PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the “Republican Party’s candidate for president” than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%. Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama’s re-election prospects.
No Republican candidate…and people have already made up their minds. That’s damming
It’s often said that the prospect of being hanged the next morning greatly clarifies a man’s mind, and that’s why I’m actually appreciating the approaching “disaster” of the US debt limit on August 2nd.
First of all, it turns out that the Social Security checks go out on August 3rd – so now it becomes clear why the latest date, August 2nd (there have actually been several dates that have passed by which you could argue the US has bumped up against the limit), was selected by the Obama administration as the day the sky falls.
However, the real kicker is that Obama has just blown up a cute argument that Democrats have been using for years in defending the structure of Social Security against claims that it’s basically just a Ponzi scheme. The claim is the “Trust Fund”, dating back to good old FDR, which supposedly can be drawn on to pay the money. Right-wingers have always argued that this was a piece of accounting nonsense, in that it was money owed by one branch of government to another: certainly it could be turned into a different debt, but at the end of the day current taxpayers would still be holding the debt in one form or another.
However, with his pronouncement that a failure to raise the debt limit “might” mean the SS cheques don’t go out the door, Barry has just exploded the trust fund myth. Across America people who get that money are now finally awake to the realisation that it’s borrowed money: there is no trust fund. I can’t help chuckling at the thought that Democrats across the country are holding their heads in their hands and thinking Please, Mr President, just shut up.
mikenmild – just as some voters, as disgruntled as they might be, won’t shift their allegiance until a candidate is announced. Obama is toast, and his ideological wrecking-ball will swing no more. The question is whether or not the damage can be repaired?
werck1080 – I think the markets have had time to digest the consequences of Greece defaulting. It’s Italy that’s the biggie.
I rather appreciated this little commentary from The Man From The Future, in which a bunch of dark-suited men are asking about Tweeting and Facebook:
Third Man: And other people will look at the breakfasts and make comments?
Future Man: Sorry to burst your bubble, dudes, but you asked. Yes, that’s the future.
Fourth Man: No offense Future Man, but ..
Well economists these last few days are showing themselves up as not creditable. Dr Ganesh Nana was on national radio this morning trying to explain way capital gains tax was the way to go. On farming he was saying that farmers were not farming for productivity but for capital gain. Well NZ farmers are the most productive in the whole World and use all the technology that our very fine research CRI’s do, as well as that that was done by the old DSIR. He then says that the high prices they are getting for agriculture produce is wrong, they should be trying to be more productive. Sheesh. The farming industry has been trying to get long term market share of price of agriculture products for fifty years, when they get it, it is some how wrong. A farm has to be productive otherwise it is not worth anything. Then Dr Nana says farmers are using up all our savings buying farms, but some how housing does not do this. If you want to slow the rise in price of anything where there is leverage you should be doing it with the supply of capital. Banks lent the money out to NZders because it was easy to get from overseas because of Greenspan’s QE in the early 2000’s. Now Bernanke is doing the same. Well the market is going to correct itself without CGT when money drys up when the GFC hits full steam. Which by the way no economist is predicting.
Obama is toast, and his ideological wrecking-ball will swing no more.
Hmmm. I’m not so sure about that when he’s still got MSM defenders like Esquire on his side:
Can we just enjoy Obama for a moment? Before the policy choices have to be weighed and the hard decisions have to be made, can we just take a month or two to contemplate him the way we might contemplate a painting by Vermeer or a guitar lick by the early-seventies Rolling Stones or a Peyton Manning pass or any other astounding, ecstatic human achievement? Because twenty years from now, we’re going to look back on this time as a glorious idyll in American politics, with a confident, intelligent, fascinating president riding the surge of his prodigious talents from triumph to triumph. Whatever happens this fall or next, the summer of 2011 is the summer of Obama.
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
But I can’t wait for some lefty in NZ in future to quote or refer to Stephen Marche in some future debate with reverence at their inside knowledge and gravitas.
Another case of th entire MSM being in the tank for Obama, his comments about the GOP ‘cutting off funding for seniors”. Why can’t a single newspaper or TV channel in the USA be bothered to publish what was admitted in testimony (under oath) before Congress by the assistant treasury secretary: That any decision on NOT sending out money to seniors would be a decision made by the administration ! So the decision to “cut of granny” would be made by Obama, probably personally; and he can get away with blaming it on the GOP because the media is utterly on his side.
Sure, “The MAN” can raise money, mostly (despite the propaganda) from the very rich and Wall St Probably because he’s doing such a great job with the economy (snork).
Jimbo said… Well economists these last few days are showing themselves up as not creditable. Dr Ganesh Nana was on national radio this morning trying to explain way capital gains tax was the way to go. On farming he was saying that farmers were not farming for productivity but for capital gain.
I don’t know why would anyone listens to this cartoonist Dr Ganesh Nana. His opinion is way off target most of the time.
Luc Hansen said… The problem for you, Falafulu, is that he speaks from the viewpoint of an expert.
Well, I’ve probably read more quantitative papers in economics than Dr Ganesh Nana himself. I often see him on TV or read his quote on the paper, about his forecasts. I know almost all the forecasting techniques/algorithms used by economists. The difference is, most of them used software that do those forecasting for them. Algorithm developers like myself, we know every detail the way that a specific routine could go wrong or when it is applicable to a certain data-set and when it is not, because we develop them. This means that most of those economists are basically familiar the description of the macro theory but have no clue to the underlying mechanisms of macro models. If you don’t believe me, then ask around economists to tell you what they use for forecasting and I can tell you things that they’re not aware of, ie, the pitfall of taking the modeling results blindly.
PS : I develop & sell online lincense analytic software for used by analysts/economists in the financial markets. This is the main reason that I check out major economics/finance/statistics/mathematics/physics journals on a daily basis to find out if there are some new models being published that have the potential for product implementation. It basically means that I read, read, read, the literature looking for something interesting for implementation since that would be a competitive advantage.
There’s a hole in Labour’s tax projections, from when they would be implemented until the CGT tax take is greater than the upfront tax cut (making the first $5k tax free). They don’t specify but this could take five or more years.
(Labour say the GST cut will be covered by 39% over $150k)
So after slating National for borrowing to pay for tax cuts they plan on doing the same. Except they will borrow even more.
That’s a risk. And it doesn’t take into account what would happen if, sometime during all this extra borrowing, we are hit by another recession, which could severely impact on CGT revenue. And what do Labour (and most governments) suggest you do in a recession? Borrow more.
When are the bozo pollies of all sides gonna figure that Kiwis are taxed out. We are sick to death with these little weasels sticking their hands into our hip pockets and then wasting most of what they grab from us.
What most Kiwis want is a total overhaul of the tax system that rewards honest hard work and endevour whilst giving help to the genuine in need.
And I repeat the GENUINE in need NOT the lazy useless waste of oxygen that get hand outs now.
My rule of thumb is 80/20.
The Gumints total revenue should be no more than 20% of GDP.
Citizens should ba able to retain at least 80% of their income.
GST is a double tax. Under the proposed Labour scheme you earn $100 Pay $39 tax and keep $61.
You then spend $30 of that net and pay $15 GST.
So out of $100 Gross you pay $54 in tax have goods and services worth $30 and $16 in cash.
So the bloody leaching pollies have taken over half your earnings.
Anyone who calls that fair and equitable is welcome to pay mine and their share.
Luc said… Enlighten us, tell us specifically where he went wrong.
Luc, I have posted recent research papers here (I think it was last week) on the topic of CGT. I bet you that he hasn’t read that. CGT is not good for encouraging of investment, ie, it tends to discourage it. Go back to the thread on CGT from last week that DPF posted on Labour and see the link to the research paper that I’ve posted there and perhaps you could then sent it to Dr Ganesh Nana. I can guarantee you that Dr Nana wouldn’t understand the modeling in that paper.
miknemild: (thanks to Luc too for spelling it out):
“Answer: the IPCC does not prescribe policy. Go to their site. Look up their task.
They examine and summarise the science for ALL governments.
It’s for each government to decide what to do.”
So, you can believe the IPCC if you like, it matters not to me, what I really care about is whether governments do the right thing. IMO none of them have/are. There has been no global reduction in emissions and none of the schemes being implemented are achieving any of the goals, yet it is costing taxpayers while lining the pockets of vested interests.
Even if you believe ‘the consensus’ that CO2 is bad, how can you support the expensive ineffective measures proposed?
Different subject, But,
Does anybody know if a student loan borrower, who is presently overseas, has a passport that is due to expire and is in arrears with their student loan; can they get their New Zealand passport renewed for another five years?
If so, why?
An interesting murder case being heard in Auckland
“The police file goes into details about how Callaghan is alleged to have chopped up the body, before placing it into rubbish bags and encasing it in cement. ”
Identical to a true life program shown on Sky’s Crime Channel. The killer in that case was only caught because an off duty cop happened to be jogging past as he was ditching the lumps of concrete into the canal.
I decided to search the NZ Herald’s archives for anything about Johann Hari’s plagiarism. Shock! There was absolutely nothing. Still, they wouldn’t want to jeopardise their own integrity when you consider how much column space they gave the little worm.
Meanwhile, they print congratulatory bollocks about progs like Nick “Tosser” Davies and Ed “Moron” Miliband.
Nice bit of irony on the front page of todays Dom post. The main headline says that,”You have been warned”, by some so called experts that weather events around the world are because man is causing global warming. But up the top of the page is a xray of Homer Simpsons head, showing a tiny brain inside a large head.
A perfect match.
FRIDAY GRAPH: THE IMPACT OF MINIMUM WAGES ON YOUTH
All this mirrors New Zealand’s experience in first increasing youth minimum wages and then abolishing them altogether. It has been estimated that these moves have cost around 10,000 jobs for young people.
1. My Mother taught me about ANTICIPATION… “Just wait until your father gets home.”
2. My Mother taught me about RECEIVING…. “You are going to get it when we get home!”
3. My Mother taught me to MEET A CHALLENGE… “What were you thinking? Answer me when I talk to you … Don’t talk back to me!”
4. My Mother taught me LOGIC… “If you fall out off that swing and break your neck, you’re not going to the store with me.
5.My Mother taught me MEDICAL SCIENCE… “If you don’t stop crossing your eyes, they are going to freeze that way.”
6. My Mother taught me to THINK AHEAD… “If you don’t pass your spelling test, you’ll never get a good job.
7. My Mother taught me ESP… “Put your sweater on; don’t you think I know when you’re cold?”
8. My Mother taught me HUMOR… “When that lawn mower cuts off you toes, don’t come running to me.”
9. My Mother taught me how to BECOME AN ADULT… “If you don’t eat your vegetables, you’ll never grow up.”
10. My Mother taught me about SEX…. “How do you think you got here?”
11. My Mother taught me about GENETICS… “You’re just like your father.”
12. My Mother taught me about my ROOTS… “Do you think you were born in a barn?”
13. My Mother taught me about WISDOM OF AGE… “When you get to be my age, you will understand.
14. And my all time favorite… JUSTICE… “One day you’ll have kids, and I hope they turn out just like you. … Then you’ll see what its like.”
15. My mother taught me TO APPRECIATE A JOB WELL DONE….”If you’re going to kill each other, do it outside – I just finished cleaning!”
16. My mother taught me RELIGION……”You better pray that will come out of the carpet.”
17. My mother taught me about TIME TRAVEL…..”If you don’t straighten up, I’m going to knock you into the middle of next week!”
18. My mother taught me FORESIGHT……”Make sure you wear clean underwear, in case you’re in an accident.”
19. My mother taught me IRONY…..”Keep laughing and I’ll *give* you something to cry about.”
20. My mother taught me about the science of OSMOSIS…..”Shut your mouth and eat your supper!”
21. My mother taught me about CONTORTIONISM…..”Will you *look* at the dirt on the back of your neck!”
22. My mother taught me about STAMINA…..”You’ll sit there ’til all that spinach is gone.”
23. My mother taught me about WEATHER…..”It looks as if a tornado swept through your room.
24. My mother taught me how to solve PHYSICS PROBLEMS……”If I yelled because I saw a meteor coming toward you; would you listen then?”
25. My mother taught me about HYPOCRISY…..”If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a million times – Don’t exaggerate!!!”
26. My mother taught me THE CIRCLE OF LIFE…..”I brought you into this world, and I can take you out.”
27. My mother taught me about BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION….”Stop acting like your father!”
28. My mother taught me about ENVY……”There are millions of less fortunate children in this world who don’t have wonderful parents like you do!”
@reid (7,836) Says:
July 15th, 2011 at 6:50 pm
“Speaking of Obama, how come no-one recalls him from his Columbia university days, I mean, no-one. Not a one.”
Few people know this, but he was actually born in my hometown, Maungaturoto. He left at an early age to pursue his ambition to become Prime Minister of Canada, but was shipwrecked off the Hawaiian coast, so he had to settle for The American Presidency instead. His real name is Barry O’brien. (his Dad was a Maori, but no one mentions that)
Pierre, a brave French fighter pilot, takes his girlfriend, Marie, out for a pleasant little picnic by the River Seine.
It’s a beautiful day and love is in the air. Marie leans over to Pierre and says, “Pierre, kiss me!”
Our hero grabs a bottle of Merlot and splashes it on Marie’s lips.”What are you doing, Pierre?” says the startled Marie.
“I am Pierre the fighter pilot! When I have red meat, I like to have red wine!”
She smiles and they start kissing. When things began to heat up a little, Marie says, “Pierre, kiss me lower.”
Our hero tears her blouse open, grabs a bottle of Chardonnay and starts pouring it all over her breasts.
“Pierre! What are you doing?” asks the bewildered Marie.
“I am Pierre the fighter pilot! When I have white meat, I like to have white wine!”
They resume their passionate interlude and things really steam up. Marie leans close to his ear and whispers, “Pierre, kiss me lower!”
Our hero rips off her underwear, grabs a bottle of Cognac and pours it in her lap. He then strikes a match and lights it on fire.
Marie shrieks and dives into the river.
Standing waist deep in the river, Marie throws her arms upwards and screams furiously, “PIERRE, WHAT IN THE HELL DO YOU THINK YOU’RE DOING?”
Our hero stands up, defiantly, and says, “I am Pierre the fighter pilot! When I go down, I go down in flames!”
My ‘favourite’ as a kid was:
‘Claire helps her mother do the ironing. Why can’t you be more like Claire?’
“I don’t care what Claire’s mother allows her to do, you’re not staying out that late.”
Very disappointed in ACT voting for this legislation that all tobacco products have to be hidden away.
Paul Morning Report said 3 ACT voted against. Didn’t say who.
Reid, I wonder how much agitprop the DomPost sources from its fellow traveller friends at the Graun:
Yes I lost faith in the Guardian after it made me look stupid when I was laughing at even more evidence to the mountain already that establishes irrefutably that Palin is a hillbilly who’ll probably turn the inaugural ball into a hoe-down hootenanny as her first act as Pres, so I’m never quoting it again, unless it says something really good.
But seriously there is something wrong with Obama. It’s like he’s a puppet, doing someone else’s agenda, which is why he doesn’t seem to care much about imposing his will in this once in a lifetime limited opportunity but is content to spend much of it playing golf. And this started half-way through his first term. My question is: who are these people and what are they doing/believe in?
At least with Bush 43, Clinton, Bush 41 they were known quantities. Even if you disagreed with what they did and stood for at least you knew what it was. With Obama, it’s unclear.
Don’t worry Reid, the Guardian is burning cash like a cocaine addict who’s just won the lottery. It’ll be bankrupt by 2015. Expect it to be propped up by the usual suspects though, after a heavy campaign by academics and think tanks based on the Graun’s important role of “speaking truth to power!”
Today brings news of the arrest of the managing director of a firm hired by the University of East Anglia’s CRU (Climatic Research Unit) to carry out ‘covert’ operations. Neil Wallis of Outside Organisation was arrested today in connection with the spreading News of the World scandal.
The simple fix for NC is for Rupert and James to both step aside from active management, let the chips lie where they fall and pick up the pieces.
Rupert is as much to blame as James for Rebekah was the perfect scape-goat and by putting his arm round her literally, he ruled that out as an option. It was her or the company and now it’s cost him the company.
Every little traffic ticket is going to be bought out and scrutinised very carefully indeed until Rupert tells the politicians he has lots of things he could have published but never did but, you know.
How true. Who would possibly sit through the mind numbing boredom of tennis (OK apart from the women’s events) when on the other channel we have the Murdoch dynasty being ritually disemboweled. All the tasty bits are to be savoured in abundance….corruption, billion dollar losses, bribery, sleezebag reporters, lying editors & political intrigue.
Hey this is kinda cool: Amazing maps show Twitter and Flickr activity around the world. Remember the dots are not lights, they’re Twitter & Flickr activity.
I don’t understand why on those pictures (such as the USA one) that highways are lit up. Surely there’s not a constant density of people living along the Interstates! Plus how do twitter even know an address (on the LA pic)?
I don’t want to be overly cynical, but I’ve got a feeling that these are hoaxes.
TECHNICAL SNAG: The Labour party website featured prominently a video presented by finance spokesman David Cunliffe. When the video finished, viewers were offered links to other videos of women in labour.
Labour’s launch of a website to promote its new tax policy hit an embarrassing technical snag on its first day.
The party set up a website under the heading “Own our Future” which featured prominently a video presented by finance spokesman David Cunliffe all about the party’s tax policy.
When the video finished, viewers were offered links to other videos of women in labour. The videos played while embedded in the campaign website.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Women in Labour. Great keywords for the New Labour website that was supposed to be all about CGT.
Time Labour got some better website developers.
Forgot to put the link so here is all Labours information on Women in labour.
Soo funny. And the idiots are trying to blame hackers. Well noooooo, its called Keywords you dumb arses, and you turn off suggested video’s from U tube.
>Steve >Don’t give up your day job Mary Rose. >Who is ‘Claire’?
Claire was a school friend. It was a personal experience of parental double standards (‘Be more like her’/‘I don’t care what she does, you’re not doing it’). Not a suggested No 28 on the list.
28. ‘My mother taught me about CONSISTENCY… “Do as I say, not as I do.”
29. About rhetorical questions.. “If I told you to jump off a cliff, would you do it?
(I’ll get my coat….)