Republican Iowa Caucus
January 4th, 2012 at 2:27 pm by David FarrarCNN report:
According to the second round of CNN entrance polling of caucus-goers: Paul and Romney are tied at 24% followed by Santorum at 18%, Gingrich at 13%, Perry at 11%, Bachmann at 7% and Huntsman at 1%
Huntsman is not contesting Iowa. If Ron Paul beats Romney, that is big news. Ron Paul is the latest choice of the large “Anyone but Romney” following. But this is just an entrance poll.
January 4th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
This is good news from my perspective.
I understand the “anyone but Romney” sentiment. Bush was not a good candidate from a small govt viewpoint – he was more about big government, increase the deficit, and get us into wars we didn’t need to be in. So despite the Republicans being in control, many Republicans weren’t getting what they wanted. Hence the tea party, and this focus on candidates being ideologically pure.
Having said that, clearly Romney is going to come out ahead, and he’s my preferred candidate.
Given that, my preference is that Romney come out ahead without having had too much dirt thrown at him. If Gingrich or Perry were close to Romney, lots of dirt would fly. If Ron Paul is number two, my perception is that his campaign aren’t so much into dirt – they’re going to rely on their purity. So ideally Romney would have to adopt some of their better policies (a bit less foreign intervention, a bit of tax reform), and then be the anointed one. He can then tack towards the centre (whilst holding onto those core policies), and has a good chance of beating Obama.
If someone like Gingrich is coming a close second, I’d expect a very dirty campaign that will substantially damage whoever comes in first – since Obama’s team just need to replay all that dirt without doing any dirt digging of their own.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
No, he isn’t. That’s (supposedly) Santorum. Paul is the choice of people who support Paul.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Yeah, I cant see anyone who has heard Paul speak thinking he is another generic Republican.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
PaulL (4,313) Says:
January 4th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Bush was not a good candidate from a small govt viewpoint – he was more about big government, increase the deficit, and get us into wars we didn’t need to be in. So despite the Republicans being in control, many Republicans weren’t getting what they wanted. Hence the tea party, and this focus on candidates being ideologically pure.
Bush was one branch of government. Most of the country supported going into Iraq at the time and so did Congress. Some Republicans have this warped view of recent history and want to blame it all on Bush it seems.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
About halfway counted:
Rick Santorum 24.2%
Mitt Romney 23.5%
Ron Paul 21.8%
Santorum’s scientific credentials are interesting:
So pro ‘intelligent’ design but has said that global warming is “junk science”.
And he must be disappointed with the US extracting itself from a decade in Iraq:
Early days but hardly inspiring or comforting if this amongst the best on offer.
Obama has hardly lived up to the expectations of even his most faithful supporters, but it looks like the GOP may give him a fighting chance of scoring another term.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
County by county progress results
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Poor old Pete George horrified that the traditional Catholic with seven kids is making his mark
And Global warming is junk science btw
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Not horrified Andrei, bemused.
Global warming/climate change is legitimate science. For sure it’s science as settled as North Island weather, but there’s a still a lot of legitimate scienctific research and debate going on.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Weihana: I supported the Iraq war, still do. I (and many others) didn’t support the incompetence with which it was prosecuted, including the complete failure to plan for what happened after the last shot was fired in the war itself. Bush also took the US into all sorts of places they shouldn’t have been, and tried the throw the US’s weight around far more than I would prefer – it made the US into more of a target, and it made people like them less. All to no particular purpose other than big noting on the international stage.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Paul winning is irrelevant as is Santorum. They will both flame out so aren’t really a long term threat. As long as Romney finishes ahead of Perry and Gingrich (which he has done with ease) he is going to win the nomination. Romney will win NH next week and then win Florida as well. After that it will be all over.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Pete George: saying you believe in (or at least are open to) intelligent design is kind of an article of faith for republicans. I still don’t really get anyone believing in religion at all, let alone intelligent design, but even Obama professes to be a christian. Just an American thing perhaps.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Saying climate science is “junk science” is as stupid as saying that the science is “settled”. While I remain skeptical of some of the predictions made, the “warmers” still have a considerable amount of evidence in support of their theory. That it may not be entirely conclusive in my opinion does not make it “junk science”. That appears to be more of this ridiculous conservative movement which embraces ignorance as something honourable and a sign that one is not in cahoots with the academic elite. Woe betide the society that starts to view knowledge as some kind of evil.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:39 pm
What could be more ignorant and more unscientific than calling a mutilated male a female – Weihana?
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:42 pm
PaulL,
Bush also took the US into all sorts of places they shouldn’t have been…
Also? The US shouldn’t have been in Iraq where 1 trillion dollars of US taxpayer money was flushed down the toilet to give “freedom” to a bunch of socially conservative neanderthals. How does one reconcile “small government” with “lets go spend a trillion dollars fighting in a country that hasn’t attacked us”?
I supported the Iraq war when it was launched and I regret being wrong. My only consolation for having Bush elected in 04 is that it gave us Obama in 08
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Andrei,
As I understand it, a transgender person does not require a surgical operation, rather it is a lifestyle choice that a man wishes to live as if they were a woman. But I agree it is stupid to object to the fact that a transgender person is not really a woman. They are, of course, not really women and that is an undeniable scientific fact. In any case, I don’t find that most liberals embrace this silly delusion that transgender people are real women. I believe yesterdays news was a small group of vocal feminists and transgender people.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Yes, one of the many oddities of US democracy. One prerequisite for either party seems to be a strong religious connection, it doesn’t matter if it’s crackpot or not.
And far worse than here, candidates are examined minutely and strongly attacked, even by their own side. That will put off many potential candidates, limiting the pool substantially.
And once it’s all over they inevitably end up with a pander President who is the most powerful person in the world, in some ways, but has virtually no hope of repairing their country.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Pete George.
” but has virtually no hope of repairing their country.. “..
Ron Paul does .. IMHO.. Read his life story.. Not the current political bullshit..
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 9:07 pm
adam2314: Ron Paul has some good ideas, sometimes well presented. He also has some nutjob ideas, and I can’t see him “repairing” the country – he’s not pragmatic enough. Which is why I’d like to see some of his policies picked up, but not the whole set. I’d like to see:
Vote:– some relaxation on immigration – the Republicans need to reach out to the latino vote, and also it’s stupid that people who have been in the country paying taxes and being law abiding for 20 years not have some path to legitimacy
– fix the tax system – remove loopholes, remove tax breaks, rebalance so that those who are actually rich pay their share, rather than the middle class getting hammered (again)
– a more sensible policy on drugs in particular – prohibition has never worked anywhere, and works less well in the US than anywhere else
– shrink government bloat
– cut back on defence spending – the US doesn’t need to spend so much on defence, and much of that spending is wasted on pork barrels
January 4th, 2012 at 9:30 pm
The most “pragmatic thing one can do is work with Objective reality and respect its facts and non contradictions.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
So the crazy as bat shit Mormon just beats the favourite of the “Christian right”
Bloody hell!….Is it really that bad for the right in the USA that they have to select from this bunch of morons?
Can nobody convince Christie to run?
I know I could never vote for Obama but I sure as hell would not be voting for any of the republican bible bashers either. Perhaps they should just cancel the election and give Obama another term, use the money they would waste chasing votes to pay down some of their 14 trillion dollar debt.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
big bruv: he’s crazy because he’s a Mormon, or crazy in addition to being a mormon? I hadn’t seen anything he’d done that looked crazy, but haven’t looked that closely.
Vote:January 4th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Graeme is right, based on “who is your second preference?” polling over the past few months, Paul’s supporters are distinct from all the others. The folks who liked Gingrich (and Bachmann, and Perry, and Cain) don’t care for him a whole lot, and have instead flocked to Santorum (eww).
Vote:January 5th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Romney will win NH next week and then win Florida as well. After that it will be all over.
Even if he does, it will be far from over. GOP delegates are all allocated proportionally until 1st April, so even if Romney won every state from now until then, he could still only be a handful of delegates ahead. There are 19 winner-take-all states after that date, so unless Romney scores a decisive victory on Super Tuesday, the race will last right into the American summer.
Vote:January 5th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
An ungracious loser: http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/newt-wont-congratulate-mitt-on-win-109590.html
Vote:January 5th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
PaulL
“he’s crazy because he’s a Mormon, or crazy in addition to being a mormon?”
Both as far as I can see. Are we really expect to trust the leadership of the free world to somebody who believes in the sky fairy?
I know that the States is fucked up when it comes to Religion, I also know that it is impossible to get elected unless you profess to have a faith in the sky fairy but I would really rather have somebody who you knew did not take the whole god thing seriously.
Romney is a devout Morman, in my books that makes him soft in the head and no candidate to lead the free world.
N.B Santorom is even worse.
Vote: