iPredict launches www.electionresults.co.nz
July 28th, 2011 at 9:04 pm by Kokila PatelTags: 2011 election, iPredictiPredict launches www.electionresults.co.nz
Four months before November’s election, political journalists, activists and junkies now have 24/7 access to New Zealand’s most accurate forecast of the 2011 election result, following today’s launch by New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, of www.electionresults.co.nz
The new site provides constantly updating forecasts of every aspect of the New Zealand 2011 election, including the party vote share, every electorate contest and a graphical projection of the shape of the 2011-14 New Zealand Parliament.
Daily commentary on the main market movers will be provided by www.electionresults.co.nz editor Ian Llewellyn, a former press gallery political reporter for The Independent business weekly and the New Zealand Press Association (NZPA), and a former press secretary in the 1990s to Finance Minister Bill English and former Health Minister Simon Upton after spending eight months on the picket line during widespread industrial unrest in Thatcher’s Britain in 1989.
www.electionresults.co.nz is powered by the iPredict market, New Zealand’s most accurate forecaster of political and economic events, and sponsored by Auckland corporate and public affairs consultancy Exceltium and online news-service www.scoop.co.nz
The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said www.electionresults.co.nz would bring to life the comprehensive and detailed information on New Zealand
politics available at www.ipredict.co.nz and would help bring new traders to the market.“In Ian Llewellyn, we have also found someone with a very broad range of political and journalistic experience, in New Zealand and the United Kingdom, to bring to life what our market is telling us about the future,” Mr Burgess said.
The Managing Director of www.scoop.co.nz, Alastair Thompson, said online predictions markets were uniquely suited to provide data to other 24/7 news organisations, such as www.scoop.co.nz
“Polls are static and out of date the moment they are completed and while they might be useful to fill the gaps in daily newspapers and 6pm news bulletins, the online environment can provide so much richer and more immediate information,” Mr Thompson said. “At Scoop, we are delighted to be partnering with Exceltium and iPredict to bring this information to life and complement our own 24/7 election coverage.”
The Managing Director of Exceltium, Matthew Hooton, said his company was committed to assisting iPredict in its growth.
“Across the world, predictions markets such as iPredict in New Zealand or inTrade in the United States are showing they are far more accurate, timely and relevant than traditional political polling and we have been pleased to work with iPredict over the last year to develop its offering,” Mr Hooton said. “We’ve funded www.electionresults.co.nz because the proven predictive power of iPredict will continue to become more important in New Zealand politics and we want to be associated with its growth and success in the years ahead.”
iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Journalists are welcome to use, with attribution, data and reports from www.electionresults.co.nz in their
own reporting of the New Zealand election.
July 28th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
what will Bombed Bradbury says about this new polling stuff I wonder .. possibly depends on the results I guess
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 9:16 pm
Is it just me or does the diagram on the front page in no way match the numbers in the table beside it?
Labour, table says 39, diagram shows 41
National: 55, 58
Act: 6, 7
NZ First: 6, 0
The total is right – it’s just splitting the seats between all the parties that aren’t NZ First in the diagram. Might be fixed by the time anyone else looks…
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
United Future with more than one MP? Are they expecting another TV debate that includes worms?
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 9:55 pm
It now has :
National 58
Labour 41
Green 9
ACT 7
Maori 3
United Future 3
Mana Party 1
NZ First fuck all
That’s better.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
How do I access the site?
Vote:August 1st, 2011 at 10:36 am
Does anyone know why they don’t seem to take VOTE.2011.HONE into account?
by my calcs, Mana should be projected at 2 MPs and there should only be an overhang of 1. (granted, small parties will be over-represented in ipredict stocks so this might not improve the ‘prediction’, but it’s the same basis as the rest of the projections)
Vote:August 4th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
UPDATE: Now it shows Mana with 2 MPs, but the overhang is out by 2 (123 instead of 121).
Nat – 59, Lab – 42, Grn – 8, ACT – 7, Maori – 3, UF – 2, Mana – 2, NZ1 – 0, total – 123.
Vote:Maori and UF on 1.8% each, Mana trading between 1.42% and 1.59%
August 4th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
And now it looks right. Awesome. Mana on 2 and 121 MPs total.
Vote: