A sensible decision

September 19th, 2011 at 8:58 am by David Farrar

Steve Hopkins at Stuff reports:

The leader of the Conservative Party, , has confirmed he will stand as the electorate candidate.

The announcement today ends speculation he would stand against John Banks in Auckland’s Epsom.

Craig says he was attracted to the challenge of taking on Banks, his former mayoral campaign rival, but he’s ”followed his heart by standing for the people” of Rodney.

”I’ve lived in Rodney and my business involvement here has spanned more than 20 years. Many of my family live here and I’m passionate about getting things moving for everyone in the region,” he says.

Craig’s father Ross Craig was a Rodney district councillor until the Auckland super city council was formed last year.

This is a much more sensible decision, than standing in Epsom would have been. Standing in Epsom would only have benefited Labour.

Craig appears to be seeking the same sort of voters as NZ First – socially conservative, and economically centrist. If NZ First does not make it back in, then in 2014 Craig has the possibility of picking up many of his voters. In 2011, it will be harder.

The Conservative Party claims polling in the area shows Craig is ahead of his nearest rival.

Meanwhile, further polling by the party claims to show Banks is struggling to win over Epsom voters.

Of those who had decided who they were likely to vote for as an electoral candidate in Epsom, 35.3 per cent say they would vote for the National candidate, 31.4 per cent would tick Banks, and 27.4 per cent say they would give their vote Craig if he was on the ballot paper.

So the Conservative Party claims it is ahead in Rodney? I’d love to see the name of the polling company they use for these polls, and what he exact questions were.

UPDATE: Act on Campus point out Craig was polling against the retiring MP, not the actual National candidate. He must literally have money to waste.

Personally I’m even more doubtful of a poll that says Craig would beat Lockwood if he was standing again.

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29 Responses to “A sensible decision”

  1. Rodders (1,756 comments) says:

    “Craig appears to be seeking the same sort of voters as NZ First”

    without NZ First’s migrant-bashing, presumably?

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  2. James Stephenson (2,266 comments) says:

    ahead of his nearest rival

    Yes, well there are a host of ways you can weasel that statement around….

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  3. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Colin Graig is a couple of good ideas that are glued together with a detatchment from reality and a school boy level wish list of unworkable plans.

    Anyone who actually thought about the issues he claims to have the answers for would not vote for him.

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  4. Pete George (23,798 comments) says:

    “Craig appears to be seeking the same sort of voters as NZ First”

    Over 80s?

    I think his local electorate is the best choice. Epsom would have been attention seeking madness.

    Maybe Craig uses the same polling company Don Brash said he would use after his coup. This isn’t the first time he has been talking up his numbers – he has to somehow get across the perception that his party is a credible option.

    When did a new party get seats in parliament with no current MPs? Most new parties have been fragmented off existing parties already having inherited MPs.

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  5. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    I hope he makes it, if not this time then next. We need more social conservatives in Parliament.

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  6. SteveO (77 comments) says:

    David, it is possible the Conservative Party are not claiming to be ahead in Rodney. The exact quote is “The Conservative Party claims polling in the area shows Craig is ahead of his nearest rival.”

    This statement would be true if Craig in fifth place is polling closer to the candidate in sixth place than the one in fourth.

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  7. mikenmild (12,376 comments) says:

    SteveO
    From your ‘fifth place’ comment you seem sure Craig will do well!

    Last time out it was National, Labour, Green, ACT and NZ First for the top 5 spots in Rodney. My guess is Craig will be battling in the next tier down with the Maori Party, Mana, United Future and ALC candidates.

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  8. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Better get your arse out to Epsom Manolo ;)

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  9. jonno1 (82 comments) says:

    Hmm. I was part of the last Conservative Party poll in Epsom. Colin Craig has probably realised that he would take votes off John Banks rather than National’s candidate (whoever that is!). The poll questions were pretty basic, with only one open-ended one on critical policy issues. I still don’t understand why Craig opposes partial asset sales – maybe targeting the NZ First vote explains this, otherwise it makes no sense. I wish him well in Rodney (but I think SteveO has nailed it).

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  10. Pete George (23,798 comments) says:

    mikenmild – why separate ACT and NZ First into different tiers to the Maori Party, Mana, United Future? NZF is unlikely to get an electorate seat so will struggle to get in at all.

    They are all competing in the second tier unless you want to put National on it’s own, then Labour and Greens, then the rest. The Conservative Party will be struggling well down the field unless Craig can buy something unprecedented in Rodney.

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  11. KiwiGreg (3,278 comments) says:

    I hope he does super well, splits the vite with NZ First and neither of them get an electorate or 5% of the list vote.

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  12. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    Labour, National, the Greens, Act and the Maori Party were all political movements – with activist bases – before their respective parties were formed.

    The Conservative Party is a fabrication centred around a single leader, like NZ First and the Progressives. A flash in the pan, if ever there was one.

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  13. mikenmild (12,376 comments) says:

    Good point ephemera. Add United and Mana to that list too.

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  14. Pete George (23,798 comments) says:

    Add United and Mana to that list too.

    Why?

    Mana looks like it’s developing into a collective of activists and may have problems with conflicts of to many chiefs unless they can learn to co-exist with their various causes.

    United Future isn’t a “fabrication around a single leader”, it may be middle of the road and less glamorous than radicals and attention seekers but it’s pragamatic principles have a much bigger following than the pools suggest.

    John Key could easily be considered to be following UnitedFuture movement principles.

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  15. Mike Johnson (44 comments) says:

    This is a much more sensible decision, than standing in Epsom would have been. Standing in Epsom would only have benefited Labour.

    Oh what nonsense.

    You know very well David that his standing in Epsom would benefit the National candidate, whom you and your party wish not to win the seat.

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  16. mikenmild (12,376 comments) says:

    Just teasing you Pete.

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  17. BlairM (2,340 comments) says:

    I don’t know why he doesn’t just co-opt NZ First a-la-Brash. They seem to have the same policies, with a bit more Jesus and a bit less “gooks out”. They might stand a chance that way.

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  18. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    I have always liked NZFirst policy wise, it was Winston I could not take. A new leader post-election who turns NZFirst into a genuine nationalist-conservative party (which is what it was supposed to be before Winston decided to prop up the Clark regime) is a realistic possibility. This would be good for the country, and give National a better option than ACT to rely on.

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  19. RRM (10,099 comments) says:

    I’m confused.

    It’s utterly bloody reprehensible when the Labour party machine trucks in their darling candidate for (mana) electorate from out of town, but when the new Conservative Party leader chooses an electorate to stand in based on what works best for him, that’s completely different and it’s “a sensible decision”…??

    What’s the main difference?

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  20. David Garrett (7,700 comments) says:

    No-one has mentioned Bob Jones and the New Zealand Party..12% of the vote in 1984 in less time to organise than Craig has had…Didnt get them anywhere under FPP but under MMP a very different story.

    The crucial element missing of course is a “Muldoon”to rail against…instead of the most hated PM in modern times (Cripes, even I joined the Labour Party to get rid of him), Craig is up against the most popular.

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  21. Rodders (1,756 comments) says:

    Remember how good Bob Jones was at generating publicity (I recall an item on the TV news in 1984 when he asked a Labour Party heckler if he wanted a boxing match.) It doesn’t sound like Colin Craig’s style ;)

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  22. Rodders (1,756 comments) says:

    Lee01 says “I have always liked NZFirst policy wise”

    You like this sort of thing, then? http://www.scribd.com/doc/46758219/NZ-First-2003

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  23. Mike Johnson (44 comments) says:

    Remember how good Bob Jones was at generating publicity (I recall an item on the TV news in 1984 when he asked a Labour Party heckler if he wanted a boxing match.)

    And after the ’84 election, Jones unilaterally “closed” the NZ Party and went fishing at Turangi. Rod Vaughan of TVNZ hunted him out by the river for an interview, and Jones “boxed” him in the face, breaking Rod’s nose.

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  24. Rodders (1,756 comments) says:

    Mike – you can watch it again
    http://www.nzonscreen.com/title/eyewitness-news—bob-jones-punches-reporter-rod-vaughan-1985

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  25. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    Rodders,

    Yes.

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  26. Mike Johnson (44 comments) says:

    Thanks Rodders.

    Hilarious to see that again after all these years.

    Jones was quoted in the Herald next day as saying he wished he’d broken the cameraman’s nose too.

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  27. DJP6-25 (1,390 comments) says:

    Thanks Rodders.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  28. Viking2 (11,673 comments) says:

    Rodders (1,338) Says:
    September 19th, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    Remember how good Bob Jones was at generating publicity (I recall an item on the TV news in 1984 when he asked a Labour Party heckler if he wanted a boxing match.) It doesn’t sound like Colin Craig’s style ;)

    Not PC these days, you actually have to be a current MP to do that now.
    Where’s Trev? eh Where are ya Trev.

    Of course you can’t be a mere mortal like Whale either cause you don’t rank for a challenge.

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  29. aitkenmike (95 comments) says:

    @ Rodders – cheers, had never seen that before (I was 1 at the time!). I love the quote at the bottom of the synopsis – ‘When fined $1000, Jones asked the judge if he paid $2000, could he please do it again?’. Brilliant!

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