Conservatives
December 1st, 2011 at 12:32 pm by David FarrarMPs in
None
Result
5.0/10.
The Conservatives did not get into Parliament but they attracted over 55,000 votes gaining 2.8% of the vote. This exceeded expectations for a first time party with no current MPs, and wasn’t included in any of the debates. Obviously it helped that their leader, Colin Craig, could fund their campaign, rumoured to cost $1 million.
Craig came second in Rodney but only attracted 22%, miles behind Mark Mitchell who got 53%.
The Conservative tag line was “Every vote counts” which is especially ironic as none of their 55,000 votes counted. It is unknown how many people only voted for them because they believed Colin Craig would win Rodney, and hence their votes would count. I debunked the Rodney poll they pushed out, in this post.
Challenges
A major challenge for them in 2014, will be to convince people that a vote for them won’t be a wasted vote. No one in their right mind will ever again believe a poll commissioned by the Conservatives purporting to show them ahead, unless the methodology and questions are fully revealed.
A related challenge will be how to maintain momentum over three years. Not being in Parliament makes it very hard to gain publicity.
There is definitely room in the political spectrum for a conservative party. IF NZ First had failed to make it back, they could have picked up a significant portion of their vote. It is hard to see how the Conservatives can make 5% in 2014, especially with the fear of wasted vote.
Hence there is much logic to exploring a merger with John Banks. Banks seat of Epsom means they would gain seats, even if they get less than 5%. Banks has the profile and the seat, while Craig has the money and the activist base. But I am unsure that Colin Craig would accept any sort of shared leadership.
Tags: Conservative Party
December 1st, 2011 at 12:38 pm
ACT policies are not equal to the Conservatives, so I don’t see that happening.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Stating the obvious but they need to challenge an electorate in 2014. Tauranga?
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Perhaps, rather than latch on to another party, with all its inherent implications and expectations, ACT should forget about any merger (which would seem to be expediency – not policy) and just concentrate on building a credible brand again.
If I was Craig, why should I let “Stumpy” Banks stand on my shoulders.
Errr, metaphorically, that is.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 12:58 pm
It’s okay, by 2014 MMP will be fixed so that there’ll be a PV vote transfer if you vote for someone who doesn’t make the threshold, and it won’t be wasted votes.
/if only.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:06 pm
It would most likely kill the Conservatives if they joined with ACT and John Banks. None of their voters would be particularly happy about that and would probably not vote for them again.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:15 pm
If MMP is revised and the threshold lowered to say 2.5% they would have three seats with 2.8%.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:18 pm
To repeat, ACT and the conservatives are a very poor fit. The conservatives are a far closer fit with NZ First, Colin should work on that angle, Winston has to retire at some point. However the issue of sharing power with Winston…it ain’t going to happen, while he’s alive.
I’d say that there’s room for a socially conservative party quite distinct from the economically liberal one, and the conservatives are not economically liberal in general. They’re a sort of “Colin First” without the miasma of corruption that hangs over NZF.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:18 pm
I agree Lucia.
Why bother. Better to build on a firm foundation, build a party base and go forward from there. If CG can see it through, I predict the Conservatives could be a force – providing, of course, they actually manage to post some policy instead of broadly stated aims such as these http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/policies.php
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Johnboy,
I’ve been wondering if a lowering of the threshold is on the cards, that’s why it’s important to kill off the Conservatives now.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Colin Craig would be mad to go anywhere near ACT and he knows it. Not only due to the very obvious Policy differences but Colin would be wise to only become involved with people who are competent. Banks however, is another matter altogether, competent AND conservative.
Vote:Do you know for sure he’d want a leadership position within the Conservatives? He could well be happy to just be the MP for Epsom.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Surely you are not suggesting that the Blue team lead by their able spinmeister are trying to abort the Conservatives at birth Lucia?
Don’t they need a new playmate for the 2014 innings?
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:28 pm
I always thought that poll in Rodney seemed a bit dodgy.
Seems that not all christian fundamentalists believe in telling the truth.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:39 pm
…”Seems that not all christian fundamentalists believe in telling the truth.”…..
As long as it advances the cause anything is permitted.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Johnboy,
If it looks like a duck …
JamesS and Nasska,
Or their polling methodology was stuffed. Maybe they should be hiring DPF next time around.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Shouldn’t they be called the religous party?
This is like the communists calling themselves the greens.
A wolf in sheeps clothing. Not that there is anything wolfish about god-botherers, they are merely annoying .
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Wreck 1080: I always thought the Greens were Communists in disguise!
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Wreck,
Only if their purpose was to make everyone religious.
There are many religious people in both National and Labour and no one calls them a religious party, even though Phil Goff even said that Labour party policy was Christian.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Lucia: I would think it would be to Nationals advantage to have a more extreme party on their right of whatever conviction to capture the farther right vote leaving National to concentrate on the centre right and stop a re-born Labour Party from getting them back.
As ACT seems stuffed the Conservatives would be the obvious choice. Why destroy them?
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 4:26 pm
What is the evidence to support the idea that Conservative is a “Christian party”? I see none….and having met him a couple of times, if Craig is a fundy nut he disguises that fact very well…
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 4:52 pm
I think this is just plain old Nat spin from DPF. 2.8% from a first outing when the party only formed 3 months ago is outstanding.
Many, many people voted for them knowing their vote wasn’t going to count.
Where will they pick up another 2.2%? Well quite obviously from National, a large chunk of soft Nat voters (farmers especially) live socially conservative family lives, oppose the ridiculous ETS and smacking bill, support one law for all and are looking for a party with the principles the Nats used to have.
The Conservative are the 4th largest party by members and 5th largest by votes, there is no reason that won’t continue to grow.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 4:55 pm
What is the evidence to support the idea that Conservative is a “Christian party”?
That’s an interesting question. Itr’s not promoted as a “Christian party” but there are obvious connections with the Christian lobby.
Party policies are fairly closely aligned with Christian principles. The party rated 87% compatible with Famiklie First ideals.
The Kiwi Party and Larry Baldock have merged into the Conservative PArry, Baldock being 3 on the list.
So while the Conservative Party may not be a ‘Christian party’ it seems to have significant Christian influences and connections.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 6:54 pm
“While Craig says that the Conservative Party does not intend to “legislate morality”, he is a Christian and does not personally support homosexuality or common-law marriages.”
With beliefs like that Pete he could attract a few Islamic folks to his party. Now that would be lots of fun.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 7:25 pm
I just had the belief the Conservative party was strong on religion.
I don’t recall how I formed that opinion but it was probably something i read in the news .
Maybe there were some in the media trying to portray them so.
I might take a second look at them for the next election.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 8:23 pm
I think your take on this is exceedingly negative. The Conservatives did very well to pick up 2.8% of the vote as a first time party. If Winston retires and New Zealand First dies or merges with them they would have a decent chance of getting into power next election. They would be mad to have anything to do with Act or even John Banks who has stupidly tainted himself with their vile rightwing policies for the rest of his life.
“As long as it advances the cause anything is permitted.”
No, that’s the Marxists, not the Christians. You know, the people who tortured and murdered tens of millions of Christians in the twentieth century.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 10:46 pm
Act had some terribly incompetent people during the election campaign, that thankfully were gotten rid off during the campaign, but after the damage had been done.
Vote:December 1st, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Iv’e got to say that it seems a bit ridiculous to be predicting now how popular CG’s party will be in Nov 2014.
Vote:But I predict this: a deal with Act would be a suicide pill. The public does NOT like these grubby deals. Besides, the threshold rule will probably be changed by then anyway.
December 2nd, 2011 at 1:15 am
They would be mad to have anything to do with Act or even John Banks who has stupidly tainted himself with their vile rightwing policies for the rest of his life.
Just what were these “vile right wing polices” ACT are supposed to have had…? Freedom?…choice? …individual liberty and rights protected and respected? prosperity via hard work in a free market?
The bastards!
No, that’s the Marxists, not the Christians. You know, the people who tortured and murdered tens of millions of Christians in the twentieth century.
While Marxist’s and other authoritarians did indeed murder hundreds of millions in the 20th century, the vast majority of those were NOT Christians…who themselves murdered many millions themselves over the last 2000 odd years…
Vote: