The 7th Labour Government

June 11th, 2012 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

I’m always interested in the people who get involved at an early stage in politics, and what roles they may hold in the future. Over the last month I’ve chatted to a number of people in about who might be the people who make up the 7th Government. Clark was the 5th Government. The next Government will be the 6th Government. This is about the one after that – so think in the 2020s.

Marcus Ganley, currently working for ALP Senator Penny Wong he was previously Goff’s research unit lead and also a former Clark and Tamihere staffer. Marcus signalled his desire to be in Parliament by dipping his toe in the water with his run for Wellington City Council in 2010.

James Caygill has already stood for nomination once and the proud Cantab is waiting for a Christchurch seat to be made available – Christchurch Central could be on the cards. His biggest hurdle is probably his name and the irrational response of many members to a past that James had little control over.

Deborah Mahuta-Coyle – after a disappointing election result, Deb has impressed by not taking the easy route to redemption via a union and has taken on a PR role in the energy sector and will be all the better for spending some time out side of Parliament. The other half of the Mahuta-Coyle combo, Hemi (or James), has also signalled he may one day look to run in his turangawaewae, Rotorua. James is also a former staffer in the Labour Research Unit – he is a popular guy and has paid his dues. They could be the first husband and wife team in Parliament.

Kaine Thompson, young, Maori and smart, he shouldn’t have too much trouble getting selected. A former staffer for Rick Barker and Mallard he remains tight with Cunliffe, Moana Mackey and Charles Chauvel.

Stuart Nash, although apparently quite bruised by his time working for Shearer and probably very disillusioned with his former boss, he remains determined to win Napier and did well against the swing last year. Nash will grow and if elected is a likely Revenue Minister.

Alastair Cameron, the man who replaced Nash, is also a former political advisor to Marian Hobbs. A Wairarapa boy, he had previously signalled a desire to run and while that is probably on hold until 2020, his future candidacy now rests on whether he can deliver the strategy and campaign tactics for Labour to be the biggest party and win in 2014… which surely must be the key metric for him?

Jordan Carter has arguably done more hard-yards than anyone having run in two unwinnable spots in 2008 and 2011 and an almost ridiculous number of Party positions. He is at the core of shaping the current Party policy and his time is rapidly approaching. He will be a key figure in the 7th Labour Government, possibly serving as its Finance Minister.

Conor Roberts has made a name for himself as Len Brown’s strategist and has impressed many along the way. Ideally he will spend some time outside of City Hall and will be a significant force in the Party. In Cabinet, he could be the Steven Joyce type campaign supremo.

Michael Wood is focused on being the next MP for Mt Roskill and remains highly regarded… despite marrying a (former) Alliance activist and being a Christian… could only be because he hasn’t done the cringe-worthy double-barrelled name schtick. He has done his dues within the Party as a local board member in Auckland and candidate in the Wong by-election. A likely Minister of Labour.

Paula Gillon is determined to win back the Northcote electorate, and it does tend to be held by the governing party. Paula is often remembered for her ‘naked politician’ routine from a previous run at City Council, and while this undoubtedly helped get her elected by getting attention, it put her at odds with the staunch feminists who have maintained their dislike of her. May not be a Minister, but could be Chief Whip.

David Talbot had once looked destined to enter Parliament – why else would you take on the thankless task of working for Mike Smith and then Phil Goff as well as standing in Clutha-Southland? Not a natural campaigner though and it seems he may be more focussed on the inner workings of Labour rather than standing. If not an MP, maybe Party President.

Carmel Sepuloni lost Waitakere and any sympathy any thinking person might have had when she laid into Paula Bennett when it looked (for a brief moment) like she had won. Still popular in the party and will be back. Won’t be a front bencher, but will be a Minister.

Tony Milne hasn’t been as visible in recent times in the wider Party but is very active at a grass roots level in Christchurch. He will likely pop up again when the swing heads back towards Labour and would relish a Christchurch seat.

Darren Hughes will likely be rehabilitated and could well be Minister of Health, as well as Leader of the House.

Max Harris could be the country’s Attorney-General. A Rhodes Scholar who is a law clerk to the Chief Justice, and solid Labour supporter. A talented legal mind, and top debater.

Kate Sutton. Has been building up good private sector experience, while still flying the Labour flag. Will be a Minister, probably Women’s Affairs but something more challenging also.

Glenn Riddell. Current Labour Youth Vice President. A rarity in Labour – an entrepeneur, and at a young age. Can work across the political spectrum. A future Minister of Business and Innovation.

Nick Leggett – the young Mayor of Porirua with a background in commercial property stands out who joined the Labour Party when barely out of nappies. Of course the main criticism of Nick from within Labour is that he attracts support from across the entire spectrum… including the dastardly right. A sensible centrist, he could present the best opportunity for Labour to win and then hold Peter Dunne’s seat. The other factor for Nick could be the possibility of being Wellington’s super city mayor in 2019. If an MP, a reforming Local Government Minister.

Ana Coffey, an ally of Leggett on the Porirua City Council of Maori and Pacific Island descent. She is switched on and smart, ‘Ana and her husband are small business owners having run a furniture business she polled ahead of the Deputy Mayor and uber-unionist Ken Douglas in her ward. With her Taranaki roots and home patch of Titahi Bay being the biggest population base for the Te Tai Hauauru, she could be a strong challenger to take that seat in the future.

Paul Eagle a Wellington Southern Ward councillor reintroduced the Wellington Labour Party to the art of door knocking and canvassing as he romped home to victory in 2010. Hugely popular, he was recently rated the most effective councillor by the Wellingtonian. He is sure to rise through the Labour ranks.

Yani Johansson a Christchurch City Councillor who has positioned himself relatively well as the quasi ‘leader of the opposition’ on Council following the quakes. Could succeed Dalziel in Christchurch East.

Adrienne Staples is the Mayor of South Wairarapa and while not overtly Labour, many believe she represents the Party’s best opportunity to win the Wairarapa seat back eventually. Another sensible voice from a regional area would be hugely valuable and she could become a much needed rural voice in a Labour Government.

Aldo Miccio is the young Mayor of Nelson who has handled the pressure of office well. While he is the type who could fit easily into either major Party, he could relish the challenge of winning Nelson for Labour and would be a great addition to Parliament.

Meng Foon has been Mayor of Gisborne since last century and is probably the one person who could turn the East Coast electorate around for Labour. Foon would be a credible potential Minister from day one and would also provide the all important ethnic diversity in the caucus without clogging up a list seat.

Anton Oliver – while Labour doesn’t have a great record with former All Blacks, there seems to be a natural political synergy between Oliver and Labour and the Oxford University graduate could actually be a decent caucus member for Labour if he doesn’t stand for the Greens.

Ross Robertson will still be there, and will finally be Speaker!

Grant Robertson will have had a leadership role in the 6th Labour Government, but will eventually make way for younger blood. Robertson in the 7th Labour Government will be the distinguished Foreign Affairs Minister.

Jacinda Ardern will be leader, and Prime Minister. Leaders need safe seats so like her mentor, she will be the MP for Mt Albert. Ardern has many of the attributes of a young Helen Clark, and will inherit the Clark machinery from Robertson when her time comes.

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53 Responses to “The 7th Labour Government”

  1. George Patton (330 comments) says:

    Bwahahahaha! This is cruelty DPF. How many careers have you just destroyed?

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  2. David Garrett (5,119 comments) says:

    Have you ever actually met Sepuloni DPF? The thought of Clayton “the carpet inspector” Cosgrove’s protege being a Minister is frightening…Quite apart from making Cosgrove her role model, with all that entails, she isn’t very bright.

    And she was also one of the very few Labour members who bowed their heads when the Speaker recited the prayer…that won’t go down at all well with the sisterhood.

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  3. SBY (120 comments) says:

    Quite apart from making Cosgrove her role model, with all that entails, she isn’t very bright.

    David, do you know the one about glasshouses and stones?

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  4. GPT1 (2,042 comments) says:

    James Caygill is in the wrong party, he should stand for National

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  5. Grendel (873 comments) says:

    did DPF leave out the Humour tag? i wasn’t sure it was a joke until he decided socialist cindy was a future PM.

    if she is the future of labour, brilliant. everything i have seen her in she has been absolute pants. She is clearly kept around becuase she is ‘pretty’ so thats going to piss of the traditional labour old boilers. Nikki kaye might be just as dim, but at least she wins.

    i would predict she gets sick of losing all the time, and buggers off to raise a bunch of new socialists, with a well browbeaten man who knows his place.

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  6. JJW (14 comments) says:

    What about the Green members of said Cabinet, DPF?

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  7. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    These do not look like left Wing ideologues so there is hope. I find the labour people are more appealing personalities than national generally.

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  8. dubya (200 comments) says:

    Jacinda as PM? Well, she’s a lazy and mouthy as Lange was, if not quite the orator. So let’s hope there’s a Roger Douglas within this imaginary caucus to actually do some good whilst she’s busy pontificating and grandstanding – sadly quite unlikely.

    Robertson with Foreign Affairs? Sounds like the next Jonathan Hunt in the making, bring on the wine and cheese!

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  9. Ryan Sproull (6,641 comments) says:

    And of course Conor Roberts would bring some of those much-needed broad-shouldered rugged good looks to Parliament.

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  10. kyotolaw (52 comments) says:

    Paula Gillon made zero impact in her recent run for Northcote. I’m in her electorate, but I’ll be damned if I know what she is about at all. And perhaps more surprisingly I see Jonathon Coleman in the weekends at the park playing with his son. He’s very approachable and visible…

    Actually I just checked to see if she had held the seat in the past as you claimed, but no, she hasn’t.

    [DPF: I am not suggesting Paula will beat Coleman. But he will retire at some stage. I did not say she had held the seat. I said Labour had]

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  11. dime (8,742 comments) says:

    Carmel Sepuloni – a disgusting thing. I hope you are wrong DPF

    Darren Hughes – it will be a disgrace if hes allowed back. the beltway seems to have a lot of love for poor lil darren. dont think the “west auckland” man will approve though.

    “mate, you serious?? a naked teenage boy seen running from his house? thats fucked”

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  12. backster (2,000 comments) says:

    There don’t seem to be many self serving Unionists there, indeed have any of them actually done work? The other faction seems well represented.

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  13. dime (8,742 comments) says:

    “Ardern has many of the attributes of a young Helen Clark” lol demerits if i go anywhere that right? :P

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  14. anonymouse (651 comments) says:

    They could be the first husband and wife team in Parliament.

    Wasn’t Michael Cullen married to Anne Collins in 1989 or 1990 before the 1990 election when she retired?

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  15. dubya (200 comments) says:

    “Ardern has many of the attributes of a young Helen Clark”

    Looking forward to her imminent reluctant betrothal to an slightly effemininate bearded academic! (That could be anyone at a Labour Party conference, mind- male or female)

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  16. BeaB (1,944 comments) says:

    That’s a gruesome line-up.

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  17. East Wellington Superhero (1,151 comments) says:

    With folk as craven as these, I hope government spending (as a % of GDP) drops in the next decade, and that transparency in government spending increases.

    All these horrible people just salivating to get the chance to tell everyone else what to do.

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  18. dave (985 comments) says:

    Paula Gillon is determined to win back the Northcote electorate

    Really? That implies she has been an MP for Northcote.

    [DPF: Win back for Labour. It's short hand]

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  19. Mike Readman (353 comments) says:

    Hahahahaha! That’s a funny typo DPF. I’m sure you meant “think in the 2120s”.

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  20. peteremcc (341 comments) says:

    Looking forward to the National version post.

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  21. Graeme Edgeler (3,216 comments) says:

    JJW: What about the Green members of said Cabinet, DPF?

    There will be Green members in the Sixth Labour government, but it won’t go well :-)

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  22. Mobile Michael (363 comments) says:

    No Chris Hipkins or Moana Mackey?

    Like Peter said, a post speculating on the Nats cabinet of the 20s would be interesting – Jami-Lee Ross for PM!

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  23. Manolo (12,607 comments) says:

    In fact, DPF has a soft spot for this motley array of losers.

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  24. Scott Chris (5,672 comments) says:

    Anton Oliver – while Labour doesn’t have a great record with former All Blacks, there seems to be a natural political synergy between Oliver and Labour and the Oxford University graduate could actually be a decent caucus member for Labour if he doesn’t stand for the Greens.

    Hmm, doubt he’ll be a Green. The guy prefers ‘the look’ of the environment over its actual substance.

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  25. Grendel (873 comments) says:

    So do the greens Scott. otherwise the baby MP would not spend his time flying around the country to tell us why we should not fly etc.

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  26. RRM (8,988 comments) says:

    Anton Oliver would provide the House with a welcome shot of the sort of intellectual rigor it is so sadly lacking at the moment.

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  27. Linda Reid (385 comments) says:

    This list is an excellent reason to never vote Labour.

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  28. RRM (8,988 comments) says:

    ^^^That’s a surprising display of negativity coming from a Happiness Coach and Energy Healer, Linda.

    Frankly, I’m shocked.

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  29. Chuck Bird (4,401 comments) says:

    Darren Hughes – it will be a disgrace if hes allowed back. the beltway seems to have a lot of love for poor lil darren. dont think the “west auckland” man will approve though.

    “mate, you serious?? a naked teenage boy seen running from his house? thats fucked”

    Not a problem for Labour. I bet if a naked teenage girl had been seen running from his house the women in Labour would make sure he never got a second chance. Let us not forget the sexual predator had a track record.

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  30. Pauleastbay (5,030 comments) says:

    How many of those fuckers have and or will have had any sort of job other than paid for by the tax payer. Disgusting.

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  31. dime (8,742 comments) says:

    Anton Oliver would fit right into labour. a total nancy boy.

    remember when he had that mean coach and anton compared it to being in dachau

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  32. DJP6-25 (1,228 comments) says:

    Manolo 12:23 pm. So have I. A bog in Ireland.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  33. dubya (200 comments) says:

    Expect to see a ‘hands-on’ campaign by the future Minister of Health for prostate examinations, targeting at-risk groups such as student hostels and scout jamborees.

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  34. David Garrett (5,119 comments) says:

    Dubya: Very naughty, but also very funny… Yep…it’s amazing what you can come back from, so long as you’re an ex MP on the left and not the right eh?

    But I have to be honest, I also found “Dazza” to be very personable…but then I wasn’t exactly his “target market” I guess…

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  35. alex (298 comments) says:

    I take my hat off to DPF, this is a truly masterful piece of troll bait.
    On a side note, I’d be willing to bet two thirds of these people will never make it into Parliament (out of the ones who aren’t already) There are just too many variables to pick winners from this distance. Who during the Bolger government would have guessed that Key would be the next National PM? Or that Joyce would be so prominent?

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  36. flipper (3,261 comments) says:

    With one or two exceptions, they are all career,cradle to the grave, “would be” politicans.

    And, with many on both sides of the House:

    ” You have sat here to long for any good that you are doing. Depart I say, and let’s have done with you.
    In the name of God, go” (1)

    (1) Ollie Cromwell, and subsequently in 1939, Amery to Chamberlain.

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  37. Linda Reid (385 comments) says:

    RRM, you’re shocked that I find the line-up uninspiring? These are the people who could be cabinet ministers and Prime Minister one day – and I should be impressed, but I’m not. I would prefer to see people who have had some success in the real world behind them before they enter politics, and then they only enter politics because they can see that those skills would be useful to the country. (EG John Key, Steven Joyce) A lot on this list are looking at politics as a career choice. I would never be impressed by that.

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  38. Jadis (145 comments) says:

    Alex – you are forgetting that Labour and National are very different in selecting candidates. Nats look at those with parliamentary experience or long term Party involvement sideways and there isn’t a natural graduation process from Young Nat to the senior part of the party (certainly not to the degree that there is in Labour).

    Many in Labour start in Young Labour, are activists in university associations, then move into unions or public sector roles, and are then directly connected to the party. National likes its candidate (generally) to have some real world experience, to have stood on their own and to then return to ‘give back’ to their country by standing as a candidate. So, while an MP may have been a Young Nat it is unusual to have continual service in the Party – the brat pack (and Nikki Kaye) are unusual. There are also those Nat MPs who were never involved in the Party prior to selection.

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  39. backster (2,000 comments) says:

    Dubya……….Did you have in mind the little pony having a marriage of convenience to Darren Hughes thus beating the Maori boy to being the first husband and wife team in parliament.

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  40. alex (298 comments) says:

    @ Jadis, True, Labour does not lack for career politicians. However, even someone like Shearer would hardly have been a pick for future Labour leader before the Mt Albert by-election win.

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  41. cha (3,523 comments) says:

    Well if this dopey fucker can make it into parliament then I suppose anything is possible.

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  42. simo (150 comments) says:

    This lot will lead us all to the abyss…..with the present MO. 10 years from now tax and spend will still not cut the mustard

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  43. BlairM (2,265 comments) says:

    The horror…the horror….

    I can’t imagine any of these people making themselves palatable to the NZ electorate, unless National make dicks of themselves. Sadly, this seems inevitable.

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  44. Positan (376 comments) says:

    He’s a successful businessman, but Aldo Miccio will only be a one term mayor of Nelson. His chances of unseating Nick Smith would be remote to non-existent.

    I hear that it’s possible Jeff Rackley, a first termer on council who wishes he hadn’t stood, might well stand for mayor in 2013 to try and split the vote in Aldo’s favor against the obvious contender, Rachel Reece, whose popularity is way above Aldo’s.

    On the surface, Aldo would do well in Labour. Last November he manipulated a Maori seat for Nelson for the 2013 election without any attempt to consult the public. A petition was raised and a poll overturned that decision, but it cost Nelson ratepayers $90,000. He then back-stabbed three senior councillors, removing them from committee chairmanships so he could promote his acolytes.

    With Nelson’s debt rising to almost $100 million in the past 10 years, Aldo wants to take it to 150 million. He’s been a disaster for Nelson and most in Nelson are well aware of it. He won’t be re-elected, and Labour would want him like an attack of boils.

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  45. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Miccio is behind the push for a merger with Tasman. It is not popular with the locals.

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  46. David Garrett (5,119 comments) says:

    so Joana…off topic I know…but what about those questions I asked you about Margaret Bazley? Is or was she a seductress for the CIA? Easy enough yes/no question I would have thought…

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  47. wat dabney (3,422 comments) says:

    The fact is that Labour is no more than an organised conspiracy against the workers; simply a scheme to legalise theft for the benefit of its unionised state-sector owners.

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  48. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,663 comments) says:

    Do you mean to say Kelvin Davis doesn’t have a show? Or did I miss him in the list?

    David you seem to be stuck in a ‘Helengrad rainbow faction’ time warp. This motley mob would struggle to find Waitakere City let alone Waitakere Man.

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  49. Liberal Minded Kiwi (1,560 comments) says:

    Nobody else see he sneaked in Jordan Carter as a possible minister of finance! I guess that would be a massive boost…. for the Australian economy when the last of us run in terror from this prospect!

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  50. Nick K (913 comments) says:

    Jordan is a socialist but he is a considered and intelligent one (are these oxymorons?).

    No one has pointed out that MMP allows half of these twits to gain these positions. They would be unelectable otherwise.

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  51. Liberal Minded Kiwi (1,560 comments) says:

    Many of these people have worked all their lives to have their noses in the trough. Too many in fact. Former staffers attracted by the bright lights and income increases, perks and a lifestyle beyond anything their qualifications would ever achieve in the private sector.

    This is why we shouldn’t be encouraging them.

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  52. questions (129 comments) says:

    “Jadis

    Alex – you are forgetting that Labour and National are very different in selecting candidates. … …..National likes its candidate (generally) to have some real world experience, to have stood on their own and to then return to ‘give back’ to their country by standing as a candidate.”

    I think you are being willfully ignorant on this subject.

    I don’t think you can call chosen young nats being given plum jobs in various party cronies business’ and law firms, well outside of their ability or merit, “real world experience”.

    This on top of the National Parties anti-democratic section process.

    And too the rest of you I think you will find just as many, if not more, sex-pests amongst the National Party, if only you were to open your eyes and unblock your ears.

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  53. Shazzadude (465 comments) says:

    “Do you mean to say Kelvin Davis doesn’t have a show? Or did I miss him in the list?”

    He retired from politics, although people can come out of retirement I suppose. He’s second person in on the Labour list if a list seat becomes vacant currently.

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