McCarten on Goff
May 29th, 2011 at 9:53 am by David FarrarMatt McCarten writes in the HoS:
I can’t see how Labour can keep whistling in the dark over its dismal public support.
I don’t know how its leader, Phil Goff, can keep pretending he has a chance of winning in November.
Two polls this week showed the gap between National and Labour remaining at a yawning 20 per cent. When was the last time a government polled consistently so far ahead of its opposition?
Every poll these days seems to tell the same story: John Key and his party can rule alone. People like Key and trust him.
We have a prime minister whom two out of every three New Zealanders prefer.
That means even voters of other parties support him over their own leaders. Extraordinary but true.
That is a point few have cottoned on to. Even amongst Labour voters, the majority prefer Key over Goff to be PM.
No one, surely, believes that a Goff-led party has any show.
It is clear the whole Labour caucus is made up of a bunch of gutless wonders, resigned to coast along for the next six months and lose, rather than get a backbone and make the change.
Labour needs a new messenger if it has any chance.
Frankly, it’s a dereliction of duty for the current caucus to flag this election away. If it does then it doesn’t deserve any support from its core constituency.
It would have a better chance in November if it put the names of its current MPs on a wall and then have some kid throw a dart at it.
Whoever gets their name lanced by the dart gets the job.
That would be hilarious. There would be 41 MPs silently thinking “Please, please don’t land on my name” and two MPs praying “pick me, pick me”.
It’s a bit over the top but it’s a better strategy than the one Labour’s running now.
Matt shouldn’t give away his ideas for free.
May 29th, 2011 at 10:00 am
Wow, wouldn’t it be great if Matt McCarten always told the truth like he has here, rather than bending it all out of shape to suit his own agenda
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 10:27 am
If the targets were life size Parekura would be a shoo in, even a one eyed socialist couldn’t miss him with a dart.
Mind you even he would be a better choice than Goofy.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 10:35 am
You don’t think Matt McCarton, Mana Party president, has an agenda here? Pfft.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 10:44 am
Fair point, questlove. Agree.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 11:00 am
We has a Herald Digipoll this week. What other poll is McCarton referring to?
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 11:07 am
Probably Roy Morgan.
Vote:http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4669/
May 29th, 2011 at 11:14 am
Thanks shady. Unfortunately the Roy Morgan is now two weeks old. I hear there are more coming out shortly. I will be watching with interest.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Chuck – 23rd of May was 6 days ago. But yes the research data was collated earlier than the Digipoll.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
So Matt has turned feral, doesn’t it warm the heart when the left turn on their own. I suspect Matt’s greatest problem with Liarbore is they’re not promoting full scale communism.If Goofy was a trained monkey and all he could say is “more and increasing wealth redistribution” McCarten would be over the moon. In Matts case I would say ideology would trump personalities any day.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
I’m not a fan of Goff, but at least he is trying. Most of the Labour party have gone into hiberation and are just waiting for the election to finish so they can blame Goff and roll him.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Phil Goff, dead man talking.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
I recall Moore expected to get thrashed in 1993. National survived with a small majority under FPP. If Labour can get their traditional supoorters to vote in November then the election will be close.
Undecided voters are important. I’m not sure that National supporters are as likely to be undecided than supporters of other parties. If Goff can’t inspire them then they may not vote. Again Labour, as always, wants a high voter turn out. National prefer fewer people to vote.
I am not sure in 2011 we can trust polls of people with landline Telephones (nor self selected groups on the internet) and claim they represent NZ voters.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Another KFC election then Inky? Can Labour afford it this year?
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
A few years back National was in a similar place to where Labour is now, where even National voters perceived the party as being leaderless and directionless. Then along came John. I struggle to see how Labour can turns things around, but I guess it could happen.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Inky, in 1993 National got punished for reinstating the super surcharge and the mother of all budgets. John Key has pretty much kept the faith with voters, much to the chagrin of some who comment here.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Inky, few good pollsters would claim that their sample actually represents NZ 100%. It’s part science and part art. The data typically gets weighted and filtered, with the aim of making the best possible prediction.
I do agree though – online surveys are really crap for polls.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 7:12 pm
The two MPs, both called David? I think there are a few others like Grant Robertson…
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 7:13 pm
Labour are not a creditable opposition, however I don’t like the direction John Key and Mr Magoo are taking us flogging off the rest of the family silver to the Chinese or whoever.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 7:22 pm
Inky
National didn’t lead Labour by 20 points in the run up to 1993. Had they done so Labour would’ve been thrashed even worse than in 1990 where they lost 47% to 35%. FPP exaggerated the movement of the vote from election to election as evidenced by the huge shift in seats between 1972 and 1975 and again from 1990 and 1993.
If these polls continue up until election day and were we operating back under FPP, Labour would be annihilated. MMP enables the Greens to thrive and be part a centre left block otherwise they’d bleed support to Labour and be reduced to a 5% core that would never be able to win an electorate seat. It also smooths the impact of movement in support for the major parties – this to is in Labour’s favour just as it prevented National from being annihilated in 2002.
The landline phone excuse was frequently trotted out by Labour supporters in the run up to the 2005 election. Didn’t stop TV3 TNS poll from nailing it and they use traditional polling methods.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 9:41 pm
When the Labour Caucus finally get around to lopping the gormless head of the minister of funny walks off his torso, will it still mouth the silent words, “my team is united behind me”
“We left the Nats a strong economy and look what they did to it”.
“our policies will lead to gro……..
And after the funeral some will be asking was he saying growth or gross negligence.
Vote: