Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 59, July 2012
July saw five political polls published – two Roy Morgan polls a 3 News Reid Research poll, One News Colmar Brunton poll and the new Fairfax Ipsos poll.
The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour, up slightly from 15% in June. The centre-right has 62 out of 121 seats on the July average, so could govern without the Maori Party.
Australia has the ALP 8% to 12% behind the coalition.
In the United States Barack Obama is 1% ahead of Mitt Romney in the polls, and remains ahead in likely electoral college votes – but Romney has gained on him. However his re-election chances on the Intrade market improved from 55% to 57%.
The Republicans remained favoured to keep control in the House (85%) but are now at only 49% to gain a majority in the Senate.
In the UK the Conservatives are 11% behind Labour. The Lib Dems have picked up some support.
In Canada the Conservatives have regained the lead from the NDP – ahead by 33% to 32%. The once mighty Liberals languish at 22% and look unable to regain support from the NDP.
The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to stand out in both.
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on alcohol minimum pricing, same sex marriage, asset sales, school achievement, the court system, Auckland CBD rail loop, Christchurch Cathedral, and plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
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