National candidates picking up Labour voters

January 25th, 2012 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave Labour their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the National candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.

It is worth noting that not all electorates are equal. In seats which are safe National, it is no big thing for a Labour voter to give their electorate vote to the National MP. In seats which are marginal, and Labour was trying to win, you get fewer Labour voters splitting their votes.

% of Lab PV voting Nat EV
Epsom 35.5%
Nelson 12.3%
Tauranga 11.0%
Bay of Plenty 10.8%
Selwyn 9.8%
Helensville 9.8%
Whangarei 9.5%
Clutha Southland 9.2%
Pakuranga 9.0%
Botany 8.9%
Northcote 8.5%
Hamilton East 8.1%
Waitaki 8.1%
Taupo 7.9%
Ilam 7.8%
Papakura 7.0%
Whanganui 6.6%
Taranaki-King Country 6.3%
Rangitikei 6.0%
Maungakiekie 6.0%
Hunua 6.0%
East Coast Bays 5.9%
Rangitata 5.6%
Otaki 5.6%
Northland 5.5%
Invercargill 5.3%
Tukituki 4.9%
Kaikoura 4.8%
North Shore 4.7%
Rotorua 4.7%
Waikato 4.5%
Tamaki 4.3%
Napier 4.2%
Waitakere 3.8%
Hamilton West 3.7%
Auckland Central 3.4%
Mana 3.1%
Wairarapa 3.0%
Rodney 2.6%
New Plymouth 2.5%
Waimakariri 2.4%
Coromandel 2.4%
East Coast 2.3%
Christchurch Central 2.1%
Dunedin North 2.0%
Palmerston North 1.6%
Christchurch East 1.5%
West Coast Tasman 1.4%
Port Hills 1.4%
Ohariu 1.3%
Manukau East 1.1%
Rimutaka 1.1%
Hutt South 1.1%
Wigram 1.0%
Manurewa 1.0%
Wellington Central 0.9%
Rongotai 0.8%
Mt Albert 0.8%
Te Atatu 0.8%
Dunedin South 0.8%
New Lynn 0.7%
Mt Roskill 0.7%
Mangere 0.4%

Okay no surprise that Epsom tops the list, as Labour voters there were voting strategically. The surprise, if any, is that only 36% of them voted strategically.

Nick Smith in Nelson gets the most support after that from Labour voters, followed by Simon Bridges in Tauranga and Tony Ryall in the Bay of Plenty.

In 26 of 63 seats, National candidates had 5% or more of Labour voters give then the candidate vote.

The seat which got the most Labour people voting for the National candidate, that National did not win, was Mana with 3.1%.

And the seat which National did win, with the lowest level of Labour party voters splitting their vote was Christchurch Central at 2.1%.

In eight seats, the National candidate attracted less than 1% of Labour party voters. The bottom three were Mangere, Mt Roskill and New Lynn.

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9 Responses to “National candidates picking up Labour voters”

  1. Jinky (180 comments) says:

    Few surprises there. Nick Smith is a very good electorate MP and a genuinely nice guy. One of the few politicians I’ve met who has principles to which he has remained true over a long period of time. Not that I agree with him on much but at least I can respect him, in a similar fashion to DPF’s position with repect to Keith Locke (old post)

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  2. KiwiGreg (3,211 comments) says:

    More proof that Smith is just in the wrong party.

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  3. Shazzadude (521 comments) says:

    Yeah Nick Smith has long had strong support from Labour/Green voters, although it’s in decline.

    I think his managing to retain Nelson in 2002 was a very impressive feat when you look at how the party vote went that year in the electorate.

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  4. David Farrar (1,870 comments) says:

    Tony Ryall and Simon Bridges also get lots of Labour voters voting for them, and no one would suggest they are left-wing. Nick gets strong cross-party support because he is a superbly effective and hard working local MP – in my opinion.

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  5. Paulus (2,554 comments) says:

    Ryall and Bridges both local high profiles in their adjoining local electorates.
    Both regularly seen around and happy to talk and listen to whomsoever (usually at a weekend market).

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  6. Joseph Carpenter (211 comments) says:

    When is Nick Smith going to pay back the Taxpayer the $209,910.00 he owes them for his legal defense in the Osmose case?

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  7. Tauhei Notts (1,642 comments) says:

    Those Hamilton East figures should make the beaten Labour candidate embarrassed.
    But the figures won’t because those Labour Party harridans; I wish I could get shoe leather as tough as their hides.

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  8. Viking2 (11,242 comments) says:

    Paulus (606) Says:
    January 25th, 2012 at 1:27 pm

    Ryall and Bridges both local high profiles in their adjoining local electorates.
    Both regularly seen around and happy to talk and listen to whomsoever (usually at a weekend market).

    Ryall always has and mostly we know what he stands for.
    Bridges I’ve yet to see him expouse his own thoughts on anything.

    The reality is that in Bridges case there was no effective candidate standing against him so mostly there was noone else to vote for. even the Labour Party have now closed their local office.

    So Tauranga residents were left with Hobsons choice.
    Like the fonterra issue I pointed this out in plenty before the election.

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  9. RRM (9,630 comments) says:

    National candidates picking up Labour voters

    Just when you thought the whole Richard Worth story had died down…

    [DPF: Heh]

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