Hone ahead in Te Tai Tokerau

October 31st, 2011 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Te Karere have just released a Digipoll for Tea Tai Tokerau electorate. I have full details at Curiablog.

Hone Harawira leads Kelvin Davis by 7%. Margin of error is 5%, which means there is a 95% chance Hone is ahead of Davis.

The party vote is almost a three way tie – Labour 27%, Maori 27%, Mana 25%.

Key is Preferred PM and Harawira most favoured Maori MP.

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12 Responses to “Hone ahead in Te Tai Tokerau”

  1. Courage Wolf (557 comments) says:

    Thanks for refusing to abolish the Maori seats after taking over from Brash John Key you dumb fuck.

    [DPF: 20 demerits]

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  2. Roflcopter (450 comments) says:

    Angry much?

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  3. s.russell (1,603 comments) says:

    Remarkable that 41% say they will vote for the Government (27% Maori Party and 14% National).

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  4. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    there you go again russel..

    running wild with that assumption the maori party is somehow ‘yours’…

    ..tsk..tsk…!

    ..so make that ‘govt 27%’..end of story…

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  5. Grizz (592 comments) says:

    Here is the problem. Voter turnout in Maori Electorates is poor. It is one of the reasons for overhang in the existing parliament. You may be able to canvas people on the spot and find out that Hone has a small lead. However, come polling day, what it comes down to is if these people can be bothered or even remember to go down to the polling booth. If it is a nice day, a day out fishing or getting even just getting stoned may get in the way.

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  6. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    grizz you are letting yr racist-goggles blur you to the fact of the history that the maori electorate try different coats on for size..

    ..and if they don’t fit..they discard them..(remember new zealand first..?..when they were maori..?

    ..and the maori party is the latest to disapooint…

    ..and hone/mana is that new coat on the rack..

    ..the next to be tried on..

    ..so they get out enough on the day to affect those election seachanges..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  7. Grizz (592 comments) says:

    Philu, the fact that you call me racist is a reflection of your fucked up mind. I made a statement that voters in the Maori seats are notorious for not turning up. This is a statement backed up by facts from years of observing voter turnout. I may not have the right answer why turnout is so low so perhaps you could state a reason why this may be.

    Look at the facts. Most General Electorates have approximately 30-35,000 voters. The Maori seats have approximately the same. The turnout for general electorates is usually between 26-30000, which in the Western world is very good.

    However, voter turnout for Te Tai Tokerau in 2008 was only 19,400. 500 of these votes were informal. In other words, 4% of trhe electorate who turned up to the polling booth were incapable of putting a tick in any box. In my observation, while people might say they will vote one way, the question is, will they be too infatuated in wearing their new coat to actually cast a formal vote. Such a question will only be answered on polling day.

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  8. Manolo (13,519 comments) says:

    Harawira most favoured Maori MP.

    Enough said.

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  9. DrDr (114 comments) says:

    http://www.elections.org.nz/maori/study/maori-research-rfp-jan06.html

    Scroll down to see the turnout figures, Maori are consistently lower than general electorate turnouts.

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  10. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    grizz..i was referring to yr parroting of racist stereotypes..

    ..i know the turnout is traditionally low in from the maori roll..

    ..could it be that both major parties have fucked them every which way..?

    since forever..?

    ..d’yareckon that might have something to do with it..?

    ..when for them..there has been little difference who has ruled..for some time..esp since that rightwing revolution kicked off by douglas..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  11. Mark (1,474 comments) says:

    The far north and especially the west coast of the far north is an area with one of the lowest per household incomes in New Zealand. It is hardly surprising that Hone appeals to the Maori electorate here.

    His policies are extremely left wing and targeted and also there is the element of rebelliousness that appeals to the young and disaffected. I would be surprised if he is headed off.

    Grizz you may well be quoting facts but the undertone is fairly unambiguous. it is not a factor unique to Maori or NZ that low socio-economic groups have low voter turnout. It is simply a factor that that helps the centre right maintain a majority

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  12. Aaron1968 (1 comment) says:

    David, if there is a 7% gap say 42 to 35 by memory then 5% margin of error means overlap on the tails so 42-5 =38 cf 35+5 = 40 means less than 95% confidence Hone is ahead of Davis? my stats is 25 years ago and you do polls so it would be good for you to explain what margin of error actually means about confidence interval in a two tail test? Unless I’m wrong, which I concede is possible after such a long time from stats101; it so long ago I can’t find the log tables or know if there is missing info to calculate what the confidence interval required is to indicate Hone is actually ahead of Davis for that result.

    [DPF: There is a 94.5% chance on that result that Hone is actually ahead of Davis.

    If Cand A result is in B1, Cand B in B2 and sample size in B3 then standard error of difference is =SQRT( (B1*(1-B1)/B3)+(B2*(1-B2)/B3)+(2*((B1*B2)/B3)) )

    Then to work out the probability A is ahead of B, =NORMDIST(B1-B2,0,B5,TRUE) ]

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