General Debate 27 August 2011

August 27th, 2011 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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172 Responses to “General Debate 27 August 2011”

  1. Inventory2 (10,337 comments) says:

    Phil Goff had the nice puff pieces in the Herald on the last two Saturdays. He won’t be anywhere near as happy this morning with John Armstrong’s comment this morning:

    http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2011/08/armstrong-on-labour.html

    Has Labour really conceded defeat three months out?

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  2. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    If the UnitedFuture vote take went up slightly, National would only need the support of Unitedfuture to form a working government. And we all know what a reasonable bunch we are, don’t we Pete George? I would’ve said we’re the party of good hair until you came in on the UnitedFuture ticket ;)

    http://www.electionresults.co.nz/

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  3. hj (6,991 comments) says:

    The need for more and more migrants never stops. The Greens say that at 5.7million NZ reaches “carrying capacity” (while acknowledging our use of fossil fuels peak conventional oils and climate change).

    One of Bagehots reasons the Poms need more migrants is:
    ” falling house prices (or at least a flat housing market in much of Britain), which make it hard for Britons to sell up and move to the sun, the strength of the euro against the pound (which makes life expensive for retirees in the Dordogne and the Costa del Sol)…”

    Could be less of an issue for mobile people on higher incomes (as always).

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/08/britain-and-immigration?fsrc=nlw|newe|08-26-11|new_on_the_economist

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  4. hj (6,991 comments) says:

    Aucklands predicted 1million increase in population and new rules on density is great news for investors and developers as a developer using other peoples money can always outbid a family for a house with a garden. Thus the living conditions will spiral downwards for the bottom half [three-quarters?].

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10673127

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  5. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    With the courts clogged, why charge him in the first place? The alleged victim got what he deserved. Case closed.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/5516386/Scrapping-taxi-driver-gets-sympathy

    She felt Ranga was not someone who would usually behave that way and that a conviction would mean he could lose his job. She discharged him without conviction.

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  6. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    http://www.nzcpr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=232&sid=517b21b8264c5b38715abc0c504e9796&p=37059#p37059

    http://www.nzcpr.com/weekly291.htm

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  7. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Monique, I hope you saw this yesterday: New pain study

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  8. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    WOW Designer Rides Winning Streak!

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/arts/5516707/WOW-designer-rides-winning-streak

    So why the long face?

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  9. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    Pete I’m sorry. Until I read the article I thought baldness was nothing more than the source of a good gag. Now I realise for those with defoliated pates it’s a brazilian wax topside every day.

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  10. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Maybe a instead of a Romney/Bachman ticket for POTUS a Perry/Bachman or, even better, Bachman/Perry ticked would hasten the end of the American empire:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10747628

    On the other hand, does China really need that much help?

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  11. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Monique Watson (57) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 8:47 am

    Pete I’m sorry. Until I read the article I thought baldness was nothing more than the source of a good gag. Now I realise for those with defoliated pates it’s a brazilian wax topside every day.

    ah but it doesn’t quite smell the same.

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  12. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Key To Happiness – Self Discipline

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/wellbeing/5410200/Self-discipline-The-real-key-to-happiness/

    So does that mean happy people have self discipline, or does self discipline make you happy?

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  13. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    Tastes like chicken.

    Brunch that is.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/masterchef-australia/ep-30-duck-pancakes-4318825

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  14. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    National Socialism is alive and well. Key is reported as saying we Kiwi’s are socialist by gene pool.

    Well No John.
    Caring people come from all walks of life and the right are more caring then the left. The right do not need to control people’s lives to show compassion and understanding and to help others. Helping others is already in their nature.
    The left have a need to control and for some reason they think that is caring and compassion. Well its not.
    Its destroying peoples lives and freedoms to pursue their own lives. Once we inflict compulsory welfare upon them they are doomed to failure.

    This post from yesterday spells it out why NZ is such a low performing indebted country with a bad attitude in company with a number of others and their “political leaders”.

    http://truebluenz.com/2011/08/26/john-key-and-the-socialist-streak/

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  15. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Jeez, viking, that message board looks like a cross between a Ku Klux Klan gathering and a trailer park of white trash!

    That stuff can’t be doing your head any good at all!

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  16. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Monique Watson (58) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 9:24 am

    Tastes like chicken.

    Brunch that is.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/masterchef-australia/ep-30-duck-pancakes-4318825

    Nah, smells like this. http://www.seafriends.org.nz/images/f007209t.jpg

    You will note that its in keeping with the latest WOW award with its theme. :lol:

    And its caption.
    f007209: a female leatherjacket comes close to inspect the photographer. These fish are such a joy for divers, because they inspect the gleaming cameras and lights, and they play with the divers’ bubbles. (Parika scaber)

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  17. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Luc Hansen (3,112) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 9:27 am

    Jeez, viking, that message board looks like a cross between a Ku Klux Klan gathering and a trailer park of white trash!

    That stuff can’t be doing your head any good at all!

    Don’t you worry about my head Luc. you will be in the hut house long before me.

    I have a clear set of principles upon which to rely, one being the Truth.
    Something that escapes the likes of yourself which will ultimately lead to your mind being conflicted which leads to insanity which leads to people doing stupid stuff in the name of whatever cause they are consumed with. e.g. Hama. Greenpeace, Violent thugs with demented brains.

    Have you changed the nappies yet or is she who will be obeyed at home to change yours today?

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  18. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    Kiwiblog fruit loop Bryan Law is in the news, complete with tricycle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VpFaKoK9kE

    At least he is vandalising his own country this time.

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  19. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Another extreme weather record: with a hurricane bearing down on it and flooding forecast, the city of Philadelphia has already suffered more rainfall than at any time since records began.

    Bugger the scientists!

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  20. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    hahaha,

    Luc please watch that video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VpFaKoK9kE
    and picture yourself doing that. That’s where screwed up people like you go.
    Hahahahahah

    Boy oh boy was my last comment spot on.
    Hahahah
    :lol: :lol: :lol:
    Thanks Davidp. Good timing.

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  21. immigant (950 comments) says:

    Welfare artificially supports collapsed communities that would have otherwise broken up and moved to other parts of the country.

    Remind you of some of any areas of Wellington or Auckland much?

    http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/10989/

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  22. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Viking, thank you for your kind thoughts.

    No, baby is out with Mum in the fresh air and sunshine while I am still recovering from a particularly nasty flu infection.

    Your best wishes are anticipated and appreciated!

    It’s interesting that in your world paradigm the demented are those locked into the world’s largest open air prison, perhaps ever more accurately described as a modern concentration camp, while the white supremacist mob outside the fences rain all manner of weapons, legal and illegal, and destruction upon the incarcerated, men, women and children.

    At least you are consistent in your support of the rights of colonisers and in your damning to hell the colonised, the dispossessed and the oppressed.

    The nzpcr signs about ownership of the beaches are particularly poignant when the same people advocate loading our atmosphere and oceans with a carbon bomb of the likes never before experienced by this lonely planet, a carbon bomb that will most likely see these very same beaches sink below the sea this century.

    You have a nice day, now.

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  23. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    “Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity”

    During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.
    Furthermore, when each storm’s intensity and duration were taken into account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.

    http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical

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  24. Other_Andy (2,676 comments) says:

    AGW causes hurricanes.
    Well, no not really, the real world data says otherwise.
    Dr. Ryan Maue, WUWT contributor and the keeper of the Florida State University dataset on Accumlated Cyclone Energy, has this to say:
    2010 is in the books: Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains lowest in at least three decades, and expected to decrease even further… For the calendar year 2010, a total of 46 tropical cyclones of tropical storm force developed in the Northern Hemisphere, the fewest since 1977.
    For the calendar-year 2010, there were 66-tropical cyclones globally, the fewest in the reliable record (since 1970)!

    Bugger the scientists!
    Get your tinfoil hats out!

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  25. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    Tragic to see Luc recently dismissing snow in Auckland as just “weather” whilst now suggesting that a hurricane – against a declining trend – is evidence for scary global warming.

    Tangling yourself up in knots there mate.

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  26. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    “A recently released BP report here shows that global coal consumption has risen over the last 10 years by almost 50%. So wouldn’t you think that all those millions of tons of emitted CO2 (food for plants) as a result would drive the global temperatures up? Have temperatures risen along with all that extra coal burning?

    No they haven’t. In fact they’ve dropped slightly over the same period.”

    http://notrickszone.com/2011/08/25/coal-consumption-jumps-almost-50-yet-global-temps-drop/

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  27. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Other_Andy (369) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 10:01 am

    AGW causes hurricanes.

    Yet another denialist myth or, if you like, more accurately, lie.

    The Monckton Method at work again: start with a lie and build upon it with yet more lies. Suffocate the discussion with lies, lies and yet more lies. When all there are to rebut is lies, don’t worry, the lies, like mud, will stick in spite of forthcoming rebuttals.

    For example, one of the denialists favourite hate-targets, Gavin Schmidt write in 2009: “While anthropengic (human-induced) climate change itself is now an established fact, it’s influence on tropical cyclones is still subject to much uncertainty and debate.”

    And “…since extremes are by definition rare events, detecting long-term changes in their likelihood will take time.”

    He writes that Atlantic hurricane activity is subject to swings of up to two decades, from relatively active to relatively quiet, perhaps as part of a natural cycle independent of warming temperatures.

    Furthermore, there are negative forcings such as, for example, aerosols, which have been in the news lately as the probable reason for a lull in the inexorable rise of atmospheric and sea surface temperatures (and sea level rise).

    But, while an all things being equal scenario envisages increases in activity and intensity of hurricanes and cyclones, all things are never all that equal in a rapidly changing world.

    There is an informative discussion here and this quote from the author of the paper under discussion may be useful to those who seek facts to propaganda:

    Turning to very important question of the frequency of the strongest storms, it is entirely possible that a large increase in category 4-5 storms will result from increasing greenhouse gases, despite an overall reduction in hurricane numbers.

    To paraphrase a famous quote, it seems it’s too early to tell.

    But try telling that to a denier!

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  28. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    Hey Luc – not having too much luck drawing them out over Palestine, global warming today? What’s this stuff about hanging 8-year-olds that I keep seeing folks trying to pin on you?

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  29. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    Oh dear Luc,

    Having been called on your earlier lying alarmism – “Another extreme weather record: with a hurricane bearing down on it and flooding forecast, the city of Philadelphia has already suffered more rainfall than at any time since records began. Bugger the scientists!” – you perform a shameless volte-face and try to make out that associating hurricanes with global warming is actually just a wicked fabrication of “deniers.”

    That’s what happen when you lie and spin, Luc. You have to keep track of all the lies otherwise you end up contradicting yourself in the most obvious manner.

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  30. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    More cherry-picking nonsense from wat and his mates.

    The truth.

    An extract:

    There’s also a tendency for some people just to concentrate on air temperatures when there are other, more useful, indicators that can perhaps give us a better idea how rapidly the world is warming. Oceans for instance — due to their immense size and heat storing capability (called ‘thermal mass’) — tend to give a much more ‘steady’ indication of the warming that is happening. Here records show that the Earth has been warming at a steady rate before and since 1998 and there’s no signs of it slowing any time soon.

    Another other misleading aspect of the post is that is totally ignores the inertia inherent in the climate. Temperatures don’t go up today because we had a barbecue yesterday.

    Try again, wat.

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  31. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    wat

    Scientist have long forecast an increase in extreme weather events.

    Extreme weather events are occurring at an increasing rate, which is confirmed by all the major reinsurance companies.

    What’s your problem with facts?

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  32. publicwatchdog (2,593 comments) says:

    Hi David! Have you had an opportunity to read Ian Wishart’s latest book – ‘Breaking Silence’ yet? Interested to know what your view is – and whether you have changed any of the views you expressed on 29 June 2011? http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/06/macsyna_king_and_that_book.html I’m sure that there will be a number of Kiwibloggers who are looking forward to all those bookstores which capitulated to unlawful threats of violence against staff and property, reversing their decisions, and stocking copies of this book ‘Breaking Silence’ – which a number of customers may wish to read. Are folks aware that on 3 September 2011 from 12 noon till 3pm, NARK ( Nations Advocates for the Rights of Kids) are organising a nation-wide child abuse awareness event at towns and cities all over New Zealand.http://www.facebook.com/pages/STOP-Death-by-Abuse-of-our-Children/166417770086797 Cheers! Penny Bright.

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  33. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    a link for wat

    http://knowledge.allianz.com/?1575/climate-change-natural-disasters-impacts-extreme-weather

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  34. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    Luc,

    Scientist have long forecast an increase in extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are occurring at an increasing rate, which is confirmed by all the major reinsurance companies. What’s your problem with facts?

    You mean apart from the fact that there is no such trend, as my previous link demonstrates? What is it about “According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records” that you don’t understand? (and remember, the trend is also down; we’re not just talking about a single year.)

    So in this one thread you’ve tried to make out that your global warming causes hurricanes, then when it was shown to you that the trend is actually the reverse you tried to say that your original position was in fact just a “deniers'” lie. And now you’re again saying that global warming causes hurricanes.

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  35. calendar girl (1,232 comments) says:

    davidp@9.34” “Kiwiblog fruit loop Bryan Law is in the news, complete with tricycle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VpFaKoK9kE

    Was this the guy to whom DPF extended KB guest post privileges a year or two back? It seems that he’s just another common criminal (Law that is, not DPF!).

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  36. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age.

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  37. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Solar variation, together with volcanic activity probably contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. However, changes in solar brightness are too weak to explain recent climate change.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar-cycle-data.png

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

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  38. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Oh Luc will de pleased. he will be able to have his brain cryogenically saved for after the freeze years when he can spring back to life as GLOBAL WARMING BEGINS AGAIN.

    HMMP in about 2 centuries.

    there ya go luc.
    You could make a business of that and freeze other fruit loop brains for the centuries in the future. What a way to save mankind.

    Might even make a quid.

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  39. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (560) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 11:51 am
    Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age.

    No they are not. We are in a warming trend still at least 4 deg C below the interglacial peak.

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  40. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Oh Luc, did you say you have had the flu. Well get vaccinated and live long.

    As to best whishes, well I am not one to wish harm even upon those with lower intelligence.

    Condolences are saved for death. Are you suggesting you have died.??

    That someone else has written all these posts today.
    Now I do have evidence that you do need locking up and treatment as per this mornings discussion.
    Please let me know if Peter let you into Heaven with us good guys or sent yoiu off to that other warm place to shovel caol onto the Devils Fires so he could burn the Heretics among you.

    Have a nice afternoon sorting this out. I chopping down tree’s. Need some for my global warming. 8) :lol:

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  41. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    If the temperature rises on average another 2 deg C, there would be possible benefits, but there could be catastrophic consequences.

    If the temperature rises on average another 6 deg C, there will be catastrophic consequences.

    What moral right do we have to take this risk?

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  42. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Flight passengers get a fright

    Saturday, 27, Aug, 2011 9:10AM

    Sleepy passengers on a flight from Moscow’s biggest airport to London may have thought they were dreaming, when a drunken Russian woman staged erotic dances on the plane.

    Crew on the red eye flight from Domodedovo airport decided to return to Moscow as the woman was deemed to be causing an inconvenience to passengers.

    The woman was arrested when the plane landed and taken to a local hospital to be examined.

    Well better than pissing on the carpet i’d say.

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  43. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (560) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
    Solar variation, together with volcanic activity probably contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. However, changes in solar brightness are too weak to explain recent climate change.

    They don’t need to explain recent climate. They just need to be a factor. And another unknown not correctly interpreted in the models.

    The warmist belief is that recent warming cannot be explained in any way other than CO2. Results of studies released this year have shown that CO2 concentration is primarily determined by factors other than human input (temperature dictates atmospheric CO2 concentration mainly):

    http://www.thesydneyinstitute.com.au/wp-content/uploads/podcasts/2011/THE_SYDNEY_INSTITUTE_MURRY_SALBY_2_AUGUST_2011.mp3

    That Cosmic Rays are a factor in cloud formation:

    http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

    And that Earths heat radiation into space is not consistent with IPCC predictions:

    http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/236-Lindzen-Choi-2011.pdf

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  44. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Sonny – The Milankovitch cycle contradicts your assertion. To which cycle are you referring?

    The combined effect of the two precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth’s rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit (obliquity) oscillates between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees on a 41,000-year cycle. It is currently 23.44 degrees and decreasing.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png

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  45. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (561) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
    If the temperature rises on average another 2 deg C, there would be possible benefits, but there could be catastrophic consequences.

    If the temperature rises on average another 6 deg C, there will be catastrophic consequences.

    What moral right do we have to take this risk?

    You are talking out of a hole in your head.

    Where is your peer reviewed observational data to support your claim?

    For most of its history, life has existed on an Earth over 6 degrees warmer than today, all our common evolutionary traits were formed in temperatures above that.

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  46. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Sonny – from your link:http: //www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

    “Yet an experiment at CERN, Europe’s high-energy physics laboratory near Geneva, Switzerland, is finding tentative evidence for just that.”

    There’s a big difference between ‘tentative’ and ‘conclusive’

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  47. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    SB – “For most of its history, life has existed on an Earth over 6 degrees warmer than today, all our common evolutionary traits were formed in temperatures above that.”

    The point is, the change has always been gradual, allowing life to adapt. Sudden change logically leads to an extinction event.

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  48. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    You can outrun a glacier, but not a tidal wave.

    The Sixth Extinction:

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/25/090525fa_fact_kolbert

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  49. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (562) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
    Sonny – The Milankovitch cycle contradicts your assertion. To which cycle are you referring?

    I am referring to the previously experienced temperatures of interglacials which we are comfortably below. From discussions of the Eemian (the immediately preceding interglacial to this one):

    Are you want to indicate that although climate in Eemian was so warm to melt enough ice from Antarctica and Greenland to rise see level 4-6m above the present level, global mean temperature at the same time, by and large, wasn’t warmer then at the present significantly? What is the basis for your assertion that temperature during Eemian wasn’t higher than during Holocene? Study based on ice cores published in Nature 1996 shows peak Eemian temperatures were more than 2 degg. C higher than peak Holocene temperatures. http://gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/article1-fig3.html. (Let me guess – it would be little inconvenient and “confusing” for reader to discover that 130 000 ago it was 2 deg C or more warmer than today, with CO2 concentrations 20% lower than today).–Ivan Grozni IIa (talk) 12:14, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
    That figure shows Antarctic temperatures. Global change would be substantially lower. Not quite that either: it shows the temperatures reconstructed from one ice core. Thats an old figure, using 1987 data. I’m not at all sure that anyone has a good global figure for the Eemian, which is why the article says The Eemian climate is believed to have been about as stable as, but probably warmer than that of, the Holocene. That sea level was higher is known, though William M. Connolley (talk) 14:12, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
    As a palaeontologist I have always considered Eemian temperatures at least 2 degrees higher than ‘today’. This should have been at least the case in NW Europe. Before oxygen isotope studies it was already very clear from faunal and floral data that seawater temperatures should have been considerably higher than today because of the presence of Mediterranean and Lusitanian marine species (molluscs, foraminifera, diatoms) in the North Sea Basin. Even several mediterranean/lusitanian molluscan taxa have been able to settle in the Baltic Sea – White Sea passage! Today, as far as molluscs are concerned, a considerable lower share of the marine assemblages can be considered as genuine southern taxa. Only since about 10-15 years a very few of the socalled Eemian (so: ‘warm’) taxa is colonizing a few parts of the southern North Sea.
    An indirect indication is that according to shell characters of marine molluscan species, especially Cerastoderma edule, the salinity of the seawater in the Eemian type area (which was a North Sea embayment) was considerably higher than today. This can only have happened with much higher temperatures of the seawater. I elaborated this in our paper about the Eemian typesite at Amersfoort.
    Also from terrestrial floral data (pollenanalysis) the Eemian is warmer than the Holocene climatic optimum (which is by the way a few thousand years ago) and is stìll warmer than today. As Ivan Grozni points out the oxygen isotope peak 5e is one of the highest peaks of the Pleistocene, although the really warm period should have covered only a small part of the interglacial.
    Because CO2 was lower than today these facts are uncomfortable for greenhouse believers. Climate is much more complicated than commonly considered.
    About sealevel. Correction for downwarping as present in the Netherlands and taking into account the shallowest occurrences of the top of marine Eemian deposits gives us a sealevel that is at least 6-8 metres higher than today. –Tom Meijer (talk) 14:32, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
    Maybe this information should be added to the page: http://www.geus.dk/publications/bull/nr10/nr10_p61-64.pdf. Generally, according to the sediments, north pole have been ice free during Eemian. 82.128.226.51 (talk) 19:40, 30 July 2008 (UTC)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Eemian

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  50. tom hunter (4,809 comments) says:

    There’s a big difference between ‘tentative’ and ‘conclusive’

    Indeed. Tentative conclusions supporting AGW are screamed from the rooftops, while tentative conclusions detracting from AGW result in mumbling and eyes downcast to shuffling feet.

    The point is, the change has always been gradual, allowing life to adapt. Sudden change logically leads to an extinction event.

    And in the past such adaptation was to the new environment, either aided or hindered by genetic changes alone. Homo sapiens sapiens by contrast has adapted the environment to it, and appears to be continuing to do so. For a guy who firmly believes in the coming Singularity you’re exhibiting a strange, contradictory lack of confidence in the speed of humanity’s mode of “adaptation”.

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  51. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (566) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
    SB – “For most of its history, life has existed on an Earth over 6 degrees warmer than today, all our common evolutionary traits were formed in temperatures above that.”

    The point is, the change has always been gradual, allowing life to adapt. Sudden change logically leads to an extinction event.

    Ha ha.

    Did you even attend school?

    Have a look at the sudden temperature shifts in the interglacial cycle:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg

    Listen to David Skelly on rapid evolution:

    We cannot change the climate as fast as evolution acts.

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  52. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (566) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
    Sonny – from your link:http: //www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

    “Yet an experiment at CERN, Europe’s high-energy physics laboratory near Geneva, Switzerland, is finding tentative evidence for just that.”

    There’s a big difference between ‘tentative’ and ‘conclusive’

    Yes, due to the explosive nature of the research, the scientists involved with it have been muzzled by the directors of CERN from making strong statements about the implications of the results.

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  53. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Luc Hansen (3,118) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 11:30 am
    wat

    Scientist have long forecast an increase in extreme weather events.

    Extreme weather events are occurring at an increasing rate, which is confirmed by all the major reinsurance companies.

    What’s your problem with facts?

    Chris Landsea’s resignation letter from IPCC due to conduct and false claims made regarding hurricane activity:

    http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

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  54. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    SB – “We cannot change the climate as fast as evolution acts.”

    Obviously. Evolution continues as long as there is an organism left to evolve. The difference is the rate of attrition. If there were only rats and dandelions left, no doubt in 20 million years they would have diversified to fill all the ecological niches. Would be a bit of a shame though.

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  55. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (567) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
    SB – “We cannot change the climate as fast as evolution acts.”

    Obviously. Evolution continues as long as there is an organism left to evolve. The difference is the rate of attrition. If there were only rats and dandelions left, no doubt in 20 million years they would have diversified to fill all the ecological niches. Would be a bit of a shame though.

    99.99% of species go extinct. If you find that a bit of a shame then there is no recourse for you in this existence. Every Polar Bear and Humpback Whale exists because many, many other species were wiped out.

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  56. tom hunter (4,809 comments) says:

    On a somewhat related subject – leftists desperate to control your life – the following article is a great counterpoint to those who sneer at “sensationalist” equating of itsy bitsy regulations with in-your-face authoritarianism:

    Federal agents swooped in on Gibson Guitar Wednesday, raiding factories and offices in Memphis and Nashville, seizing several pallets of wood, electronic files and guitars

    It isn’t the first time that agents of the Fish and Wildlife Service have come knocking at the storied maker of such iconic instruments as the Les Paul electric guitar, the J-160E acoustic-electric John Lennon played, and essential jazz-boxes such as Charlie Christian’s ES-150.

    In 2009 the Feds seized several guitars and pallets of wood from a Gibson factory, and both sides have been wrangling over the goods in a case with the delightful name “United States of America v. Ebony Wood in Various Forms.”

    This is not an isolated example of the terrible things that such evil capitalists have done:

    It’s not enough to know that the body of your old guitar is made of spruce and maple: What’s the bridge made of? If it’s ebony, do you have the paperwork to show when and where that wood was harvested and when and where it was made into a bridge? Is the nut holding the strings at the guitar’s headstock bone, or could it be ivory? “Even if you have no knowledge—despite Herculean efforts to obtain it—that some piece of your guitar, no matter how small, was obtained illegally, you lose your guitar forever,” Prof. Thomas has written. “Oh, and you’ll be fined $250 for that false (or missing) information in your Lacey Act Import Declaration.”

    Consider the recent experience of Pascal Vieillard, whose Atlanta-area company, A-440 Pianos, imported several antique Bösendorfers. Mr. Vieillard asked officials at the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species how to fill out the correct paperwork—which simply encouraged them to alert U.S. Customs to give his shipment added scrutiny.

    There was never any question that the instruments were old enough to have grandfathered ivory keys. But Mr. Vieillard didn’t have his paperwork straight when two-dozen federal agents came calling.

    Facing criminal charges that might have put him in prison for years, Mr. Vieillard pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor count of violating the Lacey Act, and was handed a $17,500 fine and three years probation.

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  57. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Tom – regarding technical singularities, that is nothing more than a whimsical aspiration based on fiction. Probably satisfies a sub-conscious yearning for an omnipotent authority figure in my lizard brain.

    Yes man will no doubt adapt, but owing to the nature of our power structures, consensus will be slow and the cost in fiscal and material terms would probably be higher than if we choose to mitigate that risk by acting now. I’d hate for things to get to the point where we’d be nuking volcanoes to cool us down, or worse still nuking India and China to cool us down.

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  58. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    There’s a big difference between ‘tentative’ and ‘conclusive’

    Absolutely. The CLOUD experiment has demonstrated a plausible mechanism for solar modulation of the climate. It is the beginning, not the end.

    Whereas the AGW theory has no scientific evidence whatsover; just computer models designed to implement the AGW theory.

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  59. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    SB – “99.99% of species go extinct. If you find that a bit of a shame then there is no recourse for you in this existence. Every Polar Bear and Humpback Whale exists because many, many other species were wiped out.”

    Eventually it will be 100%. The difference is that homo sapiens sapiens is the first known species to possess the ability to circumvent the consequences of its over-proliferation.

    We get to choose the manner of our self-determination.

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  60. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Campaign countdown: Party of the week

    Now the campaign is under way (sort of) focus will start to shift from hastily considered current preference to actual voting options.

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  61. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    “For a guy who firmly believes in the coming Singularity you’re exhibiting a strange, contradictory lack of confidence in the speed of humanity’s mode of “adaptation”.”

    Is not the point of the Singularity theory that humanity will likely be wiped out by the AI’s?

    Recently finished reading Vernor Vinges brilliant book ‘A Fire upon the Deep’. Interesting how the far future singularity cosmology (Powers and Principlaties) looks very similar to a certain book which is supposed to be terribly outdated. ;)

    Vinge’s books are well worth reading for anyone interested in the whole concept.

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  62. tom hunter (4,809 comments) says:

    Still, there’s some hope. Here’s George Will in the WaPo explaining just how bad the fallout from the Wisconsin union fights have been – for the unions and the left in general.

    You may remember that certain left-wingers on KB, such as the ever-present Luc, were making a big noise about this a couple of months ago, as was Jack Hitt, Nine-to-Noon’s US correspondent. The talk was of “huge” protests representing public outrage on behalf of the unions, the infringement of civil rights (even international human rights to organise unions), the resulting terrible impact on the little children of Wisconsin’s schools, and the fightback that would topple the GOP in the state in various recall elections and the removal of one justice from the State Supreme Court. Not to mention what these victories would mean for the GOP nationally, and for the ideas of the Tea Party.

    And now? Silence:

    Fueled by many millions of dollars from national unions and sympathizers, progressives proved, redundantly, the limited utility of money when backing a bankrupt agenda: Only two Republicans were recalled — one was in a heavily Democratic district, the other is a married man playing house with a young girlfriend. Progressives also failed to defeat a Supreme Court justice.

    Will goes on to point out what was obvious to everybody except the media cheerleaders. That the fight was really all about the gravy train the public unions had been on while they Stuck-It-To-The-Man (these top-hatted, whiskey-sloshing characters apparently having morphed into taxpaying shlubs in 9-5 jobs):

    During the recall tumult, unions barely mentioned either their supposed grievance about collective bargaining, or their real fears, which concern money, particularly political money. Teachers unions can no longer bargain to require school districts to purchase teachers’ health insurance from the union’s preferred provider, which is especially expensive. This is saving millions of dollars and reducing teacher layoffs. Also, unions must hold annual recertification votes.

    And teachers unions may no longer automatically deduct dues from members’ paychecks.

    Will goes on to point out that the latter has resulted in huge drops in dues-paying membership of such unions in other states that were doing the same as Wisconsin: Colorado members down 70 percent, Indiana down 90 percent. It should also have been noted by the likes of Hitt and others that Wisconsin was not doing anything special, or even that aligned with the GOP; Democratic governors and state governments were (and are) doing the same in a desperate effort to control their budgets. It’s just that unions and the national US left decided to make an example of what had been a Blue state – and the media fell right in line, both in playing this up as an issue, and then dropping it when it became a loser, rather like Obambi himself.

    And of course Will points out who this really hurts:

    Democrats furiously oppose Walker because public employees unions are transmission belts, conveying money to the Democratic Party. Last year, $11.2 million in union dues was withheld from paychecks of Wisconsin’s executive branch employees and $2.6 million from paychecks at the university across the lake. Having spent improvidently on the recall elections, the Wisconsin Education Association Council, the teachers union, is firing 40 percent of its staff.

    Awwwwww.

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  63. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Viking2, Redbaiter has a followup article on John Key being admitted to be a follower of socialism.

    Key met with visiting charge d’affaire Glyn Davies and told him National could not adopt conservative policies because a “socialist streak” runs through all New Zealanders, the cable said.

    http://truebluenz.com/

    How pathetic. What do National Labour worshipers here think of their beloved leader John Socialist Keys? C’mon folks be honest, you can’t argue against Labour and at the same time, your Party is not that difference to Labour.

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  64. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    wat dabney – “Whereas the AGW theory has no scientific evidence whatsover; just computer models designed to implement the AGW theory.”

    Sure, but there is an alarming trend in global temperature readings which correlates to those predictive models. Should we ignore that because a causal link has not yet been established? The recent rise in temperature cannot be pinned to any other warming phenomenon.

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  65. tom hunter (4,809 comments) says:

    Did I say hope? Damn Mark Steyn to hell:

    The other thing I found frightening, really from my friends on the Right because I don’t expect them to be as flippant as the guys on the left, is when one very imminent Fox News contributor just said to me, “Oh, of course we deserve our AAA status. We can still afford the interest on our debt. There is no question of that.”

    That’s interesting to me because that’s like you getting your MasterCard statement at the end of the month, and you can’t afford to pay off any of the money you’ve spent that the bank lent you, but you can afford to stay current on the monthly interest. Now you wouldn’t think that was a healthy situation if you were just piling up more and more debt each month on your MasterCard. But it doesn’t matter because you can stay current on the monthly interest charge?

    When this particular gentleman looked me in the eyes and said that, I realized nobody, nobody seriously thinks that anyone is going to be paying back this $15 trillion in debt. In other words, the idea of paying down the debt so that one day it’s $9 trillion, and one day it’s $3 trillion, and one day it’s $47 billion, and one day it’s $19.87 — nobody is seriously thinking of that.

    When he said to me we can still afford to stay current on the monthly MasterCard interest charge, he really gave the game away on this racket.

    Read the whole interview transcript

    Meantime, lunch is done and it’s time to get back out into that beautiful sunshine. I think Spring is here.

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  66. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    “John Key being admitted to be a follower of socialism”

    He didn’t admit anything of the sort. He said most kiwi’s, including himself, had a “socialist” streak, which is probably true, but that hardly translates into “follower”. It is ALSO true that most of middle NZ most likely sits on the centre right. The two are not mutually incompatible.

    The problem with all this is the definition of socialism. I strongly suspect that what Key meant was that most kiwi’s favour some level of government support and intervention, which hardly makes them, or Key a “follower of socialism”.

    But if it did, then ACT would also be a socialist party.

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  67. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    Given that the formation of hurricanes depends on a relatively high temperature lapse rate, and given that greenhouse warming would theoretically reduce this lapse rate it’s hard to be confident that increased CO2 warming would induce more hurricanes even if the available energy from the oceans was increased. Although perhaps they might form less often but be more powerful when they do form.

    But it would seem to me that such weather events are influenced more by other climate variations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, than by possible CO2 induced warming.

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  68. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    “Redbaiter has a followup article on John Key being admitted to be a follower of socialism.”

    Hmm, seems Redbaiter has been parading as jonnobanks in drag. What a pleasant chap she is.

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  69. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    Scott Chris – Sure, but there is an alarming trend in global temperature readings which correlates to those predictive models. Should we ignore that because a causal link has not yet been established?

    ———————————–

    But there is a causal explanation: increased CO2 in the atmosphere which science tells us quite confidently will cause warming of 1 degree C for a doubling of CO2 feedbacks aside. The issue is linking this process to observation and determining whether the atmosphere provides significant positive feedbacks to amplify the direct warming caused by CO2.

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  70. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (570) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
    wat dabney – “Whereas the AGW theory has no scientific evidence whatsover; just computer models designed to implement the AGW theory.”

    Sure, but there is an alarming trend in global temperature readings which correlates to those predictive models. Should we ignore that because a causal link has not yet been established? The recent rise in temperature cannot be pinned to any other warming phenomenon.

    What alarming trend?

    15 years of warming from 1985-2000?

    0.6 degrees warmer than a century and a half ago, what in heck is alarming about that?

    ‘Because you couldn’t think of anything else’ is your most powerful argument. Pathetic, have a look at the history of doomsday problems, they are ever present and costly to misguidedly react to.

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  71. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “For most of its history, life has existed on an Earth over 6 degrees warmer than today, all our common evolutionary traits were formed in temperatures above that.”

    Not that I believe climate sensitivity is 6 degrees C but this is a ridiculous argument in rebuttal. Life may exist over a wide variety of different environments but that doesn’t mean that modern human society will be able to sustain itself in its present state of prosperity and technological advancement if dramatic change occurs. There is a difference between “life” and “our current way of life”, and I would not want to endure significant climate change even if it didn’t mean the extinction of our species.

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  72. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Weihana – “Given that the formation of hurricanes depends on a relatively high temperature lapse rate, and given that greenhouse warming would theoretically reduce this lapse rate it’s hard to be confident that increased CO2 warming would induce more hurricanes even if the available energy from the oceans was increased.”

    Quite. On the other hand, common sense would suggest that the more energy contained within a system, the more likely the particles in that system are to behave unpredictably because the total probability field is augmented and possible outcomes increased.

    Still, wheels within wheels, some cancelling eachother out etc. Who’d want to be a chaos mathematician.

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  73. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    Sure, but there is an alarming trend in global temperature readings which correlates to those predictive models. Should we ignore that because a causal link has not yet been established? The recent rise in temperature cannot be pinned to any other warming phenomenon.

    The models didn’t “predict” anything that happened before they were written; they were curve-fitted to match recent temperature history. And when you talk about the models, which ones are you referring to, and why do they produce different predictions? If you have enough models producing different predictions you’ll always end up with one that seems to roughly correlate with subsequent variations, but that certainly doesn’t mean it is modelling anything accurately and has predictive skill.

    As for your claim that there is an “alarming trend” in global temperature, to what trend are you referring? There has been no increase for a decade (did the models predict that?), and the net warming that occurred in the last century happened before the war, i.e. before rapid industrialisation.

    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/07/25/2011-temperature-watch/

    Remember, the climate is always going to be going up or down, with counter-movements against secular trends and so forth. There is nothing remotely “alarming” about the recent climate. It was only the Hockeystick which generated that belief, but the Hockeystick is completely false.

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  74. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    SB “what warming post 2000?”

    This warming. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GISS_temperature_2000-09_lrg.png

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  75. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Scott Chris said…
    Hmm, seems Redbaiter has been parading as jonnobanks in drag.

    Would you care to elaborate a bit more? In what ways?

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  76. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    “In fact, the models have performed poorly in comparison to observations, with global temperatures failing to even remain above the lower bound predicted by the IPCC, despite the steady rise in CO2 levels”

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/06/top-10-reasons-why-climate-model.html

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  77. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    ” There is a difference between “life” and “our current way of life””

    Why should we be concerned about preserving our current way of life? IF global warming is happenning and increasing, and thats a big if, my question would be, so what? It could very well force us to return to a more traditional way of life, which would not be such a bad thing. I’m not talking about the soulles and treasonous crap spouted by the Greens. But a society based on agrarian and spiritual values, with the traditional family at its center and a state whos sole purpose was the preservation and defense of that society.

    Crown. Altar. Plough.

    Sounds good to me.

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  78. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “have a look at the history of doomsday problems, they are ever present and costly to misguidedly react to.”

    Well given that the US has wasted 3-4 trillion dollars fighting a war in Iraq simply because of that nation’s geopolitical importance (i.e. oil), is the true cost of our dependency on oil being taken into account by the price we pay at the pump?

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  79. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Wat Dabney

    Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nino in the past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

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  80. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    FFF – Sound familiar?

    jonnobanks (28) Says:
    August 26th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
    Maybe it is time to get rid of this Muppet:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5509870/Key-admits-socialist-streak-comment

    Come on defenders of John Key, do you really believe that socialism is ‘caring’? Welfare in not caring, it just keeps the poor in poverty.

    jonnobanks (28) Says:
    August 26th, 2011 at 5:40 pm
    Let me slow it down for you Scott.

    The criticism is not about Kiwis having a ‘streak of socialism’, the criticism is thinking socialism is caring. Please don’t try criticise me, you idiot, by putting words in my post. I never said that kiwis don’t possess a streak of socialism. Of course they do, otherwise they would not vote for Labour or Labur-lite.

    So dumb fuck, thanks for the definition for socialism. Now I feel so educated.

    Here is some education for you, socialism keeps the poor in poverty. Welfare and hand-outs do not help the poor!

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  81. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    # Lee01 (300) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 2:26 pm

    ” There is a difference between “life” and “our current way of life””

    Why should we be concerned about preserving our current way of life? IF global warming is happenning and increasing, and thats a big if, my question would be, so what? It could very well force us to return to a more traditional way of life, which would not be such a bad thing. I’m not talking about the soulles and treasonous crap spouted by the Greens. But a society based on agrarian and spiritual values, with the traditional family at its center and a state whos sole purpose was the preservation and defense of that society.

    Crown. Altar. Plough.

    Sounds good to me.

    ————————————————–

    lol. Each to his own I suppose but personally I don’t favour the “traditional” way of life. Think of the things people died of because society lacked adequate medical technology. Think of the infant mortality rate 100 or 200 years ago. And how does this “traditional” way of life support the 6 or 7 billion people that live on this planet? I suppose a few billion will just have to go into the oven.

    Moreover, I’m not even satisfied with our current way of life. 30 years ago my grandmother died of something that today can be treated and today people are dying of things that I expect they will not die of in another 30 years. Despite the negativity so many people seem to express I see things overall are getting better and better and this trend depends critically on our ability to sustain our economic growth which in turn depends on mother nature being kind to us, or alternatively it depends on us developing the technology that will not invoke nature’s fury.

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  82. kaya (1,360 comments) says:

    Excellent, a debate about global warming/climate change, haven’t had one of those before! :)

    On a more serious note.

    Rapist’s daughter begs for mercy

    The daughter of a prominent Waikato businessman who was jailed for 10 years for raping and indecently assaulting an intellectually disabled teenager has pleaded for a reduced sentence, saying her father would not survive a lengthy prison term.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10747698

    Fuck him, let him die. Scum.

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  83. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    Scott Chris – Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nino in the past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

    ———————

    True, but given their limited predictive capability, it’s hard to be confident that the models are correct. While they are fairly good at “hind-casting” climate change, the data supposedly predicted is not independent of the data used to construct the models in the first place.

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  84. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    kaya – Maybe he should’ve raped someone in Norway.

    http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1989083,00.html

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  85. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    kaya says:

    “Excellent, a debate about global warming/climate change, haven’t had one of those before!”

    Then says:

    “Fuck him, let him die. Scum.”

    Excellent, a comment about summary justice for a change, haven’t had that one before! ;)

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  86. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    “Think of the things people died of because society lacked adequate medical technology. Think of the infant mortality rate 100 or 200 years ago.”

    People always assume that a return to a traditional way of life means giving up technology, or advancements in medicine. This is not the case. Technological innovation has always been a constant, it is not the sole preserve of modernism. The question is more about the uses we put that technology to, and the kinds of overall economic and social systems that technology is embedded in.

    “And how does this “traditional” way of life support the 6 or 7 billion people that live on this planet?”

    We are not supporting them now are we?

    “I see things overall are getting better and better”

    Delusions are wonderful things.

    “or alternatively it depends on us developing the technology that will not invoke nature’s fury.”

    I agree. But you cannot do so without also changing the kind of society we live in, in wholistic terms. Its no good having the right technology if it is embedded in a society based on consumerism, materialism, radical atonomous individualism and moral anarchy. Better technology is part of the answer, but not the whole answer.

    Place. Limits. Liberty.

    http://www.frontporchrepublic.com/

    http://northernagrarian.wordpress.com/

    http://www.wendellberrybooks.com/

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  87. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Weihana (245) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
    “For most of its history, life has existed on an Earth over 6 degrees warmer than today, all our common evolutionary traits were formed in temperatures above that.”

    Not that I believe climate sensitivity is 6 degrees C but this is a ridiculous argument in rebuttal. Life may exist over a wide variety of different environments but that doesn’t mean that modern human society will be able to sustain itself in its present state of prosperity and technological advancement if dramatic change occurs. There is a difference between “life” and “our current way of life”, and I would not want to endure significant climate change even if it didn’t mean the extinction of our species.

    We have no choice, we’ve already lived through 10 degrees of climate change and will have to again and again. Almost every other species on the planet has done it as well. Ask a croc what 6 degrees warmer is like.

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  88. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (576) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
    SB “what warming post 2000?”

    This warming. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GISS_temperature_2000-09_lrg.png

    …and?

    I expect warming up to at least previous interglacials and to reach those temps at an unknown rate.

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  89. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Scott Chris (576) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
    Wat Dabney

    Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nino in the past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

    What about the decline in temperatures from 1940 to 1980?

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  90. starboard (2,536 comments) says:

    “As Judge Marshall handed down 10 years on the first two guilty charges and two years for the third, to be served concurrently, the man pointed to the Crown prosecutor.
    “She is a filthy liar,” he shouted”
    His name remains suppressed because he faces charges over another alleged victim.”

    ..when in hole..stop digging rapist. Me too hope you die in prison whilst being sodomised by a large black man called bubba.

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  91. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Afternoon starboard. Are you also known as “bubba” ?

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  92. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    SB – “What about the decline in temperatures from 1940 to 1980?”

    Yes, temperature was stable during that period. The longer term trend from 1880 is below.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2010_(Fig.A).gif

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  93. starboard (2,536 comments) says:

    ahh Rodders..and his boy wonder milkymike..long time no see.

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  94. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    I knew you would’ve missed me, starboard.

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  95. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “People always assume that a return to a traditional way of life means giving up technology, or advancements in medicine. This is not the case. Technological innovation has always been a constant, it is not the sole preserve of modernism. The question is more about the uses we put that technology to, and the kinds of overall economic and social systems that technology is embedded in.”

    I disagree. Technology is the preserve of our current way of life, i.e. large and well integrated populations that trade in relatively free markets and where individuals specialize in the work they perform.

    “And how does this “traditional” way of life support the 6 or 7 billion people that live on this planet?”

    “We are not supporting them now are we?”

    We are supporting enough that such a population number can be sustained. There is a difference between 7 billion people and 1 billion people. The difference is that 6 billion people have to die in order to reach 1 billion. I wouldn’t shrug my shoulders at such a development.

    “I see things overall are getting better and better”

    “Delusions are wonderful things.”

    Yet many things are getting better and better. Infant mortality is lower now than it was in previous generations. We have more sophisticated technology which improves the quality of our lives. We have access to increasingly advanced medical technology that will extend our lives. And on and on. These aren’t delusions. These are very real and verifiable improvements in life.

    “or alternatively it depends on us developing the technology that will not invoke nature’s fury.”

    “I agree. But you cannot do so without also changing the kind of society we live in, in wholistic terms. Its no good having the right technology if it is embedded in a society based on consumerism, materialism, radical atonomous individualism and moral anarchy. Better technology is part of the answer, but not the whole answer.”

    You presume there is something wrong with consumerism, materialism and individualism. In fact I see these things as the basis for our technological progress and far from producing “moral anarchy” I find society is far more moral today than it has been in previous times. If we look at western nations I think we see extreme improvements in morality from civil rights to educational equality to standards of living for those on the bottom rung of society.

    The basic character of our society need not change, or at least certainly not to some backward way of life that is impractical in modern society. Green technology can be developed and implemented to sustain our energy needs and if we spent a little more money on it rather than investing in pointless wars then we might get there sooner.

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  96. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “We have no choice, we’ve already lived through 10 degrees of climate change and will have to again and again. Almost every other species on the planet has done it as well. Ask a croc what 6 degrees warmer is like.”

    Though it makes a big difference whether that change happens in 100 years or 1000 years.

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  97. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Sup Rodders. You been on holiday?

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  98. starboard (2,536 comments) says:

    Race Relations Commissioner Joris de Bres said New Zealanders often did not realise “golliwog” dolls had a controversial history in other countries where many people find them offensive.
    “It would be wrong to say that a retailer cannot sell golliwog dolls, but I would have thought that good retailers will be well aware that causing people offence is not good for business, especially at a time when we will be expecting a lot of overseas visitors”

    Bawhahaha! Only in fucked up pc Nil Ziland. Fuck off back to the shithole you came from je bres you clown.

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  99. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Scot Chris, I’ve mistaken your post as somehow you were equating to John Banks to Redbaiter.

    So, you think that if John Key had a socialist streak, that’s not a big deal in regards to the founding principles of the National Party? Should a party have a founding principles? Or should they adopt a Pete George type fence sitting, ie, no principles?

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  100. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    “I disagree. Technology is the preserve of our current way of life, i.e. large and well integrated populations that trade in relatively free markets and where individuals specialize in the work they perform.”

    Your saying there was no technology prior to the 19th century? Thats quite a claim.

    “Yet many things are getting better and better. Infant mortality is lower now than it was in previous generations. We have more sophisticated technology which improves the quality of our lives. We have access to increasingly advanced medical technology that will extend our lives. And on and on. These aren’t delusions.”

    No, but they overlook the social, environmental and political decline that is also occuring.

    “You presume there is something wrong with consumerism, materialism and individualism.”

    Yes. They create a soulless society with no values, high crime rates, broken familes, and the ever-expanding totalitarian/surveillence state needed to clean up the mess.

    “I find society is far more moral today than it has been in previous times. If we look at western nations I think we see extreme improvements in morality from civil rights to educational equality to standards of living for those on the bottom rung of society.”

    Then why the high crime rates? Why the huge increases in divorce, abortion (infant mortality is actually higher now as a result than in times past), social dislocation, the need for emotional self-medication (such as the huge increases in the use of alchohol, drugs and anti-depressants). What about the increasing isolation and loneliness described in Rober Putmans ‘Bowling Alone’? What about the increasing cynicism regarding our elected leaders?

    In reality the psuedo morality of civil rights and modern notions of “equality” have not produced a happier or better society.

    “or at least certainly not to some backward way of life that is impractical in modern society”

    Its not impractical if we give up the myths of modernism.

    “Green technology can be developed and implemented to sustain our energy needs and if we spent a little more money on it rather than investing in pointless wars then we might get there sooner.”

    You cannot spend you way to a better society. We have tried that route, and it failed.

    You are right about one thing, green technology can help, but only if it is embedded in a society whose highest moral ideals are not mere selfish notions of individualism and whose highest cultural achievement is not Shortland Street.

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  101. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Afternoon Scott. Haven’t been away but I breached my monthly bandwidth cap, so was temporarily cut back to dial-up speed. I wouldn’t recommend trying to use this website on dial-up.

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  102. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    In reality socialism and radical free market capitalism are merely two sides of the same modernist coin. They both assume a perfectible human nature uncoupled from any notions of God, family, duty and virtue. They both, in their own ways encourage moral anarchy and autonomous individualism. Arguments between ACT/ibertarianz followers and Labour socialists are arguments between people who share the same foundational philosophical assumptions.

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  103. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Falafulu Fisi

    Re redbaiter, yes I see what you mean.

    With regard to the socialist streak: The term is very broad, so the way I interpret what John Key meant, was that Kiwis as a whole believe in state control of certain strategic assets, so he as a result has a moral mandate to govern in accordance with such views.

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  104. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Falafulu Fisi, I’m surprised you resort to shallow nonsense like that. I’ve spoken up on principles here many times, often against your friend Redbaiter. What principles do you have, follow the foaming mouths?

    Talking about fences, RB has fenced himself off into a corner, he can’t fathom the majority centre ground. Are you really like that too?

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  105. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nino in the past century occurred during that year.

    That’s true, but if you look at the chart (and as the accompanying discussion explains) all the high temperatures in the decade after 1998 appear to have been an anomaly; it was clearly a step change and not a rising trend (remember every year we’d have gushing news items about the temperature being in the top 5 etc? Whatever happened to those?) That now appears to have finished and we’re back to temperatures experienced before that period:

    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/07/25/2011-temperature-watch/

    For the record, it appears to have been an ENSO event:

    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/global-temperatures-this-decade-will-be-the-warmest-on-record

    So even allowing for the exceptional temperatures of 1998 the trend still grossly contradicts the AGW theory. We are experiencing temperatures which are the same as they were in the middle of the last century for Christ’s sake. Just what evidence do you need?

    Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

    Of course the point about the Hockeystick was that it purported to demonstrate that there was no appreciable natural variation; hence the abrupt “blade” of the Hockeystick. So it is splendidly ironic to see AGW proponents now invoke natural variability to explain away the recent complete lack of warming. If you can’t explain the recent lack of warming then you can’t explain the brief spell of warming that preceded it, it’s as simple as that.

    If the computer models were any use why weren’t they in complete disagreement with the now-debunked Hockeystick chart? Or, put another way, why aren’t they in complete disagreement with the now accepted history, complete with Medieval Warm Period etc? It seems they are in agreement with two entirely dissimilar climate histories. Why would you possibly suppose that they are in any way a useful depiction of climate activity?

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  106. kowtow (8,439 comments) says:

    Luc @ 947 goes back to his favoured victims referring to theworld’s largest open air prison/concentration camp ,oppressors,whites,colonialism,weapons blah blah. I suppose he means Gaza.

    I’d like to nominate North Korea as said largest open air whatever. And Russia and China as the neo colonial oppressors etc .

    Lefties ,always deflecting.

    And talking of civilised behaviour. What about the latest outrage from the adherents to the religion of peace in Nigeria? An attack on the UN no less.

    There is a civil war on in Nigeria but it’s one we like to ignore because the you know whos are involved and they’re actually nice people, so don’t mention the war. Obama says they’re nice so it must be true.

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  107. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    “In reality socialism and radical free market capitalism are merely two sides of the same modernist coin.”

    Presumably both philosophies would claim to aspire to the best possible outcome for society, which may not be so far from God’s design as you may think.

    The difference is, philosophy attempts to define truth from logical first principals, whereas religion relies on interpretation of dogma, which can be far more subjective.

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  108. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    In reality socialism and radical free market capitalism are merely two sides of the same modernist coin. They both assume a perfectible human nature uncoupled from any notions of God, family, duty and virtue. They both, in their own ways encourage moral anarchy and autonomous individualism. Arguments between ACT/ibertarianz followers and Labour socialists are arguments between people who share the same foundational philosophical assumptions.

    I nominate this for the most ignorant posting ever on this blog.

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  109. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Rodders – “but I breached my monthly bandwidth cap”

    http://www.ppcgeeks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/lib-head-explode.jpg

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  110. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    wat dabney – from your link http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/07/25/2011-temperature-watch/

    “Although it is certainly too soon to say for sure (especially considering that a good portion of the country has been stuck in an extended heat wave), there is a good case to be made that when the final numbers are in at the end of December, that 2011 will go down as another in a recent string (which now stands at three years and counting) of rather unremarkable years when it comes to the national annual average temperature.”

    Better to wait and see.

    “(remember every year we’d have gushing news items about the temperature being in the top 5 etc? Whatever happened to those?)”

    Current estimates by the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, “the error estimate for individual years … is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.

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  111. LabourDoesntWork (290 comments) says:

    Another nail in the anthropogenic global warming coffin …just for luck.

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/25/cern_cloud_cosmic_ray_first_results/

    The first results from the lab’s CLOUD (“Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets”) experiment published in Nature today confirm that cosmic rays spur the formation of clouds through ion-induced nucleation. Current thinking posits that half of the Earth’s clouds are formed through nucleation. The paper is entitled Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

    This has significant implications for climate science because water vapour and clouds play a large role in determining global temperatures. Tiny changes in overall cloud cover can result in relatively large temperature changes.

    Unsurprisingly, it’s a politically sensitive topic, as it provides support for a “heliocentric” rather than “anthropogenic” approach to climate change: the sun plays a large role in modulating the quantity of cosmic rays reaching the upper atmosphere of the Earth….

    Climate models will have to be revised, confirms CERN in supporting literature: “[I]t is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours [sulphuric acid and ammonia] and water alone.”

    (First it was the Soviet Union. Now AGW/CC is collapsing. Where will the global fascists go next?)

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  112. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Rodders

    Go to Telecom, they have new plans available, seem to be cheaper as they are expecting traffic to slow down , see the Govt has passed a law and now people will stop pirating music and movies

    Anyway got 100GB and phone rental for $150

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  113. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Weihana (247) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
    “We have no choice, we’ve already lived through 10 degrees of climate change and will have to again and again. Almost every other species on the planet has done it as well. Ask a croc what 6 degrees warmer is like.”

    Though it makes a big difference whether that change happens in 100 years or 1000 years.

    Why?

    Not that we are anywhere near that, we are currently at 0.6 degrees per century.

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  114. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “I disagree. Technology is the preserve of our current way of life, i.e. large and well integrated populations that trade in relatively free markets and where individuals specialize in the work they perform.”

    “Your saying there was no technology prior to the 19th century? Thats quite a claim.”

    Of course I’m not saying that, but there’s a vast difference between their technology and ours. The way our society operates and the fact that we have advanced since the 19th century is not a coincidence.

    “Yet many things are getting better and better. Infant mortality is lower now than it was in previous generations. We have more sophisticated technology which improves the quality of our lives. We have access to increasingly advanced medical technology that will extend our lives. And on and on. These aren’t delusions.”

    “No, but they overlook the social, environmental and political decline that is also occuring.”

    I do not agree there is social decline in general, the environmental change that is or maybe occurring I believe can be successfully managed, and I do not agree that there is political decline either, especially considering that the internet has opened up a vast amount of knowledge to more voting citizens improving their ability to participate in the political process.

    “I find society is far more moral today than it has been in previous times. If we look at western nations I think we see extreme improvements in morality from civil rights to educational equality to standards of living for those on the bottom rung of society.”

    “Then why the high crime rates?”

    Crime rates have been declining in recent years. But long term you have to look at issues such as the war on drugs which help to promote crime.

    “Why the huge increases in divorce”

    Irrelevant. If people want to divorce they should.

    “, abortion (infant mortality is actually higher now as a result than in times past)”

    Abortions do not count as “infant mortality”.

    “, social dislocation, the need for emotional self-medication (such as the huge increases in the use of alchohol, drugs and anti-depressants).”

    The vast majority of people are not addicts.

    “What about the increasing isolation and loneliness described in Rober Putmans ‘Bowling Alone’? What about the increasing cynicism regarding our elected leaders?”

    Cynicism towards elected leaders is a good thing. We the people are the check on their exercise of power. How can we properly check them if we just trust whatever they do?

    “In reality the psuedo morality of civil rights and modern notions of “equality” have not produced a happier or better society.”

    That is your opinion. I think the people liberated by civil rights movements would likely have a different opinion.

    “Green technology can be developed and implemented to sustain our energy needs and if we spent a little more money on it rather than investing in pointless wars then we might get there sooner.”

    “You cannot spend you way to a better society. We have tried that route, and it failed.”

    You seem to be setting up a straw man such as to suggest that I’m saying that any spending will make a better society. That is obviously not what I am saying, I am suggesting a specific and targeted investment that can benefit society. The very global network you are talking on now was initially funded by the US government which I think proves that certain investments can have large payoffs.

    “You are right about one thing, green technology can help, but only if it is embedded in a society whose highest moral ideals are not mere selfish notions of individualism and whose highest cultural achievement is not Shortland Street.”

    Well I can’t live with that… not Shortland Street, I can do without that. But I cannot accept a society where the individual is subjugated to the ideals of some dictator that says he cannot live for his own sake and his own happiness but must live as a slave to the ideals of his master. Individualism is the only acceptable moral framework and indeed the only one which allows humans to prosper to their greatest potential.

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  115. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    Though it makes a big difference whether that change happens in 100 years or 1000 years.

    Why?

    ————

    Because it is easier to adapt in 1000 years than it is in 100 years. But yes, I accept that observed warming is nowhere near 6 degrees and that sort of figure for climate sensitivity seems highly unlikely.

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  116. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    “see the Govt has passed a law and now people will stop pirating music and movies”

    Tui ad?

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  117. bereal (3,137 comments) says:

    Lovely story in todays Herald page A5 “Carpark giveaways curbed”
    Auckland Transport is to replace 950 parking ticket machines with new ones which print tickets
    that will include the rego number of your car.
    This is to prevent the outrageous and rampant crime of passing a ticket with unused time to
    another person to use. Thus gipping the council out of $2 max.
    Communication manager Sharon Hunter says this is “All about giving more choice to the
    customer through inovation.” and the aim is, “to put the customer first.”
    Mark Stein points out that the age of the tyrant has returned.
    What century do these gormless tyrants believe they will break even on the investment
    of 950 new machines.
    i vote Sharon an award for the most puerile, vacuous and pathetic non explanation this year.

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  118. Weihana (4,537 comments) says:

    Lee01 – “…moral anarchy and autonomous individualism…”

    autonomous is defined in the dictionary as:

    “independent and having the power to make your own decisions”

    So I think it’s clear the kind of “traditional” society Lee01 wants. It’s one where you don’t get to make your own independent decisions concerning your life but rather someone else gets to dictate to you how your life should go. I wonder where Lee01 places himself in the hierarchy of this grand new civilization? ;)

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  119. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    PaulEB @ 4.40pm – thanks for the heads up (I am with xtra). It was probably a one-off breach in my bandwidth cap – the BBC have added a lot to their free podcast website and I got carried away :(

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  120. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    The CERN result only has bearing on about one quarter of the projected change there are other factors that you have to take into account. The projected peak for the present cosmic ray cycle is soon. Then you may see greater change in temperature.
    The problem has all ways been the climate can change quite radically for a small rise in temperature. It could trap us in one side of the EL Nino cycle permanently. Drought for our hydro lakes for instance or to wet for diary.
    A change like this could have massive impaction on our agricultural based economy. we use land much more heavily than we did pre industrial revolution. There would be far more impact now than two hundred years ago.

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  121. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    One thing is certain, CO2 is a valuable plant food.

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  122. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    Yes you of course know what that will do for our timber industry no more quality logs if the trees grow to fast. Also ask any farmer about bloat or kykuya poisoning fast is not always good

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  123. Sonny Blount (1,782 comments) says:

    Weihana (251) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
    Though it makes a big difference whether that change happens in 100 years or 1000 years.

    Why?

    ————

    Because it is easier to adapt in 1000 years than it is in 100 years. But yes, I accept that observed warming is nowhere near 6 degrees and that sort of figure for climate sensitivity seems highly unlikely.

    But 100 years would not present any great difficulty. How much of what we do is the same as 100 years ago? I bet most New Zealanders ancestors did not even live in NZ a century ago.

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  124. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/08/26/hurricane-irene-new-yorks-hurricane-history-ships-on-6th-avenue-long-island-destruction/

    New york will be flooding. Hope they deal with this one better than Katrina

    “Irene looks likely to arrive close to high tide (6:52 p.m. at the Fire Island Coast Guard Station) and during a new moon, a combination called “spring tide” that which will increase the effects of the storm surge.”

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  125. pdm (844 comments) says:

    Can anyone confirm that the last Labour Government gave aid funds to Hamas. My recollection is NZ$500K but I cannot recall when.

    I am in dispute with Grant Robertson over at Red Alert as he deleted my reference to it on the grounds it was an `unsubstantiated allegation’. It is on the thread about aid to the Libyan rebels.

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  126. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    @pdm – found this old link
    http://unispal.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/8D90179CB6FA1FB785257145006C156E

    Luc might know more ?

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  127. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    pdm

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2006/03/national_calls_for_halt_to_hamas_aid.html

    from our very own DPF 2006

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  128. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Where’s Luc.
    I want to tell him about my satisfying job today harvesting fresh carbon.
    Yep whilst i was harvesting fresh carbon stocks to store away for next winter which will be colder than normal due to Global Cooling.
    You should try it LUC The fresh carbon smell just great.

    And hey it will be a great thing to make it into CO2 next year.
    Help the Global Warning during winter.

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  129. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    What’s the matter with the edit function lately??
    It stinks.

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  130. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    The SAS, the Infantry and the police decide to go on a survival weekend together to see who comes out top. After some basic exercises the Instructor tells them their next objective is to go down into the bush and come back with a rabbit for tea.
    First up are the SAS. They don their infra-red goggles, drop to the ground and crawl into the bush in formation. Absolute silence occurs for 5 mins, followed by a single muffled shot. They emerge with a rabbit, shot cleanly through the forehead. “Excellent work” says the Instructor.
    Next up are the Infantry. They finish their cans of Tui, cover themselves in camouflage cream, fix bayonets and charge down into the bush, screaming at the top of their voices. For the next hour the hills ring with the sound of machine gun fire, mortar bombs, hand grenades and blood curdling war cries. Eventually they emerge carrying the charred remains of a rabbit.
    “A bit messy but you got a result, well done” says the Instructor.
    Lastly in go the Police, walking slowly, hands behind backs. For the next few hours the silence is only broken by the occasional cackle of a walkie-talkie: ‘sierra oscar lima one, suspect headed straight for you’ etc. After what seems like an eternity, they emerge escorting an opossum in hand cuffs. “What the hell do you think you are doing?” asks the incredulous Instructor. “Take the opossum back and get me a rabbit, like I asked you to 5 hours ago!!!”
    So back they go. Minutes pass, these minutes turn to hours and day turns to night. The next morning the Trainer and the rest of the crew are awakened by the Police, holding the opossum that is now covered in bruises. “Are you taking the piss?” asks the seriously irate Instructor. The Police team Leader then shoots a glance at the opossum who squeaks, “Alright, alright I am a fucking rabbit!”

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  131. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Key confesses: National socialist

    http://johnansell.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/key-confesses-national-socialist/

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  132. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    NARRATIVE OF A RESIDENCE IN VARIOUS PARTS OF NEW ZEALAND
    Together with a Description
    of the Present State of the Company’s Settlements.
    by CHARLES HEAPHY
    1842
    Port Nicholson

    “In the acquisition of the district from the natives, great care was taken that they should fully comprehend the terms on which they relinquished their rights, and the plan of the Company in respect of the land to be reserved for their benefit. On being told the amount of the immediate payment, their most influential chiefs replied, “that they cared but little about what would be given them for their land, but that they wanted white men and women to settle amongst them, and to bring cattle, and grow corn;” they added, “that the people from Port Jackson, and the missionaries, had repeatedly, when endeavoring to purchase land, promised to come and live with them, but had never done so.” “

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  133. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    There was this guy in a mental hospital. All day long he had his
    ear to the wall, listening. The doctor would watch this guy do this
    day after day.

    The doctor finally decided to see what the guy was listening to,
    so he put his ear up to the wall and listened. He heard nothing.

    He turned to the mental patient and said, “I don’t hear anything.”

    The mental patient said,
    “Yeah, I know. It’s been like that for months!”

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  134. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Viking, you are aware that wood is a renewable resource and that any single tree is carbon neutral for it’s life cycle?

    That is, it has already soaked up from the atmosphere the CO2 you will be releasing.

    We still have of lot of wood to go from the 80 year old gum tree we cut down last year!

    But you sure exhibit a strange attitude, in that you delight in doing something our best sciemtists tell us is going to be very bad for humans.

    Do you hate your own children that much?

    As regards global warming and hurricanes, this is a good link to present:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming.htm

    And I note that there is a quote included from the IPCC 2007 report that “There is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones.”

    So I’m not quite sure what wat’s mate, Chris Landsea was on about in 2005, except that it seems he got his nose out of joint over something not to do with science!

    And here is a chart from NOAA that looks interesting: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/atlhist_lowres.gif

    While it appears that, as I said earlier, it’s too early to tell, nevertheless, evidence is mounting.

    We shall see.

    But of extreme weather events escalating, there is no doubt, and there is no doubt there is a climate change fingerprint in those events.

    Cheers.

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  135. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Fairfax Media awash in a $400m sea of red ink

    James Chessell
    From: The Australian
    August 27, 2011 12:00AM

    And so they want kiwi’s to top up their (Fairfax) funds by selling them 35% of Trademe.
    are there that many gullible Kiwi’s out there.
    Well I supose their is and no doubt our super fund will generously donate to the cause.

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  136. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Puke Hansen would approve of Hurricane Irene if all it did was hang eight year old children like the Taliban do.

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  137. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    A man runs to the doctor and says, “Doctor, you’ve got to help me. My wife thinks she’s a chicken!”

    The doctor asks, “How long has she had this condition?”

    “Two years,” says the man.

    “Then why did it take you so long to come and see me?” asked the shrink.

    The man shrugs his shoulders and replies, “We needed the eggs.”

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  138. pdm (844 comments) says:

    Thanks guys – I have asked for an apology but am not holding my breath.

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  139. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    A very shy guy goes into a bar and sees a beautiful woman sitting at the bar. After an hour of gathering up his courage, he finally goes over to her and asks, tentatively, “Um, would you mind if I chatted with you for a while?”
    She responds by yelling, at the top of her lungs, “NO! I won’t sleep with you tonight!” Everyone in the bar is now staring at them. Naturally, the guy is hopelessly and completely embarrassed and he slinks back to his table.

    After a few minutes, the woman walks over to him and apologizes. She smiles at him and says, “I’m sorry if I embarrassed you. You see, I’m a graduate student in psychology, and I’m studying how people respond to embarrassing situations.”

    To which he responds, at the top of his lungs, “What do you mean $200?!”

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  140. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Luc says:
    But of extreme weather events escalating, there is no doubt, and there is no doubt there is a climate change fingerprint in those events.

    I doubt that the number of events has altered much from what has been the variable norm for several thousand years.

    What does seem to escape your notice is that these events have a greater effect than was able to be reported previously.
    How do we know.
    1. 250 years ago there were few newspapers and certainly no TV to tell the rest of the world what was happening. Evidence exists that show weather events are not new. So floods, Droughts, fires etc have always been around.
    2.There are many more people living in the world and they are living in places that should not be lived on. e.g. Christchurch foreshore seabeds. This applies in many countries and in many places.
    When something dramatic happens it affects more people and because we now have telly etc we all hear about it more.

    Simple logic suggests that there will be more death and destruction as people live in more extreme and modified places.

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  141. bereal (3,137 comments) says:

    burning a bit of time waiting for the footy.

    The queen is visiting a mental hospital.
    She sees a lovely flower garden and asks who is the gardener. She is told
    that its Alf, a patient. She meets Alf and congratulates him on his beautifull garden.
    Alf says thanks and implores the queen to look into his case because he says he has been
    wrongfully committed.
    The queen says anybody who can keep such a lovely garden cant be mad so she agrees to look
    into Alfs case.
    Later, as her majesty is leaving, BONK ! She is hit in the back of her head by a half brick
    someone has thrown at her. She looks round to see who threw the brick.
    Its Alf who waves and calls out, “dont you forget now your majesty.”

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  142. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    I’ve just been banned from Trade Me.
    Apparently, a piece of string and a house brick cannot be sold as a ‘penis enlargement kit’.

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  143. wat dabney (3,756 comments) says:

    But of extreme weather events escalating, there is no doubt, and there is no doubt there is a climate change fingerprint in those events.

    None of which is true.

    He’s like the Walter Mitty of global warming isn’t he.

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  144. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    nasska (1,447) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 8:03 pm

    I’ve just been banned from Trade Me.
    Apparently, a piece of string and a house brick cannot be sold as a ‘penis enlargement kit’.

    Certainly not. how could you think so.
    They doo that by charging Kiwis money to buy into their company debts.

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  145. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    Luc is confused and soon will be starting on the next phase of his journey, Paranoia.

    We are coming to get him soon. We whom wear white coats.

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  146. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    V2

    I can feel another Trade Me fees hike coming on

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  147. Steve (4,560 comments) says:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/fan-central/5516302/Spiritual-support-offered-during-RWC

    Spiritual Support offered during RWC by ‘Engage NZ’ Well how about that? Someone is going to lose a game and may need guidance from those who don’t even play hard sport. Fuck off! there are going to be heaps of losers and only one winner.
    Who is paying for this service that Ms Heyden is offering? Oh yeah we don’t want anybody’s feelings hurt in a World Wide Competition.
    Why do we have to have these suckholers to babysit a loser? taking our hard earned dollars to help people who lost a game because they where not good enough on the day.
    Someone is a winner and the rest all lose Ms Heyden. Wake up and open your eyes. That goes for all of you similar thinking coqsucking iceholes

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  148. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    V2

    …”We are coming to get him soon. We whom wear white coats.”….

    It’s all very sad really.

    Still, with modern drugs & extensive therapy there may be cause for some slight hope that he may regain partial contact with reality & the real world.

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  149. Steve (4,560 comments) says:

    Oh Viking2, I think Luc is one of those who wears a white coat. Explains heaps don’t it. Most trick cyclists are borderline

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  150. nasska (11,478 comments) says:

    Q. What’s the difference between Vaseline and Super-glue?
    A. About 4 hours sitting in the A+E department with your hand glued to your cock!

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  151. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    It seems that IPredict may be too easily manipulated with money by the look of these predictions.

    What share of the party vote will the Conservative Party win at the next election? Prediction: 8.8%
    What share of the party vote will the New Citizen Party win at the next election? Prediction: 4.2%

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  152. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Hurf Durf plays a sick game.

    Obviously has forgotten already Operation Cast Lead and this.

    Hurf, do your parents know how sick you are?

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  153. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    That’s the guilt knocking at your soul, Luc.

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  154. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Meanwhile, viking2 and the other climate experts here, why don’t you all go and contribute to this dissing of Bill McKibben at the NYT?

    Join in the comments. There are some eminent names joining in already.

    PS Bill McKibben’s reply is No 13 in the comments.

    Go on, show us your grasp of the issues and enlighten the world.

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  155. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    I don’t have a soul, Hurf.

    I suspect you don’t even have a conscience.

    What’s you Dad’s phone number. He needs to know that you need help.

    And I’ve still got an hour to fill in before Go Black!

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  156. Steve (4,560 comments) says:

    Someone is going to steal your hat one day Luc, then you will have to listen or go away.
    I mean the replies you give do not even stay on the same tangent

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  157. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    Next month’s Palestinian bid to go to the UN should not be read as an act of hostility but as a desperate plea for freedom and justice, albeit a misguided one – something that an increasing number of Israelis are growing to realise. Sadly, such enlightenment is not shared by the ideologues currently leading the Israeli government, and the Palestinian leadership; both the PA and Hamas benefit in their own warped ways from the status quo.

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  158. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    …stay on the same tangent

    WTF?????

    Mrs Malaprop would be proud of you!

    Let’s all do the time warp tangents..with a jump to the left…and a step to the right…

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  159. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    Top Twenty quotes heard around the Act caucus in 2010/2011.

    1. I can see your point, but I still think you’re full of shit.
    2. I have plenty of talent and vision. I just don’t give a fuck.
    3. How about “never”? Is “never” good for you?
    4. It sounds like English, but I can’t understand a word you’re saying.
    5. I see you’ve set aside this special time to humiliate yourself in public.
    6. Ahhh, I see the fuck-up fairy has visited us again.
    7. You are validating my inherent mistrust of strangers.
    8. I’m already visualising the duct tape over your mouth.
    9. The fact that no one understands you doesn’t mean you’re an artist.
    10. Someday, we’ll look back on this, laugh nervously and change the subject.
    11. I will always cherish the initial misconceptions I had about you.
    12. I don’t know what your problem is, but I’ll bet it’s hard to pronounce.
    13. Any connection between your reality and mine is purely coincidental.
    14. I like you. You remind me of when I was young and stupid.
    15. No, my powers can only be used for good.
    16. What am I? Flypaper for freaks!?
    17. I’m not being rude. You’re just insignificant.
    18. Thank you. We’re all refreshed and challenged by your unique point of view.
    19. It’s a thankless job, but I’ve got a lot of Karma to burn off.
    20. Yes, I am an agent of Satan, but my duties are largely ceremonial. (Don Brash ? Who would you attribute the rest too?).

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  160. Other_Andy (2,676 comments) says:

    Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah have blood on their hands.

    Hamas uses schools, hospitals, mosques and homes of civilians as launching grounds for their missiles. They store weapons in between civilians.
    The Palestinian Authority, intentionally mobilises Palestinian children to man the front line of protests against Israel, frequently using them as shields to protect Palestinian gunmen. The children act as bait, burning tires and shooting slingshots, to attract the television cameras and distract the IDF, in tandem with well-armed Palestinian gunmen in ambush positions.Since the Palestinian public knows that Israeli soldiers are ordered not to shoot live ammunition at children, they act as shields to protect Palestinian snipers who shoot to kill any exposed members of the IDF. When the youth rush forward throwing stones and Molotov cocktails, Palestinian snipers on rooftops and in alleys take aim at the IDF, on some occasions actually shooting Palestinian children from behind.
    Our brave Hamas and Hezbollah militants intentionally drag Arab children into the line of fire, forcing them to become “martyrs” — all to garner international sympathy for the Arab cause and censure for Israel.
    They indoctrinate children at school and in mosques in hating Jews.
    They dress school children up in uniforms and train them to kill Jews.
    They parade them around giving nazi salutes.
    They dress infants up in suicide belts and use them as propaganda props in pallywood productions, dead or alive.
    They have used children as suicide bombers, forced the mentally disabled to ‘martyr’ themselves and rigged animals with explosives and chased them into IDF posts.
    The Hamas Motto is “We love death more than the Jews love life.”

    These are the people Luc supports.
    They are Luc’s freedom fighters.

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  161. Scott Chris (6,135 comments) says:

    Actually Luc, I rather like “stay on the same tangent”. Makes sense to me. More of a mixed metaphor really.

    Here’s one from George W:

    “The law I sign today directs new funds… to the task of collecting vital intelligence… on weapons of mass production.”

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  162. publicwatchdog (2,593 comments) says:

    Four days after I lodged a formal complaint with Auckland Police about unlawful threats on facebook to burn down bookshops, and unlawful threats to ‘kill’ Macsyna King – the hateful, misleading and deceptive ‘Boycott the Macsyna King Book’ facebook site was ‘gone by lunchtime, Sunday 14 August 2011. ‘Boycotters’ had been whipped up into a state of semi-hysteria over the LIE that mother Macsyna King was going to profit from her ‘attrocious deeds’ through telling her story.

    Never mind – getting your facts straight.

    Never mind – there are always at least two sides to the story and both sides should be heard – if you have any basic concept of ‘fair play’.

    Never mind that in this country – one is presumed innocent until PROVEN guilty.

    Never mind that ‘freedom of expression’ does not extend to making comments which are untrue (defamatory); offensive; or threatening.

    What I found to be truly scary was the nearly 50,000 people who ‘liked’ the (former) ‘Boycott the Macsyna King Book’ facebook site, who effectively jumped on this bandwagon, without knowing who was driving it (Chris Murray, Senior Consultant at Dimension Data was the former ‘Admin’) and where it was heading – at a time ‘the book’ hadn’t even been printed.

    On Tuesday 16 August 2011, Whitcoulls bookstores started selling Ian Wishart’s ‘Breaking Silence’ – profits from sales of this book are going to charity. There are still some major bookstores such as Paper Plus and The Warehouse who still have not yet reversed their decisions not to stock ‘Breaking Silence’.

    On the other hand – the remaining ‘hardcore’ boycott remnants can’t explain:
    ONE: WHAT they’re boycotting a) the BUYING of ‘Breaking Silence’ b)the READING of ‘Breaking Silence’ or : c) the BOOKSTORES which are STOCKING ‘Breaking Silence’.
    TWO: WHY they’re STILL boycotting ‘Breaking Silence – given that they now know that Macsyna King is NOT ‘profiting’ from the sales of ‘Breaking Silence'; Macsyna King did not ‘kill her baby sons'; and profits from sales of ‘Breaking Silence’ sold at Whitcoulls are being donated to charity.

    Kiwibloggers who believe that in a ‘free and democratic society’ YOU should have the right to decide whether or not YOU wish to read a book – something you could do to support our lawful right to ‘freedom of expression’ is to make contact with Paper Plus and The Warehouse on their facebook pages and request that they reconsider their decision NOT to stock ‘Breaking Silence’?

    For more information on the debate/ discussions about ‘Breaking Silence’ you can check out on facebook: ‘Breaking Silence:The Kahui case – Support the Book’

    That would be a big help – in my considered opinion. Cheers! Penny Bright http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

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  163. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Hamas, Hezbollah and PLO/Fatah were all formed as a result of Israeli aggression, dispossession and oppression of Palestinians.

    Israel’s sins have always been and remain far greater than those three organisations, but that doesn’t make any of it right, just puts it in context.

    For a more balanced view, and not one dependent on the presumed villainy of one party or the other, why don’t you spend some time in the website of the Israeli peace organisation Btselem?

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  164. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    Can we let the babies rest in peace.
    That would be a big help – in my considered opinion. Fuck off and peddle your wares elsewhere ambulance chaser.

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  165. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    Luc Hansen

    “Since the beginning of the al-Aqsa intifada, there has been a sharp increase in the number of attacks perpetrated by Palestinian organizations against Israeli civilians. These attacks have killed hundreds of Israelis and wounded thousands, including many minors, inside Israel and in the Occupied Territories. Attacks aimed at civilians undermine all rules of morality and law. Specifically, the intentional killing of civilians is considered a “grave breach” of international humanitarian law and a war crime. Whatever the circumstances, such acts are unjustifiable.”

    Guess were this comes from?

    Your link.

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  166. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Your point, Griff? Is there something there I’m meant to disagree with?

    Here is their statistics page http://old.btselem.org/statistics/english/

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  167. LabourDoesntWork (290 comments) says:

    Hamas, Hezbollah and PLO/Fatah were all formed as a result of Israeli aggression, dispossession and oppression of Palestinians.

    The vast majority of the Palestinian Arabs left Israel voluntarily before Israel was attacked soon after its founding. Almost as many Jews were kicked out of Arab countries but were absorbed by Israel. The Palestinian Arabs’ plight is the result of the Arab world shunning them and then blaming Israel for their troubles. Nobody hears about the numerous other refugee situations of the recent past. Do the descendents of a million Muslims kicked out of Greece and similar numbers of Greeks kicked out of Turkey in the 20s have a “right of return” to the respective lands? Of course not, that’s absurd. Jordan won’t allow Palestinians to become citizens and Lebanon legislates against employing them… Who employs so many Palestinian Arabs and allows them across their border? Israel.

    Hamas, Hezbollah, and the PLO are genocidal nazis faithful to their unholy Koran which promises the day when every Jew will be killed!

    IMO, no one should be under the illusion that leftists who side against Israel are truly concerned about the Palestinians. (I consider myself on their side when I condemn their evil leaders and the disgusting treatment they’ve received from the entire Arab world.) The same used to side with Israel when it was the socialist underdog of the region. Now that Israel is a successful capitalist state they just can’t bring themselves to do anything other than side against it. Leftists are always ideologically motivated narcissists first: history and facts don’t matter. There’s just nothing in it for suchlike to side with Israel.

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  168. Other_Andy (2,676 comments) says:

    “Hamas, Hezbollah and PLO/Fatah were all formed as a result of Israeli aggression, dispossession and oppression of Palestinians.”

    Pffff.
    Violence against Jews in the Middle East and in present day Israel by the Arabs has been going on for 1400 years. Long before Zionism, long before the establishment of Israel, long before the formation of the Einsatzgruppe Hamas, Fatah or Hezbollah, long before the ‘Israeli aggression, dispossession and oppression of Palestinians’ narrative was invented.

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  169. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    There is to sides to this argument one is the Arab world including Palestinian Arabs are sworn to kill Israel
    The other is the Arab world is treating Palestinian Arabs like shit to prove a point.

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  170. publicwatchdog (2,593 comments) says:

    @Monique Watson (62) Says:
    August 27th, 2011 at 9:54 pm

    Can we let the babies rest in peace.
    That would be a big help – in my considered opinion. Fuck off and peddle your wares elsewhere ambulance chaser.”

    errr….. Nobody yet has been held accountable for the deaths of the (Kahui) ‘babies’ you want to ‘rest in peace’ Monique.

    The mother Macsyna King has told her story to try and help get justice for HER baby sons – I for one support her lawful right to tell her story, Ian Wishart’s lawful right to write her story and the public’s lawful right to read this story.

    The basic human right to freedom of expression – which I’m helping defend here – is YOUR right as well.
    How sad that you don’t (yet) ‘get it’ Monique?

    Perhaps reading ‘Breaking Silence’ might help broaden your perspective and understanding of the issues here?
    I live in hope.

    Kind regards, Penny Bright

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  171. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Violence against Jews in the Middle East and in present day Israel by the Arabs has been going on for 1400 years.

    Jesus wept.

    Europeans invented anti-Semitism.

    Europeans invented pogroms.

    Europeans carried out the Holocaust.

    What alternate universe do you live in?

    Griff

    So you mean you think Palestinians should have just left their ancestral lands to the European invaders?

    LBW

    You need to read history rather than Israeli hasbara. Yours is the Monckton Method applied to The Question of Palestine.

    John Key

    20-3.

    Snap poll shows you have plummeted 10 points!

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  172. adze (2,126 comments) says:

    They must have heard you Luc!

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