Latest Roy Morgan poll
June 17th, 2012 at 6:11 pm by David FarrarThe latest Roy Morgan poll came out on Friday. It covers the 11 days up until the 7th of June (which happens to be the day the Government reversed its class size decision). Details are at Curiablog.
June 17th, 2012 at 7:34 pm
So do you think ACT won’t stand a candidate in Epsom or he/she will lose?
[DPF: I based the seat projections on public polls, not my opinions. A recent poll showed National would heavily win Epsom]
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
No conservative party?
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Don’t be silly Dime, only those who sleep with a gun under the bed lest they be attacked by ‘commies’ vote for the bible bashing party.
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 7:50 pm
So they have Redbaiter’s vote, at least.
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 9:35 pm
A recent poll showed National would heavily win Epsom
Epsom polls have been notoriously inaccurate.
Most small party support only firms in the last two weeks of an election, so projections based on “if an election was held now” don’t mean a heck of a lot.
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Quite right Pete George. I thought polls have never, ever, actually showed Act winning Epsom. I think it would be reasonable for any polling projections to show Act retaining it – even if it was just a mention on how Act retaining it would affect the make up of parliament (i.e. would another party lose a party list spot, would it be overhang etc?)
Vote:June 17th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
How likely is the headline, “National gains support after listening to public opinion”?
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 5:49 am
Stuff the Conservative party. Conservatives need to swing in behind United Future. The only minor party proven to have a track record in Parliament and a huge swing vote to UF would kick WP to the curb. Then we’d have a government capable of future proofing NZ.
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 6:31 am
Monique – you’re right, one of the best ways to minimise the Winston Peters effect is to promote a better alternative, and United Future is a viable option already in place.
But it does depend on how UF build through this term. The party should be a prime consideration for anyone who’s politically ambitious, with a liberal democrat inclination, and wants to fast track their way into a pivotal political position during the current term.
I’ve proven how this can be done and now have a fascinating involvement with potential to have influence in what’s happening now, while retaining a degree of independence. UF needs a new generation wanting to drive new ambitions who recognise a ready made party vehicle. If anyone’s interested I’d be happy to help you get up to speed and influential quickly. All you need is an open political mind and are determined to make a difference. I can’t guarantee success, obviously, but I can guarantee the best political opportunity going.
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 7:22 am
shame about that serial-zero-polling..eh..?..
(that figure again..?..’zero’..)
as pg calls desperately for ‘anyone’..
..heh..!
i hope that slimy asset-selling bastard is tossed out of office in the upcoming big-backlash against nact/neo-lib/austerity..
phillip ure whoar.co.nz
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 7:36 am
The Nat’s might lose the next election Phool, there is a slim chance……however, it will not be before your life long bludging and parasitic behaviour comes to an end.
When that day comes (and I am told it is going to be very soon) there are many of us who will celebrate, while I cannot speak for anybody else I know that I will laugh in your face.
It will indeed be a great day.
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 7:53 am
why don’t you go and try to crank out post number 16 on yr sad excuse for a blog…?
oh..!..that’s right..!..you lack the basic intelligence to be able to marshall/transmit what laughingly passes for thought..in yr little mind/brain..eh..?
..all you’ve go is the ad-homs that you post here..eh..?
..’cos that’s all those 15 posts..in one year..(!)..is really all about..eh..?
..you one-trick pony/thicko excuse for a human being..eh..?..
phillip ure whoar.co.nz
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 8:10 am
There is room for a moral conservative party which could even take votes away from Labour. It is much more soundly based than the Act party which has no point to it. If Act had been a morals conservative party it would be in good shape today.
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 8:16 am
You fail to mention that the poll shows “others” on 2%. A figure higher than that obtained by act, united, mana and maori.
Vote:Could it be that the Conservatives remain NZ’s 5th largest party as they were in the 2011 election?
We won’t know until roy morgan tells us who the 2% others are.
June 18th, 2012 at 8:19 am
Those who want the WP effect to go away (I presume) have thumbed their nose at those economists who claim (for example):
In a country with a relatively low national savings rate, rapid population growth will put sustained upward pressure on real interest rates and, in turn, the real exchange rate, making it harder to achieve the per capita income gains that people (and the government) aspire to,” the report states.
Group member Andrew Coleman, an economics lecturer and consultant, said despite obvious sensitivities the issue warranted attention amid what is shaping up to be a national debate on how to deal with New Zealand’s mounting foreign debt.
“We’re not anti-immigration but we are saying it’s something we need to look at,” Colemand said. “If we are concerned about disruptive change caused by debt levels in response to natural outcomes of migration, then we want to make sure it is occurring at a rate that isn’t getting us into trouble,” he said.
In its report , the SWG theorises that if net immigration flows were held at 1980- levels, the country’s net foreign liabilities could be 20% lower than its current rate of 85% debt to GDP.
“This is a critical difference in terms of vulnerability and growth and arises because new residents require new capital stock immediately, which must be paid for…increasing the need for foreign borrowing.”
The report goes on to blame higher levels of migration in the past two decades for pushing up house prices.
Vote:http://www.interest.co.nz/kiwisaver/52140/migration-policy-linked-inflated-housing-prices-government-spending-and-low-savings
June 18th, 2012 at 8:30 am
80% of our population growth in the last couple of decades has been the net inflow of non NZ citizens .
“Among policy and analytical circles in New Zealand there is a pretty high degree of enthusiasm for high levels of immigration. Some of that stems from the insights of literature on increasing returns to scale. Whatever the general global story, the actual productivity track record here in the wake of very strong inward migration is poor. In an Australian context, the Productivity Commission – hardly a hot-bed of xenophobia or populism – concluded that any benefits from migration to Australia were captured by migrants and there were few or no discernible economic benefits to Australians. And that was in a country already rich and successful and with materially higher national saving and domestic investment rates than those in NZ.”*
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/downloads/pdfs/mi-jarrett-comm.pdf
*NZ Productivity Commission was directed to look at certain specific issues which didn’t include immigration. Perhaps they knew the answer?
Vote:June 18th, 2012 at 8:33 am
Fill Ur Boots
Vote:http://www.hougarden.com/
June 18th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
I think presuming ACT would not win Epsom is mischevious. No poll has ever given ACT the seat yet every election it does. Idon’t believe the people of Epsom are so stupid as to not vote ACT when it brings in an extra seat.
Commentators continuelly try to write offf ACT but they are always wrong, history tells us that. What was the latest poll in Ohuria I wonder. Oh that is right they don’t do polls there, just in Epsom. I wonder why they did a poll in Epsom, did they do every electorate no of course they didn’t.
Vote:What happened to ACT is a classic example of the pollsters influencing politics. There is no excuse for the dismal performance of these pollsters, they need to look at what the question is or how they poll or something because they have no credibility when it comes to ACT and Epsom.