Who would survive?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:00 am by David FarrarOn the Fairfax poll, Labour would lose 11 seats in Parliament. But when a party drops this low, it is getting very difficult to work out who they would be. Why? It depends on the electorates.
Labour are predicted to get 32 MPs on this poll. Now if no electorates change hands (except Labour take Wigram), they have 22 electorates, so get 10 List MPs.
That means Andrew Little, Shane Jones, Darien Fenton, Moama Mackey and Rajen Prasad would survive. However Raymond Huo, Carol Beaumont, Kelvin Davis, Carmel Sepuloni, Rick Barker, Stuart Nash and Steve Chadwick would be gone.
However Labour believe they can win Te Tai Tonga and West Coast-Tasman. If they did, then Mackey and Prasad would both miss out also. And if Labour dropped another 1.6% then Shane Jones would also be out of Parliament. And another 0.8% below that and Andrew Little won’t make it in.
However there is a silver lining for the List MPs. If Labour’s party vote is as low as under 26%, then they may start losing electorates. Normally safe electorates such as Te Atatu and Mana could go, along with marginal Rimutaka, Palmerston North and Waimakariri. Even New Lynn could come into play.
Hipkins, Twyford, Lees-Galloway,and Faafoi are ranked low on the list and Cosgrove is not on it. So if those five lost their seats, they would be goneburger, meaning MPs such as Mackey, Prasad, Huo and Beaumont would survive.
This is one of the tensions of MMP. List candidates do better, when their party loses electorate seats!
Related posts:
- Final Fairfax poll
- Will it be 2002 reversed?
- Shearer needs 61% of caucus to survive
- Labour’s lowest poll since 1996
August 31st, 2011 at 10:03 am
If labour’s support is REALLY that low and the Greens is that high then they could lose more electorate seats (due to split voting) but each get more on list. Or if the lefties were bright enough to tactically vote (Labour electorate and Green list) they might do even better. Of course once you’ve signed up to a set of leftist beliefs I have to assume you really aren’t that bright.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:07 am
The greens would have to be nasty enough to target labour votes specifically.
They wouldn’t do that would they?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:09 am
Gee, hard to decide which scenario would be a greater tragedy for Labour. Such outstanding talent under threat either way. How could the party survive without such luminaries as Faafoi and Beaumont?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:11 am
meaning MPs such as Mackey, Prasad, Huo and Beaumont would survive .. agree with SR above .. how can this be good for Labour?
Vote:Redablurt is quiet .. are they in the bunker?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:11 am
Also, assume Phil is No1 on the Labour list then does a Helen Clark on election night and chucks his toys totally, it will either drive the list down one or create a by-election. Mind you PG has nowhere else to go as he has not been privileged to be PM and able to devote the whole resources of Government to establishing his Super Scheme.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:23 am
Gee I hope Rajen survives the cut. What a dreadful blow to parliamentary democracy if he doesn’t.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:26 am
Key will be magnanimous in victory and give Goofy a sinecure a la Cullen.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:26 am
” However Labour believe they can win Te Tai Tonga and West Coast-Tasman”
Why the Frik would West Coasters go back to the Labour party that has deserted then in favour of the tree hugging greens that have an agenda to decimate the West Coasts economy. The Labour party has long since sold out its roots to its once spiritual home.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:27 am
Mackey, Prasad, Huo and Beaumont – imagine them as the post election Labour brains trust. It would almost be like voting Key dictator for life
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:33 am
Seriously, a low election result for Labour would be the best thing for them. Time to jettison the old wood and bring in some new blood. Only a low result can do this for them. National is pretty much assured a third time right now, and if there is no significant turnover in Labour MPs this time, a fourth term will be a serious possibility.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:38 am
Oh please let plughead lose his seat and be gone.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Speaking of Te Atatu, what’s happening with Chris Carter?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:37 pm
Chris Carter has taken up a job with the UN (thanks Helen) to fight corruption in Afghanastan(‘set a thief to catch a thief’).
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:53 pm
It looks like the Greens and Labour are morphing.
Will Dr Norman lead the Green Labour Party in 2014?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 1:31 pm
A merger in a MMP environment would be irrational.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 2:19 pm
@ smttc,10 38, That would take all Judith Collins fun away Bwwwwwwwha.
Vote:Can only hope the odious little prick gets the arse but with the movement of Aranui to Ranginui his chances must be a little better.