The largest majority?
June 26th, 2011 at 9:02 am by David FarrarThe SST reports:
… party leader Phil Goff said Davis “was able to take a Maori seat with the largest majority and make it the most marginal Maori seat”.
Really?
Te Tai Tokerau’s majority was 6,308. Tamaki Makaurau was 7,540, Te Tai Hauauru was 7,817 and Waiariki was 6,812. So Goff is massively wrong – Hone did not have the largest majority – it was 4th out of 7.
June 26th, 2011 at 9:10 am
Funny! When Hekia Parata did the same thing in Mana (turn a safe Labour electorate into a marginal), Labour claimed that it was a wonderful victory. That’s what happens when you cut your cloth to suit, I guess.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 9:15 am
Goff was also wrong claiming Davis and Labour substantially reduced Harawira’s vote. People who chose not to vote reduced both Harawira’s and Davis’ vote. Labour are not inspiring people to vote for them.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Labour would still be satisfied with their effort up north. It gives them a credible chance there in November, especially if Harawira is unable to produce credible candidates and policies to back up his local strengths.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 9:25 am
especially if Harawira is unable to produce credible candidates and policies to back up his local strengths.
That shouldn’t have anything to do with it. Harawira should stand or fall based on his performance over the next five months and how his electorate thinks he will perform should he be re-elected in November.
If Mana gets other electorate candidates they should win or lose based on their own merits.
And the Mana list should determine how much party vote they get.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Here’s a serious question for Penny Bright. After the Botany by-election, she was forecasting the demise of the National Party based on the low turnout for the by-election, which was entirely expected.
Based on that, does she believe that Hone Harawira has a mandate from the electors of Te Tai Tokerau given that:
* 33% of eligible, enrolled voters turned out to vote, and
* Hone Harawira got less than 50% of the votes cast, and
* On that basis, Hone Harawira is supported by around 16% or eligible Te Tai Tokerau voters?
As I began, this is a serious question. Ought there now be fresh consideration of the abolition of the Maori seats given that this was as high-profile as a by-election gets (far moreso than Botany), yet two-thirds of registered electors were too apathetic to vote? Compared to the Te Tai Tokerau numbers, Jami-Lee Ross’ result in Botany was an absolute landslide.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:10 am
Pete
I know that’s your theory of how politics should work, but I don’t think it is how it actually does work. Harawira will seem progressively less effective to his constituents unless he is able to achieve something by representing them. It’s hard to see what his sale pitch will be unless he can demonstrate an ability to work with others – not a strength of his.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:12 am
IV 2
Vote:The Royal Commission did recommend abolition of the Maori seats, on the basis that MMP should be effective in securing representation for Maori. No one has shown signs of acting on that. The general opinion seems to be that the seats will remain until such time as Maori cease to find them worthwhile.
June 26th, 2011 at 10:22 am
Just more labour lies and fantasy, who cares
Brilliant that Hone won, the last thing anybody would want would be for labour to gain any traction whatsoever.
Hone can be dealt with later, the boots on labours throat, just keep there and push down a little harder
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:28 am
@Inventory2 – there are always two sets of rules in NZ politics – one for the realists and another for the ideologists.
We can guarantee that the usual idiots will emerge today claiming the TTT result to be some form of victory for Labour (and the compliant media will lap it up) whereas in reality, they lost the by-election to what is effectively a one man band. Labour threw everything at this campaign including the support of the full Labour machine. Yet they still lost to an overt racist.
There is no way that Labour can retain any credibility and at the same time claim this as a victory. But they’ll try. Because that’s their way and they don’t allow the facts to get in the way of the story.
In terms of the Botany scenario, it was pointed out many times on KB that the result was a foregone conclusion the minute that popular local, Jamie-Lee Ross was named as the National candidate. Again, Labour and the Unions threw the total machine at this electorate but the result was the same – they were hammered. Blog blight came out and tried to manipulate the numbers in an effort to explain the reasons why she received a humiliating result, but even the biggest and most outrageous manipulations could not change the overall result. Same scenario with TTT. Hone won. Labour lost.
Of course the Maori seats should be abolished – NZ should dump race based seats and race based policies across the board.
I’d expect a policy announcement to this effect, closer to the election.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:31 am
Well, if National want to go back to their previous policy of abolition; now would be good. Seem highly unlikely though.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:43 am
Only from ACT. Elaycee, but of course that’s always been Act policy. Used to be Nationals as well.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:52 am
I know that’s your theory of how politics should work, but I don’t think it is how it actually does work.
mikenmild – politics works how voters let it work, and it can work how voters make it work if they choose.
Harawira campaigned on “vote for me and you still have Davis” and that will have counted against Davis. Maori electorates vote strongly for candidates, and strongly for Labour (most often not the winning candidate).
I think Maori are far smarter in how they use their votes than the average general electorate.
People (and plenty do) who say “it doesn’t work like that” give me more incentive to prove them wrong – we can make it work however we choose, and not leave it to the traditional parties to dictate their own “way it’s done” for their own convenience.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:54 am
DPF does well to point out the deliberate false statements made by GOFF but why couldn’t the reporters Marika HILL and K CHAPMAN have checked out these statements. Two of them were being paid to produce this short article yet couldn’t check the facts.
I think Hone did well to hold the seat in the face of the Labour onslaught. With the funding he will now receive for the General Election I think he will hold the seat The Maori party vote will collapse to him. Labour really only held on to most of its basic hard core vote. The win for Labour will be if Mana now stand candidates in the other Maori electorates and allow Labour to come through the middle.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:56 am
mikenmild said
If only 33% or registered voters in Te Tai Tokerau could be bothered going to the polls yesterday mikenmild, in what was one of the most publicised by-elections of recent times, Maori may well have voted with their feet yesterday and ceased “to find them worthwhile”.
Plenty of Maori are in Parliament other than in Maori seats, and it may indeed be time to consider their abolition.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 10:58 am
backster
That’s the big question. Are Mana standing candidates in the other Maori electorates? If so, the Maori Party and Mana need to do a deal in their own best interests.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Labour are clutching at straws .. trying to keep a brave face .. the same as Peter Sharples is when he says the Maori Party is going to take back Te Tai Tokerau in this years general election.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 11:48 am
iv@ @ 9.54
By Penny’s logic the by-election results are conclusive proof that 67% of the electorate intended to vote National but, being foiled by the absence of a candidate, chose not to vote at all. I am surprised that none of the commenters have realised this stupendous victory for the Government. Key can take great heart from this result. It is a major victory for his policies.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
This is why Goff will never be PM.
He spins so transparently that anyone and everyone can see he is a partisan politician and will say anything to promote his side. It lacks credibility and trust. NZers are not stupid and can smell the dishonesty a mile off.
Key by and large is a straight shooter, but when he spins so transparently gets himself stuck too – just like his comments on the mine safety vs mine construction issue. You just dig the hole deeper.
Hone won because he comes across as a straight shooter at least 70% of the time. He has charisma and is willing to thumb his nose at the establishment. The cockiness is compelling for a people who have not been well represented in the past and need someone to make some noise on their behalf. Hone will do that. Whether he actually achieves much for his people by sniping from the sidelines is anyones guess. But in order to silence and neutralise him, the issues he raises will not be off the agenda for those in power – in a way that is good opposition politics, and Hone is an opposition MP, not a government MP. It is likely to stay that way.
I actually think Kelvin did well, he got his voice heard by the country, and although not as charismatic as Hone, it was clear to see he is a good communicator and has ambition for his people to do better through education in particular. This rings true whether you are a Labour, National, Act, or Maori party supporter. The guy should go far in Labour – he is 10x better than most Labour politicians.
my 2c
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
But the Royal Commission only recommended that on the basis that there would be an exemption from the 5% threshold for Maori parties.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Graeme
Fair point, but there is no political will to go down that track. I think the fate of the Maori seats will be left to Maori to determine. They have that choice now, to go off the Maori roll if they wish.
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Maori can’t merely “go off the Maori roll” and switch to the general roll. If they could have that choice “now” why have a Maori Electoral Option?
Vote:June 26th, 2011 at 7:30 pm
dave
Good point, so if Maori don’t want to have separate seats, they would move to the general roll en masse at the next option. Doubt that will happen though.
Vote: