A path out of debt
October 25th, 2011 at 5:01 pm by David FarrarOver at Stuff I blog on how the PREFU released today does show a path out of debt. An extract:
Today the Government opened the books. It is required to do this by law. The law was introduced in the early 1990s after the outgoing Labour government hid the true state of the crown accounts, and the fact that the then government-owned Bank of New Zealand needed a bailout. The incoming government received a shock when it realised the true state of the books.
This law showed its worth in 2008. The Budget in June 2008 painted a rosy picture of economic growth and ongoing surpluses. However, by October it was a different picture. We learned in the 2008 Pre-Election Fiscal and Update (Prefu) that in fact the economy had been in recession all year, and that the ongoing surpluses had been replaced with a decade of deficits.
The news got even worse two months later when Treasury did its December Economic Forecast Update (Defu). The decade of deficits had become a structural deficit that would have seen New Zealand ending up in a similar situation to Greece if no changes were made. Gross crown debt as a percentage of the economy was forecast to hit 57 per cent in 2023, or if the global economy continued to worsen, possibly as high as 76 per cent. At that stage you are like Greece, and the interest on the debt is so high that massive cuts in spending on welfare, health and education are necessary to be able to make the interest payments. …
If there is no change of fiscal policies, then the Government is still forecast to achieve a surplus again in the 2014-15 fiscal year, which should also be the year when net debt peaks at 29 per cent of GDP. It’s a much better outlook than three years ago.
There’s also some interesting stuff on how our trade with the US and China has changed over the last decade.
Related posts:
- The debt blame game
- PREFU: Ten years of deficits
- Key signals less debt while Goff promises more debt
- Clark and Cullen on Debt
October 25th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
(going on the recent record of predictions from treasury…how can you believe a word they say..?..
..just back in june they said the deficit would be $8 billion…they were only wrong by 100%..
..a few months later it is $16 billion..
..what overpaid fucken clowns they are..)
http://whoar.co.nz/2011/commentwhoar-wanna-pig-in-a-poke-treasury-release-their-economic-predictions-today/
and the only question really is…how wrong will those predictions be…?
just back in june..treasury predicted an $8 billion deficit for this year..
..as it turns out..just a few short months later…
..the actual deficit is actually $16 billion…(!)
..so they were 100% wrong…?
..but they still have a long way to go to reach their apogee from reality..
..that moment came just before the last election..
..when treasury (hilariously..as it turns out..) predicted the global economic crisis would be ‘all over’ by early the following year…2009..
..(that worked out well for them/us..eh..?..)
…these clowns get paid eye-watering amounts of money..
..to consistantly make predictions that are eye-wateringly wrong..
..why the hell should we believe a word they/treasury say…?
..let alone base any decisions on what they predict..?
..when their track-record shows them to be 100% wrong wrong wrong..
..all the time…
..why don’t they just throw a dart at a dart board…?
..pure luck could likely make them more accurate…
..(and what bemuses me…is that these clowns are never called to account for their blinding errors..
..they just come out all po-faced…
..and expect us to forget the product of their most recent fevered imaginations..
..(ed:..idjits..!..eh..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Starter for ten …
What on earth has this got to do with a parasitic worm who spends all day on the couch and has not ever, in his entire life of 50+ years, done anything to contribute to society, and has in fact, been a dead weight cost on the society that he leeches on?
No prizes will be awarded. The answer is simply too easy.
[DPF: Demerits next time. Don't attack the person]
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Soooo…. apparently because treasury aren’t perfectly predicting the future we should sack them?
Um, that seems a little harsh.
One assumes all those who *are* able to perfectly predict the future aren’t in the job market at all, having long since won lotto or something.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 6:52 pm
and of course treasury are now just serving up more of the same supporting key/national bullshit/lies…that they did last election..
‘cos their fantasy-driven claim the recession wd b over in early ’09..the sub-text of that was that we could afford the tax-cuts for the rich promised by key/nats…
..helped key win the election..
..whereas the exact opposite was true..on all fronts…
..and now they are doing it again..
yes there is a paragraph where they paint a possible worse scenario..(about 20% chance of..another ‘figure’/prediction’..eh..?..)
..but in the main..the subtext here is that key/national ‘have got it right’…
…which as we all know..is absolute horseshit…
..and i’d put their ’20%’-chance’ of the bad scenario…up to about 75-80%..eh..?
..basically treasury are making the case themselves..going on both their record and current pronouncements..
..that they are ideologically-driven..
..and are largely a handmaiden of the right..
..spinning the figures to try to help key/nact..
..that much is clear..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Oi fink dat Liarbours proposed budget, wot will see us all living a life of luxury by 2014, should take the GST orf of frozen wedge as well as fresh.
Yuh can’t expect the parasitic worms wot support the left to have the energy to peel fresh wedgies, after suffering under the jackboot of the rich pricks for three years, can yuh now ?
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
“..apparently because treasury aren’t perfectly predicting the future we should sack them?
Um, that seems a little harsh…”
scrubone…they said the recession wd be over early in ’09..
..back in june they said the deficit wd be $8 billion….
..four months later it is $16 billion…(!)
..how the fuck do you get something wrong by $8 billion dollars..?…
..how much more innacurate wd yu still be comfortable with there..scrubone..?
..and you believe them now..?
..wanna buy a bridge..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
There are a lot of *ifs* here, which gives the Nats a nice little “out” in 2014, just before the next election, which they will use because as Phil says, Treasury and virtually all economists have got GDP and forecasting completely wrong over the recent past. If we are in surplus in 2014-15 then I’ll offer myself to be put on the wrong side of a French ruck without goggles.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Probably a bloody earthquake had something to do with it.
Dumb Treasury pricks can’t predict earthquakes. Tossers!
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
WARNING: CHEMICAL HAZARD
HERE LIES PHIL ‘MAGPIE’ URE
HE DID FUCK ALL
HE KNEW FUCK ALL
HE WAS LESS THAN FUCK ALL
HE COULDN’T COUNT VERY WELL EITHER
MISSED BY NOBODY
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:08 pm
You mean Paula’s missed him Leonardo?
Fuck it that must be why he is back here!
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:10 pm
johnboy…the $8 billion ‘wrong’ was issued in june…
..this was post-earthquake…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:11 pm
The costs are still coming in phil.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
BTW, the post was on topic – it addressed his arithmetic
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:17 pm
Thought he could always count how many joints in an ounce?
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:24 pm
UMM, have to say I support Philu here. Treasury has an abysmal record of predicting anything. Problem is that no one seriously back checks their predictions. They are worse than the weather people where no-one looks back and actually charts predictions versus actual.
Now johnboy you will understand the weather men are mostly wrong and Treasury is no better.
The Reserve bank is just as bad.
Roger Dickens has been running a critique of why they are wrong all the time and why NZer’s pay so dearly for their poor forecasting.
You can go here and read what he has to say by browsing his site and finding the relevant newsletters.
Vote:http://www.sra.co.nz/
October 25th, 2011 at 7:25 pm
V2
You are quite correct.
You do support Phliu.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 7:45 pm
The law was introduced in the early 1990s after the outgoing Labour government hid the true state of the crown accounts…
Something they learned from the previous outgoing National govt.
Given the ludicrously over-optimistic forecasts Treasury and the Finance Minister are offering, it looks like Labour was correct in 2008 about the decade of deficits. Which just goes to show exactly how much changing between National and Labour really changes anything.
[DPF: Actually the Treasury forecasts are pretty much in the middle of the range of private sector forecasts.]
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
What times are we in if we have to agree with philu.
But repeat after me you Nat supporters: “if would be worse if Labour was in power.”
Yeah, we might just be 2 billion in debt.
What a farce this brighter future is. And how completely utterly hopeless must the opposition be if you can put up that slogan after a credit downgrade.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 8:18 pm
“Something they learned from the previous outgoing National govt.”
Yes, RD Muldoon, aka Rob the Goblin, closet pinko and non closet meglamaniac; trojan horse for “sensible centre left policies”. Timed just before his career ‘treading the boards’. “The public wouldn’t know a deficit if it tripped over one”. Early pioneer of Klerkula’s fiscal policy.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 8:24 pm
What you say about the economy in 2008 can’t be right. We have it on good authority from Phil himself that Labour managed the economy well. John Key has been riding on Labour’s coat tails.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 9:34 pm
PREFU – before you fuck up.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
You can’t have it both ways.
You can’t expect 4% wages growth next year (as Treasury predict) and still get productivity growth.
You certainly can’t cut government expenditure and expect the economy (and your tax receipts) not to be affected. To more you cut the lower the GDP, the less you end up in tax receipts.
We have a $18.5B govt deficit and half our GDP is governement related. What do you think is going to happen?
If you base your predictions on Treasury you are bound to end up looking stupid.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
“..We have it on good authority from Phil himself that Labour managed the economy well…”
well bob..whatever the criticisms of cullen..and i have many…
..it is an irrefutable fact that cullen paid down govt debt..and handed key/english a govt in surplus..
(despite national/key mewling from the sidelines for tax-cuts instead..
..yet more ‘economic-literacy’ from national…eh..?)
..in just three years they have managed to piss that surplus up against the wall..
..and go even further and drive us into horrendous levels of debt..once again..for tax cuts for the elites/1%..
(i mean..aren’t you fucken conservatives meant to think you are fucken economically-literate…?
..what the fuck is literate about what key and english have done to this country/economy…
,..and their ‘plan’..?
..is to continue borrowing for their gravy-train/tax-cuts..
..and to flog off our communal assets to their mates in the 1%…
..(i don’t buy that scary-foreign owner meme..eh..?..our 1% are perfectly venal/greedy enough to snatch up our communal assets..
..assets paid for/built-up by the rest of us..and over generations..
..and then rob/screw us blind on energy-prices…forever..)
..gee…!..that’d be also so ‘economically-literate’ of us all..eh..?
..to buy that puppy…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:03 pm
It certainly shows that we got rid of Labour without a minute to spare. Had they have continued their disastrous policies then goodness only knows where we would have ended up. There were several key issues, first that personal productivity was the lowest it had been on record, that the export sector had been in technical recession since 2004, that core govt spending had gone through the roof.
I remember the secret budget that Cullen and Clarke were going to announce after the election. I can’t imagine where we would be if they had been allowed to implement it.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:05 pm
bogusnews..
..see above..
..and..i’m not sure what you’ve been smoking..
..but do you have any more..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:11 pm
DPF, I was enjoying your blog and reading comments, right up until philu arrived again to pollute the place. If ever there was an argument for non-parole as opposed to Labours “catch and release” policy, I would argue for it. Please block the moron, I have a distaste for armed offeners.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
rich prick..(probably just a pimply act on campus wannabe..eh..?..aren’t they particularly poignant..?..the poor-right..
..and so eager to please their ‘betters’..so i’ve noticed..
..sad..)
..anyway..who/whatever you are…
..you can always rip…eh..?
..go join the echo-chamber…with the other non-thinkers..
..and stop yr fucken moaning..yr ‘rich’ aren’t you..?..(snigger..!)
..what have you got to fucken moan about..?
..apart from the fact that yr gravy-train is about to pull into the station..?
..journey over…eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:30 pm
I’m on no “gravy-train” I earn from private enterprise, and yes I finished university many years ago. Ply your shite elsewhere. Thanks.
Oh, and seeing as you asked, yes, I am wealthy. More than you could ever imagine. But seeing as you wonder, I am currently choosing the colour and entertainment systems for my new bespoke car. Us rich pricks get those choices in life. And we don’t do drugs nor armed hold-ups to get them.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
“And we don’t do drugs nor armed hold-ups to get them.”
Ouch..
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:39 pm
@DPF; I suspect I speak on behalf of many.
Why do you allow Phillip Ure such lattitude to abuse, obfuscate and promote both his blog and his choice to be a long-term beneficiary, yet you’re dishing out demerits or warnings to those who say what most of us are thinking? Readers will vote with their feet.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
Well at least we can catch up to Australia once their carbon tax kicks in.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:44 pm
IV2, endorsed profoundly.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:46 pm
“..nor armed hold-ups to get them…’
no..you steal with a pen/privilege…eh..?
and this one is hilarious..
‘I’m on no “gravy-train” I earn from private enterprise,’..
..eh..?
..and you may well be ‘rich’..numbnuts..
..but you got fuck all ‘class’..eh..?
..just yr chosen alias shows/proves that..
..i’ve met you before..
..nouveau-riche…
..and as gauche/tacky as all-fuck..eh..?..aren’t you..?
..(you’d have ‘water-features’..eh..?..heh..!..)
..just two steps from the gutter..and still with the smell..eh..?
..and you sound pretty fucken miserable with it..eh..?
..couldn’t buy happiness..?..
..ain’t that a bitch..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
I rest my case.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
“..I am currently choosing the colour and entertainment systems for my new bespoke car…”
tacky/gauche/nouveau riche…q.e.d…
..eh..?
i’m going to call you nouveau riche prick from now on..eh..?
..just so we all don’t forget..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Case well rested IV2. And you and I pay for that person’s survival. He should be the poster child for food stamps.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
It was an good old fashioned scorched earth policy that Labour pursued when they found themselves double digits behind with 6 months to go until the polls.
They re-nationalised the rail, which guaranteed that future Govts would be stuffed trying to keep it afloat, not to mention the political capital lost if they tried to sell it again. They fibbed about the hole in ACC as well. Every Labour MP that sits in the house from the last Govt know exactly what they did to ensure the Nats inherited a deficit and an economic tragedy waiting to happen. Many countries would have jailed Cullen and Clark – the Nats appointed Cullen into cushy jobs and helped Clark get an even cushier job with the UN.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 10:56 pm
phil, I get to choose, ain’t that hot. Its the new bi-turbo 6.3 litre V8 E-class (yes that’s a turbo for each cynider bank), and I’m just loving the delivery of it, every kilometer will fuck the greens off no end, I just thought you would be interested seeing as you keep going on about it.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:05 pm
“..bi-turbo 6.3 litre V8 E-class (..”
yep..!..tacky/gauche/nouveau riche..
..hoon with money..
..but still just a hoon…
..eh..?
..are you a westie-boy..?
..in the motor-trade then..?
..del-boy..?
..nice motor..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:09 pm
anyone else wondering if he is just a poor-rightie..?
..with a second-hand torano ..with flash hubcaps..?
..and a walter mitty imagination..
dream on sailor..!
..turbos on each spoke there..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:16 pm
Oh, you clearly have no idea. Just go look after that poor bastard kid we are all paying for. And get a job.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:22 pm
ah..!..so..you inherited it…?
oh..!..well done there..!
..reason to feel superior..eh..?
..you’re a fucken joke..eh..?
..you don’t even have the/any kudos ..
..just a ‘lucky’ birth..eh….?
..was it a happy rich childhood..or one of those poor little rich kid gothic miseries..?
..did you have everything yet nothing..
..yr turbo on every cylinder over-compensation has me leaning to gothic..eh..?
that’s sad…
..my boy had his dad meet him at the school gates every day..don’t you wish you’d had that..?..eh..?
..’rich’ can come in many ways..eh..?
..and have you used yr wealth/privilege for the freedom to be to be with yr children..?
..i think not..eh..?..you’d be ‘too busy’..eh..?
and old-money..eh..?
..did yr ‘folks’ flog yr land from maori..eh..?
..as did most old-money here in new zealand..
are you old-exploiters/thieves from way back..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
Get a job fucktard.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:26 pm
From there all possibilities grow.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:31 pm
well..going on yr 11.23…
i think we can say that i have won that encounter….eh..?
..getting a bit close there..was i..?
..and that’s all ya got..?
..inherited ‘turboed-cylinders’..?
what a fucken intellectual midget you turned out to be..eh..?
..lucky you inherited money..eh..?
..otherwise you’d have been in deep shit..eh..?
and try again..some time..
..eh..?
..if you feel up to it..
how are yr mental-bruises..?
..(hope i didn’t dig up bad memories for ya there..eh..?
i lie..!..i hope i did..!
go get someone to hug you..if anyone will..
..or do you buy that too..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
No phil, I’m really happy being very wealthy, I can pick and choose my cars each year, and not worry about weather an eft-pos transaction will be declined. Life is very good. After the car, I’m on a mission for a kick-arse bbq, starting at about $6k. Cheers looser. Sorry other readers, I just know this sort of thing sends phil mad.
Vote:October 25th, 2011 at 11:56 pm
Inventory2 Says: @DPF; I suspect I speak on behalf of many.
Why do you allow Phillip Ure such lattitude to abuse, obfuscate and promote both his blog and his choice to be a long-term beneficiary, yet you’re dishing out demerits or warnings to those who say what most of us are thinking? Readers will vote with their feet.
Now you know how we feel about Keeping Stock and your persistence to allow that odious uber-troll guyton to pollute your site.
No second guesses for how our feet voted.
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 12:06 am
axeman, you may not know of philu’s convictions. They are not nice, but he is a Greenie.
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 6:06 am
I just don’t read philu’s posts. It would be nice if I could just tell wordpress to not display his posts when I’m logged in.
Everyone, just ignore him. Don’t feed the troll.
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 6:16 am
Well, that had the potential to be an interesting thread. Pity it was stuffed from the outset and simply got worse
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 6:21 am
“..After the car, I’m on a mission for a kick-arse bbq, starting at about $6k..”
yes..as a vegan..i am regularly wracked by episodes of bbq-envy..
..it fits in well with my turboed-cylinder dreams..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 6:36 am
Phil,
I’ll tell you what I’ve been smoking, its the same stuff used by Stats NZ. The results of the disastrous reign of Helen Clark can easily be seen there. They were the most incompetent govt in NZ’s history.
If you want some examples, try this: Health, they increased spending from 7Bil to nearly 13Bil. At the same time, the hospital waiting lists increased from 100,000 to 180,000. So how’s that for competence. Almost double health spending and double the hospital waiting lists at the same time. Similar figures could be used on most govt departments. Massive increase in spending for very little result.
the bloggers first started becoming aware of the massive waste about 2005. The most prosperous boom time of a generation was squandered.
Possibly the most telling moment of the last administration came at almost the end of Clarks second term. Under intense cross examination Cullen had to admit that in real terms, the average NZ’er was no better off. Wages had increased, but the 41 additional taxes lumbered on us had completed negated this.
How’s that? Six years of the most favourable economic conditions of any generation and by Cullens own admission, the average NZ’er was right back to where he started. I ask again, how incompetent is that.
And remember how Clark said she wanted to raise NZ into the top half of the OECD? That lofty target was quickly dropped once the disciplines of achieving above average growth became apparent (disciplines, read check spending), so instead of rising the OECD we fell down a further two places.
I stand by my earlier post, we got rid of that terrible govt just in the nick of time.
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 6:43 am
um..!..bogusnews…i have not voted labour for a very long time..
..i cd probably bang on longer than you on the faults/failures of the clark govt..
..but i also know that this govt is so much worse..
..they have grown the underclass…increased child-poverty..and all the other ills of poverty..
..and are borrowing like bandits to provide a gravy-train for the 1%…
..all in all…they are a fucken disaster…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 7:50 am
rich prick..how do you earn yr monies..
..do you hurt animals..?
..or just flog widgets..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 26th, 2011 at 11:33 am
philu,
why are you insisting on all this vile abusive drivel, thats what Left blogs are for..
Labour were no better than Nats during their term, they made many promises they didn’t keep and, to take a term that was captured in Cullens final year, Labour “….Left the Coffers Bare….” on their way out.
So Im curious how you can say “….it is an irrefutable fact that cullen paid down govt debt..and handed key/english a govt in surplus…” . In 2007 the Labour government had approx $9Billion surplus, yet by 2008 they squandered it down to a mere $800k! Considering they did not have any natural disasters or world Recessions… that’s pretty horrendous wouldn’t you say.
Vote: