Final Fairfax poll

The final Fairfax Research International poll is at Stuff. I’ve done full results at curiablog.

National is up 1.5% from their last poll, Labour effectively unchanged, Greens down a bit and NZ First at 4.0%. Obviously a very positive result. A caution thought. The level of undecided voters is relatively high at 15.6%, so where they end up can change things significantly. The poll covers the period from Thursday to Monday. I would not take this poll as any reason for complacency over the outcome. Turnout is crucial.

What would a Parliament look like on this poll result, assuming no electorates change hands except Wigram going to Labour.

National

69 seats would have National with 41 electorate MPs and 28 list MPs. All 63 electorate candidates would get elected via the electorate or the list. On top of the 63 electorate candidates, list only candidates Lockwood Smith, Steven Joyce, Jian Yang, Alfred Ngaro, Heather Tanner and Denise Krum would also make it.

Labour

Labour would get reduced to 33 seats from 43. With 22 electorates, this gives them 11 list MPs which would be David Parker, Maryan Street, Sue Moroney, Charles Chauvel, Jacinda Ardern, Andrew Little, Shane Jones, Darien Fenton, Moana Mackey, Rajen Prasad, and Raymond Huo.

Andrew Little would be the only new List MP. Current MPs who would be gone are Carol Beaumont, Kelvin Davis, Carmel Sepuloni, Rick Barker, Stuart Nash and Steve Chadwick

If Labour pick up electorates such as Te Tai Tonga and WCT, then Prasad and Huo would miss out on the list. Likeiwse if Labour lose Rimutaka and Palmie, then Hipkins and Lees-Galloway are gone and Beaumont and Davis would make it in.

Greens

Their caucus would go from nine to 15, with eight new MPs.

They would get in all current MPs plus Eugenie Sage, Jan Logie, Steffan Browning, Denise Roche, Holly Walker, Julie-Anne Genther, Moho Mathers and James Shaw.

Maori Party

On this poll their party vote would only entitle them to one seat, so if they retain all four electorates, an overhang of three seats.

ACT

On this poll (and it is only one poll), John Banks would be the only MP if he wins Epsom.

Mana

On this poll Hone Harawira would be the sole MP.

United Future

Their party vote is too low to be “entitled” to a List MP, so if Peter Dunne wins he would be an overhang MP (which actually helps National)

Parliament would have 124 seats, so 63 would be needed for a Government to have confidence and supply.