June public polls

July 3rd, 2012 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 58, June 2012

 May saw just five political published – two Roy Morgan a 3 News Reid Research poll, a Herald Digipoll and a Herald on Sunday Key Research poll.

The average of the public polls has National 15% ahead of Labour, up slightly from 14% in May. The centre-right has 61 out of 121 seats on the June average, so could govern without the Maori Party.

Australia has the ALP 10% to 13% behind the coalition.

In the United States Barack Obama is 2% ahead of Mitt Romney in the polls, and projected to also be ahead in likely electoral college votes. However his re-election chances on the Intrade market remains at 55%.

The Republicans remained favoured to keep control in the House (78%) and gain a majority in the Senate (56%).

In the UK the Conservatives are 10% behind Labour.

In Canada the Conservatives are now 2% behind the NDP, whom are projected to form a minority Government if there was an election today.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to stand out in both.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on alcohol minimum pricing, asset sales, alcohol purchase age, Govt management of economy, league tables, same sex adoption, same sex marriage, plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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6 Responses to “June public polls”

  1. Other_Andy (2,263 comments) says:

    “In the United States Barack Obama is 2% ahead of Mitt Romney in the polls, and projected to also be ahead in likely electoral college votes. However his re-election chances on the Intrade market remains at 55%.”

    The Rasmussen Reports doesn’t seem to agree.

    The daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    [DPF: Rasmussen are just one poll. The newsletter takes the average of the polls. In the 2010 US elections, Rasmussen polls were found on average to over-state Republican support by around 4%]

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  2. iMP (2,231 comments) says:

    If Obama is only 2% ahead of a Repub. nominee who hasn’t even been elected yet by the Repub convention, he’s dog tucker.

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  3. Other_Andy (2,263 comments) says:

    [DPF: Rasmussen are just one poll. The newsletter takes the average of the polls. In the 2010 US elections, Rasmussen polls were found on average to over-state Republican support by around 4%]

    Maybe they were off in the 2010 United States Senate and House of Representatives elections but according to them they were (Unless they are talking porkies) spot on with the presidential elections.

    During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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  4. Other_Andy (2,263 comments) says:

    @IMP

    What is going to be one of the deciders is the choice of Vice President for Romney. He has so many good candidates to choose from that it is almost sure his rankings will go up especially because the opposition is bumbling Biden.

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  5. krazykiwi (9,189 comments) says:

    Look at the NZ Greens. Masking their deeply rooted totalitarian beliefs with warm smiles and friendly opposition… and the voters buy it.

    That they always return poorer numbers than they poll is cold comfort.

    One day we’re likely to have these loonies with their hands on some of the controls.

    It would be safter to have a ADHD monkey in the cockpit.

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  6. Paulus (2,493 comments) says:

    More New Zealand rogue polls !

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