August Public Polls
September 6th, 2011 at 3:00 pm by David FarrarHave just published the Curia polling newsletter for August 2011. The summary page is:
Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 51, August 2011
August saw six political polls published – two Roy Morgan polls, a One News Colmar Brunton, a 3 News Reid Research, a NZ Herald Digipoll and a Fairfax Research International poll.
The average of the public polls has National 24% ahead of Labour and able to govern alone. The gap in July was 22%, so the gap widened in August, as it has for the last three months.
Australia may end up with a new Prime Minister before the next election. Julia Gillard’s approval rating has fallen 18% in one month to a net -45%.
In the United States Barack Obama is in freefall. His approval rating has dropped 12%, his handling of the economy by 10% and the right vs wrong direction for the country is down 14% to around the lowest point it was under George W Bush. Meanwhile Texas Governor Rick Perry has all the momentum for the Republican 2012 nomination.
In the UK the riots have had little change on the polls, with Labour 4% ahead of the Conservatives.
In Canada the Conservatives have lost 5% to the New Democratic Party. This is probably due to sympathy at the death of long-time NDP Leader Jack Layton.
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the Labour leadership, the Rugby World Cup, asset sales, KiwiSaver, law & order and the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.
Correspondence and feedback is also welcome to the same address.
And a graph from the newsletter:
There’s been a quite clear trend for the last three months, and Labour on the average of all polls is below 30% for the first time since 2009. Just over 11 weeks to turn the trend around.
Tags: Curia, Polls
September 6th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
Again, I’m bewildered that Labour has not been able to conjure up a strategy that closes the gap with National in the almost 3 years it has been on the opposition benches. They have people who have been in politics a long time. The economy has been limping for most of this period- a lot of households have lost ground compared to 3 years ago. This is fertile ground for an adept opposition party.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Chthoniid, I suspect the answer lies in your third to last word.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Labour’s problem is that they have been waiting for the public to come to their senses and realise that John Key is a lying, rich prick intent on selling their birthright to the highest (overseas) bidder.
That John Key is actually an amiable rich guy, with a nice family, who is politically cautious, slightly gauche, generally slightly conservative economically and above all non-ideological when it comes to most issues has escaped them. But it has not escaped the average voter.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
What is astonishing to me is that in the UK the Con/Lib coalition have been so incredibly inept as to somehow let what should have been a completely discredited Labour Party get back in front in the polls.
Cameron appears to be the most incompetent leader the Conservatives have had since sometime in the 19th Century; and they can’t even cut spending, their much ballyhooed “cuts” are simply a reduction in the rate of growth in spending.
Australia though, yes a probable PM change, but unless the Liberals get lucky and a Labour MP keels over in such a way that they can’t be taken via the taxidermist and propped up in their seat, then Labor will continue to be the “government” for the next 2 years despite their demonstrated incompetence.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
What’s that broad white stripe between the upper blue line and the lower red line?
Daylight.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
It is all about the back pocket for the average voter. If your country is in deep recession you generally get voted out.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Obama’s becoming oh, bummer. No wonder he’s becoming so unpopular. Just look at this attack on Gibson guitars:
http://blogs.ajc.com/bob-barr-blog/2011/08/31/gibson-guitar-to-uncle-sam-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Cfrom-my-cold-dead-hands%E2%80%9D
Vote:September 7th, 2011 at 1:00 am
Mike, so is Gillard. All is well.
Vote:September 7th, 2011 at 7:36 am
I am not of the camp that thinks National will govern alone. Once voters know National will win (Du-h) they will balance Nats with Act, Greens, give Labour some freebies or vote Maori party. Remember the shock emergence of United Future from no-where. The Polls simply will not reflect this; it’ll be an Election Week re-alignment.
Vote:September 7th, 2011 at 8:28 am
That gap between Labour and National represents small business owners and the entire aspirational class. Both groups Labour has no affinity with. The comfortable middle class who care about soft issues such as the environment and human rights issues are going to the Greens. Labour does not know how to handle that as well. And a fair chunk of Maori that used to vote Labour are with the Maori Party. Labour do not know how to handle that either. So they are angry and nasty and they flay about like a demented catherine wheel lurching from one issue to the next.
Vote:September 7th, 2011 at 9:27 am
@iMP
Hmm, maybe. But I think UF’s previous jump in fortunes last time was a product of an adept TV debate performance by Dunne, and a large pool of volatile, undecided voters.
I haven’t picked up a similar large pool of undecided this time in the polls. While there is a rise, my instinct is this is a product of dissatisfied Labour voters (Curran’s comments are germane here) thinking of switching to the Greens.
Vote:September 7th, 2011 at 9:36 am
I think there’s also a sizable pool of voters who sort of support National and don’t see a viable alternative in Labour but who will be reluctant to give too much power to National.
In 2002 UnitedFuture came in with 8 seats with a strong openly Christian component, this turned out to be unsuccessful, Dunne referred to it as a mistake for the party. This time they are putting together a range of candidates with strong regional and some specific issue focus – I think that gives UnitedFuture a better general appeal.
Vote:September 8th, 2011 at 10:09 am
Thank you, United Future candidate for Dunedin North. And it’d be nice for Dunedin Northites to have four MPs, but I cannot see it happening.
One word David. Horizon.
Vote: