Archive for December, 2011
Give way to the lions
Wednesday, December 21st, 2011 at 10:00 amThis could be a new road safety initiative for New Zealand. place lions on random roads, and watch the average speed drop!
This male lion is around three years old.
These three lions don’t normally live here, so once the resident lions learn of the interlopers there could be a gang war.
Quite beautiful.
We’ve been told to keep our rooms locked because otherwise baboons will happily come in and throw their shit around – literally.
You have to feel sorry for the waterbucks having a target like that as a natural feature.
A big beak for a small fellow.
Tags: DPF, South AfricaWinning a third term for National – Part III
Wednesday, December 21st, 2011 at 9:00 amPart III is not that different to Part II – rejuvenation again – but of caucus, not Cabinet.
Labour failed to rejuvenate their caucus in 2005. They did a much better job in 2008, and that strengthened their caucus considerably. They failed in 2011, protecting incumbent MPs with the result being the only new List MP is Andrew Little.
National did not rejuvenate greatly in 2011. There are three new List MPs, and six new electorate MPs, but this is out of a caucus of almost 60.
A caucus needs to have a balance of MPs. Not all MPs are going to be Ministers, and many MPs whom do not become Ministers still provide excellent value to their constituents and to Parliament through work on select committees. However service in Parliament as a backbench MP should not be seen as a life-time work (as it has been for Labour’s Ross Robertson) but something you do for a limited period.
It is essential that for 2014, National clearly indicates to caucus that MPs will not be automatically be given winnable spots, and that new aspiring candidates will be ranked higher than some MPs if their regions back them strongly enough. The Party Board and leadership need to send out unequivocally clear signals in 2013 about the 2014 list, so that MPs can make an informed choice about whether they retire with dignity, or wish to risk putting themselves forward for list ranking, and possibly ending up with an unwinnable ranking.
With electorate MPs it is of course between them and their electorate, if they stand again. The hierarchy get little say in this – especially in the stronger seats. It is worth noting though that incumbent MPs have faced challenges. John Key, Judith Collins and formerly John Carter all became MPs by defeating an incumbent for a nomination.
This might all sound rather negative talking about Ministers and MPs needing to “go” the week after an historic victory. That is deliberate. Winning a third term will be far more challenging than winning a second term. There should be no complacency that the popularity of the Prime Minister will guarantee a third term. I am pointing out the need for rejuvenation now, so that it is not seemed aimed at any individual Minister or MP. It isn’t. I don’t have a list of whom I think should or should not stay on past 2014. What I’m talking about is the need to recognise early on that winning a third term will require some people to put the overall good of the National Party before their individual desires.
Tags: NationalGeneral Debate 21 December 2011
Wednesday, December 21st, 2011 at 8:00 amIn the jungle …
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 9:28 pmFor the third day running we had a go at getting a sighting of the lioness who was protecting her cubs. As you head into the bush you do not feel particularly safe, as the vehicle is literally making its own path in, and even in an emergency would only be able to reverse out slowly.
The biggest protection is being in the vehicle – not that it would protect you if a lion attacked, but that unless you stand up in it, they generally do not recognise you as prey.
After a couple of minutes in this spot, we heard a loud growl and looking to our left was mama lion.
She kept watching us but not moving, and a couple of her cubs popped their heads up also. Being so close to a lioness and her cubs is cool, but you also know that is when they are second most aggressive – only more aggressive when mating.
We did look up these birds as we saw them, but I didn’t note the names down.
A less submerged hippo.
And a hippo family.
We drove into a huge herd of buffalo – around 300 or so.
Unlike in NZ when you honk at cattle on the road, you just patiently wait for them to move.
Another rhino.
We were really lucky to see some of these – the African Wild Dogs. These are very rare – sometimes people will go for years without seeing them.
They look quite cute there, but they are very efficient killers. Around 80% of their hunts end in kills, compared to 30% for lions. They kill by disemboweling and then will feed their young later by regurgitating meat up for them.
They have the strongest bite relative to their mass of any extant mammal carnivore.
I love the giraffes. They are so, well African, and just dominate an scene they are in.
After the morning drive on the third day I commented to the guides that I had yet to see any elephants. Now by pure coincidence this elephant walked past the lodge while we were at lunch. How is that for room service!
He had a drink from our pool.
After lunch we went out and found another elephant – a slightly bigger one.
The guide had said that if you are on foot hippos are probably the most dangerous, but elephants are the most dangerous in a vehicle, as they could over turn it easily. Well this elephant got a bit snarly with us and did a minor charge of two to three metres towards us. I didn’t wet my pants, but lets say I did turn somewhat white.
Later on we came across a leopard and two mating lions. The lions mate every 15 minutes so you can often hear them. As were were heading towards them the vehicle got stuck in an unseen ditch, so we all had to get out, while it was freed. Now mating lions can be very aggressive, so there was a degree of nervousness about being out of the vehicle as if they see you out of it, they may regard you as prey. The gun was ready to go, just in case.
As it happens the lions went away. We saw the leopard briefly, but not in time for a photo. Have now seen all of the big five, but I count it as four and a half as I only saw the leopard’s arse.
Every evening just before sunset we stop and have some drinks. Very nice.
And after the sun sets we spend an hour or so using a spotlight to spot more beasts, usually getting home around 8 pm for dinner.
Tags: DPF. South AfricaThe afternoon track
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 4:00 pmWe go out in the afternoons from 4 pm to 8 pm. It’s still really hot at 4 pm, but by around 6 pm is starting to cool nicely. It’s a wonderful feeling driving through African bush in a land cruiser with the sun shining, wind blowing, all the noises and sights of Africa to observe and listen to.
A shy wee turtle.
Who then happily took off, or crawled off.
Mr Hippo.
He’s a big one.
See that log in the background?
It’s not a log, in case you try and sit on it.
We had lunch next to these three crocodiles. Luckily they stayed in the water.
But this is what happens just after a crocodile tries to eat a bird.
A couple of members of the new Labour front-bench, I’m sorry I mean a couple of hyenas
And in case you can’t tell, that hyena is eating a dead baby elephant. You won’t believe how much noise they make eating either.
They would not have killed the elephant themselves.
Tags: DPF, South AfricaI agree with Catherine Delahunty
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 12:00 pmNever thought I would be saying this. Catherine blogs:
I am concerned by media reports that the Ministry of Education is considering taking off boards of trustees the role of hiring their school’s principal.
Rumours about such a significant proposal should not be swirling around in the media without a confirmation or denial from the Ministry. School boards and parents should be formally notified if this change is really on the table.
Prior to the election the National Party gave no signal that the Ministry would be taking over this role. It wasn’t mentioned in their policy.
The Government’s rhetoric around education is extremely contradictory at the moment. One minute National says parents need more choice via charter schools and the next it’s taking away choice from communities by removing the power of boards of trustees to appoint their own principal.
Giving local communities a degree of control over their school was central to the Tomorrow’s Schools reforms. I haven’t seen any evidence that the hiring of principals is too difficult a task for schools. It is more likely that the Government wants to make principals answer directly to them rather than the kids and parents in their local community.
I would be amazed if National is considering any such move, and the story linked to quotes various teacher politicians as their sources, so it is probably just scare-mongering.
But I am glad to see the Greens support school boards being able to appoint their own principals. I hope this means they also support school boards being able to manage their own budgets, decide on their own property needs, hire their own staff and pay them what they think is appropriate for that school?
Because why would you say the board is good enough to appoint their own principal, but not to manage their own budget?
Tags: EducationVaclav Havel RIP
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 11:00 amThis death is truly one to be mourned.
Havel died aged 75. He was one of the most inspiring freedom fighters of our generation. He fought communist rule of his country for 20 years and then in 1989 became the last President of Czechoslovakia, later serving as President of the Czech Republic and seeing it enter the EU.
When one thinks of the term that the pen is mightier than the sword, I often think of Havel.
Tags: RIP, Vaclav HavelComparing front benches
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 10:43 amI thought I’d do a ‘quick and dirty’ analysis of the Labour front bench vs the National front bench based on individual electoral performance.
1. David Shearer holds Mt Albert with an impressive personal majority (23rd highest majority in the country) and took a face-saving 37% of party vote for Labour
2. Grant Robertson holds Wellington Central, but Labour took a huge hit in the party vote (finishing third behind National and the Greens)
3. David Parker holds no seat and barely made a difference in Epsom even at a strategic level (15.5% of party vote for Labour). It also must have hurt having to tell voters to vote for the National candidate.
4. Jacinda Ardern has now failed multiple times to win a seat. She couldn’t even get back the Labour stronghold of Auckland Central even with strategic voting by the Greens… scary to think that Tizard can hold that seat but not the anointed Jacinda. The Labour party vote in Auckland Central was rather low as well (25.4% – Greens just behind Labour on 22%)
5. David Cunliffe holds a pretty good personal majority (over 5000) and, like Shearer, recorded 37% for the party vote in New Lynn
6. Clayton Cosgrove. Labour website stillsays Clayton holds Waimakariri but he actually lost it to Kate Wilkinson. Clayton returned 23.4% for Labour party vote
7. Shane Jones failed to win a seat again but did return one of the more respectable party votes for Labour (41.5%)
8. Nanaia Mahuta won Hauraki-Waikato again (by over 6500) and recorded the fifth highest party vote for Labour at 46.5%.
So, in all not exactly a stunning front bench as far as results. Based on electoral performance, the Cunliffe/Mahuta combo certainly is more formidable than Shearer/Robertson but Shearer and Robertson are the ‘nice guys’.
Now let’s have a look at National’s front bench:
1. John Key recorded a massive electorate vote (won by over 21,000) and party vote at 65.8%
2. Bill English also recorded a formidable electorate vote (won by over 16,000) and party vote at 62.9%
3. Gerry Brownlee won Ilam by over 13,000 and a very respectable party vote at 60.4%
4. Steven Joyce, doesn’t hold a seat and didn’t stand in one in 2011. However, as the Campaign head could claim the 48% party vote across the country
5. Judith Collins won the Papakura seat by almost 10,000 and captured over 59% of the party vote
6. Tony Ryall won Bay of Plenty by a massive 17,000+ and captured over 67% of the party vote
7. Hekia Parata lost Mana but is closing the gap in a traditionally Labour-held seat. Recorded an increase in the National party vote to a reasonable 42%
8. Chris Finlayson is a List MP. At an electorate level he only captured 33% of the party vote for National but this was an increase from 2008. Annette King proved herself once again to be a formidable opponent at electorate level.
Both front benches have a mix of electorate and list MPs, however based on the last election it is easy to surmise that National’s front bench have (as a whole) also done the work at the electoral level (even those only seeking the party vote).
Tags: front bench, jadis, key, Robertson, Shearer
Go Shane Jones
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 10:00 amI’m liking Shane Jones on the front bench of Labour.
First he says:
Labour MP Shane Jones says his party has to realise that National has the numbers to push through state asset sales, and he will not criticise iwi which wish to invest in them.
Yesterday Mr Jones said that although Labour opposed state asset sales they were now inevitable and iwi wanting to invest in them for commercial reasons should not be pilloried.
He indicated a more pragmatic stance on the issue was ahead as Labour sought to re-build its links with business and enterprises.
I suspect Labour may make the mistake of trying to refight the 2011 election in 2014. I doubt asset sales will be an issue in 2014. They will have occurred, and the sky will not have fallen in. Prices would not have gone up beyond normal, and the only difference is we’ll have less debt, lower dividends plus lower interest payments on the reduced debt and 100,000+ new shareholders in them. I doubt National will promise any further part-sales in 2014, and most people will wonder what the fuss was about.
Anyway today Shane has also said:
Labour’s Shane Jones is back on the front bench and signalling his intention to shake things up by championing mining for job-starved regions.
Jones was one of the winners in Labour’s refresh yesterday, returning to the front bench after a fall from grace over revelations he charged blue movies to his ministerial credit card while a minister in the Helen Clark government.
His return signals his rehabilitation is complete and he is being lined up by new leader David Shearer to take on NZ First leader Winston Peters, who will square off with Labour from the Opposition front benches.
Jones picked up the regional development, associate finance and Maori economic development portfolios and he said yesterday unemployment in provincial New Zealand, responsible for other social ills, would be his big focus.
That meant weighing up job opportunities in “the extractive industries”, including mining, against the party’s environmental message.
Excellent. This is looking to be a far less ideological front bench – and that is a good thing.
Tags: Labour, Shane JonesWinning a third term for National – Part II
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 9:00 amIn Part I, I talked about the need for ongoing policy reform, and for the Government not just to aspire to be better administrators than Labour, but also driving a better policy agenda. If you try to compete just on being better administratoes, then eventually people think why not try that other lot.
In Part II I want to talk about Ministerial rejuvenation. After National first got elected in 2008, I pondered what Labour did wrong in their latter years, and what National may need to do to get a third term and maybe even the holy grail of a 4th term.
One of Clark’s mistakes was she left ministerial rejuvenation too late. Halfway through their third term and the Cabinet was still dominated by the same names – Clark, Cullen, Anderton, Goff, Maharey, Mallard, Hodgson, King, Dyson, Dalziel.
I sketched out that with a ministry of around 24 (National) Ministers one should be looking at rejuvenation of around 25% at regular intervals. The first 25% by the beginning of the second term, the second 25% by the end of the second term, and a third 25% around halfway through the third term – and in that third tranche you may even have a leadership succession.
It is important to stress that when one talks about ministerial rejuvenation, this is not saying that incumbent Ministers are performing badly, and their successors will be better than them. In fact new Ministers often do struggle initially compared to more experienced Ministers – one reason why you do rejuvenation gradually. But have no doubt about it – New Zealanders will not generally keep voting for the same line up election after election. The media and your opponents paint you as ired and out of ideas, and labels do stick. Plus it is correct that new Ministers will sometimes bring new ideas and energy to a portfolio.
Now to date, the Key Government is pretty much on schedule, in terms of what I see as the ideal pace of rejuvenation. Seven of the 24 Ministers are new, as in not there at the beginning of the 49th Parliament – they are Hekia Parata, Nathan Guy, Craig Foss, Amy Adams, Chris Tremain, Jo Goodhew and Chester Borrows.
But I do believe to enhance National’s chances of a third term, there will need to be a reshuffle before the 2014 election. Towards the end of 2013 some of those who have been Ministers since 2008 should consider following in the foot stops of Simon Power and Wayne Mapp and getting out while on top. Their party will thank them for it, even though they personally could be quite capable of continuing on. Ideally they should even be prepared to spend their final 12 months in Parliament on the backbenches, so that new Ministers can come in before the election.
It may be tempting to think hey let’s wait until after the election, and then do a reshufffle. The problem is there is no guarantee you will get that third term.
If National can go into the 2014 election with around half its Ministry being new faces (as in not original 2008 Ministers), then its chances of winning are enhanced. Of course you need more than just ministerial rejuvenation, but it is a key component of it.
The reasons I raise the issue early, is because the best rejuvenation is that done voluntarily. The PM needs to be very clear to Ministers that a warrant today does not mean they are automatically going to be Ministers if there is a third term, or even for all of this term.
Five years as a Minister is a lot better than most MPs achieve. Stepping down after five years or so should not be seen as a bad thing, but as Simon Power showed us – getting out on top.
Tags: NationalGeneral Debate 20 December 2011
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 8:00 amBattle at Kruger
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 7:47 amI was reading up about buffalo after seeing some, and how they were often quite altruistic. That lead me to this story about an amazing eight minute video shot in 2005 called Battle at Kruger.
You see the lions sitting in wait on the small group of buffalo. As they get close, they pounce and the lions chase a couple of adult buffalo and a young buffalo. One of the lions tackles the young buffalo knocking him into the water. Three or four lions start mauling him and pulling him out of the water.
At this stage a crocodile grabs the young buffalo, who becomes the meant in a tug-of-war sandwich between lions and the crocodile. Eventually the lions win and drag the buffalo onshore.
Just as they start their meal, well have you ever seen a film where the cavalry charge in and save the day? Just watch this video. Incredible sights and amazing someone was there to record it.
Tags: South Africa, You TubeLabour’s new front bench
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 7:00 amThe details are here.
I’m somewhat amazed that Jacinda has been put ahead of David Cunliffe into Spot No 4. Good God, if she had actually won back Auckland Central, I can only imagine they would have made her Governor-General.
Don’t let anyone think I don’t rate Jacinda’s abilities. From before she entered Parliament I was sure she would be front bench some day, and maybe deputy leader or higher. I’m just not sure what has been achieved in her first term, that would have you at No 4. When you compare what National’s No 4 Steven Joyce has achieved both outside and inside Parliament, it seems a mismatch.
Nevertheless it is a huge opportunity for Jacinda. If she performs well, she will be a strong contender for Deputy Leader, when Grant becomes Leader.
It is interesting that while the lineup is fresh in terms of MP experience, three of the most senior members are all former Prime Ministerial staffers for Helen Clark – the deputy leader, the No 4 and the chief whip.
Cunliffe against Joyce in Economic Development is a good choice. Should be some spirited jousts.
Cosgrove gets SOEs and Trade. Will be nice to have a Trade Spokesperson who sounds like they think it is a good thing.
The addition of Jones into the front bench is smart, but as usual his portfolios are lightweight. Will we see more than a press release a month from him?
Mahuta in Education is interesting as she will be up against Parata.
Interesting reversal of fortune for Sue Moroney. She had been given the heavyweight education portfolio and was the third highest ranked (effective) list candidate. But now she is out of the shadow cabinet entirely.
The biggest winners:
- Jacinda Ardern +15
- Nanaia Mahuta +12
- Chris Hipkins +8
- Shane Jones +7
- Phil Twyford +6
- William Sio +6
- Clare Curran +5
- Darien Fenton +4
The biggest losers:
- Ruth Dyson from 7 to unranked
- Parekura Horomia from 11 to unranked
- Sue Moroney from 13 to unranked
- Moana Mackey from 18 to unranked
Labour’s Shadow Cabinet vs National’s Cabinet is:
- 13 elect mps and 7 list mps vs 14 elect mps and 6 list mps
- 13 men and 7 women vs 14 men and 6 women
- 16 European, 2 Maori, 0 Asian, 2 Pacific vs 18 European and 2 Maori
- 2 in 30s, 6 in 40s, 11 in 50s, 1 in 60s vs 9 in 40s, 10 in 50s, 1 in 60s
- 70% North Island vs 70% North Island
- entered Prlt on average 10.8 years ago vs 10.3 years ago
Not a huge difference between the demographics of the Shadow Cabinet and Cabinet. For the front benches:
- 4 elect mps and 4 list mps vs 5 elect mps and 4 list mps
- 6 men and 2 women vs 6 men and 3 women
- 6 European, 2 Maori vs 7 European and 2 Maori
- 1 in 30s, 4 in 40s, 3 in 50s, 1 in 60s vs 3 in 40s, 6 in 50s
- 75% North Island vs 78% North Island
- entered Prlt on average 7.8 years ago vs 10 years ago
Also fairly similar in terms of demographics. This is quite a change from the last Parliament where Labour were much older and been around much longer, plus had many more women in their top ranks.
Tags: LabourKim Jong Il RIP
Tuesday, December 20th, 2011 at 1:51 amThe Herald reports:
Kim Jong Il, the mercurial and enigmatic North Korean leader whose iron rule and nuclear ambitions dominated world security fears for more than a decade, has died. He was 69.
Kim’s death 17 years after he inherited power from his father was announced today by the state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. The country’s “Dear Leader” reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease.
I always felt a bit sorry for him. His father was the truly evil despotic one who imposed his barbaric rule on North Korea. The son never had any chance being raised by such a father, to be any different.
North Korea has been grooming Kim’s third son to take over power from his father in the impoverished nation that celebrates the ruling family with an intense cult of personality.
That would be Kim Jong-un. He spent a few years attending school in Switzerland so may turn out to be slightly more benign that his father and grandfather.
Tags: Kim Jong Il, North Korea, RIPCrossword Answers December 16 2011
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 8:57 pmMore apologies regarding the rectification of the first stuff up in posting the answers to last week’s crossword. Here they are, promise – Kokila
An early start
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 2:00 pmWe go out twice a day here. The afternoon trip starts at 4 pm and we get back around 8 pm when we then have dinner.
The morning trip starts at just after 5 am, and returns in around 9 am for breakfast. I surprised myself by waking up at 4.30 am without the need for a call.
A troop of baboons crossing the track.
And then departing into the bush.
The first big five sighting – white rhinos.
They don’t seem to be worried by visitors as much as some beasts – possibly because they know few things short of a mortar could hurt them. You can see here how close you can get to them. Would be very messy if they did a sudden charge as they can move at 50 km/hr.
This rhino would weigh at least two tonnes. The horn is close to a metre long. They are the largest land mammals after elephants.
These are dwarf mongooses, and they are the smallest carnivores in Africa, being up to a foot long.
And the second big game sighting. Mr Buffalo. They will usually kill a lion one on one. It generally will take multiple lions to kill a buffalo. They estimate 200 people a year in Africa are killed by a buffalo.
A meeting of the local Bar Association.
A literal zebra crossing.
A monkey up the tree.
You could almost touch these antelopes.
An eagle in the tree.
And back home at 9 am. It’s a good day when you’ve done so much before breakfast!
Tags: DPF, South Africa10/10
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 12:00 pmShearer on issues
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 11:00 amNZ Herald reports:
“Why should we have another country’s flag in our top corner? I’d rather see a fern [which] for me is the national emblem. How we do that [depends] on how people want to do it.
1/1 I agree on.
“We should be moving towards a republic.”
But he added that it was not a “number one priority”.
2/2
Asked about New Zealand’s relationship with the US, he said: “I think we’ve gone back too much from where we were.
“We have a stronger voice and more respect internationally by being independent. And I don’t think the cost is that great.”
Not sure what he means here. How are we not independent at the moment? 2/3
He said he had no issue with gay marriage or same-sex adoption, and acknowledged that updating adoption laws – which the Government has said is not a priority – was long overdue.
He would have to see the detail of any bill to legalise gay marriage or same-sex adoption before voting for them but supported them in principle.
4/5. What I like about him is that he is willing to say outright that yes he supports gay marriage and same sex adoption. Goff could never quite bring himself to say that, and just would waffle about supporting civil unions and adoption law reform generally.
But he is less liberal on cannabis.
“I don’t think people should go to prison for smoking a joint but I don’t support legalising cannabis.”
He said there was merit in the Law Commission’s recommendation for a mandatory cautioning scheme.
5/6. I like the Law Commission proposed cautioning scheme.
On alcohol reform, Mr Shearer supported a split purchase age of 18 in bars and 20 in supermarkets and liquor shops.
5/7. There is no principled reason to stop a 19 year old buying a bottle of wine at a supermarket.
He said there was some evidence to clamp down on alcohol advertising, but he wanted to research the issue more.
5/8 in total. Not too bad.
Tags: David ShearerDoes KiwiSaver increase savings?
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 10:00 amStuff reports:
KiwiSaver has been only “modestly successful” at getting poorer people to save for their retirement, a new Treasury report says, warning that the scheme “may in fact reduce national savings”.
The working paper on the initial impact of the scheme on retirement savings argues that, because of the subsidies going to those who would have adequately saved anyway, the government may be paying out $13,000 a year for every person at whom KiwiSaver is aimed.
That does not surprise me. Those better off and already saving are the ones most likely to take advantage of 2:1 and 3:1 subsidies for saving.
The Treasury report said as many as 93 per cent of those in KiwiSaver were outside the target group, so the vast majority of the public cost of the savings scheme leaked away from those who may be poor in retirement.
A brave Labour Party would perhaps say we do not believe in middle class welfare where huge tax subsidies go to those who don’t need it, and we’ll restrict savings subsidies to low income NZers only.
Tags: KiwiSaverWinning a third term for National – Part I
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 9:00 amIt would be unfair to say that winning a second term was easy for National, because to lift your vote in Government is no easy thing to do. But the history of NZ is most Governments get a second term, coupled with an Opposition Leader who was so associated with the past. So the challenge was not so much to win, but to win with an ability to govern well – which has happened with a narrow 61 majority for National, ACT and United Future.
Winning a third term in 2014 is far harder, and I would regard National as the under dog at this stage. iPredict has Labour winning in 2014 at 53% and National at 47% and that is probably about right.
National needs to lose just 0.2% of the vote and it can only govern with the support of the Maori Party. Who knows what the Maori Party in 2014 might do, but I suggest that David Shearer is not as foolish as Phil Goff, and will not treat them as the enemy. Shearer was never part of that time in Labour that treated them as the last cab off the rank, and chose Winston in preference to them. They could go with Shearer in 2014.
But the Maori Party may not hold the balance of power. If National drops 3% in total, then NZ First would hold the balance of power. That is likely (but not certain) to see a Labour-led Government.Of course NZ First may implode again, as Peters is showing no sign of having changed his ways of bluster and bullshit – even over whether or not he had a fall.
So National are the under-dogs. It means that they will have to work incredibly hard to win a third term, and New Zealanders will have to be convinced they deserve it. This means the Government and Ministers must do far more than be competent administrators – they must push and drive reforms which clearly benefit New Zealanders. The welfare reforms are central to that. But so is trialling charter schools and bedding in national standards.
The economy will be front and centre. Sadly there will be very few votes in just doing what is necessary and getting the books back into surplus. At best National just won’t be punished for not achieving that. National will need to confront some of the harder issues such as housing affordability, and will have to make calls on do we leave mineral wealth in the ground or not. As I am typing this up from South Africa, I suspect locals here would be amused that we even have a debate in New Zealand about whether to mine or not.
National’s first term was about infrastructure. The second term is looking to focus on science and innovation. What will be the focus on a third term, if there is one – that voters will vote for? It has to be something that they feel couldn’t be done until the building blocks of the first two terms were in place.
Finally the left in the second term will talk a lot about poverty and income inequality as if they are the same thing. They are not. To take one example – China arguably has far greater income inequality than 20 years ago. But they also have 300 million less citizens in absolute poverty. National needs to own poverty reduction as an issue, and disentangle it from the socialistic goal of income equality which has failed in pretty much every state which has tried to legislate for it.
David Lange once famously called for a cup of tea for his Government. John Key needs to do the opposite. The pace of reform must increase, not slow. Voters want to see a Government confronting tough issues, and making decisions. They don’t want to just see a Government whose job it is to manage rather than lead.
Tags: NationalGeneral Debate 19 December 2011
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 8:00 amFinally a strike that benefits me!
Monday, December 19th, 2011 at 7:00 amAt the weekend was due to leave Capetown and head to a tented camp in the Timbavati Private Nature Reserve next to the Kruger National Park. Now I definitely was looking forward to this, but can’t say I was upset when I got a phone call to say there is a strike on, and it is unsafe to stay there without all the staff. So the travel agency at their own cost were transferring me to the Tintswalo Safari Lodge within the Manyeleti Private Game Reserve.
I’m doing some tented stuff later on again anyway, so will still experience that, but for now am going to be enjoying four nights at the Speke Suite, which normally costs US$1,340/night! That’s what I call a great travel agency! So this has been one strike action I’m all in favour of.
This is the local airport you land at. Then a pleasant three hour drive through countryside to thepark and the lodge.
This is the balcony of the lodge I am in. You can relax in your private pool with animals literally walking past you.
This is the main room, which is huge. Even the bathroom is probably bigger than some apartments in Auckland!
And this is the view from the main area, where we dine. The only fence they have is one to keep the elephants out, as they do too much damage if they stroll through.
Within an hour of arriving we were off for the first of seven four hour trips. I asked if the seat out the front is for bait, but it turns out that is where the tracker sits
Came across these zebras early on.
The bird life is almost as fascinating as the big game. Countless varieties.
Yes they are hippos. I wasn’t in the mood to go swimming with them!
Until you see a giraffe just a few feet from you, you really do not realise how magnificent they are.
Then the kids came out to join in.
This bird (I have to check its name) is the largest in Africa and weights 12 kgs normally. Made me wonder what sort of meal it would make!
A couple of wildebeests or wildebai.
One might think that all you do is drive around the nice well formed paths and wait for beasts to walk by. Well certainly some do, but you also go right into the bush when tracking. We’re tracking a lion here, and you’re in very enclosed spaces – you certainly couldn’t drive away at speed. Much of the time the car is creating a new pathway, and you’re having to duck as branches bounce around at you.
We weren’t sure if the lion was still there, so our driver/guide Fritz went to check it out on foot. Barely 30 seconds after he left we heard a loud roar and Fritz very quickly reappeared retreating to tell us he had basically all but walked into a lioness and half a dozen cubs, and she was being very protective. They took off before we could see them, but hope to track them tomorrow.
We had a break at this lake, which was beautiful in its tranquility.
And then had the sun set over it before we carried on tracking at night. Saw a few more beasts, but obviously photos not come out so well at night.
It’s hard to describe how incredibly relaxing it is to be driving through natural African parks, with birds and beasts just roaming about everywhere. You feel you’re one of the luckiest people on the planet to be experiencing nature in such a way.
Tags: DPF, South AfricaTable Mountain
Sunday, December 18th, 2011 at 4:00 pmI was meant to go up Table Mountain my first day in Cape Town but it was an unusually windy and inclement day and it was closed. But fortunately my final full day in Cape Town was beautifully sunny, so a great day to visit.
This is a view of the city from the bottom end of the gondola or cable car.
Each cable car takes 65 people, and what is very cool about them is the interior rotates so you do not need to worry about who gets the best view, as everyone gets to face all directions as you go up.
A view from the top.
You could spend hours and hours up here doing all the different paths.
Another view from the top. Cape Town is such a beautiful place.
Don’t jump, your kids need you!
That is Robben Island you can see in the distance. can also see their new sports stadium built for the FIFA World Cup.
Tags: DPF, South AfricaCrossword Answers 16 December 2011
Sunday, December 18th, 2011 at 3:28 pmApologies for the glitch yesterday. Answers as promised – Kokila Patel
Tags: crossword, John Stringer











































































