National candidates picking up Labour voters

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave Labour their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. In seats which are safe National, it is no big thing for a Labour voter to give their electorate vote to the National MP. In seats which are marginal, and Labour was trying to win, you get fewer Labour voters splitting their votes.

% of Lab PV voting Nat EV
Epsom 35.5%
Nelson 12.3%
Tauranga 11.0%
Bay of Plenty 10.8%
Selwyn 9.8%
Helensville 9.8%
Whangarei 9.5%
Clutha Southland 9.2%
Pakuranga 9.0%
Botany 8.9%
Northcote 8.5%
Hamilton East 8.1%
Waitaki 8.1%
Taupo 7.9%
Ilam 7.8%
Papakura 7.0%
Whanganui 6.6%
Taranaki-King Country 6.3%
Rangitikei 6.0%
Maungakiekie 6.0%
Hunua 6.0%
East Coast Bays 5.9%
Rangitata 5.6%
Otaki 5.6%
Northland 5.5%
Invercargill 5.3%
Tukituki 4.9%
Kaikoura 4.8%
North Shore 4.7%
Rotorua 4.7%
Waikato 4.5%
Tamaki 4.3%
Napier 4.2%
Waitakere 3.8%
Hamilton West 3.7%
Auckland Central 3.4%
Mana 3.1%
Wairarapa 3.0%
Rodney 2.6%
New Plymouth 2.5%
Waimakariri 2.4%
Coromandel 2.4%
East Coast 2.3%
Christchurch Central 2.1%
Dunedin North 2.0%
Palmerston North 1.6%
Christchurch East 1.5%
West Coast Tasman 1.4%
Port Hills 1.4%
Ohariu 1.3%
Manukau East 1.1%
Rimutaka 1.1%
Hutt South 1.1%
Wigram 1.0%
Manurewa 1.0%
Wellington Central 0.9%
Rongotai 0.8%
Mt Albert 0.8%
Te Atatu 0.8%
Dunedin South 0.8%
New Lynn 0.7%
Mt Roskill 0.7%
Mangere 0.4%

Okay no surprise that Epsom tops the list, as Labour voters there were voting strategically. The surprise, if any, is that only 36% of them voted strategically.

Nick Smith in Nelson gets the most support after that from Labour voters, followed by Simon Bridges in Tauranga and Tony Ryall in the Bay of Plenty.

In 26 of 63 seats, National candidates had 5% or more of Labour voters give then the candidate vote.

The seat which got the most Labour people voting for the National candidate, that National did not win, was Mana with 3.1%.

And the seat which National did win, with the lowest level of Labour party voters splitting their vote was Christchurch Central at 2.1%.

In eight seats, the National candidate attracted less than 1% of Labour party voters. The bottom three were Mangere, Mt Roskill and New Lynn.

Comments (9)

Login to comment or vote