Laden being shot in the eye, meanwhile Hillary Clinton had her hand over her mouth in horror. I am sure Obama tested the operational plans carefully and then gave the go ahead. Obama became “Commander in Chief” regarding this mission, but there have been other engagements which he has approved. The military have got a whole lot better at this sort of thing. It would be speculative to say whether Obama “added value” to the planning but I am sure he questioned the rules of engagement very closely. He will get a poll bounce out of this for sure.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:27 am
Donald Trump is a democrat and is not running.
The quality of the Republican candidate is largely irrelevant, the election will be about Obama and unless economic factors turn around he is toast.
On foreign policy/the war on terror, he still has the outcomes in the middle east to deal with and the Underwear bomber, Ft Hood, and the Christmas Day bomber on his record.
Inflation is starting to kick in in the US, Obama is contributing to high gas prices by not allowing drilling in America and halting critical pipelines in Dakota. If the dollar continues to weaken, prices will continue to skyrocket.
Unless the economy improves Obama is fucked.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:31 am
Herman Cain (Pres.) & Sarah Palin (VP).
Vote:But the extreme socialist and antichristian media would never allow it.
May 4th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Dont think so Sonny B … and which Republican will “fuck” him ? you must have a super candidate in mind ….
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:32 am
What has DPF got against Trumpy? Actually, I see strong similarities between the two! Both in business. Both have hair-retention challenges. A similar comic timing when in buffoon mode. I could go on, but you get my drift…
A point or two about the raid:
it would have been a lot more entertaining, and maybe helpful to Obama’s poll ratings, if the Pakistani air force had woken up in time to take a looksee at the invaders. A bit of Top Gun stuff goes down well in the US (no pun intended), assuming the good guys win.
And, why couldn’t we have all watched what Obama, Hilary and the others saw on their screen, live, just like them? I mean, Obama needs re-election funds, surely TV would have paid huuuuge dollars for a live scoop like that!
Hell, I would’ve dipped into my own pockets! Well, pocket.
However, seriously now, Obama hasn’t exactly been in high five mode after his little live cinema show. He undoubtedly saw close up, on his orders, an unarmed man’s head blown apart, brains splattered on the ceiling and walls.
Yes, folks, it’s just been confirmed by the US, Bin Laden was unarmed. He was executed.
Now, while I’m here, we were discussing this on another thread, but never mind the technicalities, I’m a busy boy, poor ol’ DPF was angsting yesterday how the frail old man might escape the clutches of America’s finest and most highly trained young killers (All our wives would just love a night with one, I’m sure) – he might escape! God (or Allah) forbid.
And I’m just watching Al Jazeera, the LSE Head of ME studies putting DPF’s Global Army of Al Qaeda numbers now about 2-300, down from a peak of 3-4000.
Man, he and his ban of merry men gave us a good run for our money!
Having said all that, I’m glad the old bugger’s dead, although whether it does us more harm than languishing in a jail, giving interviews, telling us what upset him so and why, and being schooled in the Geneva Conventions seems more fruitful, somehow.
His execution may suffocate or accelerate the spread of his global vision of a world ensnared in a web of terror.
Let’s hope it’s the former.
[DPF: 20 demerits for personal attack on me. That makes 100 and a one week holiday]
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:34 am
Trump is not progressive enough for DPF’s liking.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:35 am
Oh, apropos the escape bit, I forgot to add the US has been watching him for 8 mths. Plenty of time to escape there DPF. How slack is that?
And will Obama’s ratings survive ordering a murder?
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:36 am
An article on this subject:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1383010/Osama-Bin-Laden-dead-Obama-took-16-hours-make-mind.html#ixzz1LJkz0f2d
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:37 am
Manolo, I think that’s the first time you haven’t bared your teeth at me!
Well done.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:51 am
Gas prices Jan 2009 $1.60
Gas prices Jan 2011 $3.90
Milk prices Mar 2009 11.80 $/cwt
Milk prices Mar 2011 20.40 $/cwt
Ryan, Daniels, Pawlenty, even Romney could probably beat him.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:52 am
The Donald has one card and that is he gives the impression he would make a good commander in chief. I think Obama has “trumped” that this week with the killing of OBL. So we move on to the next Republican aspirant. The economy will hang over everything and whether the Republican candidate will do bette,r given that the Republicans started it all under Bushie.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:54 am
The quality of the Republican candidate is largely irrelevant
Is US politics that bad now? The Shining Beacon is now a competition of the least weak?
The likes of Trump and Palin would surely make a big difference to GOP’s chances.
The Donald has one card and that is he gives the impression he would make a good commander in chief.
Good grief. Don trump’s Joe Hunt.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:57 am
And unemployment
Jan 2009 7.8%
Jan 2011 9%
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Romney likely to clinch GOP’s nomination. The former MA’s governor could defeat the Messiah.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 9:16 am
David I do not know where you plucked this Nate Silver from, but he is dead wrong. People vote with their back pocket, as others have stated the economy is always the kicker. It does not matter what party is in power or who is President, they have always lost the election if the economy is in the toilet.
Vote:As for Trump, he always becomes cocky when the economy is about to topple over. He will obviously disappear when the share market starts to tank. The only person that can help Obama is Bernanke. If he can hold the economy up until the end of 2012, Obama may sneak in. The chances of that are near impossible. In the end the social mood of the people determines if a Government stays in power.
May 4th, 2011 at 9:17 am
The important thing to note about Nate Silver’s regression calculations is that – even if correct – when there is nothing happening in foreign affairs (at least in terms of public perception and attention) the correlation won’t amount to much compared to the domestic scene, where events that affect people are happening every day.
In short, when the foreign scene has no big events it will still come down to Carville’s famous phrase – It’s the economy, stupid. By 1992 the big foreign affairs events (Gulf War I, end of the Cold War) had come and gone, even though the after-effects were still rumbling along, so the domestic took centre stage, even with it’s supposed weaker correlation.
Carter faced the perfect storm of course and that may still happen with Obama. It’s almost certain on the domestic front that he’s going to face a tough situation and people’s memories are short.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 9:18 am
People who think that Trump/Palin would be a joke seem to be forgetting that the incumbent is Obama/Biden.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 9:46 am
If there is any justice in the world, Obama will get crucified on the stimulus. He’s spent a gazillion dollars and things have turned out worse than he thought. So America has an unimaginable mountain of debt for future generations and nothing (indeed less) to show for it.
I don’t myself see how this helps Obama that much. He clearly just kept doing what Bush did, very little has changed. He certainly took the decision to go in, but everything else, all the hard decisions, were put in place when Bush was president.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 9:50 am
White House to release Bin Laden death photo
President Obama decided Tuesday morning to release at least one photo showing Osama Bin Laden’s death, a top source claims. The images, being described as ‘graphic’, are bound to stir emotions in the east and the west, and will likely become the most viewed photographs in modern history.
One image shows a bullet wound to his head above his left eye. Will it remove all doubt about the death?
Vote:The exact timing on the release is being debated.
May 4th, 2011 at 10:20 am
Luc, I don’t always disagree with your points, but with the proportion of your posts being such blatant trolling you shouldn’t really be so surprised when you become the target of personal attacks. Perhaps you could consider that before threatening to “lawyer up” as you did yesterday.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 10:28 am
Good thing they waterboarded KSM.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 10:39 am
White House to release Bin Laden death photo
That’s bound to convince everyone, just like releasing the birth certificate. Especially those who thought his death has been covered up for years.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 10:41 am
I normally take little notice of “poll bumps” because it’s the longer term trends that are important. But this one will be interesting because of how it turns on the numbers and proportions of two groups.
First, the usual brainless Obama cheerleaders (MSNBC, the ladies on The View) are already gushing, but what proportion of Obama supporters do they constitute? Not as much as three years ago.
Second, the left-wing that was Barry’s real support base (not just partisan Democrats) – the ones that raved about Obama, foot-slogged, fund-raised and voted for him – are exactly the people supposedly turned off by Bush-like actions used to get OBL (at least if they’re not all hypocrites). Will they really enthusiastic about this?
I guess this was put in mind by one of the classic They told me… quotes that I saw yesterday:
Most of the base will still vote for the guy, but it’s the enthusiasm that may be missing, if it’s not gone already, and that lack may not push the polls as much as some have expected.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Obama WILL get a bump because previously skeptical Independents will see him more as a Commander in Chief now. If he continues his missteps in the ME, fails to work with Congress on meaningful debt reduction that doesnt involve job killing tax increases and if gasoline prices keep tracking up through the summer with him continuing to block even normal exploitation of traditional energy sources then he will track back down.
As for Luc he has at times a penchant for nasty personal attacks especially when cornered and thoroughly rebutted. Phil U was a more honourable opponent (for me at least) – he mostly played the ball not the man. He rambled and was often so blatantly and wildly wrong as to be a figure of derision but he playful when he did it. Not so Luc.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 11:15 am
The key thing about Luc is that he despises the right in general, and on Kiwiblog in particular, to such an extent that he can’t even be arsed putting together any arguments and reasoning. We’re not worth it you see. It’s all short-form assertions, mindless soundbites direct from the mouth of Chomsky, Zinn and co – and he thinks we’ve never seen such before because it was all new to him courtesy of the younger, more radical wife he obtained.
He’s a braying old donkey from the 60′s/70′s, more suited to traditional protest marches than the internet, throwing out one soundbite after another in a desperate attempt to put his opponents on the defensive, but full of nothing except the desire to taunt. That’s the definition of a blog troll to me.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 11:56 am
Bin Ladens demise will provide stimulus to Obama’s popularity ratings, however Obama will have to build on that success if he wants a second term.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
The differential between the correlations (foreign affair carries more weight) actually makes sense.
The POTUS is responsible for foreign affairs – not entirely alone, but mostly. But the POTUS has far more modest influence over economic policy – that is shared with Congress.
Also, Govt generally has far more control over its conduct of foreign affairs than over the economy. The latter is impacted by many things (weather, commodity price booms/busts, foreign actions, global recessions etc etc) Govt cannot control.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
One item that is funny but also pointed – Iowahawk celebrates a new-found American pride:
He goes on to give credit where credit is due:
But he adds a note of warning:
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
He could run with Bush as his VP in 2012.
“We got Saddam and Osama, don’t fuck with us!”
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Of course, a lot of the credit for the capture must go to the CIA under Bush, using their
tortureinterrogation techniques. They managed to get a lot of info from people like Khalid Sheik Mohammed, that actually prevented another attack on the Freedom Tower etc…After that, Obama restricted the heck out of the CIA. They could only interrogate suspects according to the Army Field Manual – eg, they couldn’t even use techniques that Police in New York could do – couldn’t even look at them sideways in a bad way.
The can’t even use the better Voice Stress Analysis lie detectors for some reason (although those in the field have been ignoring that, by all accounts). Also, all the secret files pertaining to interrogations have been released, thus terrorists now know what to expect if they are caught.
So, while Obama may be taking all the credit, it’s not really down to him: he’s actually done all in his power to make it harder to find these terrorists (and half of them have been released from Gitmo and are right back attacking the US).
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Osama will be forgotten within a month, and anyways, any Obama brownie points are lost in the shadow of George B Jnr who set the Osama harpies lose. At best, Obama has just closed Bush’s initiative. The killing won’t impact on Obama’s potential re-election.
My wife is just back from California, a liberal state and pro-Obama in the election. Now everyone hates him, disallusioned, so if CA is any kind of weather vein, I can’t see Obama’s feel good rhetoric winning him a 2nd term over the recession. The guy’s just wind.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Is it only Fox News who calls that rogue “USAMA” so it doesn’t get confused with OBAMA. Even more confusing and a bit insulting to the late Ullyses S Grant.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
C’mon. The discussion topic is Obama, not smile-and-wave Key.
.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Nial Ferguson on US inflation:
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/05/01/sticker-shock.html
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Obama at the White House Correspondents Dinner 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n9mzJhvC-8E#at=263
Seth Myers at the White House Correspondents Dinner 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YGITlxfT6s&feature=relmfu
Note Seth Myers’ joke about Osama hosting a weekly show on CSPAN (the US equivalent of parliamentTV). watch how much Obama laughs at this joke. He would have authorised the mission in the week before this dinner which was the night before the raid…. HILARIOUS!!!
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 6:04 pm
“But the mission was flawless – no soldiers dead, no civilians dead, no neighbour destroyed etc.”
errr….. pity about the reporting of ‘the mission’?
errr…. how did the ‘Seals’ KNOW the unarmed person they apparently shot – WAS actually Osama Bin Laden?
DNA?
Did they take the DNA sample before or after they shot him? (Whoever ‘him’ actually is?)
Pity ‘Osama Bin Laden’ / (whoever) wasn’t alive to answer questions about his ‘role’ in 9/11?
How convenient!
Funny how it was the day after the Obama ‘birth certificate’ public fuss – that ‘Osama’ was shot?
How convenient!
Seen this?
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/8491113/Osama-Bin-Laden-dead-White-House-backtracks-on-how-bin-Laden-died.html
Osama Bin Laden dead: White House backtracks on how bin Laden died
The White House admitted last night that its initial account of the way Osama bin Laden died at the hands of US forces had been riddled with errors.
Gordon Rayner
By Gordon Rayner, and Toby Harnden in Washington 9:43PM BST 03 May 2011Comment
Claims that the al-Qaeda leader had died while firing an automatic weapon at commandos were withdrawn, with President Barack Obama’s spokesman admitting “he was unarmed”. A dramatic description of bin Laden using his wife as a “human shield” and forcing her to sacrifice her life also proved to be false. The woman was still alive and was taken into custody with several of the terrorist’s children.
In an embarrassing climb-down, Barack Obama’s press secretary, Jay Carney, admitted that the previous version of events — which came mostly from the chief US counter-terrorism adviser, John Brennan — had been put out “with great haste”.
The about-turn left the US open to accusations of a cover-up and led to calls for video footage of the raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and images of bin Laden’s body to be released to end conspiracy theories.
However, the White House suggested that pictures of bin Laden’s body were too “gruesome” to be made public because they could prove “inflammatory”.
…………………..”
Penny Bright
Vote:http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
May 4th, 2011 at 6:06 pm
The ultimate nutter has returned with an even bigger tin foil hat!
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
# Manolo (4,016) Says:
May 4th, 2011 at 6:06 pm
The ultimate nutter has returned with an even bigger tin foil hat!”
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
I didn’t know you wore a tin foil hat Manolo?
(Guess I must be asking the right questions – or I wouldn’t be copping the flak
Thanks Manolo!
You’ve made my evening………….
Penny Bright
Vote:http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
May 4th, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Guess I must be asking the right questions – or I wouldn’t be copping the flak
Actually Penny there are a lot of other possibilities as to why you cop flak, but strangely you seem to ignore all of those and just focus on the outlier possibility that absolves you of the possibility your arguments are trite.
Sad to see you’ve reverted to your unreadable unscannable format as well.
What a shame.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Manolo
“Romney likely to clinch GOP’s nomination. The former MA’s governor could defeat the Messiah.”
Not a hope in hell will Romney beat B Hussein Obama, Romney has all the attraction of a limp fish.
Sadly the line up on the right is (so far) populated with moon bats and no hoper’s, I suspect that anybody with real talent is going to sit this one out and wait for 2016.
While the undecideds might not be totally happy with Obama they will vote for him if the other option is Romney, Palin or Trump.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:13 pm
Why does the supposed greatest nation on earth have such a scarcity of quality politicians and so many nutter wannabees?
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 8:43 pm
Why does the supposed greatest nation on earth have such a scarcity of quality politicians and so many nutter wannabees?
Washington Lobbyists and PACs with vast resources, and an MSM that’s forgotten, plain ignored its sacred constitutional role set out by the forefathers in favour of satisfying the immediate whims and wishes of its advertisers and forget the other stuff.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 10:48 pm
Hey, hey guys.
Remember when committing military operations in countries without their government’s approval violating state sovereignty was bad?
And remember when intelligence officers who interrogated suspected terrorists by leaving them in freezing rooms for hours on end deserved to be hauled before a court of law on charges of crimes against humanity?
And remember when extrajudicial executions were among the most terrible things a sitting President could order?
Good times, good times.
Vote:May 4th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
If only NZ had people like Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Hayley Barbour, Bobby Jindall, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, or Scott Walker.
Vote: