May 29th, 2011 at 6:56 pm by David Farrar
Both the TVNZ and TV3 poll are detailed over at Curiablog.
The rolling average of the polls is shown below.
After a lengthy break I will be updating Curiablog with poll details regularly again.
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May 29th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
It looks like the last TV3/Reid anomaly has corrected this time and has lined up with the rest at the moment, so it looks to be same old.
Greens look light but consistent between the two polls.
Vote:Act sneaking up a bit but have a long way to go to meet Brash expectations.
Mana not making much impression but that’s not surprising.
May 29th, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Every morning on Radio NZ I hear “the Green party says: ___.
Vote:Mary Wilson asked (when Winston talked of a (possible) “tsunami of migrants” “Should we even be reporting him?” If Winston had said “quite a few” migrants it wouldn’t have made the news.
I mean we accept peak oil and climate change but are averse to the idea that NZ’s population could be optimal as it was (say) 20 years ago… the issue offends our liberal (or libertarian) sensibilities.
May 29th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
bbbbbbbbbut the Horizon people say the polls, other than their own, are wrong
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 7:56 pm
Does Mana Party actually exist? I thought it had to be registered or something
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 8:16 pm
Nice to see Act slowly but surely (hopefully) moving up in the polls. Im expecting them to crack the 5% on polling day, my whole immediate family are swinging from the Nats to Act. The political climate is far too centralist for me, at times of economic despair we need a visionary leader. John Key who is the coolest PM I’ve seen, needs to grow a pair. The only plan he has is to do as little as possible and try keep his ratings up. Steven Joyce needs to take over. The sooner the better.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Does Helen Clark actually exist in NZ politics (txts don’t count)? Don Brash may at least beat her in preferred PM, but he’s got a wee way to go yet.
Vote:May 29th, 2011 at 9:46 pm
You have to wonder who writes the headlines at Stuff – according to them ‘National took a hit’ whilst ‘Labour support remains unchanged’ in the latest polls.
National’s ‘hit’ is a drop from from 54% to 52% whilst Labour remains on 38%… was this written by Mullard and Goof?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5071115/National-loses-support-after-Budget-poll
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 9:01 am
Presumably Labour voters (and those few members of the party still capable of rational thought) must have concluded that their party has no chance of winning the coming election, no chance of coming close to winning the next election and very little chance of getting into the postion of being able to win the 2014 election.
So what do they do?
Some will stay with Labour out of tribal loyality, some will just not vote out of dispear, but some must be thinking that a vote for Labour is a total waste, but they want at least want to have an effective opposition.
So I expect to see the Greens vote increase, maybe enough to counter their traditional election campaign decline.
But the interesting question must really be: will National get a majority in its own right and, if so, will John Key offer ministerial posts to the MP and ACT as a jesture of good will against the near certauinity than after either the 2014 or 2017 elections, national will need minor party support to pass legisation. My tipping is that he will offer posts to the MP, but not to ACT.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 9:34 am
Based on the poll and the weak showing of the minority parties it could make the MMP referendum interesting
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 10:26 am
If the Greens do take a majority of Labour’s party support I believe they will be unable to ever fully recover, especially if the Greens go on to be a credible opposition party.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Most of us will never know how Act is doing in the polls as long as its numbers are printed in invisible yellow ink.
Vote:Is this a dastardly scheme?
May 30th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Here here, Owen. DPF – Could you possibly change Act to light blue? The yellow is hard to read on a laptop and very hard on a smartphone.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Is it possible to darken the yellow of the ACT result so I can read it. At the moment it is a faint unreadable yellow blur.
Vote:May 30th, 2011 at 10:29 pm
An unreadable faint yellow blur is probably appropriate.
Vote: