The rise of the Greens
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:12 pm by David FarrarI’ve blogged at Stuff on The rise of the Greens. I conclude:
If the Greens do manage to get 10 per cent or more in the election, they will have an enhanced presence in Parliament that might push them to rise even higher than where they now are. I don’t believe they could ever supplant Labour as the major party of the Left, but I do think they could end up being a 10-15 per cent party, rather than a 5-7 per cent party.
Related posts:
- The rise and rise of Andrew Little
- Are the Greens now the astro-turfing party?
- The rise and fall of Nick Smith
- Greens get hard
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Cue comment from toad gloating about the polls and attacking Goff.
Indeed, Goff deserves scorn for this http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/168663/labour-opens-door-coalition-greens
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:17 pm
G*d help us.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Greens have done a reasonable job in rejuvenating themselves over the last few years. I certainly don’t like there politics but Labour could learn a thing or two from them.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:28 pm
I’m surprised how well Greens have rebuilt too, and they look far more assured and competent than one or two close allies. But like sthn.jeff I couldn’t support many of their policies, full of ideals and lacking in practical application (maybe they never expect to apply many of them).
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:35 pm
@Rodders 12:16 pm
Not high enough to gloat yet, Rodders. Might start that if it gets above 15% and holds up at the election itself.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:39 pm
At least they’re not stealing votes from the right!
1000 comments!
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:42 pm
It is great seeing the Greens canabalise Labour. But the possibility of a Labour-Green coalition (or, more specifically, Labour-Green-Mana-Peters Coalition of the Weird) also means pushing moderate voters towards National.
One day we’ll see a Labour-Green or a Green-Labour coalition. It’ll be thoroughly discredited within months, like the Gillard government has been with the policies required to keep only one Green MP in their coalition. And it will only last three years.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:46 pm
“The Rise of the Greens” sounds like a rather bad sci-fi movie where a petrie dish experiment has gone horribly wrong
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Lance – I had wondered if it was referring to what happens when I put too much water in the saucepan.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Catch 22 for the Greens really. The higher they poll the less likely they are to be in Govt/have any real power. Makes for good ribbing to my Green-voting sibling though.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Sheeple.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 1:17 pm
“”I’d anticipate in the Labour-led government that the leaders of the Green Party, which would be a coalition partner, would have ministerial positions,” he told reporters. I think it’s premature to start talking about what positions those may be.”
Yes, talking about the 2024 government make-up is a little premature…..
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 1:39 pm
gazzmaniac – I voted National last time, the time before that and Act before that. I am likely to vote Green this election.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Currently I’m going towards voting Greens this time after voting for the Nats or Act the last 4 times. I don’t agree with all their policies, but that can be said about the other parties just as much if not more. That the Greens have shed some of their more extreme members to Mana helps somewhat, as has their agreement with the Nats last time around – compromise to secure some decent policy advances is a win in my book – hopefully they can do it again.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 1:53 pm
The latest Herald Digipoll had the Greens at almost 10%. Why?
They haven’t released any significant policy. They hardly feature in the media. The campaign has barely begun. Their list is barely interesting. They’re not really in the news. So why has their vote almost doubled to a point it has not been at before?
There can only be one reason – these voters are left voters but cannot vote for Labour in its present form. They probably don’t like Goff, and are veering toward the more principled, policy-driven party of the Left. So they are choosing Green as a “protest” vote.
The polls generally have Labour at 30%, yet Goff at about 6-8%. So only about 1 in 3 Labour voters are choosing Goff as their preferred prime minister.
Act is not capturing the same disillusioned vote on the right because John Key is popular. MMP elections are as much about the leader as anything else; this presents a problem for Act.
I guess the critical thing is this: Voters on the Left are seeing a Labour Party that is not doing very well, and which has an unpopular leader. Voters on the Right see a National Party that is doing okay and which has a popular leader. They might be disappointed, but not enough to change their vote.
A weak Labour Party presents a danger for Act. If the polling was closer between the two major parties, a vote for Act would have much more impact. But as it stands, that’s not the case.
I’m not concerned about the Greens getting to 10%, or even 15%. That’s because they’ll be in opposition so in a sense the number of seats they have is irrelevant. Labour will go feral on them soon, just wait for that. I pick about 2-3 weeks out from the election, when the RWC is over and people are paying attention.
The Greens will be lucky to get 7% come 26 November.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 2:42 pm
@gazzmaniac 12:39 pm
Watch this space!
@Nick K 1:53 pm
Shipley tried that in 1999, and it backfired badly. In fact it was what got the Greens, who had been polling only around 2%, into Parliament in the first place.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 2:50 pm
The Rise of the Greens versus the Boag Collective (resistance is futile)
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 3:02 pm
The Greens have the best brand in politics.
I’m not sure how you’d screw up marketing ‘Clean & Green’. Yet the Greens manage to by having their ranks stacked with half-baked moonbats.
It’s to the credit of the New Zealand electorate that they recognise this – which solves the mystery why they poll so low.
However now that the Greens have ditched the dude with the dreadlocks & the toxic Sue Bradford, they’re making moves to appear more creditable.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 3:21 pm
@NX
Ditching Nandor and Sue is one thing but how is Keith Locke not dragging them to the bottom? Do that many kiwis really buy into his politics?
I could almost stand Russell Norman and I had some respect for Jeanette Fiztsimons (?) and Rod Donald focusing on the environment but I’d be totally surprised if Locke’s trojan ride into parliament wasn’t actually costing them votes.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Cobolt wrote:
Well, he is.
How else would you explain why a party with the most marketable brand in politics, ‘Clean & Green’, are polling between 5 and 10%?
Seriously in 2011 everyone wants to be clean & green – everyone is an environmentalist to some extent. The only reason why they aren’t creaming it in the opinion polls is because people view them as nuts & watermelons.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Locke is retiring this election so it’s somewhat moot, unfortunately Delahunty is still around and she’s just as moon batty as Bradford.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Weihana, lefttyliberal and Toad –
Vote:I suggest you’re very much in the minority in suggesting that people from the right will vote Green. I have absolutely no evidence to back that up, apart from my opinion that people who vote for National/Act vote for them for (amongst other reasons) their taxation and size of government policies. They would have to have a pretty substantial change of political persuasion to consider voting for the Greens. That is generally not the case for people who vote for Labour.
September 2nd, 2011 at 4:12 pm
It seems rather silly for those on the right to talk about what the Greens need to do to get more votes. Most on the right would never consider voting for them anyway so it’s kinda like saying “If only the Greens were more like John Key then I might consider voting for them” but of course then they wouldn’t be “the Greens” if it was like that. Locke, Nandor, Bradford et. al represent the kind of ideas they stand for, for better or worse.
If I wanted to vote for a libertarian party, for instance, I wouldn’t expect it to be more like National and Labour in order to get more votes because that would destroy what the party is about.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 4:17 pm
It would be interesting to see what the Greens would do if their vote rose substantially. To gain power, they would presumably need to broaden their appeal. Just as Labour couldn’t get anywhere by simply promoting the interests of workers and National couldn’t get anywhere by only promoting the interests of farmers and business owners.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 4:31 pm
gazzmaniac – I wouldn’t be surprised if most of those who switched to Green are from Labour, rather than from National or Act.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Weihana (321) Says:
September 2nd, 2011 at 1:39 pm
I voted National last time, the time before that and Act before that. I am likely to vote Green this election.
You may wish to go get yourself checked. As an armchair psychologist I am diagnosing you with tripolar disorder.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Courage Wolf,
lol.
I cannot bring myself to vote for the party that gave us Simon Power. I am also sick and tired of the war on drugs and the Greens are the only party that are advocating it be treated as a health issue. Their economic policies are not too bad though I might be more concerned if there was the possibility that they would govern alone, but of course that’s not going to happen.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 4:55 pm
the Greens have a major problem that is similar to Labour .. a serious lack of talent. Those thinking of voting Green need to look at the MP’s now and ask themselves .. If that lot are the best they can do, what on earth are those further down the chain like.
Vote:Add in Harawira and any of his mob that may get in and bloody hell.
September 2nd, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Weihana – “I am likely to vote Green this election.”
I am passionate about the environment, but I believe the Green Party is more interested in left wing social policy, than they are in implementing rational and realistic measures to protect the environment.
On what basis would you choose to vote for them?
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Weihana – I believe that it is ACT’s policy to legalise cannibis.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 5:15 pm
gazzmaniac – well I just had a quick look and I can’t find that policy on their website. They used to be a liberal party but it seems that they have since become a conservative law and order party.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Scott Chris – I’m not particularly concerned about climate change, but there seems to be a general consensus amongst most politicians for taxation and regulation to combat climate change so I don’t think it makes much of a difference voting Green in that respect.
On the other hand I support research and development for green technology regardless of climate change.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 5:35 pm
That would be very foolish. Since Labour would need the Greens to govern (even if Labour rose an unlikely 10% in the polls) it would only demostrate that Labour would be unable to form a stable government. Remember 2002: when Labour and the Greens fell out both got punished.
Vote:This is not to say Labour won’t “go feral”. It may be that by that time they are just desperate to save their own jobs, rather than actually win power, and it will become a free-for-all brawl on the Left for the election leftovers.
September 2nd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
@gazzmaniac 3:55 pm
What you don’t get is that not everyone who voted National at the last election, or are indicating they will do so at this one, is “from the right”.
I doubt hardly anyone “from the right” will ever vote Green.
But National currently has support from lots of voters who used to be Labour voters. They are not right wingers, and some of them will not be all that happy with National’s “drill, dig, and pray” energy policy, nor with the privatisation of our energy SOEs, nor with the failure of the Government to have a credible plan to reduce unemployment.
In the absence of credible leadership from Labour, and in the circumstance of Labour providing little more than recycled or watered down Green policy, I see potential for a good number of those voters to come across to the Greens.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 5:49 pm
The good thing about the Greens is there will be a tipping point at which they actually get into power and once that happens for three years, their popularity will foreverafter plummet to near zero as voters see what they [don't] generate in terms of rubber on the road actual genuine improvements in something important.
We all know it will happen. The only people who don’t are the Greens and their idiot supporters.
The only way I would ever even consider voting for them is if they declared white males were a persecuted minority and proposed a special ministry and lots of campaign and govt attention on white men’s rights as wonderful human beings and they promised to pay careful attention to our views which, to them, naturally are fantastic on every single thing since we’re a persecuted minority.
I might write a letter to Wussell. He’s a white male.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
We’ve been here before – the Greens polling around 10% and the same rush to the head commentary about the Greens being the new left leaning opposition party. The Greens are hoping for a Nats under English style Goff/Labour implosion. They may get it. The difference is that in 2002, United Future (who I voted for – party vote at least) represented a sane centrist coalition partner to Labour and so a centre right voter could abandon National and still have some influence over Labour. I have no doubt that Labour would’ve liberalised NZ’s drug laws but for Dunn making this a no go area as one of the prices Labour had to pay to have UF in their coalition.
A disgruntled Labour voter does not have that same option with the Greens because they are ideologically to the left of Labour. Voting for the Greens (or Mana for that matter) means no change to the centre left vote. The Greens, whilst less hostile to National than before, admit the truth and that is that it is highly unlikely that they’ll ever be in government with the Nats. That’s not to say that Key doesnt do another odd one off deal with the Greens like he did with the 2008 house insulation programme.
Because voter turnout is always a slightly more difficult task for Labour than National, I’m picking disgruntled and disheartened Labour voters not of a mind to vote for Goff but not left wing or tree hugger enough for the Greens will just stay home.
All this said I’m picking that the Greens vote in NOvember will be the highest ever – I just think that 15% is unrealistic baring a complete Labour collapse.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
UM, just look across the ditch and see the unprincipled behavoir that the Greens get up to. Supporting a bankrupt Labour Party in their lust for power.
Vote:Want that here?
September 2nd, 2011 at 6:24 pm
and somewhere in the background is the sound of Sue Bradford throwing up
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Are the new Green voters younger than the general Labour supporter profile?
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 6:41 pm
“I have no doubt that Labour would’ve liberalised NZ’s drug laws but for Dunn making this a no go area as one of the prices Labour had to pay to have UF in their coalition.”
I doubt it. IIRC about half of them (or more) voted against medical marijuana and that was a conscience vote.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 6:49 pm
All this said I’m picking that the Greens vote in NOvember will be the highest ever – I just think that 15% is unrealistic baring a complete Labour collapse.
Agree KIA.
Kennedy Graham is impressive in the House and he has real promise, the others are all simply a waste of space. What I really hate about idealists that I’m forced to pay for is that they’re not only completely wrong almost 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time, they refuse to listen to counter arguments. My working hypothesis is this is because their heart is vewy sensitive and there’s a thweshold over which things get very mental indeed and that’s when the Gween ideology kicks in and it’s all over, rover.
Normal people are left far behind once the idealism cawwies them away. What’s disturbing me at the mo is the Malcolm-Hughes-Campbell factor, the “educated” twendies. They are very powerful players in this, their particular mentalness appawently has no bounds.
I’m vewy fwightened.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 7:49 pm
National Voters voting Green?
I know of conservative philosophical leaning people, often mature, female, becoming disenchanted with confrontational right vs left debate who seek peace in the Green party warm fuzzies.
When challenged on the moonbat outcomes that platform would create, minimise it by cloaking themselves in the cosy green blanket and forget anything that will not impact directly on their immediate future.
It is called DENIAL.
Vote:September 2nd, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Surely there are only 2 possible reasons anyone might ever have for voting watermelon; 1 being you’re a complete moonbat lunatic and the other being you like the sound of “clean and green” but have taken absolutely no time to research any of the Greens’ policies (which are moonbattery and lunacy)? I cannot fathom how anybody in their right mind could ever, under any circumstances, vote for this pack of unreconstituted fuckwits.
Vote:September 3rd, 2011 at 8:30 am
Christ, if they ever did become the main party of leftards, we’d actually miss labour
Vote:September 3rd, 2011 at 9:44 am
The worst government in Australia’s history has rooted everything it’s touched, including a refugee swap deal with Malaysia (ruled unlawful by the Aussie High Court). Yesterday at work here in Melbourne I hammered out a NZ/AUS refugee swap deal. We’re giving Wed Wussell back to them, but it means we have to take back the other Russell (Crowe). Sorry ’bout that, but I still think we got the good end of the deal.
Vote:September 3rd, 2011 at 3:43 pm
The greens seem to be making inroads in two areas. First a very weak labour leadership is leaking votes to them. The second fertile area appears to be the youth vote. A breakdown of the polling stats would be interesting.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 8:25 am
“Opponents of the legislation say the battle over the foreshore is not over with a promise from the Greens that it won’t let the foreshore and seabed issue die as it heads into the election campaign.
Greens co-leader Metiria Turei says the Maori Party has betrayed its supporters.
“I’m very distressed about this, this should not have happened,” she says. “The Maori Party had the power to fix the 2004 legislation, to repeal it and to put in place a just outcome, and they chose not to.”
Ms Turei is furious at the Maori Party.
“We should repeal the racist law and restore access to the courts and genuine justice,” she says. “We’ll continue to hold the Maori Party to account for their role in allowing this legislation to pass.”
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyid=193090
Greens tautoko foreshore hikoi
Wednesday, 16 March 2011, 11:30 am
Press Release: Green Party
“John Key’s Government’s proposal is essentially the same as the Labour regime and fundamentally undermines Maori rights,” said Mrs Turei.
“While, of course, public access to beaches should be maintained, this does not mean that Maori should be singled out to have their legal rights removed.
“Our position has always been that Maori should have the right to go to Court to have their customary rights confirmed. We do not believe it is fair or right for Maori customary rights to be unilaterally extinguished by legislation.
“Our amendment to restore the ability of Courts to confirm Maori customary rights and title will be considered in Parliament today,” said Mrs Turei.
“This bill is unfair as it does nothing to change the status of the 12,500 existing private titles [including Maori] in the foreshore and seabed. This creates a double standard which treats Māori rights as inferior.
“Nothing in this bill will stop owners of private title stopping access or selling the foreshore into foreign ownership,” said Mrs Turei.
For more information:
Vote:Green Party Amendment metiria_turei_sop_on_marine_and_coastal_areas_takutai_moana_bill.pdf
ENDS