Roy Morgan and NZ First
November 12th, 2011 at 11:39 am by David FarrarThere is no doubt NZ First has increased its support. It usually does when they get in the news, and ironically as much as Winston loves to pretend there is a media conspiracy against him, they in fact give him and NZ First far more publicity (but not scrutiny) than other parties polling at his level.
So they are up in the polls, but are they on the verge of 5% as Roy Morgan had them? No, or not yet, in my opinion.
Roy Morgan often has had NZ First higher than the other polls. They had them at 4.5% in May 2011, 5% in April 2011, 5.5% in Jan 2011, 4.5% in Sep 2010, 4.5% in Aug 2010, and prior to the last election had them twice at 6.5% in July and Aug 2008.
As always, I recommend looking at the average of the polls. This had them at 2.2% in October and rising to 3.1% in November. So as I said an increase, but still around 50,000 votes short of 5%.
November 12th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Quite agree DPF.
Vote:Moreover, look at the Herald’s results for other nonsensical parties like Maori (understated!), Cannabis, Craig, UF and Harawira. Absolute BS. Peters up, Yes. But to those astronomical heights? NO. Labour and their Klingon followers grasp at staws, other klingons or paper tigers. But they are straws or paper tigers.
November 12th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
A lot of the polls were well out last election in their election polls however. Colmar-Brunton for example had them at just 2.4% in their exit poll-they got over 4%. Roy Morgan funnily enough was one of only two polls to come within 0.5% of what NZF got in their exit poll, so they have prior history of accuracy.
Also, the Roy Morgan isn’t significantly higher than the Herald Digipoll which has them at 3.7% (two weeks out from the election in 2008 Herald Digipoll had them at just 2.1% as a basis of comparison.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
I’d love to know what trick it is that Peters uses which Muldoon passed on to him, that gives him a base that just responds to him no matter what he does. It’s not a single “trick” it’s a whole series of techniques. Stuff like “get yourself known as a crusader” for example which led Peters into the Winebox. I’d love to know what they are since they are clearly good enough to allow him to say and do anything with teflon-like ability to this group of people.
I mean how can you be so blind as to overlook the totality of his career and what he’s done and what that means in terms of the ethical structure behind the man?
What the heck has he done to those people to make them overlook that, would be a good thing to know.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
why doesn’t he simply go away and stop making a mockery of politics in NZ .. it is bad enough without him
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Reid
Vote:Muldoon was trained at Tavistock. British intelligence..All of these people learn mind control techniques so maybe this is what you are referring to?
Muldoon was the first NZ politician to use TV and he certainly used it.
November 12th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Winston on the Charge . Brilliant!!
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
I guess most of the time a vote for a minor party is a wasted vote. Those voters on the fringes must realise it will take a small miracle for their party to enter parliament. Surely in the end the proliferation of small parties only serves to make our political system weaker. To many Indians but no clear chief .
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 3:32 pm
joanna thanks, Tavistock would make sense but what’s the evidence for that?
Happy to look myself if you’d prefer not to post it here, quite understand if not.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
Winston above 5% would be bad news. However, If Epsom votes tactically, and Nat supporters get off their chuffs and vote, we can avoid this disaster. Not that Winston getting in would automatically ensure a labour led government, but having him around making a mockery of the system is just bad news. On the other hand him getting about 4.5 % of the vote is not a total disaster as it would bleed support for labour, but he would still be out. That’s a win win situation
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Vote for Winston: Winston will throw mud at them.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
God voters have short memories. Didn’t he keep us waiting for what 7 weeks in 96 and then in 05 he went with Labour and got the role of Foreign Minister. The list of lies from this guy is decades long. No, no, no.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
ALCP shooting up in the polls!!!!!!!!
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Ref. Winston
What the heck has he done to those people to make them overlook that, would be a good thing to know.
Its not what he has done but what others don’t, won’t or can’t do.
4 conversations with older people in their homes on Friday. None happy with National becuase of things like their grandkids not getting work and staying at school emptying the family pockets, No jobs, no reigning in of spending on local bodies, failure to fix the leaky homes issue in a manner that was fair to those that got caught when its considered that the building rules are the issue especially not treating timber properly.
Losing their families to Aussie, I have met 4 families in the last few weeks gone.
Don’t like Labour harking back to the 30′s. Don’t want a repeat of the last nine years of Labour.
UF doesn’t figure in therir voting and they don’t trust the Greens, seen as flacky.
See Brash as having the right credentials to fix the money issues. Don’t have confidence that English and Key know how.
So, that’s how they see these things and if they don’t want to vote for Lab. or Nat. then their choice is Winston or Don.
They are concerned about NZ
For what its worth this is what they say to me and its what I have been hearing most days for some weeks as I go into peoples homes with my work.
The other interesting thing is the continuing loss of jobs. Yep its still happening around our town and since the RWC finished many of the business people are concerned aboiut the retrenchment in business.
The issue really is that the Nats. have spent 3 years doing not much in terms of firing up NZ business. Everything is blamed for doing nothing. Thats about as feeble as it can be.
Sure stuff has gone wrong etc. BUT, the test of leadership is not how popular you can be soothing peoples problems but what you do to move on and make up for that circumstance. Thats what Key and Co haven’t done.
Its just been carry on as usual.
Dismissing the Task Force Report before it was even printed is the best example that one can give of the above problem.
Oh fuck we have a problem but just lets manage it, we won’t do anything to go forward and keep growing our cake, reducing our expenses and making changes that will help business, (which of course is the only income producer), we might upset someone.
Well tough we are talking about our nation and its survival with a decent standard of living.
When something goes wrong in my business as it did the other day, I don’t spend forever whinging and moaning wondering what I should do, blaming everything in the process.
Nope.
I take stock find out what needs to be done, get it going and then make sure the rest of the business is keeping on as it should be. Working harder TO MINIMSE THE EFFECT OF THE DISASTER.
Could you say the the NZ. Govt have done that given the people leaving NZ. Obviously not.
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 7:20 pm
DPF said, “as much as Winston loves to pretend there is a media conspiracy against him, they in fact give him and NZ First far more publicity (but not scrutiny) than other parties polling at his level”
Sadly David, printing the inane utterances of that sad little man sells papers. When he attacks them they print that too, and sell more papers. In biology this is called a symbiotic relationship!
Vote:November 12th, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Even if Winston gets back in. So what .
Vote:A nine day wonder.
John key showing real leadership has already told him he is not wanted.
Along with Mana they are just going to be a couple of seat warmers.
I suspect in a few months Winston will get bored and hardly turn up in the house.
November 13th, 2011 at 6:57 am
The Government’s financial statement for the three months to September, issued on Thursday, shows why this is such an important issue.
Crown revenue was $1.4 billion lower than it was three years ago while Crown expenses were $2.2 billion higher.
Gross Crown debt has blown out from $31.9 billion to $76.3 billion over the same three-year period.
The operating balance before gains and losses deficit of $2.5 billion was lower than the same period last year because the 2010 figures include a loss from state-owned-enterprises and Crown entities. This was mainly due to EQC losses associated with the first Christchurch earthquake.
The largest expenditure item was social security and welfare, which accounted for $5.5 billion or 31.9 per cent of total Crown spending in the latest three-month period.
The largest items in this group were NZ Super, $2.4 billion, the family tax credit, $600 million, the domestic purposes benefit, $500 million, and the invalid benefit, $300 million.
The first of the post-World War II baby boomers were born in 1946 and reach 65 this year. There will be a huge increase in the number of retirees over the next few decades and NZ Super expenditure will increase dramatically.
NZ Super is forecast to cost $9.9 billion in the current fiscal year, and a long-term forecast by the Treasury predicts that it will cost $14.9 billion in 2020, $28.1 billion in 2030 and $47.0 billion in 2040.
Vote:November 13th, 2011 at 11:16 am
Reid,
Vote:Muldoon spent two years in the UK..I think in the 40s..Note John Key also has significant gaps in his CV and surprising and difficult to explain leaps in status.
Try Greg Hallett’s web site. Some think he is seriously ”out there” but if he was so harmless and off track , why would his books be banned here? They are available in other parts of the world , in English , in German etc.
November 13th, 2011 at 11:06 pm
David, could you compare Colin Craig’s poll results in the Super City election compared to his results, or would Steven Joyce not like that information widely known?
Vote:November 15th, 2011 at 1:08 am
Some people moved to NZ First prior to their surge in the polls and media coverage. I myself did that (and electorate voted National) because John Key is an absolute liar and acts like a little child. That’s not the type of leadership I want. I also don’t trust National and have voted NZ First on the basis they will bring transparency and accountability to the Government which is lacking. There has been minimal coverage about the APEC summit and the FTA signed and that is disgusting. Winnie will be back and Johnny boy should be afraid, very very afraid. I think NZ First will get 10%, if you look at previous elections they have had a bad election and a good election. This is an analysis of every election since 1996 when MMP was introduced.
Vote:November 15th, 2011 at 2:34 am
Liz……three words…Owen Glenn affair.
Winnies the biggest liar NZ politics has seen in a long time…and the most blatant.
Vote: