A success story

March 2nd, 2012 at 12:53 pm by David Farrar

The data is from the annual ASH survey of Year 10 students, which has around 30,000 responses. ¬†That’s a really good trend. 12 years ago 70% of Year 10 students had smoked, and now it is 30%. What do readers think is the reason? Peer pressure? Price? Law changes?

A huge difference by ethnicity. In 2011 they are:

  • Have smoked¬†- European 23.5%, Maori 53.8%, Pacific 38.9%, Asian 11.7%
  • Regular smokers – European 5.6%, Maori 18.1%, Pacific 10.7%, Asian 2.6%
  • Daily smokers – European 2.4%, Maori 10.3%, Pacific 5.9%, Asian 1.2%

However Maori Year 10s have had the biggest decline over the period also.

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14 Responses to “A success story”

  1. Pete George (22,740 comments) says:

    I saw a report yesterday that said young people think it’s too expensive, and it ain’t cool any more. About time.

    Addicted attitudes can take a long time to change but this indicates that it can be done.

    Now how about a decent campaign against our culture of violence?

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  2. infused (634 comments) says:

    Good stuff.

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  3. emmess (1,367 comments) says:

    That is for year 10 students. i.e 15 year olds
    Its just a hunch, but I imagine due to higher prices kids are starting smoking later, which is good in itself, but a graph of 17,18,19 year old might not show such a big decline.

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  4. Pete George (22,740 comments) says:

    Hopefully in two years time a graph of 17 year olds will show a similar trend. This may take time to work up the age range as a more smoking sensible generation grows older.

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  5. JohnM (7 comments) says:

    Its a pretty constant annual decline in each measure for this age group. While ASH is saying the 2010-2011 reduction is one of the largest in the survey’s history, the 2009-10 change was the smallest – so perhaps that year’s result reflects a sampling error and this year’s drop is simply “catch-up” back to the trend.
    Its hard to see any impact of the recent excise tax and price increases in these figures – youth smoking rates were falling at about the same annual rate throughout the 2000s when the price of cigarettes was pretty constant in real terms.
    Whatever the cause, this is a great long-term trend as very few take up smoking after age 18.

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  6. Ryan Sproull (7,026 comments) says:

    That’s great news.

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  7. Redbaiter (7,522 comments) says:

    Yeah, lets get big gummint to fix every perceived problem.

    Sick utopian morons.

    This is a parental responsibility and government and or government funded pressure groups like the sanctimonious do-gooders at ASH should have damn all to do with it.

    A pox on ASH and a pox on those who support these soviet style initiatives. You’re destroying our country with your foolish blindness.

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  8. RRM (9,420 comments) says:

    Oh Jesus, look what’s back.

    A pox on ASH and a pox on those who support these soviet style initiatives.

    ASH is a group of people who think they have some good ideas, and they want to put them forward, and they are free to do so.

    That’s the polar opposite of “Soviet-style” anything you dribbling lunatic.

    Kiwiblog has been good without you M’baiter.
    Just go back to your self-made padded cell and play with your 7 friends (only 4 of them are imaginary, the rest are all real and they’ve been missing you) over there where your ideas are appreciated.

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  9. thor42 (901 comments) says:

    Great to see this trend! Long may it continue.

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  10. tvb (4,193 comments) says:

    This is welcome. The day is coming that cigarettes are banned in all public places.

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  11. HB (287 comments) says:

    awesome.
    I have seen a definite decline in interest amongst students myself too. Ones who are still persisting seem to be those with parents who are heavy smokers. For example, a student of mine who thought it was fine to smoke, despite all the health warnings. She smoked regularly with mum. This seems to be because mum is a real loser who wants a mate to sit and smoke with on the back door step. Money no object to the 14 year old because mum is providing. I only managed to get her to reconsider once I showed her photos of wrinkley lady smokers. ‘Ew’

    I would be interested to see stats dope smoking and the change on this over the years.
    Also my observation in working with young people is that most of them seem to get the habit and supply from parents/family, not the local tinnie house.

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  12. Danny (3 comments) says:

    Sorry, but I can’t get very excited about this. If people were freely choosing not to smoke cigarettes, I’d be pleased. But it seems likely that tax increases and legal restrictions on the locations at which people can freely smoke are primarily responsible for the decrease here.

    Cigarette smoking is harmful to health. So are a hundred thousand other things. Does this fact render it proper for government to restrict people’s liberty in order to curb the practice? I would argue that it does not. If you disagree, then I ask–where does it stop?

    How about differing tax rates based upon the body mass index of the taxpayer? No doubt this would lower rates of obesity. How about punitive taxes on sugary or fatty foods? Sound like a good idea?

    Reminds me of an (admittedly hyperbolic) slogan I saw on a coffee mug recently. “Smoking is Healthier than Fascism.”

    [DPF: Danny this is rates for Year 10 students or 14 year olds. The rate should be zero. If people choose as adults to take up smoking that is one thing, but we should be making it hard for kids to get addicted to tobacco]

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  13. Danny (3 comments) says:

    –slaps palm against forehead–

    I’m so proud that my first post here on Kiwiblog was entirely wrongheaded, based upon a careless reading of your initial post, David. In fairness to myself though, “Year 10″ was only mentioned four times in that initial post.

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  14. Paulus (2,492 comments) says:

    Continue to put up Tobacco Tax.

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