Cosgrove trailing by 18%

November 12th, 2011 at 8:45 am by David Farrar

The Press reports:

Labour MP faces a crushing defeat as a new poll shows his National rival, , has opened up a huge lead in the seat.

A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll in the seat put Wilkinson on 53.9 per cent of decided voters against 36 per cent for Cosgrove. The only consolation for Cosgrove is that the poll of 250 voters had a margin of error of 6.2 per cent and a high proportion of undecided voters – 23.5 per cent.

The poll also showed a huge lead for National of 71.9 per cent to Labour’s 17.4 per cent.

That compares with 2008 when National won the party vote in the seat by 49.4 per cent to 33.9 per cent for Labour.

Paul Epplett of Research International said his best explanation for the huge shift in support was related to the earthquake and polling on that had been positive for National.

This will worry Labour greatly, to be 18% behind in a seat they currently hold. Having said that, the party vote figures look a bit extreme to me, so I wouldn’t take the exact margin as gospel.

But what will be worrying Labour, is if one seat they hold now has them 18% behind, what about the others? Their next most marginal seats are Rimutaka, Christchurch Central, Palmerston North, Wellington Central, New Lynn, Hutt South and Te Atatu.

UPDATE: Whale has a post pointing out that the woman in the advertisements Cosgrove is running who says “Why I’m voting for Clayton Cosgrove” is not even registered to vote in Waimakariri – she is on the Te Tai Tonga roll. He couldn’t even find someone from his electorate to endorse him so he got a union official

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16 Responses to “Cosgrove trailing by 18%”

  1. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,832 comments) says:

    Labour do look like a bunch of losers, just like the few people who will eventually vote for them.

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  2. JamesS (352 comments) says:

    I sincerely hope this poll is accurate; Cosgrove is a nasty piece of work and nothing would be more deserved than defeat.

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  3. Henry64 (83 comments) says:

    Hmmm, only 250 people polled but I too would love to see the back of this guy. I live in the electorate and will voting for Kate and National, as I did last time.

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  4. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Begone ,Mono brow begone, nothing but a stammering fool.

    My biggest bitch with MMP is the fact that fools like this will get in on the list,——— you are either stand in a seat or go on a list , not both.

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  5. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Out with the rubbish, I say.

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  6. burt (8,190 comments) says:

    Please please let there be a massive crushing defeat for Labour – let them know that the voters tired of their 70’s policies in the early 80’s and really don’t want to go back to the political arm of the unions running the country.

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  7. James Stephenson (2,138 comments) says:

    This will worry Labour greatly

    …they obviously read the tea leaves though, given debranding Cosgrove’s been doing. It ain’t working Clayton.

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  8. emmess (1,420 comments) says:

    Shhh, Labour are busy fighting the battlegrounds of last election e.g. Auckland Central,New Plymouth, Westcoast-Tasman, not realising or ignoring the fact that the gap is likely to open up from 12% to 20-25% and therefore they have left the new marginals exposed, such as Waimakariri.

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  9. backster (2,141 comments) says:

    I don’t know much about Cosgrove but I heard him defending the right to charge rich pricks more for Earthquake and War Damage coverage. All he did was blather nonsense non stop and I wondered how anyone could vote for such an idiot.

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  10. thedavincimode (6,606 comments) says:

    Astonishing.

    I thought Wilkinson had a shocker with her original responses to immediately reviewing mine safety (now altered I recall). There was nothing stopping her department reviewing procedures etc ASAP, and incorporating the eventual recommendations from the RC subsequently.

    Would not have thought that would go down at all well in that part of the world. That plus the high profile given to the whingers and bitchers re dealing with the earthquakes.

    Looks like National & Wilkinson are getting more credit in that part of the world than you would expect if you picked up the paper or watched the news. But then …

    BTW (was it D Garrett?) – love his local nickname and the reason there for “the carpet inspector”

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  11. tvb (4,319 comments) says:

    His traditional supporters in crap suburbs that got badly hit by the earthquake may have depleted his traditional supporters. And a good thing too. He is a nasty nasty little man, but Judith Collins has him sorted.

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  12. Elaycee (4,352 comments) says:

    “UPDATE: Whale has a post pointing out that the woman in the advertisements Cosgrove is running who says “Why I’m voting for Clayton Cosgrove” is not even registered to vote in Waimakariri – she is on the Te Tai Tonga roll. ”

    Yup – this is a throwback to the ‘old’ Clayton’s campaign – its an endorsement you have when you don’t have an endorsement.

    :P

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  13. Shazzadude (526 comments) says:

    Of the other seats you mention, I think Rimutaka is in extreme danger of moving. Ron Mark actually had little effect on Hipkin’s margin in 2008 as it happens, given that 10% of National Party voters gave their electorate vote to Ron Mark as opposed to 12% of Labour voters.

    I think Labour will hold the others though.

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  14. Steve (4,543 comments) says:

    Cosgrove was on The Nation this morning telling us what he would not do (attack on Brownlee)
    How about telling us what you would do Mr double dipper? (Candidate and List)

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  15. David Garrett (6,971 comments) says:

    Clayton the Carpet Inspector was, in my short experience, far and away the nastiest of those on the oppostion benches…Even the witches coven of Dyson and Dalziell didnt come close…

    I used it find it hilarious that a guy of 5′ 3″ sporting a “pine plantation” hair transplant would actually deride other members for their lack and stature and hairstyles! Pretty amazing lack of self insight – even for one of them…

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  16. big bruv (13,698 comments) says:

    David Garrett

    You really should write a tell all book about your time in the house, let the people of NZ know what nasty pieces of work the Labour low life really are.

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