McCarten says PM a sure pick
August 14th, 2011 at 2:00 pm by David FarrarMatt McCarten writes in the HoS:
In three months the World Cup will be over and all focus will be on the other competition this year – the general election.
A mate of mine was confidently predicting to me that if the All Blacks lost, Prime Minister John Key was toast. I’ve heard this sort of crystal ball gazing in every election.
Labour will need a lot more than an All Black loss to dent Key’s chances of re-election.
They’d need our rugby team knocked out in the first round; followed by mayhem on a scale of this week’s English riots; unemployment to soar past 10 per cent; and interest rates to go through the roof.
Even then I suspect none of it would stick to Key.
So before the World Cup drowns out politics, I thought it might be interesting to analyse the chances of each of the political teams.
National: The only question is whether they can rule alone or will need a coalition partner.
Anything less than 46 per cent of the vote will be seen as a defeat for Key. If he gets more than 50 per cent he’s the new Keith Holyoake and will remain Prime Minister for as long as he likes.
August 14th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Labour 30 seats + Greens 20 seats + Mana 7 seats + NZ First 5 seats- if all get the best that they’ve polled/claimed and don’t cannibalise each other- yes, they can. Unlikely in the extreme, but theoretically possible.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
labour 30 + Visitors from the planet Vulcan+ etc etc, yep possible but highly unlikely
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Rereading McCarten I note that he speaks of an “optimistic soothsayer” who “made a wager that the All Blacks would lose the World Cup, even he wouldn’t risk any money that National would lose the general election”. Do I understand that McCarten regards predicting an AB loss as optimism?
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Key has made so many statements that this or that policy won’t happen while he’s Prime Minister I suspect he’ll stay just long enough to swap his birthday picture of him and his girlfriend with one of him being knighted.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
As someone on GD noted Mac is not noted for being right very often.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Labour in coalitions with Greens, NZ First & Mana and forming a Govt. Hang on… my flying pigs are about to take off and circle the beehive.
In their dreams.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
There is an assumption New Zealanders are fanatic about the world cup.
Vote:Well maybe some decades ago.
But not now, and even less than two weeks ago.
World cup result won’t make a dot of difference to the election.
August 14th, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Pauleastbay – won’t happen, Vulcans are the most logical beings in the federation and therefore wouldn’t support a Labour government.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 3:53 pm
Why do you constantly give the rantings of this dishonest fuckwit the time of day?
Vote:He would gain a tiny amount of credibility if he paid back the money he owes us all.
August 14th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
I’m not interested in rugby myself KH but I do think an AB win would mean a boost for Key and I also think a loss won’t be reflected as a negative either. I think people would see a loss as just another one and blame Graham.
If the thing is efficient and well run, it also places that effort before the public which could make a difference. And if the converse happens the public will take note but I don’t think that’s going to happen although no doubt the media will try to blow up something during the tournament and pretend that yes, it’s a total organisational meltdown at the highest levels.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
McCarten seems to have an inbuilt hatred of capitalism, the political right and rich people. So whenever he boosts John Key or National I take notice. I am sure he only does so through gritted teeth. Previously he was gloating over the trouble capitalism is in with the economic downturn. He doesn’t seem to realise while the free enterprise system can have it’s problems socialism is a dead duck except where it is forced on people.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
McCarten seems to have an inbuilt hatred of capitalism, the political right and rich people.
Yes, he’s the standard A-19 C-class Lefty model with the Progressive Upgrade Bob. You can look-up his user guide on the web if you’re curious. Personally I haven’t bothered.
You touch on a good point though. How come whenever lefties e.g. Sue Bradford are ranting on about the “system” the interviewer e.g. Catherine Ryan never asks the simple question: what’s your alternative?
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 4:25 pm
ABs are favourites to win and are generally expected to do so, so it’s a bit optimistic to place money on their losing, just as it’s optimistic to spend money on a lottery ticket.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Interesting crop of commenters there. A number of them leaving the country apparently (including the one who thinks you spell Tasman as Tasmin. Guess Abel Tasman wasn’t an important guy at the school they went to). And apparently Key is going to sell the government “assets” off if reelected. God, I wish he would!!
The thing that always amazes me is the economic illiteracy of so many on the left. Even a basic understanding of economics would tell you that when you sell something (willing seller, willing buyer):
1. Both parties are better off, else the transaction wouldn’t have happened. The seller wants the money more than they want the asset. The buyer wants the asset more than they want the money
2. Whether its a good idea or not doesn’t depend on how much profit the asset you sold might make in future. It depends on what you do with the money you get from selling. Put it to a more productive use, and you’re better off. Fritter it away on a train set, and you’re worse off.
So why is there no focus on the investments that Key plans to make from the sales? A broadband network I’d argue will add little to growth, but I understand that others have valid views otherwise. I can imagine better roads in Auckland adding to growth. I can even imagine proper public transport adding to growth. Certainly investment in education is good – if we are careful about how we do it (paying my cousin to go to university whilst on the DPB wasn’t a good investment, as she appears to have no intention of getting a job with it. Paying someone to become a machinist, a fitter turner, a farmer – those are potentially all good investments).
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Certainly investment in education is good – if we are careful about how we do it… Paying someone to become a machinist, a fitter turner, a farmer – those are potentially all good investments).
Quite agree Paul. Personally were I Key I’d plow everything into debt repayment and anything at all I spent would be on education, but that won’t happen, cause we need to re-build Christchurch.
Interesting things happening there, with a 7 story CBD limit making it virtually unviable for property developers and owners. OK. So what happens now then? What about the pre and current market value of those sites? Whose paying for that and at what valuation?
My theory Paul re: the Left is they do it on purpose. They have to know. They’re intelligent just like us. They fucking know. But if they don’t pretend they’re the white knights saving the poor and dispossessed the whole rotten edifice comes crashing down. So they deliberately portray markets and corporations as evil selfish creatures: i.e. they anthropomorphise them to make them even more scawy to their poor huddled masses. This of course means their base are kept, by them, in a permanent state of darkness, simply so they can maintain their hold over them.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
We have been here before with the Governing Party losing votes during the campaign. But this time around I am not so sure. The reason being Goff. He has been around for such a long time that I doubt he will make any improvement during the campaign. He has been every possible position on all the important issues especially taxing and spending. Now he is high tax and high spending. he is even going into the election proposing a new tax. Nasty aspects of this are coming out. People who have a home office may find their home is subject to CGT. The CGT will not win Labour the election and I hope they go into another election proposing it. So what is the prediction. I just don’t know, but I do not see Goff improving during the campaign.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
“they do it on purpose. They have to know. They’re intelligent just like us. They fucking know. But if they don’t pretend they’re the white knights saving the poor and dispossessed the whole rotten edifice comes crashing down. So they deliberately portray markets and corporations as evil selfish creatures: ”
Exactly so.
They cynically provide legitimacy for greed and theft, lining their own pockets and indulging their instincts to control other people in the process.
And when poverty was eradicated in the West they suddenly they switch to ‘equality’ to keep the plundering bandwagon rolling.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 6:04 pm
Exactly wat. The move to defining poverty as a relative thing was a master stroke. As soon as poverty is relative instead of absolute, there’s no plausible way to eliminate it, so you can keep complaining about it forever without actually ever needing to do anything.
Even better when you realise that everybody has a natural progression in their life – from poor student, to struggling entry level worker, mortgage laden middle income family, through to relatively affluent middle age. If you look closely at poverty you discover that much poverty is made up of:
– middle income children at university, choosing to live like “the other half”
– very wealthy people with no taxable income
– people in their twilight years, living on the pension (but also with low expenses, and sometimes with a family trust or family money)
In Australia, I remember listening to a podcast from the outgoing director of the CIS. He’d waged, and won, a battle against the Australian Bureau of Statistics over how they presented income, and finally got them to update their income analysis to reflect the fact that a large proportion of the people in the bottom 10% of the income distribution had expenditure far greater than their income (i.e. were actually moderately wealthy people with little taxable income, or people living outside the tax system but not poor in the traditional sense of the word). Very interesting statistics, but it was a fair while ago now, no copy of it.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
tvb (1,899) Says:
August 14th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Now he is high tax and high spending. he is even going into the election proposing a new tax. Nasty aspects of this are coming out. People who have a home office may find their home is subject to CGT. The CGT will not win Labour the election and I hope they go into another election proposing it.
Wait up a moment.
I posted a report a couple of days ago in which English said categorically the in principle he agreed with the need for a CGT.
Just remember when you vote that there ain’t a lot of difference between Labour and Labour Light.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Sure, there’s a world of difference. National are a far better manager of your money than Labour are. Admittedly, they’re still taxing the country into the ground, but at least they’re not buying train sets with the proceeds.
Vote:August 14th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Yep they are. They are borrowing 300 mil a week and a couple of weeks ago 700 mil.
Even Cullen never got that bad and he was bad.
On the train set, National a are buying other stuff, e.g. broadband at an even greater cost.
now I can see the potential for this in lots of ways.
Vote:Rail, while it wouldn’t have been a first choice to buy I can also see why. One only needs live in the Bay and see the logs going down the line to appreciate the state our roads would be in if rail had collapsed. Cullen’s bargaining power however wasn’t so great.
August 14th, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Viking2 the amount of money we have poured into rail could have paid for a parallel roading network for trucks.
Vote:August 15th, 2011 at 9:50 am
reid Adidas are not an evil greedy pack of bastards ?
Vote:You may want to run that past the average NZ punter
August 15th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
‘Even then I suspect none of it would stick to Key.’
haha
The teflon don Key
Vote: