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June 14, 2011 2:15pm by David Farrar

Te Tai Tokerau

I blog at Stuff on the Te Tai Tokerau poll. My conclusion is that it is a good poll for Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

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Comment19

NZ Politics
By the numbers
Polls
Stuff
Te Tai Tokerau

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Kelvin to retire
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Comments (19)

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gravedodger

Not good news for the thug party, that was their second choice wasn’t it
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June 14, 2011 2:48pm
Nick R

I sniggered aloud at your dig at the Labour Party…
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June 14, 2011 2:50pm
Manolo

Choosing between Mana and Labour is akin to picking either AIDS or cancer.
Personally, I’d love to witness the electoral defeat of Harawira, the thug.
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June 14, 2011 2:51pm
side show bob

Secretly Mana probably hopes it’s on the losing side. Easier to make a lot of noise but harder to turn it into any real action on the battlefeild. If Mana do lose they can continue to play the grievance game and cry that the white colonialist’s mofos have stacked the deck against them once again.
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June 14, 2011 3:24pm
Murray

See what happens when the VRWC gets behind you.
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June 14, 2011 4:02pm
Neil

Don’t like either grouping but Davis has more brains and is more presentable.
However I have a question. If Davis gets in, does someone from Labours list comes in to take Davis’s position.
But what about the Maori Party ? With Harawira leaving the Maori Party will the Maori Party get a replacement from the list.
I have thought this through and my pygmy brain has no answer.
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June 14, 2011 4:41pm
gravedodger

The Maori Party are in overhang so Davis elected will restore proportionality wont it.
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June 14, 2011 4:50pm
georgebolwing

Neil: if Kelvin Davis wins, he becomes the member for Te Tai Tokerau, with no further consequences for the Maori party: Hone was an electroate MP, not from the list.

However, because Kelvin Davis is a list MP, his election to Te Tai Tokerau will create a list vacancy. And we all know who is next of the list: Judith baby!!!! My reading of Section 137 of the Electrocal Act is that the Electoral Commission has to go back to the origional list and decided who is next (137 (2) “The Electoral Commission must determine which of the unelected candidates whose name was included in the same party list as the member whose seat has been declared vacant stood highest in the order of preference”.)

So, the Commission will have to once again ask Judith Tizard, Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher, Dave Hereora if they are still available, so we can get Lesley Soper back into Parliament.

The only way this can not happen is if 75% of MPs vote not to fill the vacancy.
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June 14, 2011 5:16pm
Anthony

While I’m no supporter of Hone, this poll result goes against other polls and general opinion by Maori of how Maori in Te Tai Tokerau will vote.
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June 14, 2011 5:48pm
Adolf Fiinkensein

georgebolwing

I stand to be corrected but I think you might be wrong.

If Kelvin Davis wins, the number of Labour MPs will remain unchanged. One (KD) will move from the list to an electorate. In that case Labour will not qualify for another list MP.

The total number of MPs in the house will reduce by one, at the expense of the Maori Party.
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June 14, 2011 6:09pm
expat

In terms of seats it’s a zero sum game for National however in terms of deep sixing Hone and protecting the MP it’s a great win for National. Another tactical win and strategic loss for Labour.
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June 14, 2011 6:20pm
Pete George

Anthony, as Davis is seen more against Harawira it’s natural that the polls will start to more closely reflect actual sentiment…but I see Harawira claim his supporters don’t have landlines so it is under-reporting his support.

Regardless, suggesting a close run race is good for the by-election, it adds interest to it and will hopefully get more out to vote.
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June 14, 2011 6:33pm
Barnsley Bill

“No landlines”
No money, shovels, hammers or work ethic too by the lack of signage for Hatfield. I traveled as far North as Rangiputa at the weekend and the drive between the Karikari peninsula and Auckland was spoiled by only seeing ONE mana party sign ( at the northern end of Kaeo). just one sign on a 300 km drive through the electorate.
Davis signs were more common than ticks on a mangy dogs arse.
The mana party is 20 professional Maori whingers with half a dozen unelectable Auckland communists, Mmmmmmatt Mmmmmcarten and……. Tim Selwyns house monkey.
Personally I hope he wins, the sit of Bradford, Bummer and Minto filmed in the visitors gallery cheering him on can only be good for the anti MMP vote come November.
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June 14, 2011 6:53pm
Longknives

Barnsley- It is surely the responsibility of White “MF’s” to put up the signage for Hone and his chums. They’re oppressed- don’t you know??
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June 14, 2011 7:13pm
Pete George

The reality of a tough campaign may be hitting home to Hone. He separated himself from the Maori Party and all the support and votes that gave him. He’s got everything to lose and Davis can go for broke and he’s in parliament still regardless – and looks a bloody good candidate anyway.
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June 14, 2011 7:16pm
Pauleastbay

Sadly I think the quote below will prove correct

” Hain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And ain’t that a big enough majority in any town?”

Mark Twain
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June 14, 2011 7:22pm
bustedblonde

Hone wont win – he’s an egg – we put money on it. roarprawn.blogspot.com
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June 14, 2011 8:38pm
georgebolwing

Adolf;

SEction 134 of the Electoral Act states:

“(1) If the Speaker is satisfied that the seat of a member elected as a consequence of inclusion of the member’s name on a list submitted under section 127 has become vacant, the Speaker must, without delay, publish a notice of the vacancy and its cause in the Gazette.
“(2) The Governor-General must, as soon as practicable after the date of a notice published in accordance with subsection (1), issue to the Electoral Commission a warrant in form 7 directing the Electoral Commission to proceed forthwith to supply the vacancy.”

You will recall one of the reasons that Phil Twyford was discouraged from standing in the Mount Albert seat was that this would, in effect, have elected Judith Tizzard off the list.
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June 15, 2011 9:30am
Shazzadude

If one refuses a list spot with the next available member taking the spot, does that person who was previously skipped over still the next on the list, or does the list now continue on from after Louisa Wall? (Next after her Lesley Soper)?
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June 15, 2011 6:51pm

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