Conservatives and Epsom

September 24th, 2012 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

Isaac Davidson reports:

The has refused to say whether it will compete for Act leader John Banks’ seat.

After its first annual conference at the weekend, the party said it was focused on reaching the 5 per cent party vote threshold.

Leader Colin Craig believes the party has already won votes from disillusioned Act supporters and that its fiscal and moral conservatism will appeal to the Epsom electorate.

“I think Epsom is quite a morally conservative electorate,” he said yesterday. “If you look at the ethnic breakdown of Epsom, particularly the Asian community … they are very strong on family, they are very strong on business, and on law and order. They are a good fit for Conservative.”

Actually I would say Epsom is more liberal than other electorates such as Tamaki.

My belief is that Paul Goldsmith will become MP for Epsom at the next election, so long as his name is on the ballot paper. I don’t think Epsom wants to become the tactical voting capital of NZ.

If I was advising the Conservatives, I’d tell them to look for a seat where it is likely a National MP will retire in 2014. Their chances are best there.

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59 Responses to “Conservatives and Epsom”

  1. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    No chance of 5%.

    NZ First probably gone too.

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  2. dubya (229 comments) says:

    I doubt the infamous Remuera Rackets Rooter is likely to favour moral conservatism.

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  3. Manolo (13,580 comments) says:

    Let’s hasten the process by forcing shameless Banks’ hand: Neville Key should sack him.

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  4. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    I think they’ve got a reasonable chance of getting to 5%, or 4% or whatever it is in 2014. Craig has heaps of money (unlike most parties) and he is gradually targeting populist issues, albeit inconsistently. He also attracts a disproportionate amount of media attention.

    NZ First have a reasonable chance of staying too, depending on how Winston holds up for another couple of years and how the rest of the NZF MPs measure up.

    Both are also dependent on the media election lottery.

    Currently there’s more chance of both succeeeding due to National’s accumulating stuff-ups, Labour’s continuing failure to impress. And if Greens look more like being in Government they should have a lot more scrutiny put on their influence.

    There’s a lot of voting territory currently up for grabs.

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  5. barry (1,317 comments) says:

    whataymean …” I don’t think Epsom wants to become the tactical voting capital of NZ.”

    They have been the tactical voting capital of NZ for quite a few elections now.

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  6. dime (9,856 comments) says:

    Have we seen any economic policy from the conservatives yet?

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  7. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    The Conservative Party have very few published policies, and no economic policy – http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/policies.php

    The only economic position I have seen Craig give is being against the asset share floats.

    In there first conference, apart from a focus on simptious food they were going to discuss policy…

    FRIDAY EVENING
    We would like to kick off the weekend with a banquet dinner and a presentation from Keynote Speakers and of course our Party Leader Colin Craig.

    SATURDAY AM
    Saturday morning Workshop and Think Tank sessions will include topics such as Health, Policy Development, Defence, The Treaty, Business Initiatives, Mining, and Social Welfare to name a few.

    LUNCH

    SATURDAY AFTERNOON
    After a sumptuous lunch, you can further participate in a Q&A session to a panel of well-known political analysts, rounded off with a formal address from another well-known speaker. Members will then be invited to participate in our Annual General Meeting

    SATURDAY PM
    The Saturday evening session will be open to the general public to attend to hear our Keynote Speaker and our very own Colin Craig. Live entertainment will be playing during our mix and mingle time and a light supper will be provided.

    http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/

    Serious policy development takes quite a bit of time and effort – but if they want everything decided by referenda then party policy might not be so important.

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  8. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,888 comments) says:

    “If I was advising the Conservatives, I’d tell them to “………get a new leader whose mouth is smaller than his or her feet.”

    I wonder when someone will ask Mr Craig if the church to which he belongs permits women to take up positions of leadership?

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  9. KiwiGreg (3,249 comments) says:

    ” I don’t think Epsom wants to become the tactical voting capital of NZ.”

    Nah we love it, makes us feel like our votes count. BTW “you’re welcome” for us getting it right :)

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  10. barry (1,317 comments) says:

    Adolf Fiinkensein at 1:41 pm

    If his church doesnt allow women in leadership roles then the women are very welcome to fuck off (if they do want leadership roles and are still remaining there) and start their own church where they dont let men into leadership roles.
    I wasnt aware that belonging to a church you dont agree with was still compulsory…….

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  11. Cunningham (843 comments) says:

    The left will destroy him in the election campaign if they see him as a threat as they did with Brash and the excl breth. The general public don’t like religion being mixed with politics. He has already said enough stupid statements to rule his party out I reckon.

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  12. Than (463 comments) says:

    I agree with Cunningham. Colin Craig’s statements on Gay Marriage have firmly branded his party as religious conservatives, and historically these parties don’t do well in New Zealand. My guess is they’ll get something between 2-4%. If the threshold gets lowered to 3% they have even odds of being in parliament, if it’s 4% they have an outside shot. But if the threshold stays at 5% they have no chance.

    Which is an excellent reason to keep the threshold at 5%.

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  13. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    Which is an excellent reason to keep the threshold at 5%.

    No, it’s an excellent reason to lower the threshold, so significant proportions of voters aren’t exluded from being represented.

    Democracy is about giving everyone a reasonable chance of being represented, not gerrymandering voting systems to suit your own preferences.

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  14. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,888 comments) says:

    Barry, you might like to stop foaming at the mouth and consider the wives of said members.

    Extremists of any brand, fundamentalist or multi-culty liberals are all equally repugnant. The former think the Bible starts and ends at Leviticus and the latter all expect salvation without repentance.

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  15. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    Jezuz I am so over these repetitive Progressive arseholes who obsessively attack Christians any time there is the slightest opportunity.

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  16. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    Jezuz I am so over these repetitive Christian arseholes who obsessively attack everyone else any time there is the slightest opportunity.

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  17. Than (463 comments) says:

    Pete George: The biggest flaw of MMP is that proportional representation frequently results in disporportional influence. If the choice is between some votes not influencing the final makeup of parliament (which is not the same as denying people representation) or 3% dictating to 97%, I know which I find less objectionable.

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  18. jonno1 (81 comments) says:

    Mr George, your comment at 3.46 was uncalled for. Yes, I realise you were making an attempt at humour, and yes, RB uses colourful language at times, but scroll up a bit and you’ll see that he is precisely right. In any case, I thought your own leader was a Christian (but perhaps not), while RB has repeatedly stated that he is agnostic, not Christian.

    Back on topic, I’m an Epsom voter and lifelong National voter who voted Act/Conservative last year, simply because National has lost its way. And I will vote “strategically” next time round as well. I wonder whether we actually need a Labour/Green (or Green/Labour) coalition to wake up the right – just look at what’s happening in Australia.

    Finally, I understand from media reports that Colin Craig is not a church-goer, but even if he were, surely that’s a good thing, not a bad one.

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  19. MH (711 comments) says:

    If Epsom inSultzers are an example of clever strategic/tactical voting then I’ll need to eat another hat,what have we had so far putting their names in my hat…Worth and Banks, Fletcher,Penny Bright,Keith Locke and Hide.
    Dear NZ-they ain’t us,they are our experimental Newfies. If you have a crack pot idea on how the election will go,or need a poll go to Epsom,put it in the newspaper or sow the seeds of an idea on TV and these electourists will follow. IF David Shearer came through Epsom blowing on a flute they’d all follow. It’s a training ground to become the Mayor of Auckland,how “Culpability” Brown got thru I just dunno.

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  20. Manolo (13,580 comments) says:

    P.G., I look forward to the day you’re also over the “caring” violent Muslims, the same ones you love to appease.

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  21. jonno1 (81 comments) says:

    MH (4.37) – would you mind providing an English-language version of your post? Thanks!

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  22. rakuraku (162 comments) says:

    Winston Peters could be the bolter in the Epsom Handicap.

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  23. Griff (7,517 comments) says:

    Q: How many conseronutters does it take to change a lightbulb.

    A: Change? Conservonutters dont do change. If it worked well 50 years ago it can bloody well keep working forever.

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  24. rg (210 comments) says:

    You would have to have rocks instead of a brain if you think that the people of Epsom will not vote for the ACT candidiate. When given a choice of a Labour govt and a National MP or a National govt and an ACT MP they will choose the ACT MP.
    Looking forward to the pollsters making fools of themselves over the ACT vote in Epsom as they have done in every election.

    Why did the media ask about the Conservatives standing in Epsom? Why did they not ask if they would stand in Botany?
    The Conservatives would be mad to choose Epsom, they would split the vote, Labour would be in power and both ACT and Conservatives would be out of parliament.
    The only reason the media are tryingto suggest this is to attack ACT

    It is not even a story, if I was a journo I could write an article saying David Farrar has not ruled out buying a BMW. It is pretty cheap journalism to put in the public mind something you wish for by saying it has not been ruled out. And nothing can be ruled out usually.

    Has John Key ruled out resigning before the next election? Of course he can’t rule that out, he may get cancer or whatever, but my point is that it is not a story, it is not journalism to write that the Conservatives have not ruled out standing in Epsom.
    Are we now going to have speculation running rife that John Key has not ruled out resigning? You see how a biased media can stir up trouble.

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  25. RRM (9,834 comments) says:

    I wonder how well Kolin Kwaig’s message of “Kiwi women are all sluts” would go down in Epsom? Time will tell I guess… :lol:

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  26. MH (711 comments) says:

    wot you only speak Maungafoul?

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  27. Elaycee (4,375 comments) says:

    rakuraku:

    Winston Peters could be the bolter in the Epsom Handicap.

    Epsom needs Peters as much as they need a suburb-wide outbreak of acute dysentery.

    With similar outcomes… :D

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  28. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    Q: How many light bulbs does it take to change a Progressive?

    A: It doesn’t matter. Some morons will never see the light no matter how brightly it shines.

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  29. RRM (9,834 comments) says:

    It’s not gay if you only hump his leg, eh Wedbaiter? ;-)

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  30. OneTrack (3,023 comments) says:

    Cunningham – “The left will destroy him in the election campaign if they see him as a threat as they did with Brash and the excl breth”

    The left or the MSM? Is there a difference?

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  31. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    OneTrack

    No!

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  32. minto57 (197 comments) says:

    The godless are so quick to persecute christians while espousing
    equality.

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  33. duggledog (1,528 comments) says:

    I agree with Cunningham & Than. After Craig’s statements about gay marriage it will be clear to disaffected Nat voters that he’s not ‘the one’. Unless ACT can pull something out of the hat, I don’t know whether they can sustain past the next election.

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  34. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    minto 57

    It is quite possible that if the Christians stayed in their churches & kept their moonbat beliefs to themselves that no one would bother them…..certainly I regard their personal tenets of faith as their own private business.

    BUT when they use this & other secular forums to push their right to dictate the moral standards of the rest of us they open themselves to just criticism & this is what they get.

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  35. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    “BUT when they use this & other secular forums to push their right to dictate the moral standards of the rest of us”

    Just as you do you blind hypocrite. How can you be so thick as to not see it?

    You secular progressives are far more obsessive about your atheism than Christians are concerning their religion.

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  36. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    Reddy

    I don’t care what the Christians do/don’t do within their own church & community. Anything! It’s really all the same to me.

    BUT what I do/don’t do pisses them off so they in their pious righteousness want to impose THEIR standards on me.

    Now that wasn’t too hard was it?

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  37. Urban Redneck (234 comments) says:

    “I don’t care what the Christians do/don’t do within their own church & community”

    As long as they don’t dare offer an opinion contrary to the left-wing secular progressive pieties you are so clearly enamored with.

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  38. LabourDoesntWork (287 comments) says:

    Jezuz I am so over these repetitive Progressive arseholes who obsessively attack Christians any time there is the slightest opportunity.

    Progressives are such bigots. I’d vote for a Muslim or an atheist if they believed in limited government.

    Perhaps this nation’s progressive fog and banal state of political debate between the two main parties, stems from an underlying anti-Christian bigotry in this country? Certainly it’s rife in the media. It’s what gives progressives an easy way to discredit the ideas (social and economic conservatism) that threaten the bipartite ruling class, afterall.

    Ergo, it’s no surprise that NO ONE is talking about religion on this one as much as progressives/social liberals. Not Colin Craig or anyone on his side.

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  39. Kea (12,410 comments) says:

    Urban Redneck, not believing in your primitive superstitions does not imply someone is “left-wing”. It simply means they are intellectually superior to you and able to think in a rational way. Religion and politics are different things, at least in NZ they are, no thanks to primitives like yourself.

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  40. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    National are going to have to make the party vote preferential if they want to win again. Though I have to say I am so frustrated with them that I am at the point of not caring if they do.

    As for the Conservatives, I welcome any party which steers nutters away from any source of real power and influence. But you would think someone like Colin Craig would have the money for a better media advisor than what he appears to have now. Also, people keep forgetting that he is proposing to ban foreign investment in New Zealand, which is far loonier than anything he has said so far about gay people.

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  41. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    Hey Blair, fuck you and fuck your lefty media mates.

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  42. Mark (1,480 comments) says:

    Act is fucked largely due to the job brash did on them when leader of national. (he then finished them off with the ill fated coup) so national is going to have to look for a new partner. Act in part suited because they were ideologically liberal whilst bein economically conservative. But the Conservatives are whack jobs who think NZ women are promiscuous and school funding should be cut. The Maori party has to navigate the exit of Turia and sharpies which won’t be easy given their personal vote. The nags may have to get more than 50% on their own to govern next time.

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  43. ChardonnayGuy (1,199 comments) says:

    I think that ACT should pressure Banks into serving only a single term and then announce his impending, permanent retirement from politics, handing over to someone with a cleaner public image like (probably) Catherine Isaacs, who would be more representative of the electorate and appeal to female voters. Otherwise, he will probably face an uphill battle for r-election. I suspect Paul Goldsmith may end up winning the seat for National. As for Mr C, one would hope not. Where is a responsible, and fiscally conservative government, going to get the money for all of these populist rabble-rousing referenda that the Con Party wants? Let’s face it, the Conservatives are a perfect satellite party…for New Zealand First.

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  44. Manolo (13,580 comments) says:

    The crook Banks should resign now for the sake of decency (a virtue unknown to him).

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  45. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    Redbaiter… I am loath to address New Zealand’s most notorious troll, but really, you should wash out that potty mouth. Your definition of Lefty seems to be “anyone who disagrees with you”, which is basically everybody. I’m not sure why you are so mad that I am criticising Colin Craig for essentially having a left wing isolationist economic policy. How is that going to be beneficial to New Zealand? More importantly, how is that going to add value to any future National government? I put it to you that it will not in any way whatsoever.

    I can only conclude that you have no ideological consistency, and are, in fact, quite mad.

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  46. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    “Redbaiter… I am loath to address New Zealand’s most notorious troll,”

    Well make sure you don’t in future.

    If there is one thing that bores me to tears it’s the obsessive and arrogant anti-Christian rantings of secular progressives.

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  47. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    If there is one thing that bores me to tears it’s the obsessive and arrogant anti-Christian rantings of secular progressives.

    I don’t see what that has to do with me, or what I said Redbaiter. I am neither anti-Christian, nor secular, nor “progressive”, and nothing I originally said could, or should, be construed that way. If you are going to swear at people you disagree with, at least have the intelligence to correctly address the argument rather than railing against other people you disagree with who bear no resemblance to me.

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  48. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    “nothing I originally said could, or should, be construed that way.”

    Oh gawd, I thought I told you to leave me alone. And yet here you are again apparently unable to control your compulsion to engage with “New Zealand’s most notorious troll”…

    I mean if you’re so clever in identifying trolls, shouldn’t you have more sense than to correspond with them?

    Anyway….

    Here’s what you said that I “construed” as being anti-Christian and/ or progressive-

    -The Conservative Party is a bunch of insane people.

    -No one in the Conservative Party should ever be permitted near the reins of power because they are all insane.

    -Colin Craig says stupid things and this is his fault (rather than the left wing media’s fault) for not having a better media adviser.

    -Colin Craig is insane (a loon) because he holds “unapproved” views on homosexuals.

    Given that Craig’s Conservative Party is recognised as a party that primarily promotes Christian philosophy as the basis for its political policies, why wouldn’t your comments above, (especially those claiming it is a sign of madness to oppose homosexual marriage), identify you as an anti-Christian bigot and a Progressive ??

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  49. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    “I have to say I am so frustrated with them that I am at the point of not caring if they do”

    Yeah remember all those debates when Helen was PM with national sycohants saying “Liabor would do anyting to hold onto power”…..

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  50. Griff (7,517 comments) says:

    Q Red why does the commentary on here love your rabid extremism so much.

    A its because you are so one eyed and extreme you are a parody of your own views

    Often you brighten an over wise dull thread with your rabid bile speckle diatribes keep up the good work and please don’t take your to self serious we don’t

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  51. Johnboy (16,077 comments) says:

    I do! :)

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  52. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    Griff

    I know what you mean yet the old goat does have purpose left in his miserable life……he makes the rest of us seem totally sane by contrast. :)

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  53. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    Here’s what you said that I “construed” as being anti-Christian and/ or progressive-

    -The Conservative Party is a bunch of insane people.

    -No one in the Conservative Party should ever be permitted near the reins of power because they are all insane.

    -Colin Craig says stupid things and this is his fault (rather than the left wing media’s fault) for not having a better media adviser.

    -Colin Craig is insane (a loon) because he holds “unapproved” views on homosexuals.

    Given that Craig’s Conservative Party is recognised as a party that primarily promotes Christian philosophy as the basis for its political policies, why wouldn’t your comments above, (especially those claiming it is a sign of madness to oppose homosexual marriage), identify you as an anti-Christian bigot and a Progressive ??

    But… I never said any of those things. Not even close!

    I said:

    As for the Conservatives, I welcome any party which steers nutters away from any source of real power and influence.

    That’s not a sweeping statement about the Conservative Party. All third parties perform this function to one degree or another. ACT did it too. The Greens do it especially well.

    I also said:

    But you would think someone like Colin Craig would have the money for a better media advisor than what he appears to have now.

    …which says nothing about Colin Craig or his views other than I think he could do a lot better in getting his message across.

    Finally, I said:

    …people keep forgetting that he is proposing to ban foreign investment in New Zealand, which is far loonier than anything he has said so far about gay people.

    Again, this was a comment on his foreign investment policy, not his articulated views on gay folk.

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  54. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    [Didn't finish my comment above, so here's the rest of it]

    Given that Craig’s Conservative Party is recognised as a party that primarily promotes Christian philosophy as the basis for its political policies, why wouldn’t your comments above, (especially those claiming it is a sign of madness to oppose homosexual marriage), identify you as an anti-Christian bigot and a Progressive ??

    I think anyone who has read my blog, or indeed my comments on this blog, knows that I am opposed to the government redefining marriage, and that I am a Christian who lives an imperfect life, but one saved by the grace of God. Whereas, from what I know of you, Master Baiter, you are not even a professing Christian yourself, am I right? Craig himself says he is not a professing Christian. So calling me an anti-Christian bigot involves some breathtaking mental gymnastics that one almost has to admire. As for calling me a “Progressive”, well… I’m not the one supporting the party that wants to ban foreign investment. This fulla Craig sounds like a protestant Hugo Chavez if you ask me.

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  55. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    Blair – Goldsmith??

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  56. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    BlairM – Redbait often involves “breathtaking mental gymnastics that one almost has to admire” – but mental contortions might be closer to the mark.

    He does sometimes make some worthwhile points but they are inevitably overshadowed by over the top rhetoric and personal attacks that alienate any hope of wider support. His messages are as poorly presented as Shearer’s.

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  57. Redbaiter (8,551 comments) says:

    Blair- You’re an idiot.

    PG- You’re full of the same old pathological lies and distortions. Here’s a fact for you, pulled from the Discus comment voting system used on Whale’s blog:

    Peter George- Comments 90 Votes 491

    Redbaiter- Comments 68 Votes 665

    When you get close to that ratio of approval maybe you can speak out. In the meantime you weird wittering endlessly whining prick, I suggest you STFU.

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  58. Pete George (23,476 comments) says:

    Funny RB, I’m not obsessed with trying to win ‘votes’ like you seem to be. Nor obsessed with trying to pick a few favourable responses from one narrow part of social media.

    Curious why you’re so desperate for approval but spend so much time and effort abusing most people. Another of your many contradictions.

    A warning – if you pin too much hope on the Colin Tea Party you will end up disappointed when all his referenda based policy positions aren’t what you want.

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  59. BlairM (2,321 comments) says:

    Blair- You’re an idiot.

    “Name calling demonstrates a loss of control and destroys intimacy and trust. I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.” – Margaret Thatcher

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