September Public Polls

October 18th, 2012 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Have just published my monthly newsletter summarising the last month. The summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 60, September 2012

 August and September saw six political polls published – four Roy Morgan polls a One News Colmar Brunton poll and a NZ Herald DigiPoll.

The average of the public polls has National 12% ahead of Labour in August and 13% in September. In July it was 16%, so the gap has narrowed. The centre-right had 57 out of 120 seats in August and 60 seats in September. In both months the Maori Party would have held the balance of power.

Australia has seen the Labor Party and Gillard rebound massively. They are now tied with the Coalition in one poll, and Gillard’s approval rating has improved by a net 14%.

In the United States things were going well for the Democrats up until the first debate. Barack Obama remains slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the polls, and further ahead in likely electoral college votes – but the gap has narrowed. His re-election chances on the Intrade market are now 62%. On the plus side, his approval rating has gone positive for the first time, and over the last two months country direction sentiment has improved by a net 15%.

The Republicans remained favoured to keep control in the House (88%) but have plummeted to only 27% probability to gain a majority in the Senate.

In the UK the Conservatives remain 10% behind Labour.

In Canada the Conservatives have are 2% ahead of the NDP, at 33%. The Liberals remain in third place at 22%. But Justin Trudeau (son of Pierre) has just announced his bid for the Liberal leadership, and polls indicate he could boost the Liberals into first place if elected.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to top both.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on, same sex marriage and adoption, school data, breakfasts for schools, the next King, euthanasia, plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please  go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

This graphs is to the end of September, so excludes the polls out in October so far.

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7 Responses to “September Public Polls”

  1. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    National trending lower over the last 18 month, but greens making the gains.

    I’d guess it isn’t a direct process, Labour probably picking up soft National support pretty close to the rate they are shedding left wing support to the greens.

    Labour / green administration looks clear favorite for 2014.

    Gulp.

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  2. ChardonnayGuy (1,207 comments) says:

    As a matter of interest, David, did any of the Australian polls ask how the Coalition would fare if Malcolm Turnbull was reappointed leader?

    [DPF: I understand polls show Turnbull is more popular with the public and Coalition would do better. But he is less popular with his caucus]

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  3. Manolo (13,838 comments) says:

    Labour / green administration looks clear favorite for 2014.

    God bloody help us.
    Labour lite will be in complete disarray, while Smile and Wave disappears to Hawaii. Well done, National Party.

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  4. A Voice Today (4 comments) says:

    Whats the comparison in polling with where Labour sat during this point of its second term to where it won the 3rd term, compared to where National is at?

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  5. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    Your graph ignores New Zealand’s 5th largest party, the Conservatives.
    For the record their polling was as follows.
    TV1 Colmar Brunton 2.0% +1.1%
    NZ Herald DigiPoll 1.4% +0.9%
    Roy Morgan Poll 0.5%, 1.0%, 2.0% and 2.0%

    2.0%
    2.0%
    In all a very good result, The Colmar Brunton poll had the Conservatives ahead of NZ First.

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  6. Mike Readman (363 comments) says:

    Re Canada – do you really want somebody for PM just because he looks good and is married to a former model?

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  7. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Update the polls on this blog?

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