Poll Update
April 8th, 2012 at 7:00 am by David FarrarI’ve blogged at Curiablog the details of the latest Roy Morgan poll.
It is the first poll since (off memory) 2007 which has shown a centre-left government able to be formed, categorising Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana as centre-left.
Tags: Polls
April 8th, 2012 at 9:38 am
How long till the Greens are the main opposition party? It can’t be long now.
Vote:April 8th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Note that NZF is exactly on the 5% threshold, if they fall just below it a CL government is no longer able to be formed. Also, I’m sceptical of classifying NZF as simply CL (and to some degree UF as CR). Peters and Dunne are too much of opportunists to not flirt with the other party, as they have done in the past even when that wasn’t expected.
There are also constraints that simple addition of both sides don’t take in account, for instance the fact that Labour would form the government despite winning far less votes and possibly being second choice in a hypothetical “two party preferred vote”, and that a Labour-led government requires the participation of both the Greens, NZF and potentially other parties, whereas a National-led government can be formed simply with NZF (meaning Peters will be second rather than third).
Vote:April 8th, 2012 at 11:30 am
I don’t think it is too helpful to translate every poll into seat numbers, mainly becasue of the uncertainty about parties near the threshold. Also, I agree you can’t put NZF or Peter Dunne automatically into one camp or another – they would support whoever offers the most baubles.
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