The minor parties
November 1st, 2011 at 11:57 am by David FarrarOver at Stuff, I note party lists are due in today at midday, and look at all the minor parties I think will be contesting. They are:
- ACT
- Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
- Conservative Party of New Zealand
- Libertarianz
- Mana
- Maori Party
- New Zealand First Party
- The Alliance
- The Greens
- The New Zealand Democratic Party for Social Credit
- United Future New Zealand
I give a paragraph on each and what I think would be a good and a poor result for them
Related posts:
- The registered parties for 2008
- Minor Parties since 1954
- Minor Parties
- Do minor parties do better in the election campaign?
November 1st, 2011 at 12:30 pm
DPF – you talk in your article about percentages of the vote each party would require to meet various levels of success.
Just to get my head around it, just roughly how many votes is 1% of the vote?
[DPF: Depends on turnout but around 25,000]
Vote:November 1st, 2011 at 12:38 pm
So Winny at No. 1 on NZ first.
Vote:November 1st, 2011 at 1:07 pm
Of all of those only two or possible three look likely to hold their position or improve.
Greens look comfortable to get more vote and more seats than last time.
Vote:United Future look comfortable to maintain their place but could easily improve, every gain a bonus.
Mana are less comfortable to hold and less likely to improve (seats) but both are quite possible.
November 1st, 2011 at 1:41 pm
The way National are going in this campaign they will be a minor party at the current run rate.
Vote:I reckon they will have lost 5% of their support since the announcement by Goff of the super & attacks on Asett Sales.
I still reckon we will have a Labour/Green Govt, as much as I hate to say it. If this looks like it will happen I will vote Green as the country will be f&%$#d so we may as well get it over & done with.
Goff did ok in the debate last night, better than what I thought he would do. I think it was a tie at the end. That will get him a few extra votes.
Piss poor opening week for the Nats, time to attack Labour spending plans.
November 1st, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Wow Farrar, you clearly rate the Conservatives chances-2% is a very high amount for an average-bad result for such a new party, myself I think even reaching 1% would be a good result for them factoring all that in. Any opinion on whether you think Colin Craig will win Rodney?
Vote:November 1st, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Any thoughts on what would happen if Colin Craig won Rodney? I’m not in the Rodney Electorate but I am will be giving my party vote to the Conservative Party
Vote:November 1st, 2011 at 8:34 pm
You would think the Conservative Party’s chances hinge on Colin Craig winning Rodney. Colin Craig doesn’t have any profile outside of Auckland so I don’t expect they’ll get anything significant in the party vote.
Vote:November 1st, 2011 at 11:37 pm
The Neo Conservatives or should it be the Christian Conservatives are a fraud!! They have to merge with two other parties just to get 500 members and one of those parties has corrupt Chinese businessman involved!! The Christian Conservatives are playing with fire with their link to the New Citizen Party. How much has Colin Craig received from May Wang!!!! as a donation!!!
I see Kevin Campbell is to be number 10 on their list. Shouldn’t people be reminded of these http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/03/a_suggestion_for_kevin.html & http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/01/john_the_jew.html
The Christian Conservatives are bonkers getting this lunatic involved!!! Bonkers I say! He’s certifiable! Ha ha ha. Good luck Neo Cons and Colin Craig you are going to need it. I’m still voting national.
Vote:November 2nd, 2011 at 11:47 am
Pete, your bias is showing again. Gareth Hughes just needs to convince half his voters from last time to vote Chauvel and Dunne is done. Chauvel has also had a high profile within recent times with his role in the compromise on the retrospective legislation (which DPF has done his best to mitigate, lol).
Shazza, considering that Conservatives have polled 3.4% (on a rival poll to DPF’s) I think he is being conservative (lol).
Rodney is an interesting electorate. Christine Rose of Labour seems to be the strongest candidate Labour has had in the seat for a while. (look at the Auckland City Rodney Ward results) Mark Mitchell has come through an acrimonious selection battle (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10721686) Colin Craig’s father Ross Craig has been a councillor for the Rodney Council for 20 years, until it was merged into the Super City. Name recognition is very important for Electoral contests.
There is also a poll (by another of Curia’s rivals) that Colin is the front runner for Rodney. (http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/Material/110915%20Research%20Summary.pdf)
Could this be why David Farrar is ignoring a potential coalition party for National without the credibility stains that ACT has?
Radman, your whole comment is bonkers. The Conservatives had 1,700 members before the merger was announced. Colin Craig has not received a donation from May Wang, probably because she has been embroiled in legal troubles and Colin would not want the negative publicity. Kevin Campbell while writing a poor comment on a blog (DPF has done some shockers too, his last one on Taito-Phillip Field comes to mind), is a massive asset to any party. He has an extremely good grasp of policy and is a professional recruiter.
You sound like a pissed off ACT voter. A lot of them have taken the Conservative Party as an insult.
Disclaimer: I am the Clutha-Southland candidate for the Conservative Party of New Zealand. All views contained within are purely my own.
Vote:November 2nd, 2011 at 11:52 am
Besides, the comment is essentially true. John Key’s mother Ruth fled Austria to escape persecution from the Nazi’s (she did have extensive Jewish ancestory). Seems like an smear from an old rival for the ACT Board.
Vote:November 2nd, 2011 at 12:03 pm
http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-within-striking-distance—poll/tabid/419/articleID/231470/Default.aspx
Vote:November 2nd, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Good Post Radman..anyone willing to take dodgy Chinese money is likely to strike trouble at some point.
Vote: