Will it be Romney v Paul

January 11th, 2012 at 4:13 pm by David Farrar

As expected Mitt Romney has won New Hampshire. This was very much expected as he was a neighbouring Governor. What is more interesting is the order of the others and what may happen in South Carolina, which votes next.

AP reports on 52% of the votes:

  1. Romney 37%
  2. Paul 23%
  3. Huntsman 17%
  4. Gingrich 10%
  5. Santorum 10%

Romney leads in the polls for South Caroline and Florida. But Gingrich is not far behind in Florida, and will be out for blood.

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38 Responses to “Will it be Romney v Paul”

  1. Dick (80 comments) says:

    Fuck I wish the media would stop ignoring Paul.

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  2. Dick (80 comments) says:

    http://i.imgur.com/oeh2P.jpg

    Santorum paid roughly $20 per vote, and essentially tied for first. Perry paid over $480 per vote, far more than any other candidate, and came in fifth.

    Just a little evidence against the claim that elections are all about who has the most money to spend.

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  3. V (749 comments) says:

    And Romney just paid everyone off.

    http://www.salon.com/2012/01/07/35_romney_endorsers_received_contributions_first/singleton/

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  4. dog_eat_dog (789 comments) says:

    Ron Paul seems to be the only candidate in the Republicans capable of giving the Yanks a swift kick up the arse on the magnitude Obama promised. Whether what he believes is legitimate or insanity, it’s going to be interesting to see Obama sell his ‘no actual change masquerading as slow, positive change’ policies the second time around.

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  5. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    Dick,

    correct, in another example, NSW Labor outspent the Coalition by between 2 to 1 and 3.5 to 1 in the last 3 elections (prior to last year), yet won each time…

    Paul is, in my view, a RINO. He really is outside the Republicans (for the most part) and is more suited to a third party, if they really had them in the USA. I think that the contest is now mostly between Romney and Santorum, with Romney being the likely successor. Huntsman is almost a RINO, so I discount his chances as well.

    My fear is that Paul, if he doesn’t win the nomination, will have a run anyway.

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  6. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    Paul’s hit his ceiling.

    The rest of the field is disunited, because the anti-Romney vote – more specifically, the social conservatives – haven’t yet rallied around a candidate.

    Rupert Murdoch supports Santorum, at least on Twitter. In the Fox news stable, O’Reilly and Palin are behind Gingrich. Hannity will be the presenter to watch, because he mirrors “mainstream” Republican opinion. Glenn Beck likes Santorum.

    Gingrich is taking the nuclear option and has started to attack Romney from the centre. That’s earned him the ire of many, including his old friend Rush Limbaugh, without whom he wouldn’t be polling at all. It seems he’s just going to try to take Romney down with him.

    Perry only seems to remain in the race to appease his campaign contributors, who must regret backing such a poor performer.

    Romney isn’t setting the world on fire, but is benefitting from the divided opposition. His problem is that in the course of this primary season, his opponents have been doing all of Obama’s work. If Romney wins the candidacy, he’ll be shouldering a narrative set by members of his own party, and have to fight hard not to resemble a Republican John Kerry.

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  7. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    @FE Smith

    Paul is, in my view, a RINO.

    The 20-odd-percent of the Republican party who support him would beg to differ.

    The GOP seems a broader church than one might expect.

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  8. BlairM (2,364 comments) says:

    I have concerns about Romney’s electability. I still think he can beat Obama, but he is vulnerable on so many issues and the base are apathetic about him. I did favour Gingrich, and I think he would be a bold and brilliant President, but he has proven this week that he is too mercurial to be trusted with the nomination.

    I am stuck with hoping Perry or Huntsman come through, but that seems a big ask. Perry is probably too lazy and Huntsman has such a tin ear for this campaign that I’d be surprised if he didn’t further poison his own well in Florida.

    The other two, Paul and Santorum, are just too horrible to contemplate. This field is the Tea Party’s worst nightmare. But let’s get one thing straight: RON PAUL IS NOT GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE! There simply are not enough Iranian-appeasers in the GOP to vote for him. I look at several of my Facebook friends earnestly and excitedly updating Ron Paul’s voting tally as if it were the most important thing on earth, and ask, “Have you completely lost your mind?”

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  9. V (749 comments) says:

    @BlairM
    Do you know what happened in 1953, perhaps a reason why Iranians are not particularly enamoured with US influence.

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  10. grumpyoldhori (2,362 comments) says:

    Heh, when will Paul start calling Romney a chickenhawk, the truth certainly pissed Gingrich off.
    A seventy eight year old president with a good chance of Alzheimers and his finger on the big red button will be fun.

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  11. grumpyoldhori (2,362 comments) says:

    BlairM come on, Santorum will make a fine candidate, the birthers love him.

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  12. Paul1 (32 comments) says:

    Exit polls show that Romney did very well among conservatives which bodes well for South Carolina.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/new-hampshire-primary-jan-10/exit-polls

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  13. Andrei (2,668 comments) says:

    Everyone know Romney is the media appointed candidate and he will get a pass and gushy coverage right up until his nomination is confirmed whereupon the stories about Mormon underwear and polygamy will pour forth.

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  14. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    ephemera,

    not necessarily. In this case, I suspect Paul’s showing is more an ‘not Romney’ vote than a ‘he’s good’ vote. Sort of a best of the others, so to speak.

    His policies are often contrary to what most Republicans, or even right and centre-right wing voters would expect of a Republican nominee.  I think that view is confirmed by this post at Powerlineblog.

    I would think that the Democrats would be delighted to see Paul get the nomination.  Just like they know that Romney will be their toughest opponent, even though many Republicans are completely convinced by him. 

    Of course, the Dems biggest problem is Obama himself, but that is another story.

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  15. Daigotsu (465 comments) says:

    “Fuck I wish the media would stop ignoring Paul.”

    Oh here we fucking go. You Paulistas and your circular logic. “We know Ron Paul is the most popular candidate and he would win if only the media would tell everybody he would win”

    Any candidate would win if given the cock-sucking coverage that you seem to think is Paul’s by birthright.

    Before the Iowa caucus I saw many news stories speculating that Paul might win it. So even with the media taking Paul utterly seriously as a contender, he won.

    The reason Paul doesn’t win is because most voters do not want to surrender to Iran or end the war on drugs. No amount of media coverage can change that.

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  16. Mark (1,489 comments) says:

    It is unlikely that any of these candidates pose a credible threat to Obama. The republicans appear to be in complete disarray as the right and left factions try and tear each other to pieces. Romney is largely leading by default as the rest are worse.
    Palin looks good amongst this lot and she was an embarrassment in the last presidential campaign

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  17. Scott Chris (6,176 comments) says:

    The big mover is Huntsman. Everyone else has had a go at being the front runner, so perhaps he might emerge as a dark horse.

    Imo, he’s the only one capable of beating Obama. Romney has no charisma, and all the others have baggage.

    Okay, so he’s a Mormon, but he’s a moderate and has a good record as Governor, albeit a high spending one. Big plus – he speaks Mandarin so he’ll be able to communicate well with his banker.

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  18. PaulL (6,044 comments) says:

    Palin never looked good compared to Romney. He is a solid candidate, but he gets attacked from both right and left. I’m not sure any of them have what it takes to beat Obama, but I don’t think that is necessarily a reflection on the candidates. Obama is actually very electable – I don’t like his politics, but I can recognise a good salesman.

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  19. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    @F E Smith

    Have you not noticed how devoted Paul’s fans are to the guy? There’s some serious Kool Aid drinking going on. Romney doesn’t seem to factor much into it.

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  20. BlairM (2,364 comments) says:

    @BlairM
    Do you know what happened in 1953, perhaps a reason why Iranians are not particularly enamoured with US influence.

    I was pointing out that GOP voters don’t know and don’t care. All they know is that they don’t want a nuclear Iran and Ron Paul is not bothered by that.

    I also want to counter this notion that Huntsman is a moderate – he was a very conservative Governor who balanced the Utah budget. Why in Moroni’s name he is campaigning as a moderate and making snide remarks about people in his own party I have no idea, as he would otherwise be the ideal Tea Party poster boy. I can only assume he is surrounded by complete idiots, or has had some sort of stroke when he was off in China.

    Palin looks good amongst this lot and she was an embarrassment in the last presidential campaign

    Whenever Palin was on TV in the last campaign, McCain’s poll numbers went up. The only people who found her embarrassing were Democrats. It was hard to know at the time she was making her mind up, but it’s fair to say now she would have creamed this field.

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  21. PaulL (6,044 comments) says:

    Blair, she probably (maybe) would have won the Republican nomination. But she wouldn’t have pulled independents in the election proper. I think many Republicans would have taken that into account….which leads us back to Romney. He’s the only guy in the field who’s really electable to my mind, and sooner or later the right wing of the Republican party will have to deal with that. Picking anyone else is actually picking Obama. Even picking Romney might be picking Obama, but at least he has a chance.

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  22. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    ephemera,

    the Paulistas are a very small, rabid part of no party. He does have a hard core following, but it isn’t really a Republican following.

    Moreover, the NH primary was not a Republican only primary- independents were allowed to vote in it as well. Therefore your assertion that 20% of Republicans seem to approve of him is probably off base by quite a bit.

    BlairM,

    agree with your comments re Huntsman. He is shooting himself in the foot with they way he is conducting his campaign. Also re Palin- the people who hate her the most are the media, followed by the Dems (often the same thing), hence the vilification of her. The American public actually seem to quite like her!

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  23. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    @PaulL

    In essence, you are saying Romney is the best of a bad bunch. If this is the case, they’ve lost this year’s election already.

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  24. ephemera (557 comments) says:

    @FE Smith

    In Iowa Ron Paul scored quite highly, if I recall, as well as in national polls.

    You do Republicans a disservice by narrowly defining party interests. Are you a member, yourself?

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  25. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    ephemera,

    nah, they are too left wing for me…

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  26. Scott Chris (6,176 comments) says:

    F E Smith

    So if you had a choice of *any* candidate to run for POTUS, who would you choose?

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  27. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    Scott Chris,

    based on the info I have at present? Paul Ryan or Tim Pawlenty. Or Jeb Bush.

    Chris Christie is also tempting, but I am not sure he isn’t too polarising to be elected. It would have been interesting if he had put his name in the hat this time around.

    Scott Walker from Wisconsin also looks good, but he is a newby, so perhaps in 8 years or so.

    Not really a fan of Romney, given his record as a governor, but any of this field, even Paul, would be better than Obama for a second go.

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  28. Daigotsu (465 comments) says:

    I was a fan of Pawlenty until he just totally flubbed it in the first Repub debates.

    If he couldn’t handle those there is no way he could have handled a debatw w/Obama, I’m sorry.

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  29. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    fair point, Daigotsu, but one can always improve on the debating, while policy positions are more difficult to improve these days without being accused of ‘flip flopping’.

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  30. Manolo (14,044 comments) says:

    I predict Paul will not be anywhere near the nomination and will not run as an independent.

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  31. big bruv (14,141 comments) says:

    “Glenn Beck likes Santorum. ”

    A bloody good reason to dislike Santorum then I would have thought.

    I wonder if Beck starting crying when he endorsed Santorum?

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  32. big bruv (14,141 comments) says:

    F E

    “Chris Christie is also tempting, but I am not sure he isn’t too polarising to be elected. It would have been interesting if he had put his name in the hat this time around. ”

    He might be a bit polarising but he would drag middle voters over to the right in their droves. Sure the religious nutter vote might stay at home but Christie would give those who voted for Obama last time around a very real reason to switch to the GOP.

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  33. Fletch (6,489 comments) says:

    As Andrei said above, Romney is the Democrats choice to run. The media has attacked every other candidate apart from Romney (yet!). That is who they want to run against their beloved Obama.

    Both Palin and Limbaugh agree –

    There is a story on the Drudge Report today from Sarah Palin in which Sarah Palin says that the White House wants Mitt Romney to be the Republican nominee. Now, not only did I tell you that the Broncos were gonna beat the Steelers, for months I have been telling you that the Democrats want Romney — and you all know it. You’ve been listening here and you’ve heard people call me and tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about, that I’m full of it, that they’re scared of Romney. “Romney is the only guy who can win.” And I have said, “No,” and I’ve stood tough, and I’ve said, “They can’t wait for him. What’s Occupy Wall Street all about but running against Romney? He’s the Wall Street guy on our roster — and then Romneycare,” and I’ve laid it all out. So here comes Palin, she says it, and makes news.- Rush Limbaugh

    http://biggovernment.com/awrhawkins/2012/01/10/sarah-palin-and-rush-limbaugh-agree-mitt-romney-is-obamas-candidate-of-choice/

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  34. V (749 comments) says:

    Only the republicans would be stupid enough to put up a private equity guy for election immediately following a financial crisis.

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  35. BlairM (2,364 comments) says:

    Blair, she probably (maybe) would have won the Republican nomination. But she wouldn’t have pulled independents in the election proper. I think many Republicans would have taken that into account….which leads us back to Romney. He’s the only guy in the field who’s really electable to my mind, and sooner or later the right wing of the Republican party will have to deal with that. Picking anyone else is actually picking Obama. Even picking Romney might be picking Obama, but at least he has a chance.

    If you can’t get your base to turn out, you won’t win, simple as that. McCain nominated Palin precisely to turn out the base, and he still couldn’t do it. Independents are notoriously sheep-like and will go wherever the momentum of a campaign takes them. That’s why Obama – who ran a far-left campaign, beat the moderate McCain. It is nothing like as simple as “appealing to independents”.

    I think all six GOP candidates could beat Obama with a good campaign. My thoughts here. But there is no way Romney is “most electable”. He will struggle to fire up the base, he is effectively handicapped from attacking Obama on the thing people most dislike about him (his healthcare reforms), and he has flip-flopped so many times on issues in his bid to win office in Massachusetts that the Democrats will have a field day lampooning his varying positions. He is a tough sell – probably the toughest of the six barring Ron Paul. The only thing he really has going for him is that he has run an airtight and disciplined campaign so far, which cannot be said about his rivals.

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  36. Manolo (14,044 comments) says:

    Only the republicans would be stupid enough to put up a private equity guy for election immediately following a financial crisis.

    Sure. Let’s put up a community organiser without any life/business experience outside Chicago’s political mafia.
    That sounds like Obama. Oooops.

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  37. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    “Only the republicans would be stupid enough to put up a private equity guy for election immediately following a financial crisis.”
    New Zealand put up a millionaire New York currency trader for election right in the middle of the financial crisis and he romped home.

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  38. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    Ron Paul:
    Inspiring (in his own nutty way) but unelectable. I respect him for energising the electorate and bringing in people who would not normally vote to the Republican but he doesn’t have widespread appeal (it would be like an Act candidate running for president of NZ if such a position existed). If he were to win the nomination he would lose the election. If he were to win the nomination and the election he would be an unpopular lame duck president because you would need libertarian leaning supermajorities in both houses to implement his policy platform. He would struggle to even get a majority of Republicans to back half of what he is promising let alone a house majority.

    Gingrich:
    He’s the Republican version of Phil Goff – a total political insider who knows how the game is played but not how to connect to the public. Very smart and would probably be relatively effective if he were to get the job. But I’d expect the average voter to view him the same way the view congress – approval is at an all time low. If he managed to get the nomination I’d expect him to do about as well as Phil Goff did in November.

    Santorum:
    He’s a religious nut. America is one of the most deeply religious countries in the western world and he’s still probably too extreme. His best chance of winning the presidency would be if the California and the whole East Coast decided to secede from the union.

    Huntsman:
    Might be Ok – except that he’s considered too much like Romney to be running against Romney, especially this late in the game when Romney is already considered the likely candidate.

    Romney:
    Winner by default. The uninspiring compromise candidate that nobody really loves but everybody can just about agree on. It’s John Kerry all over again – expect him to get soundly beaten by Obama.

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