Gillard’s woes

July 20th, 2011 at 4:19 pm by David Farrar

In my By the numbers blog at Stuff, I look at the woes of Julia Gillard as Labor drops to a 69 year low in the opinion there. It is predicted that an election on that poll result would see the Coalition with 115 seats to 43 for Labor.

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26 Responses to “Gillard’s woes”

  1. RightNow (7,014 comments) says:

    That’s not how you spell Juliar

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  2. Viking2 (11,672 comments) says:

    Ain’t it great.
    I am loving watching the Aussies winge and moan and so I hope she stays a while longer just so that they will remember for a long time that labour is the answer to nothing.
    She also needs to stay so that they all get pissed off with the Greens as well.
    And just so they will get so pissed at the unions running their country and their state Govt.’s as well and finally reject their extortion and control of everything.

    Another year or so should do the trick. Then they will understand Roger Douglas and Bill Birch and why they need to free up their economy.

    All good.

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  3. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    “The Australlan economy is doing a lot better than the New Zealand economy,”

    Where did you get that from? A fruit loops packet?

    GDP for Australia in the March quarter was negative 1.2%; NZ positive 0.8%

    Retail sales have dried up; David Jones report a dramatic profit downgrade due to ‘no sales not even at 70% off'; Westpac predicts the RBA will cut interest rates. Pretty much all businesses including those servicing the mining sector have closed their cheque books.

    And it’s all because of uncertainty and fear (both individual and business) generated by the Greens through their puppet Gillard.

    Australia is heading inexorably toward recession.

    Only the West Australian economy is vibrant.

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  4. krazykiwi (8,040 comments) says:

    @Adolf – what planet are you on mate? Their wages, standard of living, currency strength etc makes NZ look like a sleepy pacific backwater. Which is what we are. Why do I get the feeling that with exactly the same conditions, only a non-National govt here, you’d have Oz on a pedestal?

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  5. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    kk

    So you want to dispute the figures? No? Do you suggest GDP is NOT a useful measure of comparable performance?

    I’ve been living here for nearly six months now and I don’t see any evidence that the standard of living is any different from that in NZ. Try buying fish, meat, fruit and vegies and you’ll soon get the picture.

    Instead of focusing on wages, have a look at take home pay at various levels.

    Then have a look at some of the taxes we don’t have in NZ which exist here.

    Then look at the cost of vehicles and the cost of motoring here compared with NZ. You have to drive five times as far to get anywhere here.

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  6. Put it away (2,872 comments) says:

    She is totally goffed

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  7. Jimbob (641 comments) says:

    The shift away from supporting AGW was always going to happen as subconscious social mood always changes when the back pocket comes into play. AGW was a Human herding phenomenon anyway and is very easily shifted in the opposte direction. What usually follows now is that more information becomes avaliable discrediting AGW as scientists become more confident to express their views. Subconscious social mood can shift very quickly as Gillard is finding out and Obama is about to find out next year, where he will be decimated at the polls.

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  8. jaba (2,146 comments) says:

    I see that the OZ Labor party don’t have a u in it .. not too many U’s in ours at the moment either.

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  9. krazykiwi (8,040 comments) says:

    @adolf – it’s a bit o/t but each of us could find GDP-type figures to ‘prove’ our point. Our GDP measures are declining, as shown here.

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  10. Inventory2 (9,373 comments) says:

    @ Jaba – the only U’s in the NZLP are the unions, and even they must be reconsidering.

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  11. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    kk

    Yes, but it is the here and now which is important and I suggest to you that when the March quarter figures come in and you look back over the six months to March, you’ll see a very different picture from that of the preceding year or two.

    It is uncanny how everybody I talk to, and I’m a bit of a chatter box, is feeling shit scared about the future.

    Wouldn’t you be? If you had Keith Locke and Russel Norman with a pair of pliers squeezing John Key’s knackers?

    I seriously don’t believe there is a great difference in the standard of living between the two countries. Some things are less expensive, others are dearer but on balance there probably is a significant gap in average disposable income after federal, state and local body taxes. I haven’t checked lately but some years ago the States funded education, road, rail, hospitals and prisons.

    They could not charge an income tax and each year the feral gummint would distribute a share of federal income tax (now including GST) amidst the political theatre which was called a Premiers’ Conference. I haven’t caught up but I expect that still applies. When NZ introduced GST it axed sales taxes. In Australia that did not happen and sales taxes vary from state to state. Of course all that might have changed by now and in due course I’ll get myself up to speed.

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  12. NX (443 comments) says:

    Is it mere coincidence that the primary vote for both Labor & Labour are around 27%.

    In harder economic times, are the public rejecting the politics of Harry Potter (i.e. magic)?

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  13. gryfon (16 comments) says:

    Gotta agree with Adolf on this one. The wheels are well and truly fallen off the consumer confidence bandwagon pretty much everywhere here in Australia.

    Yes, floods, cyclones and so on have played a significant part. The big issue though is that, to use the phrase Kiwis used about Helen Clark, the Australian electorate’s phone is well and truly off the hook as far as Julia Gillard is concerned. She’s perceived as a lying, poll-driven, deceitful, double-dealer.

    Abbot may be perceived as a nut-bar (and I personally find his approach re Gillard’s proposed carbon tax to be wilfully amoral) but as far as the Australian electorate is concerned, he’s a (semi-) *honest* nut-bar.

    Having said that, these bloody Aussies have no idea how lucky they are. To an Aussie, ‘GFC’ refers to a phrase that begins with the word ‘get’.

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  14. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    kk

    To summarise, I think what you have currently in Australia an economy that actually has been killed off very quickly by the Greens and Gillard. Meanwhile, NZ has an economy which has been carefully and cautiously managed into recovery over the last two and a half years

    It’s just that most commentators haven’t yet quite woken up to the new reality but ordinary Australians have.

    If you want an example of the same phenomenon, just have a look at the United States.

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  15. gryfon (16 comments) says:

    Um, here Adolf and I part company. Housing prices are really, really concerning Australians. Here in Victoria for example, real estate agents are deliberately under-reporting auction clearance rates to disguise the plummeting rate of successful sales at auction. Home-owners are staying put in their existing homes hoping they can sit out the fall but eventually still trade up to a bigger, more inner-city home, but the news is not looking good: http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=vRn&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&biw=1680&bih=898&tbm=nws&q=house+prices+in+melbourne+australia&oq=house+prices+in+melbourne+australia&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=2430l4403l0l5009l10l8l0l0l0l2l328l1629l1.3.2.2l8.

    It’s true that Aussies are being hyper-cautious and saving more. Reduced consumer spending means Aussie retail is not so much in the doldrums as sinking fast. Concerns about rising utility prices and rising rates and other state and local government fees and charges are also negatively impacting on consumer confidence.

    The Labor Government is definitely viewed by the electorate as responsible for these problems. But despite Adolf’s broad assertions, I don’t believe Tony Abbott has succeeded yet in linking The Greens successfully to these rises, although he’s definitely going all out to do so.

    If and when he does, the wrath of the middle-Australian electorate will be terrible, and The Greens’ 13% Senate presence will be a fond memory. Gillard, needless to say, will also be toast.

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  16. krazykiwi (8,040 comments) says:

    Adolf – I don’t doubt that the Aussie economy is being killied by the elocution-bereft ginga. But we’ve had our share of leftist tax-n-spend governments too.. and over the last 30 years of ebb and flow… we’re getting relatively worse off. As least the Aussies can dig a bit harder and line up those coal ships destined for China. As for looking at the USA, are you saying Oz is heading to the same place faster than we are? Check our my link over at GD re GDP trending, and we can continue over there (after dinner!)

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  17. smttc (767 comments) says:

    Adolf is definitely on the right track here.

    Unfortunately my wife and I separated at the beginning of last year and she returned to her native Australia with our two children to live. I try to visit regularly and I have noticed a marked change in the “on the street” economy over the last 18 months.

    Even though I pay my wife in AUS$ so she has certainty of funds, she now wants me to pay for unexpected extras which she previously could afford from her monthly allowance.

    The price of a semi decent bottle of wine is around AUS$18. Here in NZ at the supermarkets I can buy good wines week in week out at New World for NZ$10.99.

    I went to Myers sale on 2 July and everything was reduced by 70%. Unheard of. Mens Jockey underwear normally AUS$32.00 selling for AUS$7.00. Bless.

    My wife cannot even think about buying house. The prices are crazy.

    Australia is becoming a very expensive place to live if you are an ordinary wage earner.

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  18. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    gryfon

    Tony Abbott doesn’t have to make any links. The average Ocker got there long ago.

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  19. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Adolf

    When do you have to start contributing 12% of wages to the compulsory savings thingy.

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  20. Manolo (14,166 comments) says:

    So much for the positive impact of the ETS Australian-style. The kiss of death which Gillard deserves!

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  21. mattyroo (1,030 comments) says:

    Fuck me, I find myself agreeing with Adolf the acolyte.

    But yes, he is dead right, the aussie economy in some sectors is heading to hell in a handbasket way faster than the NZ economy. Anybody who believes otherwise needs to put down their copy of the Herald and stop watching 3 News, and get themselves a serious realty check.

    If you’re not involved in the resources sector of the Australian economy, you’re essentially doomed.

    The only good thing about the Oz economy is that the Chinese are slowly taking over. That way, the Chinese will be able to teach the Australians a thing or two about capitalism. Once they’re done with Julia, the Australians will be able to export the Welsh Witch to China, and she will be able to give the Chinese lessons in communism.

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  22. DJP6-25 (1,389 comments) says:

    The socialists are tanking here, and in OZ. What I don’t understand about this situation is that some people still think there is no God. How much more evidence do they need?

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  23. Manolo (14,166 comments) says:

    Meanwhile, NZ has an economy which has been carefully and cautiously managed into recovery over the last two and a half years.

    Give that man an Oscar for cheerleading and arse-licking!

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  24. tvb (4,553 comments) says:

    With these numbers she is just a heartbeat away from losing Government in a by-election. Rudd is going to be in hospital for a heart operation. I assume Abbott will not give her a pair for the carbon tax legislation which will delay its introduction on the grounds she promised not to introduce it during the election. Rudd will be away for 8 weeks from 1 August.

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  25. The Gantt Guy (30 comments) says:

    I have to agree with gryfon. I fled into exile from the evil rein of the Klarkenfuhrer in 2003, and have spent the last 8 years in Melbourne. The Aussie tax system(s) is repressive in the extreme. They have Stamp Duty on purchases and CGT on sales. They have GST (in exchange for which the States promised to drop Stamp Duty. Hahaha). Consumer confidence is through the floor, and I have not heard such fury at any government anywhere I’ve been. I’m not sure the unwashed have yet made the connection between the Greens and Labor’s problems, I guess it was a stroke of genius for the Greens to put a deep-red communist up as their puppet.

    tvb, the smart money isn’t on anyone resigning. The timing of Rudd’s operation is hilarious, since Rudd is doing every damn thing he can to white-ant the Gillard team. He still thinks the party will come crawling back to him and beg him to take back the leadership. The smart money is on the party getting so sick of the red puppet of the greens that they swap her out (likely for Simon Crean), with the new leader forced to call an election and take the evisceration that is surely coming, instead of much worse thrashing they will get if they hang on until 2013.

    As for DPF saying the Aus economy is going strong, in one sense he’s right if you give it a once-over-lightly. The two industries propping up the economy are mining and banking. If mining and banking are removed from the equation, the Aus economy has actually been in a deep recession (going backwards at about 7% p.a). I wrote about this at my place back in April. And yes, that’s a deliberate link-whore.

    The fun thing about the political situation right now is that the red team are going all-out to destroy mining (with their “carbon tax” and their mining super-profit tax), and the faux-blue team (in the person of Joe Hockey, who should really just drop the pretence and switch sides) have signalled they’ll kill off the banking sector. With those two dead, or damaged, Aus really doesn’t look any better than the NZ economy.

    The concerning thing is that the 2013 election (assuming the government lasts that long, which I suspect it won’t) is only a half election. This means the Greens will continue to hold the balance of power in the senate. Abbott will need to come in, trigger a double-dissolution and immediately have a second election. He may face some ire from the electorate, but that’s the system they have here in Oz.

    Adolf is correct in his analysis of the Gillard government, and he’s been in Aus long enough to have felt the pain and the fury. He is a one-eyed, sycophantic Key acolyte, which is a shame because he’s pretty-much right on most points. I’ve asked him 9 times now why the ACT policy platform of Don Brash is so terrible (which adolf seems to think it is), when Brash was (in adolf’s eyes anyway) so brilliant as National leader (using exactly the same policy platform). I’m yet to receive an answer and I suspect it’s less to do with Key than with the National Party. I suspect they could put the Klarkenfuhrer up as leader and he’d be there cheering and waving his little blue flag.

    As for “NZ has an economy which has been carefully and cautiously managed into recovery over the last two and a half years”, he is clearly interviewing his mirror to get that. The NZ economy is “managed” by a complete moron who wouldn’t know a spending cut if one walked up and punched him in the face. That’s what happens when you give Finance to a Southland farmer whose one great achievement was to lead the party to the worsts defeat in its history.

    Oh yes, and … I’m baaaaaaack! I’ve stayed away because all the trolls here were dangerously accelerating the “angry” part of “angry old man”, but when the analysis from the Mainstream media’s newest numbers man is as light-on as DPF’s current column, I find the urge to comment overwhelming.

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  26. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    Mattyroo – hehe and pretty spot on summary.

    My NZ business partner and I have licensing rights to some pretty cutting edge green technologies for Australia and New Zealand and when we began the process of setting up infrastructure in both countries a year ago, I was struck by how the business and general sentiment in Australia was so much more bouyant than the US or NZ. That is no longer the case and the turnaround has been quite swift. Even those in the resources sector are becoming bearish because of the effect of the carbon tax and ETS. The soaring exchange rate, the ever increasing burden of state and federal regulations and costs and the rising price of food, fuel and electricity are all impacting on the bottom line of many businesses. The venom and ill will towards Gillard is quite palpable. I’m staggered that the rural independents propping her up are saying they’ll back the carbon tax. Gillard seems determined to permanently hobble the one sector of the economy that has driven Australian prosperity for decades all for ideological purity but with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, she reckons its now or never. Abbott’s promise to repeal is clear and simple and is probably 80% behind the coalition’s rise in the polls (the asylum seeker row being another factor weighing down Labor’s support).

    The sentiment in NZ has been coming off quite a low base and for so many years was so far behind Australia but most I deal with (even in Chch) are more confident with the direction of the country. They see some stability and consistency with National and most business people I deal with see Key as a competent business savvy PM. NZ seems to be turning the corner albeit slowly whilst Australia is hitting a quite rough patch knocking normally bullish Aussie sentiment pretty hard.

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