NZ First

November 29th, 2011 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

MPs in

Winston Peters, Tracey Martin, Andrew Williams, Richard Prosser, Barbara Stewart Brendan Horan, Denis O’Rourke, Asenati Taylor. Their No 9 candidate Helen Jane Mulford holds the 121st quotient and could come in, but traditionally NZ First does not do so well on specials

MPs out

None

Result

7.5/10.An excellent result for Peters. He capitalised on his opportunities and not only made 5%, but made it easily. He has proven himself the great survivor and NZ First is only the second political party to be elected to an MMP Parliament that did not already have a sitting MP (ACT in 1996 was the first).

The score would match National’s if they had ended up holding the balance of power.

Challenges

The short-term challenge is the caucus. Few of them have significant parliamentary or even political experience. Peters need to put in a place a strong experienced Chief of Staff to help managed them. My pick would be former MP and Party President Doug Woolerton. Rumour has it that Michael Laws is also a contender. Michael’s cunning is second to none, but his relationship with Winston goes through ups and downs.

The longer-term challenges depend on what Winston wants. If his major motivation is revenge on John Key, then he could well be placed to achieve that in 2014 by denying National a third term. If his motivation is to become a Minister again, then his challenge is to convince National and Labour that he can be a stable player.

Peters is 66. I can see him standing again in 2014 when he will be 69, but in 2017 he will be 72 and would be commiting to still be an MP at age 75 if he contested that election. There are two paths ahead for NZ First. One is that Peters remains Leader and an MP indefinitely, and when he goes, NZ First goes.

The second path is that Peters uses the next two terms to build up leadership sucessors such as Andrew Williams and Brendan Horan, with a managed transition heading into maybe 2017. Then Peters gets the ultimate legacy – a party that survives him.

Tags:

25 Responses to “NZ First”

  1. tvb (4,553 comments) says:

    Michael Laws has no management skills whatsoever. He is petulant and nasty. A person in a kind of petrified adolescence. So it will be Doug Woolerton or perhaps Rob Eaddy unless he goes to Peter Dunne., or someone else. Somebody has to broker a detente between Peters and John Key but Key needs to turn down the volume on Peters first.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. virtualmark (1,305 comments) says:

    NZ First is the protest vote. They always have about 3% of the population who are permanently grumpy and befuddled, and vote for that nice Mr Peters (oohh, and doesn’t he dress well Mavis!). That’s NZ First’s natural long-term constituency. The angry and the confused.

    Then, every now and then, there’s a group of disaffected voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for their traditional major party … and so off they toddle to vote for Winnie in order to “send a message”. This time round it was Labour’s turn to shed some protest vote to Winston.

    Ultimately, whether Winston is still there in 3 years time comes down to whether Labour can sort its shit out and re-claim that lost vote. If they can then Winston drops back to his 3% or so of base support and dies another MMP death.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. virtualmark (1,305 comments) says:

    DPF … two comments on your last para.

    Firstly, I doubt that Andrew Williams and/or Brendan Horan have the public appeal or the political nous to keep NZ First above 5%.

    Secondly, I doubt that Winston Peters has any idea of how to build a legacy. The man is by nature an opposer. He is not a constructive influence. As much as he might like to leave a viable NZ First as his legacy he is, ultimately, a one-man party like Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne. Winston is a more naturally gifted politician than either (but … we should probably all be beware of anyone who is naturally suited to politics) and he has carved out a numerically larger support base than either Jim or Peter did.

    But I strongly expect NZ First will die with Winston’s retirement.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. virtualmark (1,305 comments) says:

    The fact that NZ First got 6.8% of the vote brings to mind an excellent quote by Isaac Asimov featured on another blog today … “democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. s.russell (1,649 comments) says:

    I do not believe that Winston cares about anything other than his own gratification. And what he likes best is other people grovelling to him and him infuriating anyone who speaks against him. He will never retire, and does not give a pig’s fart about his party surviving him.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. big bruv (14,217 comments) says:

    My god!, could you imagine Laws working with an idiot like Andrew Williams?

    If he (Laws) did come back it would be to increase Winston’s popularity and media exposure, what ever you think of Laws it is an undeniable fact that when ran Winston’s political life it resulted in Winston being one of the most popular MP’s in NZ.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. sifty (23 comments) says:

    Having met Brendan Horan and spoken at length to someone high up in the Tauranga NZ First campaign management I can confidently say that he is as thick as the proverbial pig shit. No amount of media training and his self promoted “swim suit model good looks that has set many a female heart a flutter” in a flash suit will disguise this fact .

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. RightNow (7,014 comments) says:

    If only there was a cure for Alzheimer’s…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Sam (421 comments) says:

    I spoke to a number of ‘pensioners’ on election day, all of them had voted for NZfirst because Peters had “given us the Gold Card”. That is the proverbial gift that keeps on giving…

    Rightnow – yes indeed: bizarrely, one I spoke to even went as far to say that Peters is the only honest politician amongst the lot of them, because he isn’t afraid to tell it like it is! Not dying out quick enough John….

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    Maybe National should think about a Memorandum of Understanding with NZ First?
    Some sort of relationship could be built up in area where there is common agreement.
    Then after the 2014 election, National could then play off the Greens and NZ First against each other if they were to form a minority government. Issues such as the ETS, Maori seats and the justtice system would come to mind.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. mara (769 comments) says:

    Over the years I’ve observed Peters’ behaviour when he was out of sight of his adoring followers at electioneering gatherings. Hint; we both like a sneaky fag outside the hall. Politics aside, he is a seriously bullying, nasty POS towards his aids and openly contemptuous about his followers, the media and anyone else who is not him. He will rule his Party with an iron fist. I almost pity them all for their wide-eyed naivety. Let the fun begin.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Say Goodbye to Hollywood (461 comments) says:

    I blame Tony Ryall, it’s obvious, he’s doing such a good job with health that the bewildered and slightly confused are continuing to enjoy good health and putting Peters back into power. Bloody do-gooder .

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Richard Prosser probably has the most potential out of all the new NZ First MPs.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. a3catlady (54 comments) says:

    Interestingly enough it would appear his No2 Tracey Martin is on a vengence trip too. Her first FB posting after the election was about vindicating her mother – party Secretary Anne Martin, post Rodney Hides allegations of fraudulent returns. Additional to that there appears to be some delusion that she can continue her local body role and other substantial community roles along with being an MP – watch out for this woman!!!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. RightNow (7,014 comments) says:

    I’ve seen a lot of comments on stuff articles claiming that John Key let Peters back in the door because of the stance he took on the ‘tea tape’, but IMO the media were the real culprits since they leaked the contents to Peters, and really having Winston back in parliament is a wet dream for the media.
    I have a little laugh to myself though, when I think about Winston sharing the opposition benches with Labour. They deserve each other.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. KevinH (1,253 comments) says:

    Brendan Horan came second in Tauranga, proving that good looks go a long way, and Andrew Williams has had a distinquished private sector career that has seen him traverse the European marketplaces . Both men add flavour to an otherwise bland intake of new parliamentarians.
    Notwithstanding that since when was intelligence or intellectual horsepower a requirement for politicians? Politics is a brutal game that requires a thick skin and above all else a singular unyielding world view.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. sthn.jeff (101 comments) says:

    Sorry but Brendan Horan…. evry time I think of him I see the bumbling idiot barely able to read a cue card while doing the weather… perhaps he has improved

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. alwyn (438 comments) says:

    I wonder whether Winston will let any of the new MPs give a maiden speech?
    Last time he was there he took all their speaking slots to make speechs of his own and they never got the chance to make them.
    Talk about a man with an ego, and total scorn for everyone else in his party.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. sifty (23 comments) says:

    kevinh you say that Brendan Horan coming 2nd in Tauranga proves how far good looks can go .. I would have thought that it proved more how f.ing stupid some of the general public can be. Trust me that man is an intellectual lightweight with an inflated sense of self importance.As the saying goes he fell in love with himself at an early age and has remained faithfull ever since.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. sthn.jeff (101 comments) says:

    I just looked at Brendans website and felt a little bit sick…..Calls himself Mr Personality or Mr Sunshine ……

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. sifty (23 comments) says:

    Yes that website is an absolute crackup. He calls himself a company director LOL . A Goldbuyers franchise I would have thought is really little more than a slightly up market cross between a pawn shop and a scrap metal dealer. Winstons list is so bad I am surprised Graham Cappill isnt on it.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Mark (1,502 comments) says:

    The harsh reality is that Winston got almost 6% more party votes than ACT. He is the political cunning of a lizard and made brash look like a rank amateur. Key’s inexperience and questionable advice regarding the teapot saga assuming he took any advice breathed life into the old dog. Key opened the door 1/2 an inch and Winston was in like Flynn. Masterful really.

    We all like to ridicule and lampoon Winston and the people he represents but strangely they do not forget the free public transport, his support for the establishment of Jim Andertons Kiwibank etc. There are some political lessons for Act. Winston has stuck to his message, he keeps the issues he champions very simple, has a feel for what is irritating people about government policy and is very adept at using that to his advantage. He will be a thorn in the side for Key who has the propensity to make mistakes and Winston will be more likely to make those hurt than a weak labour has been able to.

    I did not think he could get there but there you go

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. Tautaioleua (324 comments) says:

    The Samoan communities have embraced their newest addition to New Zealand Parliament, with the rejection of Carmel Sepuloni, and the successful appointment of Asenati Taylor via the list.

    She represents a new cluster of the NZ-Samoan community (young, female, educated, experienced). Her experience is also in rehabilitation and community justice.

    It should be interesting to rate her performance in the house. Samoans have been rather fond of Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters, and he used that very strategically in his campaign (often visiting South Auckland for example).

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. hj (7,142 comments) says:

    Dear dear we hates NZ First. As Mark Sainsbury says: “Winston will keep shaking the tree until something falls out”.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. hj (7,142 comments) says:

    “New Zealand’s change in immigration policy dates back to the early 1990s when the gap in productivity with other nations became pronounced between the years 1970 and 1990. Higher immigration was intended to fix the problem.

    In its report, the SWG claims the move backfired.

    “The policy choice that increased immigration, given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration.”

    The Savings Working Group also underscored the need to remove tax distortions that heavily favoured property investment. Failing the adoption of capital tax, it suggested the only way to reduce the tax distortion on property prices would be “at the very least to reduce taxes on financial assets,” which it identified as the “main investment alternative.”
    http://www.interest.co.nz/kiwisaver/52140/migration-policy-linked-inflated-housing-prices-government-spending-and-low-savings

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote