Poll Demographics
August 31st, 2011 at 10:41 am by David FarrarI will blog on other issues later today (am about to fly to Hamilton) but want to cover off some fascinating demographics from the Fairfax Poll. They’ve used Keith Ng to display them visually, which is great.
Some tidbits:
- Amongst men, National 59%, Labour 23%
- Even amongst women, National twice as high – 55% to 28%
- Over 60s – National 59%, NZF 7.5%, Labour 23%
- Under 30s – Greens 17%
- Rural – Labour 20%
- Auckland – National 65%, Labour 20%,
- Struggling households – Labour 39%, National 38%
- 2008 Labour voters – 15% now voting National, 7% now voting Greens
- 2008 Labour voters – 21% prefer Key as PM, 21% Goff
- 2011 Green voters – 20% prefer Key as PM, 12% Goff
- Struggling Households – 42% prefer Key as PM, 9.5% Goff
- Auckland – Key 63%, Goff 8%
- Rural – Key 59%, Goff 3%
I think is is rather fortunate for Phil Goff this poll didn’t come out on Monday, before caucus.
Tags: Polls
August 31st, 2011 at 10:50 am
Whaaaaaaaaat.
[DPF: Indicates to me they are leftie voters who don't like Goff, quite like Key but can't quite bring themself to vote National]
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:54 am
It just proves that the young are ignorant and the old are stupid.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 11:03 am
I think is is rather fortunate for Phil Goff this poll didn’t come out on Monday, before caucus.
Would it matter? He said a while ago when the tide is against you it’s very difficult no matter what you try
Vote:- and he seems to have a daily rip tide.
- and the various camps don’t seem keen to dip their toes in the water
August 31st, 2011 at 11:54 am
Hmmmm, Labour at 20% in Auckland? The Herald poll has them at 38.6% – that’s quite a difference. And Labour has trended higher in Auckland than the rest of the country for a while now. Being that far out for one third of the country brings down the headline figure quite a lot.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 11:55 am
There will be certain politicians looking forward to the world Cup, not because of the sport but it will present a pleasant distraction from the misery of the polls.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Helen’s legacy.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:59 pm
If they have Labour at 20% in Auckland, their sampling must be terribly suspect. That eans their non-Auckland vote must be almost 8% higher.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 1:33 pm
National has the two main indicators covered.
Vote:(1) Who ever wins Auckland will be the next govt. Because under MMP that’s where the numbers (people) are.
(2) Who ever is the most preferred Prime Minister. Because you would not have the most preferred Prime Minister in opposition. The only way National could start to fail is if John Key is no longer leader… but even then they still have Auckland.
August 31st, 2011 at 7:34 pm
Seems a curious Auckland result given that the “city” has gone severely pinko with the dodgy looney Len.
As for the Gaffster being fortunate it didn’t come out before Monday’s caucus? I don’t know about that. This gives him far more time to spend fretting about fronting caucus next week. The more misery heaped on this slimey lying little prick the better. Hopefully this, plus the news that after about a day in the ‘stan, the prissy bed wetter Carter is set up for life at the UN, will send this frightful little creep over the edge. Good job.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:10 pm
Just after the 2008 election I bumped into Darren Hughes in Wellington and had a chat about how Labour could avoid being like the 2002 Nats. His view (and I thought it was the right one) was the caucus needed to be completely united, relentlessly focus on recapturing the voters they had lost since 2005 with broadly attractive policy and ensure they set the policy agenda by differentiating themselves from National.
Having failed at point 1, they have lost creditability on point 2 because their policy gets drowned out by all the disunity. They have differentiated themselves in that there is now a perception that Labour aren’t capable of organising a piss up in a brewery and can’t be trusted in power.
Vote:September 1st, 2011 at 5:24 pm
It would be very interesting to see how National would poll without John Key. I’d say his popularity is responsible for a huge portion of their voting numbers. And part the reason why ACT are getting stomped on as well.
National need a solid post-john-key strategy or it will be dark days ahead.
Vote: