Strong growth

June 21st, 2012 at 12:16 pm by David Farrar

Stats NZ reports:

Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (), grew 1.1 percent in the first three months of 2012, Statistics New Zealand said today. This strong growth follows revised growth of 0.4 percent in each of the previous three quarters.

Compared with the March 2011 quarter, economic activity in the March 2012 quarter was up 2.4 percent. For the year ended March 2012, economic activity was up 1.7 percent compared with the year ended March 2011.

“This quarter we saw growth spread across a number of industries, while in previous quarters the industry picture had been more mixed with growth in some industries offset by falls in others,” national accounts manager Rachael Milicich said.

The main contributors to the increase in this quarter were, by industry:

  • manufacturing (up 1.8 percent), due to increases in primary food manufacturing and metal product manufacturing
  • business services (up 2.0 percent), which include professional, scientific, technical, administrative, and support services
  • agriculture (up 2.3 percent), mainly driven by an increase in milk production.

The market was expecting growth of 0.5% to 0.6% so this is an excellent result. The annual figure is very respectable also. The Government will be pleased. The challenge is to keep growing, and to have it sustainable.

People may wish to ponder how a significant factor in the growth was an increase in milk production, and the official Green party policy is to kill (or make magically disappear) every fifth cow, which presumably would decrease milk production by 20%.

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25 Responses to “Strong growth”

  1. RRM (10,018 comments) says:

    It’s good to see that you have correctly identified the Green Party as the main/best opposition party in the house, to be the target of your near-constant little smears and attacks! :-)

    [DPF: I attack their policies, when their policies are stupid. I support their policies, when I agree with them. I apply that pretty much to all parties]

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  2. Brad (75 comments) says:

    I don’t think greater-than-normal rainfall is a viable economic growth strategy

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  3. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,919 comments) says:

    Brad @12:21

    So no doubt you’ll be supporting plans to irrigate vast areas of the South Island?

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  4. mikenmild (11,719 comments) says:

    Could you provide a link to the cow reduction policy? I haven’t seen such a statement. What would be the right number of cows for a sustainable industry?

    [DPF: It is in their climate change policy. They call it a 20% reduction in the intensity of dairy herds]

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  5. Manolo (14,065 comments) says:

    The communist Green Party is not only opposition (Labour is piss weak), but the worst enemies of a modern NZ.

    The Luddites dream of a bucolic, non-mining, non-industrial NZ, where its habitants toil the fields for subsistence, while their leaders travel around the world lecturing on how to save Gaia.

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  6. queenstfarmer (782 comments) says:

    Could you provide a link to the cow reduction policy?

    http://www.greens.org.nz/policy/climate-change-policy-kicking-carbon-habit

    They call it “lower stocking rates”.

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  7. Colville (2,300 comments) says:

    so kill 20% of the cows and we drop $3bil exports and around 25000 jobs. .

    Fuckwits.

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  8. Angus (536 comments) says:

    Well said, Colville.

    Not even Klark wanted to go into coalition with them. That should provide ample proof of what a pack of no-nothing flat-earth no-growth environmental Marxist eggheads the Greens really are. But by cloaking themselves in ecological righteousness, they fool a hell of a lot of people.

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  9. KiwiGreg (3,259 comments) says:

    It’s ok, they plan to limit the population of humans too so the cows wont be alone.

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  10. KH (695 comments) says:

    Yep – it’s agriculture – you can forget the tech stuff.
    Maybe it’s time for the exporting and productive South Island to leave the Kiwizone.

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  11. Richard Hurst (871 comments) says:

    “…The challenge is to keep growing, and to have it sustainable…”

    Easy- dam and irrigate.

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  12. adze (2,129 comments) says:

    Their organic farm policy is an eye opener as well. They have some target to have 100% of farms being organic within 10 years or something. Now having sustainable industry (including agriculture) is an important goal, but organics is pseudoscientific tosh. And they want all farms to be organic!

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  13. Viking2 (11,565 comments) says:

    ah, but my measure is much quicker and more reliable and right now it tells me things have tanked quite quickly in the last three weeks. Many businesses have gone from hero to zero in that short time this month.
    Ask around and you will hear it.

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  14. KiwiGreg (3,259 comments) says:

    @ adze – none of their policies bear close scrutiny. If they actually tried implementation we’d have a police state the fascists would have been proud of.

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  15. cows4me (248 comments) says:

    adze is on to it. Organics as in dairy was tried around here a couple of years ago. Total disaster, millions lost, unsustainable markets etc etc. The fucking organic loving Melons couldn’t even save the factory, seems organic milk costs more to produce ( fancy that ) and these fucktards lacked the conviction of their morals and would not pay more for something that was suppose to be the bees knees in Melonland. I despise these fucktards.

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  16. mikenmild (11,719 comments) says:

    Thank you queenstfarmer for that link, I can see where that refers to lower stocking rates, among other things. Is there a specific target for a 20% reduction? Again, what would a sustainable dairy industry look like?

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  17. thedavincimode (6,876 comments) says:

    adze

    In terms of an export market, organic is likely the way to go long term because of market premia attaching to organic food (query milk because Fonterra are canning it). Of course, it goes without saying that when domestic prices rocket accordingly, the head melon will be demanding commissions of inquiry, heads to roll and his fwag back.

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  18. chiz (1,164 comments) says:

    Depends on whether organic maintains its market premia. I can recall reading an article somewhere earlier this year in which an american trendspotter claimed that organic food was loosing its status and predicting that people were starting to develop an interest in humane food. As organic food becomes more popular the critics views get more attention.

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  19. thedavincimode (6,876 comments) says:

    milkymouldy

    Sustainability isn’t, in itself, a product of stocking rate. It is a function or what livestock emit x livestock intensity. It doesn’t follow that just because they all eat grass, that all grass is the same in terms of the effect on the animal. Whatever is in the grass is a function of the soil it grows in (fertility-wise).

    If you were to sit down down and indulge in a lager frenzy of organically produced lager, and then use it to wash down entrees of organic pea soup and lightly fried organic onions, followed by a main of arse-rendering organic vindaloo and a desert of organic baked beans, then your total emissions the next day, and your impact upon the environment (water and atomosphere) would inevitably differ from those of someone who was content with a small carrot bought off the shelf at the supermarket.

    Irrespective on your view on carbon emissions, the science appears to be clearly in on damage to waterways through nitrogen. Livestock emissions are a function of what they eat. Grass

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  20. mikenmild (11,719 comments) says:

    DVM
    I completely agree. I was mainly wondering where the 20% reduction in stock numbers came from. It seemed oddly specific.

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  21. thedavincimode (6,876 comments) says:

    …edit .. and not all grass is the same (not even the same type of grass).

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  22. thedavincimode (6,876 comments) says:

    I think the fwag waver pulled the 20% out of his arse.

    … edit … his organic arse.

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  23. mikenmild (11,719 comments) says:

    Oh did he? And there was me starting to think DPF had made it up.

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  24. queenstfarmer (782 comments) says:

    I was mainly wondering where the 20% reduction in stock numbers came from.

    Not made up. See this paper on the Greens site http://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/BigAffordableClimateChange.pdf that suggests “reducing the average dairy stocking rate from 2.83 cows/ha to 2.3″, which is a 20% reduction (or there abouts).

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  25. mikenmild (11,719 comments) says:

    Thanks for that. I’d observe that it is an average stocking rate, so of course no one is proposing to kill 20% of cows as DPF hysterically suggests.
    I know very little about dairy farming, but I would suppose that there are areas where dairying could still be intensified with minimal environmental impact, and areas where the impact needs to be addressed. How is the clean streams accord coming along?

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