A path out of debt

October 25th, 2011 at 5:01 pm by David Farrar

Over at Stuff I blog on how the released today does show a path out of . An extract:

Today the Government opened the books. It is required to do this by law. The law was introduced in the early 1990s after the outgoing Labour government hid the true state of the crown accounts, and the fact that the then government-owned Bank of New Zealand needed a bailout. The incoming government received a shock when it realised the true state of the books.

This law showed its worth in 2008. The Budget in June 2008 painted a rosy picture of economic growth and ongoing surpluses.  However, by October it was a different picture. We learned in the 2008 Pre-Election Fiscal and Update (Prefu) that in fact the economy had been in recession all year, and that the ongoing surpluses had been replaced with a decade of deficits.

The news got even worse two months later when Treasury did its December Economic Forecast Update (Defu). The decade of deficits had become a structural deficit that would have seen New Zealand ending up in a similar situation to Greece if no changes were made. Gross crown debt as a percentage of the economy was forecast to hit 57 per cent in 2023, or if the global economy continued to worsen, possibly as high as 76 per cent. At that stage you are like Greece, and the interest on the debt is so high that massive cuts in spending on welfare, health and education are necessary to be able to make the interest payments. …

 If there is no change of fiscal policies, then the Government is still forecast to achieve a surplus again in the 2014-15 fiscal year, which should also be the year when net debt peaks at 29 per cent of GDP. It’s a much better outlook than three years ago.

There’s also some interesting on how our trade with the US and China has changed over the last decade.

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55 Responses to “A path out of debt”

  1. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    (going on the recent record of predictions from treasury…how can you believe a word they say..?..

    ..just back in june they said the deficit would be $8 billion…they were only wrong by 100%..

    ..a few months later it is $16 billion..

    ..what overpaid fucken clowns they are..)

    http://whoar.co.nz/2011/commentwhoar-wanna-pig-in-a-poke-treasury-release-their-economic-predictions-today/

    and the only question really is…how wrong will those predictions be…?

    just back in june..treasury predicted an $8 billion deficit for this year..

    ..as it turns out..just a few short months later…

    ..the actual deficit is actually $16 billion…(!)

    ..so they were 100% wrong…?

    ..but they still have a long way to go to reach their apogee from reality..

    ..that moment came just before the last election..

    ..when treasury (hilariously..as it turns out..) predicted the global economic crisis would be ‘all over’ by early the following year…2009..

    ..(that worked out well for them/us..eh..?..)

    …these clowns get paid eye-watering amounts of money..

    ..to consistantly make predictions that are eye-wateringly wrong..

    ..why the hell should we believe a word they/treasury say…?

    ..let alone base any decisions on what they predict..?

    ..when their track-record shows them to be 100% wrong wrong wrong..

    ..all the time…

    ..why don’t they just throw a dart at a dart board…?

    ..pure luck could likely make them more accurate…

    ..(and what bemuses me…is that these clowns are never called to account for their blinding errors..

    ..they just come out all po-faced…

    ..and expect us to forget the product of their most recent fevered imaginations..

    ..(ed:..idjits..!..eh..?..)

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  2. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Starter for ten …

    What on earth has this got to do with a parasitic worm who spends all day on the couch and has not ever, in his entire life of 50+ years, done anything to contribute to society, and has in fact, been a dead weight cost on the society that he leeches on?

    No prizes will be awarded. The answer is simply too easy.

    [DPF: Demerits next time. Don’t attack the person]

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  3. scrubone (3,097 comments) says:

    Soooo…. apparently because treasury aren’t perfectly predicting the future we should sack them?

    Um, that seems a little harsh.

    One assumes all those who *are* able to perfectly predict the future aren’t in the job market at all, having long since won lotto or something.

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  4. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    and of course treasury are now just serving up more of the same supporting key/national bullshit/lies…that they did last election..

    ‘cos their fantasy-driven claim the recession wd b over in early ’09..the sub-text of that was that we could afford the tax-cuts for the rich promised by key/nats…

    ..helped key win the election..

    ..whereas the exact opposite was true..on all fronts…

    ..and now they are doing it again..

    yes there is a paragraph where they paint a possible worse scenario..(about 20% chance of..another ‘figure’/prediction’..eh..?..)

    ..but in the main..the subtext here is that key/national ‘have got it right’…

    …which as we all know..is absolute horseshit…

    ..and i’d put their ‘20%’-chance’ of the bad scenario…up to about 75-80%..eh..?

    ..basically treasury are making the case themselves..going on both their record and current pronouncements..

    ..that they are ideologically-driven..

    ..and are largely a handmaiden of the right..

    ..spinning the figures to try to help key/nact..

    ..that much is clear..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  5. Johnboy (17,028 comments) says:

    Oi fink dat Liarbours proposed budget, wot will see us all living a life of luxury by 2014, should take the GST orf of frozen wedge as well as fresh.

    Yuh can’t expect the parasitic worms wot support the left to have the energy to peel fresh wedgies, after suffering under the jackboot of the rich pricks for three years, can yuh now ? :)

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  6. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..apparently because treasury aren’t perfectly predicting the future we should sack them?

    Um, that seems a little harsh…”

    scrubone…they said the recession wd be over early in ’09..

    ..back in june they said the deficit wd be $8 billion….

    ..four months later it is $16 billion…(!)

    ..how the fuck do you get something wrong by $8 billion dollars..?…

    ..how much more innacurate wd yu still be comfortable with there..scrubone..?

    ..and you believe them now..?

    ..wanna buy a bridge..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  7. Nick K (1,259 comments) says:

    There are a lot of *ifs* here, which gives the Nats a nice little “out” in 2014, just before the next election, which they will use because as Phil says, Treasury and virtually all economists have got GDP and forecasting completely wrong over the recent past. If we are in surplus in 2014-15 then I’ll offer myself to be put on the wrong side of a French ruck without goggles.

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  8. Johnboy (17,028 comments) says:

    Probably a bloody earthquake had something to do with it.

    Dumb Treasury pricks can’t predict earthquakes. Tossers!

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  9. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    WARNING: CHEMICAL HAZARD

    HERE LIES PHIL ‘MAGPIE’ URE

    HE DID FUCK ALL
    HE KNEW FUCK ALL
    HE WAS LESS THAN FUCK ALL
    HE COULDN’T COUNT VERY WELL EITHER

    MISSED BY NOBODY

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  10. Johnboy (17,028 comments) says:

    You mean Paula’s missed him Leonardo?

    Fuck it that must be why he is back here! :)

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  11. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    johnboy…the $8 billion ‘wrong’ was issued in june…

    ..this was post-earthquake…

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  12. Johnboy (17,028 comments) says:

    The costs are still coming in phil.

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  13. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    BTW, the post was on topic – it addressed his arithmetic :P

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  14. Johnboy (17,028 comments) says:

    Thought he could always count how many joints in an ounce? :)

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  15. Viking2 (11,672 comments) says:

    UMM, have to say I support Philu here. Treasury has an abysmal record of predicting anything. Problem is that no one seriously back checks their predictions. They are worse than the weather people where no-one looks back and actually charts predictions versus actual.
    Now johnboy you will understand the weather men are mostly wrong and Treasury is no better.

    The Reserve bank is just as bad.
    Roger Dickens has been running a critique of why they are wrong all the time and why NZer’s pay so dearly for their poor forecasting.

    You can go here and read what he has to say by browsing his site and finding the relevant newsletters.
    http://www.sra.co.nz/

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  16. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    V2

    You are quite correct.

    You do support Phliu.

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  17. Psycho Milt (2,423 comments) says:

    The law was introduced in the early 1990s after the outgoing Labour government hid the true state of the crown accounts…

    Something they learned from the previous outgoing National govt.

    Given the ludicrously over-optimistic forecasts Treasury and the Finance Minister are offering, it looks like Labour was correct in 2008 about the decade of deficits. Which just goes to show exactly how much changing between National and Labour really changes anything.

    [DPF: Actually the Treasury forecasts are pretty much in the middle of the range of private sector forecasts.]

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  18. berend (1,690 comments) says:

    What times are we in if we have to agree with philu.

    But repeat after me you Nat supporters: “if would be worse if Labour was in power.”

    Yeah, we might just be 2 billion in debt.

    What a farce this brighter future is. And how completely utterly hopeless must the opposition be if you can put up that slogan after a credit downgrade.

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  19. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    “Something they learned from the previous outgoing National govt.”

    Yes, RD Muldoon, aka Rob the Goblin, closet pinko and non closet meglamaniac; trojan horse for “sensible centre left policies”. Timed just before his career ‘treading the boards’. “The public wouldn’t know a deficit if it tripped over one”. Early pioneer of Klerkula’s fiscal policy.

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  20. Bob (445 comments) says:

    What you say about the economy in 2008 can’t be right. We have it on good authority from Phil himself that Labour managed the economy well. John Key has been riding on Labour’s coat tails.

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  21. Richard (23 comments) says:

    PREFU – before you fuck up.

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  22. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    You can’t have it both ways.

    You can’t expect 4% wages growth next year (as Treasury predict) and still get productivity growth.

    You certainly can’t cut government expenditure and expect the economy (and your tax receipts) not to be affected. To more you cut the lower the GDP, the less you end up in tax receipts.

    We have a $18.5B govt deficit and half our GDP is governement related. What do you think is going to happen?

    If you base your predictions on Treasury you are bound to end up looking stupid.

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  23. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..We have it on good authority from Phil himself that Labour managed the economy well…”

    well bob..whatever the criticisms of cullen..and i have many…

    ..it is an irrefutable fact that cullen paid down govt debt..and handed key/english a govt in surplus..

    (despite national/key mewling from the sidelines for tax-cuts instead..

    ..yet more ‘economic-literacy’ from national…eh..?)

    ..in just three years they have managed to piss that surplus up against the wall..

    ..and go even further and drive us into horrendous levels of debt..once again..for tax cuts for the elites/1%..

    (i mean..aren’t you fucken conservatives meant to think you are fucken economically-literate…?

    ..what the fuck is literate about what key and english have done to this country/economy…

    ,..and their ‘plan’..?

    ..is to continue borrowing for their gravy-train/tax-cuts..

    ..and to flog off our communal assets to their mates in the 1%…

    ..(i don’t buy that scary-foreign owner meme..eh..?..our 1% are perfectly venal/greedy enough to snatch up our communal assets..

    ..assets paid for/built-up by the rest of us..and over generations..

    ..and then rob/screw us blind on energy-prices…forever..)

    ..gee…!..that’d be also so ‘economically-literate’ of us all..eh..?

    ..to buy that puppy…

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  24. Bogusnews (414 comments) says:

    It certainly shows that we got rid of Labour without a minute to spare. Had they have continued their disastrous policies then goodness only knows where we would have ended up. There were several key issues, first that personal productivity was the lowest it had been on record, that the export sector had been in technical recession since 2004, that core govt spending had gone through the roof.

    I remember the secret budget that Cullen and Clarke were going to announce after the election. I can’t imagine where we would be if they had been allowed to implement it.

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  25. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    bogusnews..

    ..see above..

    ..and..i’m not sure what you’ve been smoking..

    ..but do you have any more..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  26. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    DPF, I was enjoying your blog and reading comments, right up until philu arrived again to pollute the place. If ever there was an argument for non-parole as opposed to Labours “catch and release” policy, I would argue for it. Please block the moron, I have a distaste for armed offeners.

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  27. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    rich prick..(probably just a pimply act on campus wannabe..eh..?..aren’t they particularly poignant..?..the poor-right..

    ..and so eager to please their ‘betters’..so i’ve noticed..

    ..sad..)

    ..anyway..who/whatever you are…

    ..you can always rip…eh..?

    ..go join the echo-chamber…with the other non-thinkers..

    ..and stop yr fucken moaning..yr ‘rich’ aren’t you..?..(snigger..!)

    ..what have you got to fucken moan about..?

    ..apart from the fact that yr gravy-train is about to pull into the station..?

    ..journey over…eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  28. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    I’m on no “gravy-train” I earn from private enterprise, and yes I finished university many years ago. Ply your shite elsewhere. Thanks.

    Oh, and seeing as you asked, yes, I am wealthy. More than you could ever imagine. But seeing as you wonder, I am currently choosing the colour and entertainment systems for my new bespoke car. Us rich pricks get those choices in life. And we don’t do drugs nor armed hold-ups to get them.

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  29. adze (2,130 comments) says:

    “And we don’t do drugs nor armed hold-ups to get them.”

    Ouch..

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  30. Inventory2 (9,380 comments) says:

    @DPF; I suspect I speak on behalf of many.

    Why do you allow Phillip Ure such lattitude to abuse, obfuscate and promote both his blog and his choice to be a long-term beneficiary, yet you’re dishing out demerits or warnings to those who say what most of us are thinking? Readers will vote with their feet.

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  31. RightNow (7,014 comments) says:

    Well at least we can catch up to Australia once their carbon tax kicks in.

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  32. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    IV2, endorsed profoundly.

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  33. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..nor armed hold-ups to get them…’

    no..you steal with a pen/privilege…eh..?

    and this one is hilarious..

    ‘I’m on no “gravy-train” I earn from private enterprise,’..

    ..eh..?

    ..and you may well be ‘rich’..numbnuts..

    ..but you got fuck all ‘class’..eh..?

    ..just yr chosen alias shows/proves that..

    ..i’ve met you before..

    ..nouveau-riche…

    ..and as gauche/tacky as all-fuck..eh..?..aren’t you..?

    ..(you’d have ‘water-features’..eh..?..heh..!..)

    ..just two steps from the gutter..and still with the smell..eh..?

    ..and you sound pretty fucken miserable with it..eh..?

    ..couldn’t buy happiness..?..

    ..ain’t that a bitch..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  34. Inventory2 (9,380 comments) says:

    I rest my case.

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  35. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..I am currently choosing the colour and entertainment systems for my new bespoke car…”

    tacky/gauche/nouveau riche…q.e.d…

    ..eh..?

    i’m going to call you nouveau riche prick from now on..eh..?

    ..just so we all don’t forget..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  36. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    Case well rested IV2. And you and I pay for that person’s survival. He should be the poster child for food stamps.

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  37. Clint Heine (1,495 comments) says:

    It was an good old fashioned scorched earth policy that Labour pursued when they found themselves double digits behind with 6 months to go until the polls.

    They re-nationalised the rail, which guaranteed that future Govts would be stuffed trying to keep it afloat, not to mention the political capital lost if they tried to sell it again. They fibbed about the hole in ACC as well. Every Labour MP that sits in the house from the last Govt know exactly what they did to ensure the Nats inherited a deficit and an economic tragedy waiting to happen. Many countries would have jailed Cullen and Clark – the Nats appointed Cullen into cushy jobs and helped Clark get an even cushier job with the UN.

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  38. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    phil, I get to choose, ain’t that hot. Its the new bi-turbo 6.3 litre V8 E-class (yes that’s a turbo for each cynider bank), and I’m just loving the delivery of it, every kilometer will fuck the greens off no end, I just thought you would be interested seeing as you keep going on about it.

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  39. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..bi-turbo 6.3 litre V8 E-class (..”

    yep..!..tacky/gauche/nouveau riche..

    ..hoon with money..

    ..but still just a hoon…

    ..eh..?

    ..are you a westie-boy..?

    ..in the motor-trade then..?

    ..del-boy..?

    ..nice motor..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  40. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    anyone else wondering if he is just a poor-rightie..?

    ..with a second-hand torano ..with flash hubcaps..?

    ..and a walter mitty imagination..

    dream on sailor..!

    ..turbos on each spoke there..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  41. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    Oh, you clearly have no idea. Just go look after that poor bastard kid we are all paying for. And get a job.

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  42. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    ah..!..so..you inherited it…?

    oh..!..well done there..!

    ..reason to feel superior..eh..?

    ..you’re a fucken joke..eh..?

    ..you don’t even have the/any kudos ..

    ..just a ‘lucky’ birth..eh….?

    ..was it a happy rich childhood..or one of those poor little rich kid gothic miseries..?

    ..did you have everything yet nothing..

    ..yr turbo on every cylinder over-compensation has me leaning to gothic..eh..?

    that’s sad…

    ..my boy had his dad meet him at the school gates every day..don’t you wish you’d had that..?..eh..?

    ..’rich’ can come in many ways..eh..?

    ..and have you used yr wealth/privilege for the freedom to be to be with yr children..?

    ..i think not..eh..?..you’d be ‘too busy’..eh..?

    and old-money..eh..?

    ..did yr ‘folks’ flog yr land from maori..eh..?

    ..as did most old-money here in new zealand..

    are you old-exploiters/thieves from way back..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  43. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    Get a job fucktard.

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  44. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    From there all possibilities grow.

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  45. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    well..going on yr 11.23…

    i think we can say that i have won that encounter….eh..?

    ..getting a bit close there..was i..?

    ..and that’s all ya got..?

    ..inherited ‘turboed-cylinders’..?

    what a fucken intellectual midget you turned out to be..eh..?

    ..lucky you inherited money..eh..?

    ..otherwise you’d have been in deep shit..eh..?

    and try again..some time..

    ..eh..?

    ..if you feel up to it..

    how are yr mental-bruises..?

    ..(hope i didn’t dig up bad memories for ya there..eh..?

    i lie..!..i hope i did..!

    go get someone to hug you..if anyone will..

    ..or do you buy that too..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  46. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    No phil, I’m really happy being very wealthy, I can pick and choose my cars each year, and not worry about weather an eft-pos transaction will be declined. Life is very good. After the car, I’m on a mission for a kick-arse bbq, starting at about $6k. Cheers looser. Sorry other readers, I just know this sort of thing sends phil mad.

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  47. axeman (252 comments) says:

    Inventory2 Says: @DPF; I suspect I speak on behalf of many.

    Why do you allow Phillip Ure such lattitude to abuse, obfuscate and promote both his blog and his choice to be a long-term beneficiary, yet you’re dishing out demerits or warnings to those who say what most of us are thinking? Readers will vote with their feet.

    Now you know how we feel about Keeping Stock and your persistence to allow that odious uber-troll guyton to pollute your site.

    No second guesses for how our feet voted.

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  48. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    axeman, you may not know of philu’s convictions. They are not nice, but he is a Greenie.

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  49. tas (655 comments) says:

    I just don’t read philu’s posts. It would be nice if I could just tell wordpress to not display his posts when I’m logged in.

    Everyone, just ignore him. Don’t feed the troll.

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  50. Nookin (3,562 comments) says:

    Well, that had the potential to be an interesting thread. Pity it was stuffed from the outset and simply got worse

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  51. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    “..After the car, I’m on a mission for a kick-arse bbq, starting at about $6k..”

    yes..as a vegan..i am regularly wracked by episodes of bbq-envy..

    ..it fits in well with my turboed-cylinder dreams..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  52. Bogusnews (414 comments) says:

    Phil,

    I’ll tell you what I’ve been smoking, its the same stuff used by Stats NZ. The results of the disastrous reign of Helen Clark can easily be seen there. They were the most incompetent govt in NZ’s history.

    If you want some examples, try this: Health, they increased spending from 7Bil to nearly 13Bil. At the same time, the hospital waiting lists increased from 100,000 to 180,000. So how’s that for competence. Almost double health spending and double the hospital waiting lists at the same time. Similar figures could be used on most govt departments. Massive increase in spending for very little result.

    the bloggers first started becoming aware of the massive waste about 2005. The most prosperous boom time of a generation was squandered.

    Possibly the most telling moment of the last administration came at almost the end of Clarks second term. Under intense cross examination Cullen had to admit that in real terms, the average NZ’er was no better off. Wages had increased, but the 41 additional taxes lumbered on us had completed negated this.

    How’s that? Six years of the most favourable economic conditions of any generation and by Cullens own admission, the average NZ’er was right back to where he started. I ask again, how incompetent is that.

    And remember how Clark said she wanted to raise NZ into the top half of the OECD? That lofty target was quickly dropped once the disciplines of achieving above average growth became apparent (disciplines, read check spending), so instead of rising the OECD we fell down a further two places.

    I stand by my earlier post, we got rid of that terrible govt just in the nick of time.

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  53. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    um..!..bogusnews…i have not voted labour for a very long time..

    ..i cd probably bang on longer than you on the faults/failures of the clark govt..

    ..but i also know that this govt is so much worse..

    ..they have grown the underclass…increased child-poverty..and all the other ills of poverty..

    ..and are borrowing like bandits to provide a gravy-train for the 1%…

    ..all in all…they are a fucken disaster…

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  54. philu (12,989 comments) says:

    rich prick..how do you earn yr monies..

    ..do you hurt animals..?

    ..or just flog widgets..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  55. jem (53 comments) says:

    philu,
    why are you insisting on all this vile abusive drivel, thats what Left blogs are for..

    Labour were no better than Nats during their term, they made many promises they didn’t keep and, to take a term that was captured in Cullens final year, Labour “….Left the Coffers Bare….” on their way out.

    So Im curious how you can say “….it is an irrefutable fact that cullen paid down govt debt..and handed key/english a govt in surplus…” . In 2007 the Labour government had approx $9Billion surplus, yet by 2008 they squandered it down to a mere $800k! Considering they did not have any natural disasters or world Recessions… that’s pretty horrendous wouldn’t you say.

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