The TV polls

August 5th, 2012 at 6:50 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of the One News and 3 News .

Both polls have National up and Labour and Greens down. Shearer’s preferred PM numbers have also dropped, which will put the acid on him from his caucus.

I think the polls reflect that the Government has got through the various distractions and issues of the first six months, and is now concentrating on implementing its programme. The other factor is that Labour are not a convincing alternative yet, and in fact are going backwards.

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58 Responses to “The TV polls”

  1. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    The polls are unreliable, as fewer New Zealanders have land lines now than in the past.

    This Government is a shambles – I doubt they will survive until November 2014.

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  2. thedavincimode (6,131 comments) says:

    Don’t worry Hamnida. I’m sure that the next poll will show all parties with exactly the same support – just how you would like it.

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  3. Joel Rowan (99 comments) says:

    You can say “the polls are unreliable” because of landline use etc, but the fact that both polls show National moving up, Labour and the Greens moving down means that voters have swung to National. I think it’s highly unlikely that it would be counteracted by an opposite trend in non-landline owners. It’s not the absolute position that’s important, the movement is key.

    Interesting that both polls had the Maori Party up (though only slightly on TV3). Maori voters perhaps disillusioned with Labour’s unwillingness to take a strong and clear position on the water/tribunal issue?

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  4. kowtow (6,723 comments) says:

    Does Notional have a programme?

    And how can Labour be going backwards ,they are progressive,as proven by the marriage equality bill,or is tha a distraction that national welcomes?

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  5. Rick Rowling (776 comments) says:

    And gold medal for today’s knee-jerk “this poll I disagree with is wrong because (insert reason here)” inane comment goes to… Hamnida!

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  6. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    I don’t think all the parties should have the same support. I believe National’s vote is over inflated by the use of land line phone polling.

    I also don’t think the polls should assume ACT and United Future will hold their electorate seats. At an educated guess, there is a 95% Banks/ACT will lose Epsom and an 80% chance Dunne will lose Ohariu.

    As long as the Greens poll over 10%, National will lead Labour.

    The problem for National, as we all know, is coalition partners.

    ACT will go, United Future are on the way out, and the Conservatives will be trouble. Winston will love giving National the run around.

    I predict National will fall to 40 – 42%, and Labour/Greens will form the next Government with 35%/15% of the party vote.

    [DPF: You may be unaware but polling companies weight their results by gender, age and income which counters any bias due to landlines only]

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  7. Than (376 comments) says:

    Hamnida, yes more and more people are giving up landlines, but for the moment most people still have one. Comparing the last election result with the polls leading up to it suggests phone polling is still a reasonable indicator.

    This poll is encouraging. It’s a small shift, but large enough to probably be more than just the margin of error. I’d attribute the rise to JK’s firm stance on Maori water rights – that plays very well with Waitakere Man.

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  8. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Firm stance on Maori water rights? What planet are you on? What I see is a state asset sales back-down.

    Agree Labour needs to reconnect with working to middle class New Zealand. A lot of work combined with some decent policies is required.

    At the moment I think National serves National voters better than Labour serves Labour voters. Also, I would concede that Key connects more with National voters than Shearer does with Labour voters.

    In my predictions, I am not saying Labour would out poll National.

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  9. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Hopefully we can all agree on two things – Go Kim Smith and Nick Willis.

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  10. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    At the moment I think National serves National and Labour voters better than Labour serves anybody except themselves, gays and union leaders.

    There, fixed it or you.

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  11. Than (376 comments) says:

    Where is the backdown on asset sales?

    John Key pointed out the government can ignore the Waitangi Tribunal if it has to, and took a lot of flak from Maori groups for saying it. Bill English asked the Tribunal to report back by the 24th of August, with the implied threat that if they didn’t the sale would proceed anyway. That’s a firm stance.

    Regarding Kim Smith and Nick Willis, I’m embarrassed to say I had to google them (not a big follower of athletics), but yes, best of luck to them both!

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  12. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Labour will get there – Remember state houses, 40 hour working week, minimum wage, paid parental leave, working for families, Kiwisaver.

    Hopefully the next generation of Labour policies do New Zealand proud.

    OneTrack – Can’t agree, Tax cuts for the rich, increase in GST, student loan and allowance changes, asset sales, etc, are not good for Labour supporters.

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  13. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Than – halting the partial sale of Mighty River Power. It could be a good move by Key, given how anti asset sales New Zealanders are. Back-downs are already a part of this Government, for example, mining on conservation land and class size.

    I think in part this is what makes Key popular – he has the ability to admit a policy is unpopular, back-down, and move on. Others would be much more stubborn and damage their party in the process.

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  14. Fairfacts Media (370 comments) says:

    B-B-B-B-B-but didn’t the Sunday Star-Times say that John Key was turning off the country’s women last week?
    How little credibility has that paper got left?

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  15. Pete George (21,828 comments) says:

    Hamnida @ 7.48 pm
    Within a month of the last election there were ‘educated guesses’ that Banks, Dunne and NZF would fail. What did you predict then?

    If you were educated you would know that making predictions over two years before an election is futile, or wishful thinking.

    And your ‘educated guess’ that National may back down from selling MRP shares and your Labour optimism suggests you are guessing, you are party pushing.

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  16. Than (376 comments) says:

    Hamnida, you’re getting ahead of yourself. No halt to the sale of Mighty River has been announced, nor does it seem likely. The Maori Council or some other group could try and get a court injunction halting the sale, but that’s a pretty long shot.

    As to public opposition to asset sales… have another look at the poll results. The whole election campaign plus the 9 months since have had National carrying on with the partial asset sales, with Labour/the Greens making as much noise about it as they can. If people are so strongly opposed to asset sales, why do they continue to vote National?

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  17. KH (686 comments) says:

    National is doing badly in government. What they have going for them is how god awful the rest are.

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  18. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Pete George – Last election – thought NZ First would get 5% after the tea pot scandal, thought Banks would get Epsom after Key’s message to National voters, was surprised Dunne held his seat. Thought Charles would take it. So 2/3.

    I thought I heard Key say a September float was highly unlikely given Maori Council/Waitangi Tribunal Hearing.

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  19. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    Hamnida, marginal tax rate cuts for all taxpayers, not just “the rich” ( envy, envy, envy,…..)

    Are you going to be the one to tell potential labour voters, “vote for us and we will put your taxes up. Because we know better than you what to do with money”

    Yeah, I’m convinced. But, I guess there are enough useful idiots out who might fall for that line. They did in Auckland, and now they are getting their rates demands from King Len they are bitching. FFS, they voted a lefty in, what the deal did they think would happen. (thats a rhetorical question – obviously they didn’t think at all)

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  20. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    I think the vast majority of working New Zealanders are worse off now than they were four years ago.

    Hard to mobilise 180,000 left leaning voters with polls that show National around 50%.

    Therefore, Labour will need good policies and an election strategy to ensure people vote.

    On another topic, Obama doing well in U.S after better than expected job growth. Hard to see a Romney victory.

    I think the left is very transparent – higher taxes on the rich, more social spending. Not trying to hide anything.

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  21. Pete George (21,828 comments) says:

    Hamnida, Dunne holding Ohariu was the most likely of those three if you cared to look for facts rather than rely on hope,

    And the tea pot nonsense was what, a couple of weeks out from the election. So that reinforces my point that making guesses this far out are a bit pointless.

    Do you think Labour will try a stronger candidate in Ohariu next time?

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  22. Frederick (39 comments) says:

    Oh yes people are outraged by asset sales. Let me see …the nationwide march had people coming out in their thou….oops hundreds. What 1000 in Auckland, 400 in Christchurch, 200 in Wellington. Haven’t seen such crowds since the 1981 Springbok protests.
    Then there were the protestors at the National party confence …79 I understand. Wow ….the masses are angry!!

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  23. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Well, I guess you think I was wrong (and I was on that count). I honestly thought Dunne’s time was up.

    I think Charles will stand and win next time. If I’m wrong again, I’ll donate $100 to a charity of your choice (assumes Charles and Dunne stand for clarity of payout).

    I only thought NZ First would make it after Peters’ gained traction on the tea pot saga. If that hadn’t happened, I don’t think NZ First would have made 5%.

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  24. Griff (6,263 comments) says:

    well done hamineggs

    higher taxes on the rich, more social spending. Not trying to hide anything.
    And they are falling in the polls with that aren’t they
    Lets hope they keep on course in till the next election

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  25. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    I was at the Wellington protest, 2000 – 4000.

    I was good to see Kim Dotcom on a march recently.

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  26. Pete George (21,828 comments) says:

    I think the vast majority of working New Zealanders are worse off now than they were four years ago.

    Some will be, you know, world financial mess. But many will be little different apart from being convinced by Greens and Labour that they deserve more given to them. I’m better off due to substantially lower mortgage rates, and many others will be likewise.

    Hard to mobilise 180,000 left leaning voters with polls that show National around 50%.

    Hard to mobilise National voters who thought they would stroll in.
    Hard to mobilise those who didn’t want National to get 50% but didn’t want Labour.
    Hard to mobilise those who couldn’t give a stuff.

    The ‘if only’ vote is one of the sillier excuses. In fact if people were strongly against National getting 50% they would have voted against it – some did, hence the NZF success.

    Labour were not seen as a credible option. They wasted three years. They seem to be trying their hardest to repeat that.

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  27. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    Kim Dotcom, you mean a rich prick?

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  28. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    I am not a Labour member, but I assumed the strategy was for Goff to hold a steady ship and hope for 35%. Not win, but avoid a Bill English/2002 mess.

    Overall, I was surprised at the low voter turn out. There were big issues like asset sales and the weather was good.

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  29. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    OneTrack – I have a lot of time for Mr Dotcom.

    $1,000,000 donation to Red Cross after Christchurch earthquake. Seems like a good sort.

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  30. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Fascinating.

    People are so gullible.

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  31. Unimatrix.Zero (14 comments) says:

    Hi all

    Something to note about political polls – quite often polls will tend to show the proportion of New Zealanders ‘for or against’ something. This figure will OFTEN be related to the strength or intensity of New Zealanders’ feelings, but not always as strongly as you might think.

    Consider the following scenarios…

    1. Let’s say that, out of every 100 people, 66 are against the partial sale of assets when asked, but just 10 are against it so strongly that it would impact how they would vote if an election were held tomorrow.

    2. Now let’s say that, out of every 100 people, 66 are against the partial sale of assets when asked, and 40 are against it so strongly that it would impact how they would vote if an election were held tomorrow.

    Quite often polls will ask ‘for or against’ questions – in which case they would provide exactly the same result under both Scenario One and Two above. However only under Scenario Two would opposition to the policy have a large impact on party support.

    Actually the same could be true of party support – the strength of support for a party may be slowly eroding (ie, how STRONGLY people feel about their support for that party), but if voters don’t see a viable alternative then ‘percent support’ for that party may not actually change much at all in polls. It can be difficult to know when this is happening.

    Surveys CAN measure strength of opinion, but political polls have quite a few other questions to ask within a limited timeframe (at a time when people are trying to enjoy their weekend, or have dinner, or feed and bath the kids). Also – strength of opinion is more complex and can be difficut to report clearly in a short TV segment.

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  32. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    Hamnida, he may well be, but I thought the party line was all rich pricks are bad and should be taxed to within an inch of their life.

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  33. marcw (206 comments) says:

    @ Ham’n bad eggs.

    Are you for real? I didn’t think it was school holiday time, but are you really Phil… … … reincarnated.
    You come across as a fool sorry, if you want to be taken seriously please use rational arguments.

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  34. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    Hamnida @8:57 – And you don’t think that maybe the low voter turnout might imply that many voters actually don’t give a stuff about asset sales, I mean 49% share sales.

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  35. bhudson (4,720 comments) says:

    I think the left is very transparent – higher taxes on the rich, more social spending. Not trying to hide anything.

    Borrowing, Hamnida. The left is alwys trying to hide the borrowing that is necessary for their spend and hope philosophy.

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  36. Tom Jackson (2,262 comments) says:

    “The polls are unreliable, as fewer New Zealanders have land lines now than in the past. This Government is a shambles.”

    You underestimate voter idiocy: the most common pollutant in the New Zealand environment. The government is indeed incompetent, but there is a general dearth of competence in the New Zealand parliament, as there is in foreign parliaments. For some reason western democracies stopped electing effective leaders and started electing poll-watching careerists instead. This was all right as long as the general level of prosperity kept rising (no matter the intricacies of distribution), but it’s been useless since 2008.

    What we are seeing is the voting behaviour of the haves trying desperately to keep what they have in the face of a stagnant economy and rising prices. Ceterus paribus, National is the major party least likely to engage in confiscatory behaviour, and for that reason are attracting a larger share of the vote. That’s it. There really is no other reason for National’s buoyancy in the polls. National could have a cabinet minister exposed as a paedophile and nothing would change. People will still vote for them until the economic crisis passes, purely out of fear that they may not be able to afford to keep their assets. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were socialists voting National because they were scared that they might not be able to keep up their mortgage payments or keep their pensions.

    From an individual point of view, this is rational behaviour. Collectively, it’s nuts. Why else do you think this recession/depression has gone on for so long?

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  37. Nostalgia-NZ (4,697 comments) says:

    Not abandoning the life boat even when it’s taking water, while all other chaos survives – hold tight.

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  38. Reid (15,594 comments) says:

    Shearer will be really suffering from this. Liarbore fools live and die by the polls. I wonder if this is why Hulun chose to take a holiday at this moment, here? Seriously.

    Hulun would never tolerate a Cunliffe govt here. She would think that such an administration would undo so much of her work it wouldn’t be funny. She would fight that, to the limited extent she cared, given she is also fighting to become next S-G of the UN which she might, since she is Putin’s protege.

    But I think, that’s why she’s come back here now. Personally. And der. Don’t expect her to hold a Shearer support rally. But that’s why she’s here.

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  39. duggledog (1,117 comments) says:

    Hamnida “I think the left is very transparent – higher taxes on the rich, more social spending. Not trying to hide anything”

    Maybe this is why the left can’t get any traction?

    These are not popular attributes right now.

    Kiwis have been paying down debt and joining kiwi saver, Key is resonating with them.

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  40. Anthony (737 comments) says:

    The number of households giving up landlines has been a gradual trickle – and to get decent broadband you need a landline and you don’t save much by giving up a fixed line phone number. The idea that landlines disappearing has suddenly skewed the polls is total rubbish!

    We can all see now how much money would be raised by reversing the very small tax cuts the rich got (after taking into account the GST increase) – quite likely none at all!

    Partial asset sales, yawn. Waitangi Tribunal with no legal authority raises some water rights issues, yawn. Really, very few people care. The poll results are therefore no surprise at all!

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  41. tvb (3,945 comments) says:

    Labour has a fixation with side issues that do not matter much to NZers especially the gay marriage debate. They are trying to widen that issue to a human rights issue but the reality is the issue does not matter to the vast majority of people.

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  42. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Tom Jackson – Good points. If I voted from a completely selfish perspective, it would be National. Slightly more money in my pocket and less chance of attacking my assets. But I agree, collectively as a Nation, it’s nuts.

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  43. fish_boy (152 comments) says:

    What is the undecided vote? If more voters are bring turned off by National and Labour than are simply switching sides then that could affect the result. But my view is the poll indicates the devastatingly lazy incompetence of the current Labour front bench and the hopelessness of the Pagani strategy of doing nothing, sitting on your arse and hoping John Key catches the bubonic plague and then complacently letting Labour drift to power.

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  44. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    Hamnida,

    Your claim about the polls is crap. Before the last election several of your fellow lefties were constantly making the same claim, telling anyone who would listen that National was in a shambles and that a left Wing victory was assured. They were WRONG. As are you, You have no evidence for your claim. It’s just arrogant refusal to face facts you don’t like. The Cyrene polls are likely pretty close to the mark.

    Your economic policies are selfish, stupid, and deeply unjust.

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  45. Lee01 (2,171 comments) says:

    No idea what a Cyrene is. Man was not built to type on an iPod. Plus the infernal
    machine won’t let me edit.

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  46. UpandComer (496 comments) says:

    Hamnida what do you think about the fact that due to WFF 40-50% of taxpayers in NZ pay no net tax, or less then 5%? Is that ‘fair’ do you think? Should these people be able to use the roads/schools/hospitals/libraries etc?

    Also, the ‘no landline’ thing is pretty stupid. The poorest families I know, who are dirt dirt dirt poor but use their resources well, have landlines – I remember that line along with ‘but look when the big urban centres come through National is toast’. How did that work out.

    What most educated NZers will look at is that we were growing at near 5% from 2000-2005 as a result of National policy in the 90′s. Then Helen Clark poked her big beak into economic policy that Micheal cullen, who actually should have been Labour leader, was handling nicely (knowing that national left him with a golden goose). All of a sudden from 2005 growth nose-dived to 3% and then went down to a nadir in 2009 of – 3% due to unsustainable spending and zero-growth policies that National has tidied up and turned around.

    @ Tom Jackson – your post is incredibly ironic because basically you illustrate in a prime fashion the key component you see in NZ voters. Gosh if only the uber competent Tom Jackson would stand for parliament, all woes of the Western world would be sorted. You don’t know what you are talking about frankly, and this ignorance is made all the more wretched by the accompanying arrogance.

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  47. Chuck Bird (4,415 comments) says:

    “But I think, that’s why she’s come back here now.”

    Don’t you think she might be missing her husband, Peter.

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  48. UpandComer (496 comments) says:

    All I know is that my Lesbian mate went to a school in Gisbourne.

    Helen turned up to that school an unprecedented 5 plus times per year towards the end of her reign.

    One of the teachers there left her husband and now works on Helen’s UN staff.

    No issues whatsoever with this by the way, just interesting.

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  49. Paulus (2,299 comments) says:

    More rogue Polls ! again.

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  50. mudrunner (82 comments) says:

    I see the duty left wing minders of this blog have achieved their aim yet again.
    “Divert the discussion from the damaging blog in anyway you can, get a good bout of ad hominem or something like it going”

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  51. emmess (1,334 comments) says:

    Two points

    Alot of the people I know who have abandoned landlines are rich.

    Kim Dot Com marching against asset sales eh? How apt? Some might say what he does is ‘stealing other peoples assets’ or atleast a lot more sensible case to make than that privatisation is.

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  52. Tom Jackson (2,262 comments) says:

    “your post is incredibly ironic because basically you illustrate in a prime fashion the key component you see in NZ voters. Gosh if only the uber competent Tom Jackson would stand for parliament, all woes of the Western world would be sorted. You don’t know what you are talking about frankly, and this ignorance is made all the more wretched by the accompanying arrogance.”

    No argument from you means that your post isn’t worth taking seriously. In what possible world is self interested voting leading to collective calamity not an idiotic thing to do? Do people with assets tend not to vote conservative in harder times? (a seeming paradox that many on the left can’t get their heads around) If you want to criticize my views, go ahead and dispute those points. Mere assertion of the opposite is not good enough.

    And I would personally rather die than stand for parliament, nor do I have an easy fix for our problems (although a general solution is not too hard to work out). Neither was entailed by anything I said in my previous post. Analogy: we’re pretty good at noticing appallingly bad doctors, even if we aren’t doctors ourselves.

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  53. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    I believe the tax system (including working for families, GST and student loans) could be easily restructured for the long-term benefit of all New Zealanders.

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  54. rg (190 comments) says:

    Anyone who thinks that Epsom voters would rather have a labour- Green govt than a National one and not vote for the ACT candidate is thick.
    No poll has ever got Epsom right. The pollsters have got it so wrong for so long they have no credibility. Any poll needs to be in the context of the existing situation. Unless the poll question does that it is meaningless.
    How popular or otherwise the ACT candidate is in Epsom is irrelevant. The equation is simple for the voters in Epsom, Candidate vote for ACT gives a National Govt, anything else gives a Labour- Green govt. In any case the people in Epsom voted overwhelmingly for Banksie as Mayor. The left hate him and the left hate ACT. They will do all they can to get that Epsom seat away from ACT, because that will give them a Labour govt, and the pollsters will continue to help them it seems with ACT sitting on 0 seats in your coloured chart David.

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  55. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    rg – Don’t blame the pollsters, blame the Epsom voters. The voters were asked who will you vote for? 70% said Goldsmith. Then on election day the truth comes out. They were to embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for Banks. This is known as the JFK affect.

    Two months after the JFK assassination, a major poll asked U.S voters who they voted for. 80% said JFK, but he only got 49.7% of the popular vote.

    ?????? What can we learn from this? Many voters in Epsom are dishonest. I wouldn’t be surprised if they elected Colin Craig.

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  56. s.russell (1,486 comments) says:

    Two points of caution in interpreting these polls:

    1) At each of the last four elections National has come out with a significantly smaller share of the vote than polls immediately prior had projected.

    2) The recent Fairfax poll may provide a partial explanation. When undecided voters were further probed on preferences it turned out that many were lefties undecided whether to support Labour or the Greens. The lack of popular alternatives to National on the right meant there was less confusion there. Traditionally, it has been presumed by pollsters that undecided voters end up splitting in the same proportions as decided ones. This may no longer be the case.

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  57. Unimatrix.Zero (14 comments) says:

    Hi s.russell

    If you take a close look at the polls you might be surprised at what they do when it comes to undecided voters.

    Just saying ;)

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  58. noskire (797 comments) says:

    What happened to the company called Rogue Poll that Helen Clark always used to complain about?

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