Herald Poll
October 29th, 2011 at 11:23 am by David FarrarOh how the left howled cries of triumph. They said the Rena would crush National. No it was the credit downgrade. No it was John Key’s gesture in Parliament. No it was over-egging what Standard and Poors said.
And then today the Herald Digipoll reports National up 1.5% and Labour down 1.2%.
Mind you while a 23% gap is a good one, it is worth recalling that the important gap is CR-CL which is closer. It still only takes a 5% swing and then a Labour/Green/Winston/Hone coalition becomes a possibility.
Tags: Polls
October 29th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Hi David
As a comparison to the 2002 election, which many seem to draw comparisons too, what was Labour’s party vote 4 weeks out from the election?
Many are saying that they were at or above 50% leading in to that election but then dropped…. can you recall what they were at 4 weeks out so we can compare?
Thanks
[DPF: Labour four weeks out were at an average 51% and National 26%. It is worth noting that the 2002 election was a snap election]
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
It still only takes a 5% swing and then a Labour/Green/Winston/Hone coalition becomes a possibility.
Crikey. Really?
What is the undecided at national level running at right now? Anyone know?
According to Bob Chapman’s Pendulum theory, the greater that is for longer in the run up, the bigger the swing against the incumbent.
Dangerous times.
Fuck, imagine it.
I think though the country is aware of the exigencies in 2011 and will use its head. I have
Vote:hopeconfidence in that.October 29th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
And 10 days out United Future was about half a percent – and ended up with 6.69%
Labour 41.26%
National 20.93%
NZ First 10.38%
Act 7.14%
Green 7.00%
UnitedFuture 6.69%
So Both National and Labour dropped significantly, and that’s quite possible again this election.
What’s different now is that:
- Act are going to struggle to stay in at all and look like gettting nowhere near 5%
- NZ First will struggle to get 5% unless Winston runs a brilliant campaign and isn’t grumpy about the media
- Greens will probably improve
- UnitedFuture have a reliable background, an interesting new list and are the logical safe vote
Of course I might be slightly biased, but this is kinda obvious stuff.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
But there’s your problem – Labour’s campaign is snarky and negative. It’s all about what they won’t do, rather than what they will.
They don’t even believe in their own leader.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
National is in a commanding position no doubt about that. But National may drop a point or two going into the election. But it’s so far so good. I see the St Marys Bay tunnel opens today. Yesterday it was the day with Peter Jackson. I assume the next 30 days will be packed with good news stories. I hope Stephen Joyce manages to open the Kopu bridge before the election.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
I think the chances of a United Future surge to 6.7% is unlikely this time PG, but a few percent should be in the bag with the special interest groups being represented on your list this time. Hopefully United Future will be all National needs to govern; much less likely to do something crazy and throw the toys compared to Act and Maori Party.
How’s Dunedin North going? I imagine the old Hodgson majority will be well and truly slashed this time – any polls done in the area?
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
freddos – it’s really a bit of a lottery and depends on which way the wind blows and what the MSM decide might be good for their ratings. I know 6.7 is a bit of a long shot but it’s not out of the question, and a few percent/MPs are quite on the cards.
I’m happy with the impact I’ve made so far but no polls so I have no idea how things stand. It’s likely Hodgsons majority will be severely dented but hard to say by how much.
Clark (Labour) seems a nice guy but dedicated to pushing the party lines.
Woodhouse (National) has made no indication he is making a play for the electorate so must be happy on the list.
Turei (Greens) is sticking to party patter so far – poverty blah blah, inequality blah blah.
George (UnitedFuture) is having a lot of fun and making some waves but impossible to know what will happen.
I’m well aware history, apathy and being exluded/ignored (by some) are my biggest hurdles, but I’ve come further than I’d expected already and am setting no limits – you only find out by giving things a damn good try.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
PG
It would be great to see a surge for United Future…..Hopefully you guys get a fair hearing from the media so your messages can get out there.
I hear “the worm” is back for the TV3 leaders debates for minor parties……maybe this will help things again??
All the best!!
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
It’s difficult getting attention when you aren’t controversial.
UF have the smartest (and notably different) approach to Super but that hardly gets covered, just Labour’s Claytons super change, Nationals intransigence, and Greens and Peters non-committal.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
@PG yeah doesn’t seem Woodhouse is up to much, I would have thought Turei would get some traction with the students though? Maybe you should make the no fees tertiary education policy your bottom line if you get in and then target the student vote.
Just make sure you get two ticks!
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
I make it less than 1% for CR, and 99% for CL and L. National needs to change its direction if it is to qualify as CR. I hope the medium term strategy is to become CR, taking at least some of the electorate with them. Hard while the MSM is so L.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
“..Crikey. Really?..”
sound of large clang/empty echo signifies penny dropping for reid..
..this is what i have been telling you all along..
..yr gloating-triumphalism derives from deluding yrslf with f.p.p.-thinking…
..it is the groupings that matter…
..and it is just that you lot have all yr eggs in one basket…
..whereas the other side is a more ebbing/flowing/swirling beast…
..but there is only 5% difference..
..game on..eh..?
..and mana haven’t even come out yet with their killer-policies..
..policies that will make a lot of people go..’i want some of that’…
http://whoar.co.nz/2011/comment-whoar-bloody-hell-how-about-that-mana-party-policy-eh/
..how is act going for ya…?
..how is yr (false)-assumption the maori party will go with you..?
..and how about that opening last nite..?
..a bad end to a bad week…for nact/key..
..eh..?
..not quite going as you presumed..eh..?
..buckle-up tiger..!
.it’s gonna be a rough ride..
..even more nerve-wracking than that oval-ball-game..
..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Peter George
I admire your pluck and optimism. And I know that Hodgson was a long standing incumbent and Clark is a first timer in this seat vs Woodhouse who’se having a 2nd crack but even with National’s current polling, Clark will be odds on to win with a well reduced majority.
As someone who voted party vote for United for 2 elections in the past I have always liked Peter Dunn but the 2002 lightening will not strike twice for your party. You managed a paltry 0.87% in 2008 and Dunn if anything is even less of a factor in 2011 despite being a steady and capable minister. If United get over 1% it will be a miracle – it will take more than the worm!
But good luck anyhow!
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
kia:
- Winston may not be any factor
- Act look like being less of a factor, maybe no factor
- Maori Party don’t look like being more of a factor
- National aren’t looking like a 50% factor
- Labour are looking like a 20-30% factor
It will be different to 2002 for sure, but all parties look weaker except maybe Nats may hold steady, they haven’t done anywhere near enough to deserve sole charge.
United Future looks good in Ohariu, has depth of experience in Rob Eaddy, and is rebuilding via the list, there’s some significant candidates for certain demographics. There’s a lot going on that the pundits and media ignore.
I think I’ll stand on the beach dressed in black and white and cover myself with oil and see if they might take notice.
Otherwise it’s difficult, we don’t want to announce hardly any policy like National, or desperate last minute try anything policy like Labour, or touchy feely dreamworld policy like Greens, or just be plain nuts like Mana while they flaunt electoral and council law. Minto said on Vote Chat yesterday he didn’t even want to be in parliament.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
PS – it’s not optimism, it’s nothing to lose/see how far I can take it/have a lot of fun determination.
There is no limit to expectations because it’s all new territory.
How many candidates have the backing of a sound sensible party, and have the freedom to go for what they want?
Maybe UnitedFuture is ahead of the times in it’s approach this election but how we do politics is going to change, it’s already started to happen, it’s just that the old parties haven’t woken up to it.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
I’m curious as to why Labour have Goff fronting their TVC’s, yet not appearing on their billboards. Aren’t they trying to avoid a presidential-style election?
Or is it another knife in the back for Goff to present their muppet policies, whilst at an electorate level candidates will focus on personality?
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
17 elections in Germany since MMP was introduced and all have been coalitions. MMP was designed so no party could govern alone. Labour was @51% four weeks out in 2002 and got 41%. The voters did not want them to govern alone and were looking for something. It’s time for Act to step up this time. And this time we have a referendum where MMP is likely to be the preference. That should get right-thinking people focused on coalition voting; not single party voting.
The only question voters should be asking is whether they want Nats/Act and maybe Peter Dunne, or a coalition of losers that want to tax, spend, hope and eventually go bust.
It really is that simple.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Nick K,
Vote:Actually in 1957 the CDU/CSU got 50.2% of the vote. However, they continued their coalition with the FDP, despite having an outright majority.
So winning outright is possible. I think the situation now is rather different to 2002. Back then I think there was substantial distruct of both major parties – Labour won in part because National was regarded as hopeless. This time round the level of trust is far higher – especially of National. But it is minor parties who attarct less trust. So I think a 50%+ result for National is possible. I certainly don’t think they will fall to 42%!
October 29th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Not really. The problem with that scenario is that it assumes NZF will breach the 5% threshold. Not a single credible poll has them even close to doing that. The media, and you too David, should really stop factoring him in. He’s gone for good.
National is going to cruise home comfortably.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
> National is going to cruise home comfortably.
I seem to recall hearing something similar recently about another event. That’s right, the Rugby World Cup final.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Good points s.russell. Thanks.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
This time round the level of trust is far higher – especially of National.
I think you could be talking things up there. I don’t hear that much at all.
And do you think Labour is trusted more than English’s National? Act aren’t trusted. Winston Peter’s can’t have increased his trust factor and probably won’t figure anyway.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 5:21 pm
United Future isn’t trusted at all. Dunne changes his positions daily – you only have to ask him and he’ll change his vote. There are countless examples over the years.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Wish some clever dick in Tauranga would sail out and repaint the bow of the Rena. SS Labour has a nice ring about it and the similarity’s are staggering.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Wish some clever dick in Tauranga would sail out and repaint the bow of the Rena.
Bob it’s probably easier just to photoshop it on.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
Never thought of that reid but we are a bit slow in the sticks.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Nick K: Peter Dunne was trusted by Helen Clark and he’s trusted by John Key – and a lot of other politicians. Some MPs hissy fit for three years when elections don’t favour their side, in contrast the Dunnes do what they can to work with government for country whenever they can, sort of what I’d expect out of a good MP.
But I guess facts won’t stop you bittering.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Come on Pete, Possum head should be installed at the top of the beehive, make a good weather vain. The families commission hardly altered the destiny of the country. Instead of flapping in the breeze stand for one policy that you actually believe in. Mediocrity doesn’t cut it.
Vote:October 29th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
ssb – there’s plenty of it here http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/
Income sharing for couples with families
Vote:Choice of starting super between 60 and 70
Retain free public access to all beaches and waterways (and clean up waterways)
Asset sales – no sale of Kiwibank, Radio NZ, water resources
1080 – much more effort to find and test replacement
Free annual health check and winter power subsidy for over 65s – will reduce health spending
Tertiary – zero fees and no student allowances
October 30th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
60/100 Green Party voters thing the Greens should do a deal with National. Delahunty says she would resign if the Greens did a deal (a stick falling in the forest).
Vote: