Was it a cunning plan?

October 3rd, 2011 at 3:27 pm by David Farrar

The latest iPredict update notes:

There has been a change of forecast winner in . For the first time since March, National’s Chris Auchinvole is expected to retain the rugby league loving (55% probability up from 47% last week). This follows media reports of attacks on prominent rugby league supporter Sir (“The Mad Butcher”) by two Labour MPs.

Now of course we don’t know why this has changed, but O’Connor has been in front since March, so you would think there is some specific event which changed this.

Sir Peter is popular on the Coast. He helped a west coast old lady “fleeced of life savings” and the Warriors played a match for Pike River Miners.

Now what is interesting is that Damien O’Connor is not on the party list. If he does not win West Coast-Tasman, he is out of Parliament. Now what this means for Labour is that they get one extra List MP. And you know what if Labour get around 24% to 25%, would lose her list seat if Damien O’Connor wins West Coast-Tasman, but will keep her seat if he loses it.

So was her outburst on Facebook just a stupid unthinking outburst, or was it not so stupid after all?

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44 Responses to “Was it a cunning plan?”

  1. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    DPF, you would make Niccolo Machiavelli proud! :D

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  2. DJP6-25 (1,313 comments) says:

    Conspiracy v cockup. The odds are, it was a cockup.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  3. lastmanstanding (1,241 comments) says:

    Yep the plan was hatched in that big building on 1st Ave NYC

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  4. Matthew Hooton (126 comments) says:

    I’m with DJP6-25. This is way complicated for Darien to have worked out. A Helen Clark or John Key maybe. But Darien Fenton? No way.

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  5. Nookin (3,185 comments) says:

    Petty people do not have complex master plans.

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  6. Murray (8,842 comments) says:

    Lets see… arrogant stupidity or cunningly subtle plan that went off without a hitch… from the labour party?

    Fat chance.

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  7. James Stephenson (2,096 comments) says:

    I’m sure Damien will love delivering the “Vote for me and keep Fenton out of Parliament” line on the doorstep…

    I think we can class this as a Happy Mischief Fomented WIN!

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  8. Matthew Hooton (126 comments) says:

    Having said that, DPF’s analysis is correct. If Damien loses then Darien wins. What a totally fucked up party (and electoral system) is that?

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  9. Pete George (23,345 comments) says:

    Sounds more like #bryceedwardsconspiracy to me.

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  10. dime (9,676 comments) says:

    Someone told me Darian is an [deleted by DPF and demerits in future]

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  11. Roflcopter (446 comments) says:

    DPF, how low would labour vote have to be, assuming Damien loses, for Fenton to miss out as well?

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  12. James Stephenson (2,096 comments) says:

    [deleted by DPF and demerits in future]

    I thought that Fenton had admitted to that at some point?

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  13. dime (9,676 comments) says:

    opps, sorry DPF.

    i thought that fact was part of her Bio.. like “ex-whatever comes good” type thing.

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  14. tvb (4,255 comments) says:

    I think the Government has more problems with Cave creek than the a Labour Party non-entity insulting Butch.

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  15. Peter (1,673 comments) says:

    Too clever for that MP.

    I’m calling cock-up.

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  16. kiwi in america (2,477 comments) says:

    Definitely cock up

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  17. Grizz (540 comments) says:

    DPF, whatever was deleted has been stated on comments here before. There is an Investigate article dedicated to the subject, but the authenticity of it depends on whether you believe Ian Wishart and his ex-druggie witness. However the article does not mention timing and I respect people can overcome demons and should be given a second go.

    I Know, demerits.

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  18. RRM (9,667 comments) says:

    I dunno, but if it is a cunning plan to show up the union facet of Labour for what it is then I like it…

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  19. Elaycee (4,333 comments) says:

    Cunning plan? Nah – not a bolters.

    Fenton wouldn’t have the nous to be able to figure out the permutations…. even with a helping hand!

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  20. Put it away (2,888 comments) says:

    they say you shouldn’t attribute to malice something that can be explained by simple incompetence. Labour seems to have both in equal measure so I wouldn’t like to make a call. The malice angle is more entertaining though

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  21. nellie (4 comments) says:

    “Someone told me Darian is an [deleted by DPF and demerits in future]”

    Well that made me go and look up the Invesitgate article….

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  22. Monty (966 comments) says:

    or better still and the way Labour are going they will get 22.7% (less than Billy English in 2002) and both would be on the dole queue. but I would prefer Damian over Darien 0 and at this point in time so would all the MPs and candidates between Kaitaia and Invercargill

    and yes dime – no idea what was deleted but if it involves Fenton (self serving unionist and part of the Wimmins wing) then I suspect it would be true

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  23. Inventory2 (10,181 comments) says:

    Don’t forget that Darien Fenton was the National Secretary of the SFWU before she became an MP, and that it was Damien O’Connor who made the “gaggle of gays and self-serving unionists” comment earlier in the year. Could this be pay-back?

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  24. tas (596 comments) says:

    DPF: peddling this kind of conspiracy theory discredits you. I’m fairly sure you posted it as a joke, but, judging by the comments, it is being considered somewhat seriously.

    Fenton’s comments make it less likely for her to get in.—i.e. the damage to the Labour party vote is more likely to kick her out than damage to competing Labour MPs electorate votes is likely to get her in. And I doubt she hates Damien enough to do this just to attack him.

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  25. toad (3,673 comments) says:

    Damien “Gaggle of Gays” O’Connor is a homophobe. I would be very happy is he is out of Parliament.

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  26. Inventory2 (10,181 comments) says:

    Oh bollocks Toad; you lefties are quick to throw labels like that around. Now Trevor Mallard; that’s a different story again…

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  27. toad (3,673 comments) says:

    @Inventory2 5:32 pm

    And Trevor out too. His “Tinkerbell” references to Christopher Finlayson were completely unacceptable. Greens don’t do this nasty homophobic shit – it is the preserve of Neanderthals from Labour and National. Oh, and if Banks gets back into Parliament…

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  28. jaba (2,096 comments) says:

    not a shit show in hell Fenton would be smart enough to work that out .. she said what she believed and as with many Labour MP’s, let fly without thinking which is great as it shows the public what sort of MP’s Labour have

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  29. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Damien “Gaggle of Gays” O’Connor is a homophobe. I would be very happy is he is out of Parliament.

    toad, do you kick with both feet too?

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  30. Nichlemn (63 comments) says:

    I think O’Connor was overpriced to begin with. Given that National (and the centre-right as a whole) is projected to do better than in 2008, it seemsed unlikely that National would be favoured to lose an incumbent Electorate MP.

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  31. Put it away (2,888 comments) says:

    Jeez Toad, an MP expressing the views of his electorate, rather than repeating what’s fashionable amongst the party heirarchy… what kind of madness is that? Unheard of in the Greens, I’m sure, but then again you don’t get many electorates choosing a Green to represent them, so I guess it doesn’t come up very often

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  32. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    “Damien “Gaggle of Gays” O’Connor is a homophobe. I would be very happy is he is out of Parliament.”

    That means that he is a decent man. Good on him. Of course he does not support mass murdering tyrants and terrorists like Locke did, but I guess your just fine with that right Toad? So long as they are pro-buggery terrorist supporters are just fine?

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  33. Viking2 (11,283 comments) says:

    Ahhh, rather like a scene from Blackadder.

    Maybe come back sooner than you thought DPF.
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/10/talking_of_cunning_plans_.html

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  34. toad (3,673 comments) says:

    @Lee01 6:52 pm

    So long as they are pro-buggery terrorist supporters are just fine?

    I’m sure your “terrorists” are very anti-buggery Lee01. To the point some of them they put people to death for it. As would you, if you got your way, I suspect.

    You are a homophobic, Islamophobic bigot imo. Now just say something about women belonging in the kitchen or pinned to the bed by your omnipotent dick and you get the trifecta.

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  35. Rodders (1,790 comments) says:

    Don’t forget that Lee01 also believes that virtually every Chinese business in New Zealand has links to the Chinese military.

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  36. Fisiani (996 comments) says:

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2011/10/auslander.html

    Chris Trotter has just realised that Labour is stuffed.

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  37. Rich Prick (1,635 comments) says:

    DPF it is your blog, but I’m not too sure why you are dishing out demerits, Fenton is an ex-junkie (just google it). And Arden is a horse (a pic is worth 10 words) and they are the flotsam that will be Labour 2011 onwards. Voters should know these things, well, the former at least whether Arden looks like a horse is of no moment.

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  38. Kimble (4,417 comments) says:

    Probably cock-up, but its weird how the world works out sometimes.

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  39. Kimble (4,417 comments) says:

    Don’t forget that Lee01 also believes that virtually every Chinese business in New Zealand has links to the Chinese military.

    Far be it for me to defend someone who believes in an all-caring, non-intervening, omnipotent, freewill allowing, magic friend in the sky, outside our universe, but every Chinese person is probably no more than 3 degrees of separation from someone in the Chinese military.

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  40. Rodders (1,790 comments) says:

    Rick Prick @11.14pm – Please provide a link to a photo of yourself, so that others can judge your appearance. Otherwise, you are a coward and hypocrite.

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  41. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    DPF it is your blog, but I’m not too sure why you are dishing out demerits, Fenton is an ex-junkie (just google it).

    Do I have the right to call Whoar, aka Phil Ure, an ex-junkie? You bet I do.

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  42. Murray (8,842 comments) says:

    No Manolo you do not have the right to call Phool and ex junkie. He frequently and proudly aserts his ongoing abuse of illegal drugs.

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  43. lofty (1,304 comments) says:

    Jeeze Rich Prick, it must be great to look in the mirror each morning and thank the great sky pilot that you are blessed with the looks of Adonis.
    I must say I would not mind Aderns red boots under my bed, so long as I did not have to listen to her politics.

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  44. Rich Prick (1,635 comments) says:

    Yeah yeah, she is hot, but nothing better than playing mind games with lefties. Why she is a leftie is another question altogether.

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