Will cannabis propel Goff to power?
September 30th, 2011 at 1:56 pm by David FarrarMy column at the NZ Herald is titled Will cannabis propel Goff to power? An extract:
Even if Labour gets a worse result than they did in 2008, and even if National gets a better result than they did in 2008, the country may end up with Prime Minister Phil Goff. …
The interesting thing with this scenario is that National/ACT would have secured more votes than the Goff Government. National/ACT could get 49% and Labour/Green/NZ First/Maori/Mana 48% in total. But the over-hang for the Maori seats would deliver power to the parties that got fewer votes. Any protests would be futile, as the MMP referendum would have just concluded, probably confirming MMP.
The column focuses on the dangers for National if it has no coalition partners beyond one MP parties.
Related posts:
- Roughan on Goff
- Goff fibs on power prices
- Goff instructs Maori Party to support him
- Maori Labour voters want Goff gone
September 30th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
There is a new team of resourceful and talented people behind Peter at this election. That UnitedFuture is a one-man band this term doesn’t predict that will be the case after the election. UnitedFuture started off as a one man band in 1999. Since then it has had up to eight MP’s in parliament. It is one of only three parties that will have retained an MP from the 1999 election. All the 99 greens are out; ACT has just retired it’s whole caucus. There is more experience within Peter’s office than either of these two parties. Progressive never got a hold in the same way UF has done at times so you can’t make any comparison there.
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Vote:Peter is still young (well, youngish
Peter has done well to pass the plentiful ranches of legislation that has come through his office on his efforts alone. Can you say the same for WP?
You say one man band, some of us see a star in the ascendent.
Aye Pete George.
September 30th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
So MMP is as bad as FPP in that 2 parties can get more votes than 6 parties and lose.
Think Ill stick to voting for FPP. The lesser of 2 evils
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
ANNNNND under MMP smaller parties get disproportionate power, even decide Gummint. So much for proportionality.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Even a Saturn V rocket shoved up his arse couldn’t propel the fuckwit Goff to power.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
I agree Monique but we have to demonstrate that and get media and voters to see it, that’s our wee challenge. Some are trying to ignore us (some deliberately) but I think people are starting to see it as the sanest option for support and balance.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Goff is stiff dead, metaphorically speaking, with the invitations for the funeral being handed out the evening of the election. Until then we have to live with the stench of his political corpse.
Good riddance.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Very sad for ACT’s fate to rest in the hands of someone who doesn’t share its core principles.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
The problem is Manolo, he’ll probably exit rapidly after the election but there’s others more deserving – I doubt if he’ll take any dead wood with him, they’ll all be too busy clubbing themselves at our expense.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
I don’t buy the argument that MMP helps the fragmented left. When people get sick of a govt they will vote them out MMP or otherwise. I think the lack of right-wing minor parties will just mean that National is more likely to govern alone, as we are seeing this election.
DPF’s scenario hinges on Maori voters rorting MMP by giving their electorate vote to the Maori party and their party vote to someone else. Then the Maori party gets more seats than they are entitled to under the party vote. So we get an overhang–more than 120 MPs.
This ability to manipulate the system through overhangs is the second dumbest thing about MMP. The dumbest thing is that the number of electorates is steadily increasing. We will probably have 120 electorates by the end of the century if we stick with the current system.
What’s the magic formula for determining the number of electorates? There are 16 general electorates in the south island and the number of other electorates is adjusted to make them about the same size. (So the Christchurch earthquake probably will give us an extra electorate.) At the next census we’ll probably see an extra half dozen electorates.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
National won’t govern alone. If you look at 2002, 2005 and 2008 about 13% of the vote goes wandering, regardless if the environment is similar to now (2002) or it’s a “vote for change” election (2008). About 7% sits with the Greens and the “really anti” vote is 2%. The rest of the vote is from levelheads who are sick of the extremes of left and right and want a voice that represents the interests of the average Joe or Monique. Winston sucked ‘em in big time under this guise.
Vote:M
September 30th, 2011 at 5:18 pm
I like these tenuous stories where a seemingly innocuous event is the trigger point for a cascade of events resulting in some scenario of vastly more impact than the original event.
Butterfly flaps its wings and causes a thunderstorm in china kind of thing.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
I remember saying way back that Labour are not out of the race. I even said on Redablurt that the Nats could be taken down by their coalition partners. This could still happen.
Vote:The thought of a Labour lead Govt gives me the screaming shits and the likelihood of it happening is slim .. but
September 30th, 2011 at 5:25 pm
and regarding cannabis, I note that Goff did a HClark reply about using it .. “well I was a student in the 70′s”. Just say yes you moron
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 5:59 pm
# lastmanstanding (578) Says:
September 30th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
So MMP is as bad as FPP in that 2 parties can get more votes than 6 parties and lose.
Think Ill stick to voting for FPP. The lesser of 2 evils
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To be fair MMP is a mixture of FPP and proportional representation and it is the FPP part which enables such a scenario. Also the Maori seats would still exist under FPP enabling the Maori Party to hold a balance of power in a close election. Not a bad thing in my view, but it’s still possible that small parties could have significant influence on government.
Personally I don’t see the problem with this. We shouldn’t have a system where 51% can ride roughshod over everyone else. I like it that the major parties have to negotiate with the minor ones. I don’t agree that MMP gives them more influence than they deserve. Coalitions are a partnership and the dominant partner still gets the most influence in government.
Furthermore, the basis of democracy is representation and it’s clear that FPP simply doesn’t provide adequate representation to minorities thus grossly undermining Parliament’s ability to accurately reflect the diverse views of New Zealand society.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
I like it that the major parties have to negotiate with the minor ones. I don’t agree that MMP gives them more influence than they deserve. Coalitions are a partnership and the dominant partner still gets the most influence in government.
They pretty much sums up my views too.
I think those that want FPP back would only be happy with it if their favoured minority party rulws the roost alone, and then only when that party does everything they want. That sort of power seeker will probably never be satisfied.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 8:15 pm
I’m surprised no one has commented on the Monique and Pete pat-on-each-others-backs / shilling love fest for the party that won’t see any more than 1 MP in the next election.
Oh and BTW DPF, the term you wanted in your post the other day was “shill” not “astroturfer”
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
I also have to point out that Monique trotted out almost exactly the same load of crap here that she did on the Herald post.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Ah yes, here she is http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/monique-watson-wellington-central/
No different from the Greens then. You’d better start reporting how UF “astroturf” as well now DPF
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 8:27 pm
Interesting to hear your certainty chris. What are your predictions for the other parties?
Are you a Green supporter? Why do some Greenies worry so much about UF I wonder.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 8:28 pm
UK General Election 2005. First past the post.
Labour 37%,
Conservatives 35%,
Liberal Democrats 19%
Others 9%
Seats:
Labour 355 MPs
Conservatives 197
LD 62
Others 32.
Yeah, that’s a system to emulate.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Nice fairytale David. I note that Act’s vote as predicted by iPredict has been very volatile and at one stage after Don’s supposedly fatal gaffe was over 5%. It is now just over 3% which is probably about what it will get come election night.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
I don’t have any predictions other than what I see in the polls. Take a look at the polls Pete, just how well are UF doing? For most people UF is nothing more than the Peter Dunne party. And who wants to vote for someone who will go with whoever gets in power? Better to just vote for Labour or National and get some certainty in your vote. It’s surely the only reason the Nats are polling so high.
With one exception, when I voted in my first election at the age of 19 for the wrong party for the wrong reasons, I’ve always voted either ACT or National. So no, I’m not a Green supporter. And while they’re a bunch of luddite socialists I never could be. I doubt I’d vote for them even if they weren’t. I would vote for the ACT party of old but they seem to have lost their way.
And no, I don’t “worry” about UF at all. The only election they got a decent number of seats was for the same reason the Greens will this time; in 2002 UF did well because National did poorly – in 2011 the Greens will do well because Labour will do poorly.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Monique, very well said.
You too DPF. Very well written column.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:30 pm
Chris, in 2002 a number of parties did well when National did poorly – Act, NZF, UnitedFuture. Most of that support swung in the last two weeks of the campaign. It’s very difficult to predict what will happen in the next eight weeks, there’s a lot of soft vote out there. If you look at history Green support has tended to weaken compared to polls.
Anthony – all the small parties are very volatile on ipredict. Greens ranged from 7.8 to 11.8 in the last week. There’s a lot of political positioning, or attempts at it.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:44 pm
So UF went from something like 8 seats to 2 seats to 1 seat, and you think there’s suddenly going to be a resurgence for a party that most people think of as the Peter Dunne Party? I wish you all the best in your campaign Pete, but I don’t see it happening.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:53 pm
It’s happened before Chris – and if it happens again this year it may well be National’s saviour. Once people start to figure that one out it could get interesting.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 9:58 pm
The voters still have not got mmp Two votes give you the chance to vote for Nats in electorate and use your party vote to tilt them in the direction you desire. More liberal free market vote act, more fundie conservative vote cccp, and more ? UF.
Vote:September 30th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Hey. Hey. It’s not the same load of crap at all. it’s a different load of crap. The good kind. Both comments.
I don’t think it’s astro-turfing if you front up using your own name. Actuooally.
Vote:I also think when you repeatedly mention you’re a candidate across posts (like I do) that also makes it obvious that you’re: well – a candidate. I agree my comments should be viewed in that light. As for love fest. I’ve got five kids and a political path to carve out. No time for luuurve. Mind you that previous post @9.58pm that ends …and more? UF. is kind of sexy.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
Monique Watson
Ma’am That was a question
Were are UF positioned as a party?
How do you see UFs position?
Shit I handed you a question and all I got was Felis concolor chirps and whistles.
Vote:October 1st, 2011 at 6:38 am
I reiterate what Monique said – we’re up front about who we are and what we stand for. Martin Gibson is one of us as well. We’ll support each other – except when we disagree, which has happened here. We’re independently minded individuals with a common cause.
Were are UF positioned as a party?
I see UnitedFuture positioning in three main ways.
1. The Peter Dunne part of UnitedFuture is already positioned as a very likely reliable continued contributor to the next government.
The revitalised rest of the party is postioning in two additional ways:
2. If UF were to get say half a dozen seats they would be in a strong position to moderate tugs from a dysfunctional Act should they get more than a seat or two, and will provide a moderate balance of power to National – there’s a restistance to giving National total control on their own, they haven’t earned that much.
3. The new UF candidates are in a position to represent a diverse constituency being passionate representatives of their regions and/or special interests – ordinary people working with the people, for the people. Parliament would benefit from a good dollop of the real world.
Vote:October 1st, 2011 at 9:34 am
Maybe, but how much would he have to smoke?
Vote:October 1st, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Most of the talk around the polls for a long time has been about how one sided they are, it may be that this affects turnout differently for the left and right , depending how demoralised/overconfident they get.
Vote:A lot of attention is going on rugby at the moment, there is a reasonably short time after the RWC to get non-politicos excited about showing up to the booths.